The formal representation of process system modelling assumptions and their implications

In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and methods for checking them are described. It is shown on a simple example how different modelling assumptions act on the model equations and their effect on the differential index of the resulted model is also indicated.

Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

Analysis and implementation of a new constant acceleration subcycling algorithm

An algorithm for explicit integration of structural dynamics problems with multiple time steps is proposed that averages accelerations to obtain subcycle states at a nodal interface between regions integrated with different time steps. With integer time step ratios, the resulting subcycle updates at the interface sum to give the same effect as a central difference update over a major cycle. The algorithm is shown to have good accuracy, and stability properties in linear elastic analysis similar to those of constant velocity subcycling algorithms. The implementation of a generalised form of the algorithm with non-integer time step ratios is presented. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the validity of the dispersion model of hepatic drug elimination when intravascular transit time densities are long-tailed

The dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions uses a single parameter, the dispersion number, to describe the hepatic elimination of xenobiotics and endogenous substances. An implicit a priori assumption of the model is that the transit time density of intravascular indicators is approximated by an inverse Gaussian distribution. This approximation is limited in that the model poorly describes the tail part of the hepatic outflow curves of vascular indicators. A sum of two inverse Gaussian functions is proposed as ail alternative, more flexible empirical model for transit time densities of vascular references. This model suggests that a more accurate description of the tail portion of vascular reference curves yields an elimination rate constant (or intrinsic clearance) which is 40% less than predicted by the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions. The results emphasize the need to accurately describe outflow curves in using them as a basis for determining pharmacokinetic parameters using hepatic elimination models. (C) 1997 Society for Mathematical Biology.

A two-dimensional fuzzy random model of soil pore structure

A new conceptual model for soil pore-solid structure is formalized. Soil pore-solid structure is proposed to comprise spatially abutting elements each with a value which is its membership to the fuzzy set ''pore,'' termed porosity. These values have a range between zero (all solid) and unity (all pore). Images are used to represent structures in which the elements are pixels and the value of each is a porosity. Two-dimensional random fields are generated by allocating each pixel a porosity by independently sampling a statistical distribution. These random fields are reorganized into other pore-solid structural types by selecting parent points which have a specified local region of influence. Pixels of larger or smaller porosity are aggregated about the parent points and within the region of interest by controlled swapping of pixels in the image. This creates local regions of homogeneity within the random field. This is similar to the process known as simulated annealing. The resulting structures are characterized using one-and two-dimensional variograms and functions describing their connectivity. A variety of examples of structures created by the model is presented and compared. Extension to three dimensions presents no theoretical difficulties and is currently under development.

The subcycled Newmark algorithm

The popular Newmark algorithm, used for implicit direct integration of structural dynamics, is extended by means of a nodal partition to permit use of different timesteps in different regions of a structural model. The algorithm developed has as a special case an explicit-explicit subcycling algorithm previously reported by Belytschko, Yen and Mullen. That algorithm has been shown, in the absence of damping or other energy dissipation, to exhibit instability over narrow timestep ranges that become narrower as the number of degrees of freedom increases, making them unlikely to be encountered in practice. The present algorithm avoids such instabilities in the case of a one to two timestep ratio (two subcycles), achieving unconditional stability in an exponential sense for a linear problem. However, with three or more subcycles, the trapezoidal rule exhibits stability that becomes conditional, falling towards that of the central difference method as the number of subcycles increases. Instabilities over narrow timestep ranges, that become narrower as the model size increases, also appear with three or more subcycles. However by moving the partition between timesteps one row of elements into the region suitable for integration with the larger timestep these the unstable timestep ranges become extremely narrow, even in simple systems with a few degrees of freedom. As well, accuracy is improved. Use of a version of the Newmark algorithm that dissipates high frequencies minimises or eliminates these narrow bands of instability. Viscous damping is also shown to remove these instabilities, at the expense of having more effect on the low frequency response.

Virtual plants - integrating architectural and physiological models

Recent advances in computer technology have made it possible to create virtual plants by simulating the details of structural development of individual plants. Software has been developed that processes plant models expressed in a special purpose mini-language based on the Lindenmayer system formalism. These models can be extended from their architectural basis to capture plant physiology by integrating them with crop models, which estimate biomass production as a consequence of environmental inputs. Through this process, virtual plants will gain the ability to react to broad environmental conditions, while crop models will gain a visualisation component. This integration requires the resolution of the fundamentally different time scales underlying the approaches. Architectural models are usually based on physiological time; each time step encompasses the same amount of development in the plant, without regard to the passage of real time. In contrast, physiological models are based in real time; the amount of development in a time step is dependent on environmental conditions during the period. This paper provides a background on the plant modelling language, then describes how widely-used concepts of thermal time can be implemented to resolve these time scale differences. The process is illustrated using a case study. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Model for Differential Nursing Diagnosis of Alterations in Urinary Elimination Based on Fuzzy Logic

Nursing diagnoses associated with alterations of urinary elimination require different interventions, Nurses, who are not specialists, require support to diagnose and manage patients with disturbances of urine elimination. The aim of this study was to present a model based on fuzzy logic for differential diagnosis of alterations in urinary elimination, considering nursing diagnosis approved by the North American Nursing Diagnosis Association, 2001-2002. Fuzzy relations and the maximum-minimum composition approach were used to develop the system. The model performance was evaluated with 195 cases from the database of a previous study, resulting in 79.0% of total concordance and 19.5% of partial concordance, when compared with the panel of experts. Total discordance was observed in only three cases (1.5%). The agreement between model and experts was excellent (kappa = 0.98, P < .0001) or substantial (kappa = 0.69, P < .0001) when considering the overestimative accordance (accordance was considered when at least one diagnosis was equal) and the underestimative discordance (discordance was considered when at least one diagnosis was different), respectively. The model herein presented showed good performance and a simple theoretical structure, therefore demanding few computational resources.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata

The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short-and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number.

A Dynamical Modeling to Study the Adaptive Immune System and the Influence of Antibodies in the Immune Memory

Immunological systems have been an abundant inspiration to contemporary computer scientists. Problem solving strategies, stemming from known immune system phenomena, have been successfully applied to chall enging problems of modem computing. Simulation systems and mathematical modeling are also beginning use to answer more complex immunological questions as immune memory process and duration of vaccines, where the regulation mechanisms are not still known sufficiently (Lundegaard, Lund, Kesmir, Brunak, Nielsen, 2007). In this article we studied in machina a approach to simulate the process of antigenic mutation and its implications for the process of memory. Our results have suggested that the durability of the immune memory is affected by the process of antigenic mutation.and by populations of soluble antibodies in the blood. The results also strongly suggest that the decrease of the production of antibodies favors the global maintenance of immune memory.

Decay chain differential equations: Solution through matrix algebra

A matricial method to solve the decay chain differential equations system is presented. The quantity of each nuclide in the chain at a time t may be evaluated by analytical expressions obtained in a simple way using recurrence relations. This method may be applied to problems of radioactive buildup and decay and can be easily implemented computationally. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella

The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy between results and official notification data before vaccination era leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80% of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total number of infections compared to notification data.

Dynamics and Control of Stray Dog Populations

The population dynamics of stray dogs is simulated to assess the effects of sterilization and euthanasia. From simulations representing less than 5 years, sterilization is less efficient than euthanasia to reduce the stray dog population, considering similar rates, but the total number of sterilized dogs is less than the total number of euthanized dogs per km(2) per year. Over 20 years, both strategies have similar efficiency. Beyond a certain rate of dog abandonment, both strategies are inefficient.

Three-point boundary value problems for second-order, ordinary, differential equations

We establish existence results for solutions to three-point boundary value problems for nonlinear, second-order, ordinary differential equations with nonlinear boundary conditions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.