Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Influence of aging, tidal volume, and respiratory rate on Doppler echocardiographic indices of diastolic function in normal male subjects: A quantitative evaluation

Background: Although the influence of respiration on ventricular filling, as evaluated by Doppler technique, and the evaluation of diastolic velocities of mitral valve annulus (MVA), as measured by Doppler tissue imaging (DTI), can provide valuable information for the study of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function, the concomitant effects of aging, tidal volume (TV), and respiratory rate (RR) on these velocities have not been quantitatively investigated. Methods: We evaluated 12 normal male volunteers (Group I) aged 20-26 years (mean: 22.8) and 8 normal subjects aged 41 to 54 years old (mean: 45.9) (Group II). Using DTI we measured peak early (E-a) and late (A(a)) velocities of longitudinal axis expansion at lateral and medial MVA. Doppler mitral and tricuspid flow velocities were measured: peak early (E) and late (A) inflow velocity, early (E-i) and late (A(i)) flow integral, and deceleration time of peak early mitral flow velocity (DT). Respiratory cycles were simultaneously recorded at RR of 9, 12, 15, and 18 cycles/min and TV of 600 and 900 mL during respiration (RESP). Results and conclusions: (1) E, A, and A(i) in MV had negligible change during respiration, but E-i was significantly reduced during inspiration; (2) DT reduced slightly with inspiration, but the change was significant only with TV of 900 mL; (3) an important increase of E in right ventricular flow was observed during inspiration; (4) variations of RR and TV did not significantly influence right and left ventricular inflow in normal subjects, in the conditions of this investigation; (5) a significant increase of E-a at medial MVA was documented during inspiration only in young subjects; (6) a significant decrease of A(a) at medial MVA was observed during inspiration in both groups of volunteers; (7) RR and TV did not influence MVA velocities in young and adult subjects; (8) a consistent reduction in E-a and a significant increase in A(a) were observed with increasing age; (9) these changes were more conspicuous and consistent than those documented in ventricular filling when young and middle-age men are compared, suggesting that the DTI is more sensitive to detect changes in diastolic function; and (10) in addition, these data suggest that, for evaluation of diastolic function, in clinical context, it is not necessary to control rigorously RR or TV.

Effects of progressive exercise during phase I cardiac rehabilitation on the heart rate variability of patients with acute myocardial infarction

Purpose. aEuro integral Heart rate variability (HRV) decreases after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) due to changes in cardiac autonomic balance. The purpose of the present study, therefore, was to evaluate the effects of a progressive exercise protocol used in phase I cardiac rehabilitation on the HRV of patients with post-AMI. Material and methods. aEuro integral Thirty-seven patients who had been admitted to hospital with their first non-complicated AMI were studied. The treated group (TG, n == 21, age == 52 +/-+/- 12 years) performed a 5-day programme of progressive exercise during phase I cardiac rehabilitation, while the control group (CG, n == 16, age == 54 +/-+/- 11 years) performed only respiratory exercises. Instantaneous heart rate (HR) and RR interval were acquired by a HR monitor (Polar (R) A (R) S810i). HRV was analysed by frequency domain methods. Power spectral density was expressed as normalised units (nu) at low (LF) and high (HF) frequencies, and as LF/HF. Results. aEuro integral After 5 days of progressive exercise, the TG showed an increase in HFnu (35.9 +/-+/- 19.5 to 65.19 +/-+/- 25.4) and a decrease in LFnu and LF/HF (58.9 +/-+/- 21.4 to 32.5 +/-+/- 24.1; 3.12 +/-+/- 4.0 to 1.0 +/-+/- 1.5, respectively) in the resting position (p < 0.05). No changes were observed in the CG. Conclusions. aEuro integral A progressive physiotherapeutic exercise programme carried out during phase I cardiac rehabilitation, as supplement to clinical treatment increased vagal and decreased sympathetic cardiac modulation in patients with post-AMI.

Improved case management and continued government investment are needed for malaria eradication in Henan Province, China

A two-year study of malaria control began in Henan Province following cuts in government malaria spending in 1993. Cost data were collected from all government levels and on treatment-seeking (diagnosis, treatment) from 12,325 suspected malaria cases in two endemic counties. The cost burden was found to fall mainly on patients, but using government infrastructure. Good stewardship requires continuing government investment, to at least current levels, along with improved case management. In mainland China, vivax malaria is a significant factor in poverty and economic underdevelopment.

An Economic Analysis of the Legal Concept of Trustees' Power of Investment

Authorised trustee status is a legal concept which has economic implications; one of the major implications is that it assists in the direction of investment funds into particular securities and areas of the economy. The concept of authorised trustee status, while attempting to achieve specific outcomes for the beneficiaries of trusts cannot be relied upon to secure these results. Economic analysis of the role of the trustee maintains that this role is one of portfolio manager; a role which is complex but which is explicable in terms of definable procedures and practices. The role of trustee as portfolio manager is one which requires greater financial knowledge than can be assumed is possessed by all trustees. The trustee as portfolio manager is required to maintain a review of decisions make under powers to invest trust assets. A solution to the problem of authorised trustee status is proposed. The solution takes two parts: the first is the adoption of the prudent person approach but with the codification of duties of the trustee and the explicit listing of the factors that a trustee should consider in using the investment powers. The second part of the proposed solution is to link the investment powers of trustees to the best practice features of securities advisers who are now licensed by a regulatory body, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.

Vitrification with Glutamine Improves Maturation Rate of Vitrified/Warmed Immature Bovine Oocytes

Contents The current study examined the protective effects of l-glutamine and cytochalasin B during vitrification of immature bovine oocytes. Oocyte vitrification solution (PBS supplemented with 10% FCS, 25% EG, 25% DMSO and 0.5 m trehalose) was the vitrification control. Treatments were the addition of 7 mu g/ml cytochalasin B, 80 mm glutamine or both cytochalasin and glutaminine for 30 s. After warming, oocytes were matured in vitro for 24 h, fixed and stained with Hoechst (33342) for nuclear maturation evaluation. l-glutamine improved the vitrified/warmed immature bovine oocytes viability (32.8%), increasing the nuclear maturation rates compared to other treatments and the no treatment vitrified control (17.4%). There was, however, no effect of cytochalasin B on in vitro maturation (14.4%).

Maned wolf survival rate in central Brazil

Although many carnivores are of conservation concern, most are poorly studied. The maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus Illiger, 1811 is the largest South American canid with a broad distribution; however, the largest portion of its range is in the Brazilian Cerrado savannah, where due to intensive agricultural expansion, it is threatened by habitat loss. Maned wolf population trends are virtually unknown. We analyzed radio telemetry data from a 13-year study in Emas National Park, central Brazil, with Burnham`s live recapture/dead recovery models in the program MARK to obtain the first analytically sound estimate of the apparent maned wolf survival rate. We constructed 16 candidate models including variation in survival rate and resighting probability associated with an individual`s sex or age and year of study. Apparent adult survival rate throughout the study ranged from 0.28 (se=0.08) to 0.97 (se=0.06). There was no evidence for sex specificity but strong support for time variation. Model weights supported an age effect and the subadult survival rate was 0.63 (se=0.15). Results indicate similar life patterns for male and female maned wolves and similar mortality risks for adults and subadults in the study area. The observed temporal fluctuations of adult survival rate are important for population dynamics as they decrease average population growth rates. Population dynamics are central for conservation planning and our results are an important step towards a better understanding of the maned wolf`s ecology.

Effect of remifentanil hydrochloride administered via constant rate infusion on the minimum alveolar concentration of isoflurane in cats

Objective-To evaluate the effects of increasing doses of remifentanil hydrochloride administered via constant rate infusion (CRI) on the minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) of isoflurane in cats. Animals-6 healthy adult cats. Procedures-For each cat, 2 experiments were performed (2-week interval). On each study day, anesthesia was induced and maintained with isoflurane; a catheter was placed in a cephalic vein for the administration of lactated Ringer`s solution or remifentanil CRIs, and a catheter was placed in the jugular vein for collection of blood samples for blood gas analyses. On the first study day, individual basal MAC (MAC(Basal)) was determined for each cat. On the second study day, 3 remifentanil CRIs (0.25, 0.5, and 1.0 mu g/kg/min) were administered (in ascending order); for each infusion, at least 30 minutes elapsed before determination of MAC (designated as MAC(R0.25`) MAC(R0.5`) and MACR(R1.0`) respectively). A 15-minute washout period was allowed between CRIs. A control MAC (MAC Control) was determined after the last remifentanil infusion. Results-Mean +/- SD MAC(Basal) and MAC(Control) values at sea level did not differ significantly (1.66 +/- 0.08% and 1.52 +/- 0.21%, respectively). The MAC values determined for each remifentanil CRI did not differ significantly. However, MACR(0.25`) MAC(R0.5`) and MAC(R1.0) were significantly decreased, compared with MAC(Basal`) by 23.4 +/- 79%, 29.8 +/- 8.3%, and 26.0 +/- 9.4%, respectively. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-The 3 doses of remifentanil administered via CRI resulted in a similar degree of isoflurane MAC reduction in adult cats, indicating that a ceiling effect was achieved following administration of the lowest dose. (Am J Vet Res 2009;70:581-588)

Effect of defocused infrared diode laser on salivary flow rate and some salivary parameters of rats

This study aims to investigate whether infrared diode low-level laser therapy (LLLT) increased salivary flow rate and altered pH value, protein concentration, and peroxidase and amylase activities in saliva of rats. Wistar rats were used and divided into three groups. Experimental groups (A and 13) had their parotid, submandibular and sublingual glands submitted to diode laser, 808-nm wavelength, on two consecutive days. The dose results were 4 and 8 J/cm(2), respectively. A red guide light was used to visualize the irradiated area. Group C was irradiated only with red pilot beam and served as control. The saliva samples were collected after each irradiation step (first and second collection days) and 1 week after the first irradiation (seventh day). Statistical analysis was performed, and differences were observed according to different days of salivary collection. The results showed that salivary flow rate for groups A and B was higher on the seventh day if it is compared to data obtained for the first day (p<0.05). LLLT applications on salivary glands are a therapy procedure that requires further studies.