Disturbance, response, and persistence in self-organized forested communities: Analysis of robustness and resilience in five communities in Southern Indiana

We develop an analytic framework for the analysis of robustness in social-ecological systems (SESs) over time. We argue that social robustness is affected by the disturbances that communities face and the way they respond to them. Using Ostrom's ontological framework for SESs, we classify the major factors influencing the disturbances and responses faced by five Indiana intentional communities over a 15-year time frame. Our empirical results indicate that operational and collective-choice rules, leadership and entrepreneurship, monitoring and sanctioning, economic values, number of users, and norms/social capital are key variables that need to be at the core of future theoretical work on robustness of self-organized systems. © 2010 by the author(s).

AASK - Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge: A database of human experience in evacuation, derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data in order to (a) identify the key processes and factors associated with evacuation, (b) quantify variables and parameters associated with the identified factors/processes and finally (c) validate the models. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise from three major data sources in order to address these issues. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from one of these sources - aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (aircraft accident statistics and knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK comprises four component sub-databases. These consist of the ACCIDENT (crash details), FLIGHT ATTENDANT (observations and actions of the flight attendants), FATALS (details concerning passenger fatalities) and PAX (observations and accounts from individual passengers) databases. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 4 April 1977 to 6 August 1995, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. In addition to aiding the development of aircraft evacuation models, AASK is also being used to challenge some of the myths which proliferate in the aviation safety industry such as, passenger exit selection during evacuation, nature and frequency of seat jumping, speed of passenger response and group dynamics. AASK can also be used to aid in the development of a more comprehensive approach to conducting post accident interviews, and will eventually be used to store the data directly.

The AASK database V4.0: aircraft accident statistics and knowledge. A database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents

This paper describes the AASK database. The AASK database is unique as it is a record of human behaviour during survivable aviation accidents. The AASK database is compiled from interview data compiled by agencies such as the NTSB and the AAIB. The database can be found on the website http://fseg.gre.ac.uk

CAA paper 2006/01: a database to record human experience of evacuation in aviation accidents: the aircraft accident statistics and knowledge database (AASK)

This report concerns the development of the AASK V4.0 database (CAA Project 560/SRG/R+AD). AASK is the Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database, which is a repository of survivor accounts from aviation accidents. Its main purpose is to store observational and anecdotal data from interviews of the occupants involved in aircraft accidents. The AASK database has wide application to aviation safety analysis, being a source of factual data regarding the evacuation process. It is also key to the development of aircraft evacuation models such as airEXODUS, where insight into how people actually behave during evacuation from survivable aircraft crashes is required. With support from the UK CAA (Project 277/SRG/R&AD), AASK V3.0 was developed. This was an on-line prototype system available over the internet to selected users and included a significantly increased number of passenger accounts compared with earlier versions, the introduction of cabin crew accounts, the introduction of fatality information and improved functionality through the seat plan viewer utility. The most recently completed AASK project (Project 560/SRG/R+AD) involved four main components: a) analysis of the data collected in V3.0; b) continued collection and entry of data into AASK; c) maintenance and functional development of the AASK database; and d) user feedback survey. All four components have been pursued and completed in this two-year project. The current version developed in the last year of the project is referred to as AASK V4.0. This report provides summaries of the work done and the results obtained in relation to the project deliverables.

Mathematical prerequisites for learning statistics in Psychology: Assessing core skills of numeracy and mathematical reasoning among undergraduates.

This study sought to extend earlier work by Mulhern and Wylie (2004) to investigate a UK-wide sample of psychology undergraduates. A total of 890 participants from eight universities across the UK were tested on six broadly defined components of mathematical thinking relevant to the teaching of statistics in psychology - calculation, algebraic reasoning, graphical interpretation, proportionality and ratio, probability and sampling, and estimation. Results were consistent with Mulhern and Wylie's (2004) previously reported findings. Overall, participants across institutions exhibited marked deficiencies in many aspects of mathematical thinking. Results also revealed significant gender differences on calculation, proportionality and ratio, and estimation. Level of qualification in mathematics was found to predict overall performance. Analysis of the nature and content of errors revealed consistent patterns of misconceptions in core mathematical knowledge , likely to hamper the learning of statistics.

The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students’ (mis-)conceptions of probability

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists’ prediction who propose that education reduces misconceptions in general. They also predict that students with higher cognitive ability and higher need for cognition are less susceptible to biases. In Experiments 1 and 2 we found that the equiprobability bias increased with statistics education, and it was negatively correlated with students’ cognitive abilities. The representativeness heuristic was mostly unaffected by education, and it was also unrelated to cognitive abilities. In Experiment 3 we demonstrated through an instruction manipulation (by asking participants to think logically vs. rely on their intuitions) that the reason for these differences was that these biases originated in different cognitive processes.

Contribution to the geology of Thailand and implications for the geodynamic evolution of Southeast Asia

Abstract The purpose of this study is to unravel the geodynamic evolution of Thailand and, from that, to extend the interpretation to the rest of Southeast Asia. The methodology was based in a first time on fieldwork in Northern Thailand and Southernmost Myanmar, using a multidisciplinary approach, and then on the compilation and re-interpretation, in a plate tectonics point of view, of existing data about the whole Southeast Asia. The main results concern the Nan-Uttaradit suture, the Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt and the proposition of a new location for the Palaeotethys suture. This led to the establishment of a new plate tectonic model for the geodynamic evolution of Southeast Asia, implying the existence new terranes (Orang Laut and the redefinition of Shan-Thai) and the role of the Palaeopacific Ocean in the tectonic development of the area. The model proposed here considers the Palaeotethys suture as located along the Tertiary Mae Yuam Fault, which represents the divide between the Cimmerian Sibumasu terrane and the Indochina-derived Shan-Thai block. The term Shan-Thai, previously used to define the Cimmerian area (when the Palaeotethys suture was thought to represented by the Nan-Uttaradit suture), was redefined here by keeping its geographical location within the Shan States of Myanmar and Central-Northern Thailand, but attributing it an East Asian Origin. Its detachment from Indochina was the result of the Early Permian opening of the Nan basin. The Nan basin closed during the Middle Triassic, before the deposition of Carnian-Norian molasse. The modalities of the closure of the basin imply a first phase of Middle Permian obduction, followed by final eastwards subduction. The Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt consists of scattered basaltic rocks erupted at least during the Viséan in an extensional continental intraplate setting, on the Shan-Thai part of the Indochina block. The Viséan age was established by the dating of limestone stratigraphically overlying the basalts. In several localities of the East Asian Continent, coeval extensional features occur, possibly implying one or more Early Carboniferous extensional events at a regional scale. These events occurred either due to the presence of a mantle plume or to the roll-back of the Palaeopacific Ocean, subducting beneath Indochina and South China, or both. The Palaeopacific Ocean is responsible, during the Early Permian, for the opening of the Song Ma and Poko back-arcs (Vietnam) with the consequent detachment of the Orang Laut Terranes (Eastern Vietnam, West Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). The Late Triassic/Early Jurassic closure of the Eastern Palaeotethys is considered as having taken place by subduction beneath its southern margin (Gondwana), due to the absence of Late Palaeozoic arc magmatism on its northern (Indochinese) margin and the presence of volcanism on the Cimmerian blocks (Mergui, Lhasa). Résumé Le but de cette étude est d'éclaircir l'évolution géodynamique de la Thaïlande et, à partir de cela, d'étendre l'interprétation au reste de l'Asie du Sud-Est. La méthodologie utilisée est basée dans un premier temps sur du travail de terrain en Thaïlande du nord et dans l'extrême sud du Myanmar, en se basant sur une approche pluridisciplinaire. Dans un deuxième temps, la compilation et la réinterprétation de données préexistantes sur l'Asie du Sud-est la été faite, dans une optique basée sur la tectonique des plaques. Les principaux résultats de ce travail concernent la suture de Nan-Uttaradit, la « Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt» et la proposition d'une nouvelle localité pour la suture de la Paléotethys. Ceci a conduit à l'établissement d'un nouveau modèle pour l'évolution géodynamique de l'Asie du Sud-est, impliquant l'existence de nouveaux terranes (Orang Laut et Shan-Thai redéfini) et le rôle joué par le Paléopacifique dans le développement tectonique de la région. Le modèle présenté ici considère que la suture de la Paléotethys est située le long de la faille Tertiaire de Mae Yuam, qui représente la séparation entre le terrain Cimmérien de Sibumasu et le bloc de Shan-Thai, d'origine Indochinoise. Le terme Shan-Thai, anciennement utilise pour définir le bloc Cimmérien (quand la suture de la Paléotethys était considérée être représentée par la suture de Nan-Uttaradit), a été redéfini ici en maintenant sa localisation géographique dans les états Shan du Myanmar et la Thaïlande nord-centrale, mais en lui attribuant une origine Est Asiatique. Son détachement de l'Indochine est le résultat de l'ouverture du basin de Nan au Permien Inférieur. Le basin de Nan s'est fermé pendant le Trias Moyen, avant le dépôt de molasse Carnienne-Norienne. Les modalités de fermeture du basin invoquent une première phase d'obduction au Permien Moyen, suivie par une subduction finale vers l'est. La "Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt" consiste en des basaltes éparpillés qui ont mis en place au moins pendant le Viséen dans un contexte extensif intraplaque continental sur la partie de l'Indochine correspondant au bloc de Shan-Thai. L'âge Viséen a été établi sur la base de la datation de calcaires qui surmontent stratigraphiquement les basaltes. Dans plusieurs localités du continent Est Asiatique, des preuves d'extension plus ou moins contemporaines ont été retrouvées, ce qui implique l'existence d'une ou plusieurs phases d'extension au Carbonifère Inférieur a une échelle régionale. Ces événements sont attribués soit à la présence d'un plume mantellique, ou au rollback du Paléopacifique, qui subductait sous l'Indochine et la Chine Sud, soit les deux. Pendant le Permien inférieur, le Paléopacifique est responsable pour l'ouverture des basins d'arrière arc de Song Ma et Poko (Vietnam), induisant le détachement des Orang Laut Terranes (Est Vietnam, Ouest Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). La fermeture de la Paléotethys Orientale au Trias Supérieur/Jurassique Inférieur est considérée avoir eu lieu par subduction sous sa marge méridionale (Gondwana), à cause de l'absence de magmatisme d'arc sur sa marge nord (Indochinoise) et de la présence de volcanisme sur les blocs Cimmériens de Lhassa et Sibumasu (Mergui). Résumé large public L'histoire géologique de l'Asie du Sud-est depuis environ 430 millions d'années a été déterminée par les collisions successives de plusieurs continents les uns avec les autres. Il y a environ 430 millions d'années, au Silurien, un grand continent appelé Gondwana, a commencé à se «déchirer» sous l'effet des contraintes tectoniques qui le tiraient. Cette extension a provoqué la rupture du continent et l'ouverture d'un grand océan, appelé Paléotethys, éloignant les deux parties désormais séparées. C'est ainsi que le continent Est Asiatique, composé d'une partie de la Chine actuelle, de la Thaïlande, du Myanmar, de Sumatra, du Vietnam et de Bornéo a été entraîné avec le bord (marge) nord de la Paléotethys, qui s'ouvrait petit à petit. Durant le Carbonifère Supérieur, il y a environ 300 millions d'années, le sud du Gondwana subissait une glaciation, comme en témoigne le dépôt de sédiments glaciaires dans les couches de cet âge. Au même moment le continent Est Asiatique se trouvait à des latitudes tropicales ou équatoriales, ce qui permettait le dépôt de calcaires contenant différents fossiles de foraminifères d'eau chaude et de coraux. Durant le Permien Inférieur, il y a environ 295 millions d'années, la Paléotethys Orientale, qui était un relativement vieil océan avec une croûte froide et lourde, se refermait. La croûte océanique a commencé à s'enfoncer, au sud, sous le Gondwana. C'est ce que l'on appelle la subduction. Ainsi, le Gondwana s'est retrouvé en position de plaque supérieure, par rapport à la Paléotethys qui, elle, était en plaque inférieure. La plaque inférieure en subductant a commencé à reculer. Comme elle ne pouvait pas se désolidariser de la plaque supérieure, en reculant elle l'a tirée. C'est le phénomène du «roll-back ». Cette traction a eu pour effet de déchirer une nouvelle fois le Gondwana, ce qui a résulté en la création d'un nouvel Océan, la Neotethys. Cet Océan en s'ouvrant a déplacé une longue bande continentale que l'on appelle les blocs Cimmériens. La Paléotethys était donc en train de se fermer, la Neotethys de s'ouvrir, et entre deux les blocs Cimmériens se rapprochaient du Continent Est Asiatique. Pendant ce temps, le continent Est Asiatique était aussi soumis à des tensions tectoniques. L'Océan Paléopacifique, à l'est de celui-ci, était aussi en train de subducter. Cette subduction, par roll-back, a déchiré le continent en détachant une ligne de microcontinents appelés ici « Orang Laut Terranes », séparés du continent par deux océans d'arrière arc : Song Ma et Poko. Ceux-ci sont composés de Taiwan, Palawan, Bornéo ouest, Vietnam oriental, et la partie occidentale de Sumatra. Un autre Océan s'est ouvert pratiquement au même moment dans le continent Est Asiatique : l'Océan de Nan qui, en s'ouvrant, a détaché un microcontinent appelé Shan-Thai. La fermeture de l'Océan de Nan, il y a environ 230 millions d'années a resolidarisé Shan-Thai et le continent Est Asiatique et la trace de cet événement est aujourd'hui enregistrée dans la suture (la cicatrice de l'Océan) de Nan-Uttaradit. La cause de l'ouverture de l'Océan de Nan peut soit être due à la subduction du Paléopacifique, soit aux fait que la subduction de la Paléotethys tirait le continent Est Asiatique par le phénomène du « slab-pull », soit aux deux. La subduction du Paléopacifique avait déjà crée de l'extension dans le continent Est Asiatique durant le Carbonifère Inférieur (il y a environ 340-350 millions d'années) en créant des bassins et du volcanisme, aujourd'hui enregistré en différents endroits du continent, dont la ceinture volcanique de Chiang Mai, étudiée ici. A la fin du Trias, la Paléotethys se refermait complètement, et le bloc Cimmérien de Sibumasu entrait en collision avec le continent Est Asiatique. Comme c'est souvent le cas avec les grands océans, il n'y a pas de suture proprement dite, avec des fragments de croûte océanique, pour témoigner de cet évènement. Celui-ci est visible grâce à la différence entre les sédiments du Carbonifère Supérieur et du Permieñ Inférieur de chaque domaine : dans le domaine Cimmérien ils sont de type glaciaire alors que dans le continent Est Asiatique ils témoignent d'un climat tropical. Les océans de Song Ma et Poko se sont aussi refermés au Trias, mais eux ont laissé des sutures visibles

An analysis of the photoelectron and Rydberg states of formaldehyde /|nby Carol R. Lessard. -- 260 St. Catharines [Ont.] : Dept. of Chemistry, Brock University,

Although it is generally accepted that Rydberg orbitals are very large and diffuse, and that electron promotion to a Rydberg orbital is not too different from ionization of the molecule, analysis of the two types of transitions proves otherwise. The photoelectron spectrum of the 2B2 (n) ion has very little vibrational structure attached to the origin band; on the other hand, several of the Rydberg transitions which involve the promotion of the n(bZ) electron exhibit a great deal of vibrational activity. In particular, the members of the n=3 Rydberg\ series interact with and perturb each other through pseudo-Jahn-Teller vibronic coupling. The vacuum ultraviolet spectrum contains a number of features which are difficult to explain, and two unusually sharp bands can only be identified as representing some form of electron promotion in formaldehyde.

Reduced local energy calculations on X¹Sigmaâ ½gHâ and 1¹S He /|nGerald F. Thomas. -- 260 St. Catharines [Ont.] : Dept. of Chemistry, Brock University,

The one-electron reduced local energy function, t ~ , is introduced and has the property < tL)=(~>. It is suggested that the accuracy of SL reflects the local accuracy of an approximate wavefunction. We establish that <~~>~ <~2,> and present a bound formula, E~ , which is such that where Ew is Weinstein's lower bound formula to the ground state. The nature of the bound is not guaranteed but for sufficiently accurate wavefunctions it will yield a lower bound. ,-+ 1'S I I Applications to X LW Hz. and ne are presented.

The crystal and molecular structure of thiamine hydroiodide /|nWilliam Edward Lee. -- 260 St. Catharines [Ont.] : Dept. of Chemistry, Brock University,

The x-ray crystal structure of thiamine hydroiodide,C1ZH18N40S12' has been determined. The unit cell parameters are a = 13.84 ± 0.03, o b = 7.44 ± 0.01, c = 20.24 ± 0.02 A, 8 = 120.52 ± 0.07°, space group P2/c, z = 4. A total of 1445 reflections having ,2 > 2o(F2), 26 < 40° were collected on a Picker four-circle diffractometer with MoKa radiation by the 26 scan technique. The structure was solved by the heavy atom method. The iodine and sulphur atoms were refined anisotropically; only the positional parameters were refined for the hydrogen atoms. Successive least squares cycles yielded an unweighted R factor of 0.054. The site of protonation of the pyrimidine ring is the nitrogen opposite the amino group. The overall structure conforms very closely to the structures of other related thiamine compounds. The bonding surrounding the iodine atoms is distorted tetrahedral. The iodine atoms make several contacts with surrounding atoms most of them at or near the van der Waal's distances A thiaminium tetrachlorocobaltate salt was produced whose molecular and crystal structure was j~dged to be isomorphous to thiaminium tetrachlorocadmate.

Studies on the Nature and Chemistry of Sediments and Water of Periyar and Chalakudy Rivers, Kerala, India

The present study is an attempt to address issues related to sediment properties like texture, mineralogy and geochemistry as well as water quality of two important rivers of central Kerala-the Periyar and the Chalakudy rivers. The main objectives of the study are to investigate the textural and mineralogical characteristics as well as transportation and depositional mechanisms of the sediments of Periyar and Chalakudy rivers, to find out the geochemical variability of organic carbon, phosphorus and certain major (Na,K,Ca and Mg) and minor/trace(Mn,Pb,Ni,Cr, and Zn) elements in the bulk sediments and mud fraction of these rivers, to evaluate the status of heavy metal pollution registered in the sediments of these rivers, to assess the physico-chemical characteristics and water quality of Periyar and Chalakudy rivers and to estimate the dissolved nutrient flux through the Periyar and Chalakudy rivers into the receiving coastal waters. The granulometric characteristics as well as statistical parameters of the sediments of Periyar and Chalakudy rivers depend on the flow pattern controlled by the gradient of the terrain. Compared to Periyar, fluctuations in the dispersal of particles are more in Chalakudy river. In Periyar river, the P and Fe in bulk sediments show a positive correlation with C-org, while in Chalakudy river, both the elements are related to THM concentration. In general, C-org, Fe and P Shows an increasing trend downstream. In Periyar river, the P and Fe in bulk sediments show a positive correlation with C-org, while in Chalakudy river, both the elements are related to THM concentration. Among these two rivers, the pollution of water is several fold higher in Periyar river due to influx due to influx of considerable quantity of liquid and solid wastes of industrial/domestic/urban origin. Nutrient analysis reveals 2-3 times increase in N and P during monsoon season whereas SiO2-Si shows a decreasing trend.

Hydrogeological, Geophysical And Geochemical Studies In Parts Of Coastal And Midland Areas, Central Kerala - A Gis Approach

The present study deals with the different hydrogeological characteristics of the coastal region of central Kerala and a comparative analysis with corresponding hard rock terrain. The coastal regions lie in areas where the aquifer systems discharge groundwater ultimately into the sea. Groundwater development in such regions will require a precise understanding of the complex mechanism of the saline and fresh water relationship, so that the withdrawals are so regulated as to avoid situations leading to upcoming of the saline groundwater bodies as also to prevent migration of sea water ingress further inland. Coastal tracts of Kerala are formed by several drainage systems. Thick pile of semi-consolidated and consolidated sediments from Tertiary to Recent age underlies it. These sediments comprise phreatic and confined aquifer systems. The corresponding hard rock terrain is encountered with laterites and underlined by the Precambrian metamorphic rocks. Supply of water from hard rock terrain is rather limited. This may be due to the small pore size, low degree of interconnectivity and low extent of weathering of the country rocks. The groundwater storage is mostly controlled by the thickness and hydrological properties of the weathered zone and the aquifer geometry. The over exploitation of groundwater, beyond the ‘safe yield’ limit, cause undesirable effects like continuous reduction in groundwater levels, reduction in river flows, reduction in wetland surface, degradation of groundwater quality and many other environmental problems like drought, famine etc.