Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Nitrogen budget for the Oldman River Basin, southern Alberta, Canada

The Oldman River Basin (OMRB), located in southern Alberta (Canada), with an area of 28,200 km2, is mainly forested in its western part and is used for intensive agriculture in its eastern part. The objective of this paper is to estimate the nitrogen (N) budget for the Oldman River Basin as a whole and its sub-basins, and to discuss differences in the N budget between various sub-basins. Better knowledge of the N budget in this watershed may be also utilized for understanding N dynamics in similar watersheds within semi-arid climatic regions. The model used is a mass balance spreadsheet model that takes into account N inputs and N export through surface water. During the last 120 years, anthropogenic N inputs to the OMRB have increased circa 40 fold. By the end of the 20th century, the OMRB received an annualN input of about 5174 kg N km-2 yr-1, whereas only about 25 kg N km-2 yr-1 were exported via riverine flow. For the sub-basins, annual N inputs ranged from 2516 to 19011 kg N km-2 yr-1, and annual N export via riverine flows varied between 6 and 277 kg N km-2 yr-1. Over 85% of total N inputs to the OMRB are due to anthropogenic activities, including manure (55%), synthetic fertilizer (27%), and N fixation on agricultural lands (4%). Sewage accounted for less than 1%, and N inputs from atmospheric deposition and fixation in forests represented 6 and 8% respectively. Despite increasing anthropogenic N inputs, N export with riverine flow currently accounts for only 1% of the inputs, indicating thatmost of theNinputs are currently retained in the OMRB or are re-emitted into the atmosphere.

Effects of Constraint Errors on Parallel Manipulators with Decoupled Motion

From perspective of structure synthesis, certain special geometric constraints, such as joint axes intersecting at one point or perpendicular to each other, are necessary in realizing the end-effector motion of kinematically decoupled parallel manipulators (PMs) along individual motion axes. These requirements are difficult to achieve in the actual system due to assembly errors and manufacturing tolerances. Those errors that violate the geometric constraint requirements are termed “constraint errors”. The constraint errors usually are more troublesome than other manipulator errors because the decoupled motion characteristics of the manipulator may no longer exist and the decoupled kinematic models will be rendered useless due to these constraint errors. Therefore, identification and prevention of these constraint errors in initial design and manufacturing stage are of great significance. In this article, three basic types of constraint errors are identified, and an approach to evaluate the effects of constraint errors on decoupling characteristics of PMs is proposed. This approach is illustrated by a 6-DOF PM with decoupled translation and rotation. The results show that the proposed evaluation method is effective to guide design and assembly.

Integrating Human Rights? Socio-Economic Rights and Budget Analysis

This article explores an opportunity for mutual learning between the fields of human rights law and economic analysis. Specifically it considers how economic techniques might be used to appraise public expenditure in line with international obligations arising from the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights 1966 (ICESCR). Our argument is that such tools do have the potential to contribute to this aim, but that embedding them within government budget processes through “human rights mainstreaming” may prove problematic in practice. We therefore suggest, as part of a broader strategy which includes judicial enforcement, that mainstreaming initiatives and budget analysis can be useful as complementary tools for the full realisation of all human rights.

Northern Ireland: The Politics of Constraint

The article surveys the interrupted experience of devolution in Northern Ireland since 1999 and draws a number of comparisons between the first devolved Assembly and Executive and their successors elected in 2007. It underlines the significance of the changed political, electoral and paramilitary context in the period leading up to the 2007 Assembly election which, together with a number of procedural changes effected by the 2006 St Andrews Agreement, enabled the restoration of power-sharing devolution to occur. Against the background of its legislative and policy record and the wider altered state of Northern Ireland, it concludes that the contrived consociational model of governance can work, up to a point, but perhaps as much because of the politics of constraint than consociationalism's much vaunted promise to reflect and engender the politics of accommodation.

Image segmentation based on multi-scan constraint satisfaction neural network

A novel image segmentation method based on a constraint satisfaction neural network (CSNN) is presented. The new method uses CSNN-based relaxation but with a modified scanning scheme of the image. The pixels are visited with more distant intervals and wider neighborhoods in the first level of the algorithm. The intervals between pixels and their neighborhoods are reduced in the following stages of the algorithm. This method contributes to the formation of more regular segments rapidly and consistently. A cluster validity index to determine the number of segments is also added to complete the proposed method into a fully automatic unsupervised segmentation scheme. The results are compared quantitatively by means of a novel segmentation evaluation criterion. The results are promising.