中国大中型气田天然气成藏物理化学模拟研究

Natural gas pays more important role in the society as clean fuel. Natural gas exploration has been enhanced in recent years in many countries. It also has prospective future in our country through "85" and "95" national research. Many big size gas fields have been discovered in different formations in different basins such as lower and upper Paleozoic in Erdos basin, Tertiary system in Kuche depression in Tarim basin, Triassic system in east of Sichuan basin. Because gas bearing basins had been experienced multiple tectogenesis. The characteristics of natural gases usually in one gas field are that they have multiple source rocks and are multiple maturities and formed in different ages. There has most difficult to research on the gas-rock correlation and mechanism of gas formation. Develop advanced techniques and methods and apply them to solve above problems is necessary. The research is focused on the critical techniques of geochemistry and physical simulation of gas-rock correlation and gas formation. The lists in the following are conclusions through research and lots of experiments. I 8 advanced techniques have been developed or improved about gas-rock correlation and gas migration, accumulation and formation. A series of geochemistry techniques has been developed about analyzing inclusion enclave. They are analyzing gas and liquid composition and biomarker and on-line individual carbon isotope composition in inclusion enclave. These techniques combing the inclusion homogeneous temperature can be applied to study on gas-rock correlation directly and gas migration, filling and formation ages. Technique of on-line determination individual gas carbon isotope composition in kerogen and bitumen thermal pyrolysis is developed. It is applied to determine the source of natural is kerogen thermal degradation or oil pyrolysis. Method of on-line determination individual gas carbon isotope composition in rock thermal simulation has being improved. Based on the "95"former research, on-line determination individual gas carbon isotope composition in different type of maceral and rocks thermal pyrolys is has been determined. The conclusion is that carbon isotope composition of benzene and toluene in homogenous texture kerogen thermal degradation is almost same at different maturity. By comparison, that in mixture type kerogen thermal pyrolysis jumps from step to step with the changes of maturity. This conclusion is a good proof of gas-rock dynamic correlation. 3. Biomarker of rock can be determined directly through research. It solves the problems such as long period preparing sample, light composition losing and sample contamination etc. It can be applied to research the character of source rock and mechanism of source rock expulsion and the path of hydrocarbon migration etc. 4. The process of hydrocarbon dynamic generation in source rock can be seen at every stage applying locating observation and thermal simulation of ESEM. The mechanism of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion in source rock is discussed according to the experiments. This technique is advanced in the world. 5. A sample injection system whose character is higher vacuum, lower leaks and lower blank has been built up to analyze inert gas. He,Ar,Kr and Xe can be determined continuously on one instrument and one injection. This is advanced in domestic. 7. Quality and quantity analysis of benzene ring compounds and phenolic compounds and determination of organic acid and aqueous gas analysis are applied to research the relationship between compounds in formation water and gas formation. This is another new idea to study the gas-rock correlation and gas formation. 8. Inclusion analysis data can be used to calculate the Paleo-fluid density, Paleo-geothermal gradient and Paleo-geopressure gradient and then to calculate the Paleo-fluid potential. It's also a new method to research the direction of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. 9. Equipment of natural gas formation simulation is produced during the research to probe how the physical properties of rock affect the gas migration and accumulation and what efficiency of gas migrate and factors of gas formation and the models of different type of migration are. II study is focused on that if the source rocks of lower Paleozoic generated hydrocarbon and what the source rocks of weathered formation gas pool and the mechanism of gas formation are though many advanced techniques application. There are four conclusions. 1.The maturity of Majiagou formation source rocks is higher in south than that in north. There also have parts of the higher maturity in middle and east. Anomalous thermal pays important role in big size field formation in middle of basin. 2. The amount of gas generation in high-over maturity source rocks in lower Paleozoic is lager than that of most absorption of source rocks. Lower Paleozoic source rocks are effective source rocks. Universal bitumen exists in Ordovician source rocks to prove that Ordovician source rocks had generated hydrocarbon. Bitumen has some attribution to the middle gas pool formation. 3. Comprehensive gas-rock correlation says that natural gases of north, west, south of middle gas field of basin mainly come from lower Paleozoic source rocks. The attribution ratio of lower Paleozoic source rocks is 60%-70%. Natural gases of other areas mainly come from upper Paleozoic. The attribution ratio of upper Paleozoic source rocks is 70%. 4. Paleozoic gases migration phase of Erdos basin are also interesting. The relative abundance of gasoline aromatic is quite low especially toluene that of which is divided by that of methyl-cyclohexane is less than 0.2 in upper Paleozoic gas pool. The migration phase of upper Paleozoic gas may be aqueous phase. By comparison, the relative abundance of gasoline aromatic is higher in lower Paleozoic gas. The distribution character of gasoline gas is similar with that in source rock thermal simulation. The migration phase of it may be free phase. IH Comprehensive gas-rock correlation is also processed in Kuche depression Tarim basin. The mechanism of gas formation is probed and the gas formation model has been built up. Four conclusions list below. 1. Gases in Kuche depression come from Triassic-Jurassic coal-measure source rocks. They are high-over maturity. Comparatively, the highest maturity area is Kelasu, next is Dabei area, Yinan area. 2. Kerogen thermal degradation is main reason of the dry gas in Kuche depression. Small part of dry gas comes from oil pyrolysis. VI 3.The K12 natural gas lays out some of hydro-gas character. Oil dissolved in the gas. Hydro-gas is also a factor making the gas drier and carbon isotope composition heavier. 4. The mechanism and genesis of KL2 gas pool list as below. Overpressure has being existed in Triassic-Jurassic source rocks since Keche period. Natural gases were expulsed by episode style from overpressure source rocks. Hetero-face was main migration style of gas, oil and water at that time. The fluids transferred the pressure of source rocks when they migrated and then separated when they got in reservoir. After that, natural gas migrated up and accumulated and formed with the techno-genesis. Tectonic extrusion made the natural gas overpressure continuously. When the pressure was up to the critical pressure, the C6-C7 composition in natural gas changed. The results were that relative abundance of alkane and aromatic decreased while cycloalkane and isoparaffin increased. There was lots of natural gas filling during every tectonic. The main factors of overpressure of natural gas were tectonic extrusion and fluid transferring pressure of source rocks. Well preservation was also important in the KL2 gas pool formation. The reserves of gas can satisfy the need of pipeline where is from west to east. IV A good idea of natural gas migration and accumulation modeling whose apparent character is real core and formation condition is suggested to model the physical process of gas formation. Following is the modeling results. 1. Modeling results prove that the gas accumulation rule under cap layer and gas fraction on migration path. 2. Natural gas migration as free phase is difficult in dense rock. 3. Natural gases accumulated easily in good physical properties reservoirs where are under the plugging layer. Under the condition of that permeability of rock is more than 1 * 10~(-3)μm~(-1), the more better the physical properties and the more bigger pore of rock, the more easier the gas accumulation in there. On the contrary, natural gas canonly migrate further to accumulate in good physical properties of rock. 4. Natural gas migrate up is different from that down. Under the same situation, the amount of gas migration up is lager than that of gas migration down and the distance of migration up is 3 times as that of migration down. 5. After gas leaks from dense confining layer, the ability of its dynamic plug-back decreased apparently. Gas lost from these arils easily. These confining layer can confine again only after geology condition changes. 6. Water-wetted and capillary-blocking rocks can't block water but gases generally. The result is that water can migrate continuously through blocking rocks but the gases stay under the blocking rocks then form in there. The experiments have proved the formation model of deep basin gas.

胶东地区三类金矿成矿系统地质地球化学及动力学

The East Shandong gold province is located on the southeastern margin of the North China Craton and features uplift in the north and depression in the south. The uplift area is made up of the Archaean Jiaodong Group, the Proterozoic Jingshan Group and Yanshannian granites. Most gold deposits in the uplift area are spatially associated with the Yanshannian granites. Two types of gold mineralization occur in the region: the quartz-vein type hosted in the Linglong granite suite, and the shear zone type hosted by either the Linglong granite or Guojialing granitoid suites. The mineralization ages are 113～126 Ma. The southern part of East Shandong contains the Mesozoic Jiaolai basin, which formed during regional extension. The basin is bounded by the Wulian-Rongcheng fault in the southeast and the Tanlu fault in the west. The Pengjiakuang, Fayunkuang and Dazhuangzi gold deposit occurs on the northeastern margin of the basin. The mineralization ages of these deposits are 110～128 Ma. This paper focuses on a low-angle detachment fault developed between the Proterozoic Jingshan Group metamorphic complex and the northeastern margin of the basin. Our field work shows that the distribution of the Pengjiakuang gold deposit was controlled by the detachment fault. Moreover, the Fayunkuang, Guocheng and Liaoshang gold deposits also occurr in the periphery of the basin, and their features are similar to Pengjiakuang gold deposit. The study of geological geochemistry of the gold deposits has shown: ①three-type gold deposit was situated in the Jiaodong area, including altered rock type (Jiaojia type), quartz vein type (Linglong type) and breccia type (Pengjiakuang type); the ore-forming materials and fluid for Pengjiakuang type gold deposit shows multiple source; ②the ore materials of Jiaojia and Linglong type deposits are mainly from deep source. The author has studied geological-geochemical dynamics of three types deposits in Jiaodong area. The study of tectonic dynamics shows that ore-forming structure differential stress values of Pengjiakuang gold deposit is 100 * 10~6～130 * 10~6 Pa, and that of Jiaojia gold deposit is 100 * 10~5～194 * 10~6 Pa. Dynamics of hydrothermal ore-forming fluid has also been studied in this paper. Author applies Bernoulli equation to dynamic model of hydrothermal fluid motion in brittle fracture and cracks (quartz vein type gold mineralization), and applies Darcy law to dynamic model of hydro thermal fluid motion in porous medium (altered rock type gold mineralization). Author does daring try in order to study quantitativly transport mechanism of hydrothermal ore-forming fluid in this paper. The study of fluid inclusions and crystal dynamics shows that reaction system of hydrothermal ore-forming includes three types, as follows: ore-forming reaction, controlling reaction and buffer controlling reaction. They depend on each other, controlling each other, which form a organic system. Further research shown that formation of ore shoots was controlled by coincidence processes of tectonic dynamic condition and thermodynamic evolution. This paper has summaried reginoal metallogenic laws and seted up metallogenic(dynamics) models for Jiaodong gold ore belt.

孤北洼陷沙三-沙四段隐蔽油藏形成机制及其预测

Based on the study of sequence stratigraphy, modern sedimentary, basin analysis, and petroleum system in Gubei depression, this paper builds high resolution sequence stratigraphic structure, sedimentary system, sandbody distribution, the effect of tectonic in sequence and sedimentary system evolution and model of tectonic-lithofacies. The pool formation mechanism of subtle trap is developed. There are some conclusions and views as follows. 1.With the synthetic sequence analysis of drilling, seismic, and well log, the highly resolution sequence structure is build in Gubei depression. They are divided two secondary sequences and seven three-order sequences in Shahejie formation. They are include 4 kinds of system traces and 7 kinds of sedimentary systems which are alluvial fan, under water fan, alluvial fan and fan-delta, fan-delta, lacustrine-fan, fluvial-delta-turbidite, lakeshore beach and bar, and deep lake system. Sandbody distribution is show base on third order sequence. 2.Based on a lot of experiment and well log, it is point out that there are many types of pore in reservoir with the styles of corrosion pore, weak cementing, matrix cementing, impure filling, and 7 kinds of diagenetic facies. These reservoirs are evaluated by lateral and profile characteristics of diagenetic facies and reservoir properties. 3.The effect of simultaneous faulting on sediment process is analyzed from abrupt slope, gentle slope, and hollow zone. The 4 kinds of tectonic lithofacies models are developed in several periods in Gubei depression; the regional distribution of subtle trap is predicted by hydro accumulation characteristics of different tectonic lithofacies. 4.There are 4 types of compacting process, which are normal compaction, abnormal high pressure, abnormal low pressure and complex abnormal pressure. The domain type is normal compaction that locates any area of depression, but normal high pressure is located only deep hollow zone (depth more than 3000m), abnormal low pressures are located gentle slope and faulted abrupt slope (depth between 1200~2500m). 5.Two types dynamic systems of pool formation (enclosed and partly enclosed system) are recognized. They are composed by which source rocks are from Es3 and Es4, cap rocks are deep lacustrine shale of Esl and Es3, and sandstone reservoirs are 7 kinds of sedimentary system in Es3 and Es4. According to theory of petroleum system, two petroleum systems are divided in Es3 and Es4 of Gubei depression, which are high or normal pressure self-source system and normal or low pressure external-source system. 6.There are 3 kinds of combination model of pool formation, the first is litholgical pool of inner depression (high or normal pressure self-source type), the second is fault block or fault nose pool in marginal of depression (normal type), the third is fault block-lithological pool of central low lifted block (high or normal pressure type). The lithological pool is located central of depression, other pool are located gentle or abrupt slope that are controlled by lithological, faulting, unconfirmed. 7.This paper raise a new technique and process of exploration subtle trap which include geological modeling, coring description and logging recognition, and well log constrained inversion. These are composed to method and theory of predicting subtle trap. Application these methods and techniques, 6 hydro objects are predicted in three zone of depression.

准噶尔盆地吉木萨尔凹陷含油气系统形成与分布研究

On the basis of the theory and method of petroleum system, by using formation analysis and multi-discipline ways, we study the formation and .distribution of petroleum system of the Jimusaer sag in the Zhungaer Basin. Through analysis and description of main formation factors, petroleum system is classified and subdivided into several ranks. At the same time, we describe the main elements of reservoir formation and the contribution to the petroleum system. By analyzing the process of reservoir formation, we define the quantitative relationship of petroleum sources, migration and oil accumulation. Through a comprehensive studying method, the next step is to build the reservoir formation model of petroleum system and confirm the exploration target. Finally, a method which fits to study the petroleum system formation and distribution in this type of basin is created. It broadens the quantitative theory of petroleum system. The following are the main conclusions. 1. The division of rank concept of petroleum system and the classification of multi-ranks combination are put forwarded for the first time. The petroleum system is classified into 5 ranks. These ranks, in an ascending order, are compounded petroleum system, independent petroleum system, sub-petroleum system, reservoir formation structure and the main factors of reservoir formation respectively. Therefore the Jimusaer sag is divided into 1 first ranked compounded petroleum system, 2 independent petroleum systems (The first is Jiang first member ~ Jiang second member+Pingdiquan member+ Wutonggou member petroleum system and the second Pingdiquan member - Wutonggou member+Triassic + Jurassic petroleum system) and 22 sub- petroleum systems. 2. The existence of the Jiangjunmiao member petroleum system in P_1 is put forwarded for the first time in the target zone except for Pingdiquan member hydro-source rock in P2 Both two hydro-source rock experience two evolvement movements, sub-mature and mature. It is estimated that there is the matured oil&gas in the sag. 3. By introduction of the basin simulation method, regaining and formation process of the different independent petroleum system are achieved. The sources, migration, accumulation and evolution rule are all indicated. It proposed that Jiang first member ~ Jiang second member+Pingdiquan member + Wutonggou member petroleum system formed primarily in Triassic and Jurassic. The oil&gas predominantly accumulated in layers of Jiang second member and Wutonggou member. Pingdiquan member ~ Wutonggou member+Triassic + Jurassic petroleum system formed in middle of Jurassic, and middle and late of the Kreaceous. In addition the oil&gas mostly accumulated in layers of Pingdiquan member and Wutonggou member. 4. By comprehensively analyzing the reservoir formation mechanism, it is proposed that oil&gas reservoir in this zone is formed in multiple periods. Major migration and accumulation power of oil&gas can be explained by an abnormal stratum pressure. There are six channels for the migration and accumulation -of oil&gas and therefore, can be considered as multi-circular distribution. 5. Combining the rank theory of petroleum system with mode identification method, we developed a quantitative evaluation method and judgment system for the exploration target. Using this technique, we confirmed three exploration target zones, four favorable oil&gas reservoir combinations, three exploration wells. Ji -15 well has been drilled and has provided a breakthrough on the oil&gas exploration.

基于GIS和DEM的乌江流域地表水文模拟

基于GIS和DEM的流域地表水文模拟可为分布式水文模型提供下垫面数据输入.本文采用内嵌于ArcGIS的地表水文分析工具Arc Hydro Tools,结合ArcGIS及其扩展模块Spatial Analyst,以贵州省内乌江流域为例,进行了流域水文模拟分析.运用Arc Hydro Tools进行地表水文模拟分析,主要包括以下4个流程:DEM的预处理、水流方向的确定、汇流栅格图的生成、自动提取河网和子流域边界.试验结果表明,提取河网的空间分布接近实际分布情况,数字流域界线的确定与水文部门基本相符.

基于GIS 的乌江流域（ 贵州境内）非点源污染评价

　　水是人类生存不可或缺的资源，水环境污染问题愈来愈受到人们的重视。随着对点源污染控制能力的提高，非点源污染问题成为当前研究中的热点，而对非点源污染进行定量化研究的最直接、最有效的途径就是建立模拟模型。基于此热点问题，本文选择乌江流域（贵州境内）作为研究区，在ArcGIS 平台上建立了一个简单、快速评价流域非点源污染的方法，它考虑流域的空间异质性，且只需很少的参数。该方法用一个分辨率较高的栅格数字高程模型（DEM）将整个流域划分成100 m×100 m 的格网，计算每个栅格里产生的地表径流量和非点源污染负荷。通过模拟流域地表水流，追踪每个栅格中的水流流向，模拟非点源污染物在流域河网中的运动过程。该方法能计算一个区域水文系统年均非点源污染物的负荷，并能估算出由非点源污染在河网中产生的各污染物浓度值。 　　通过本项研究，能识别出流域内非点源污染严重区域，还可以快速模拟土地利用变化对流域非点源污染的影响，从而为流域今后的规划和综合治理提供科学依据。通过系统的研究，本文主要研究成果如下： 　　1. 建立了乌江流域（贵州境内）非点源污染数据库（空间数据库和属性数据库），这不仅有力地支撑了研究区非点源污染评价研究，同时对于在研究区开展其它方面的研究也是一个有力的支撑。 　　2. 基于Arc Hydro Tools 和DEM 自动提取的流域河网与1:25 万数字水系相比较，两者在总体上吻合较好，特别是两者的主干河道基本重合，这正是在DEM基于GIS 的乌江流域（ 贵州境内） 非点源污染评价预处理中用AGREE 算法将主干河网与DEM 融合的效果；但也有少部分地区（地形平坦处，地形坡度≤3°或受人类活动影响较大的区域）两者存在较大差异，如将红枫湖、百花水库等湖泊水库区描述成河道了，在东干渠和西干渠处，由于人工河渠改变了水流的自然方向，使得提取河网与实际河网差别很大。 　　3. 以流域内的5 个水文站为子流域出口，分别描绘相应子流域，比较自动提取流域面积与实际量测结果，结果表明自动提取的子流域面积与实际量测子流域面积非常接近，相对误差在9％以内，能达到1:25 万数据的精度要求。 　　4. 以流域内5 个子流域的地表径流量，降雨量和土地利用百分比为输入参数，利用多元回归分析工具建立流域降雨径流模型，结果表明模拟相对误差在7%以内，证明所建降雨径流模型能满足模拟需要，模拟精度较高。 　　5. 流域出口处的年均非点源总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）输出通量分别为40309 ton 和2607 ton。从流域内各大支流控制的子流域来看，野济河流域由于其中的耕地面积大（占流域面积的51.21％），以3.03％的流域面积分别贡献了4.08％和3.95％的非点源总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）负荷；而湘江流域，由于其中的林地面积占主导地位（占流域面积的68.94％），以8.45％的流域面积只分别输出了6.40％和6.06％的非点源总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）负荷。因此，对非点源污染的控制要从耕地和草地着手，需要优先治理的流域为野济河流域、三岔河流域、猫跳河流域、偏岩河流域、乌江下干流流域。 　　6. 模拟的非点源总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）浓度值在流域上游明显大于下游。比较水质监测点浓度值与对应的模拟浓度值，可以发现在贵阳站和湘江站的观测值大大超过模拟值：贵阳站的总氮（TN）浓度观测值为9.37 mg/l，模拟值为2.94mg/l，总磷（TP）浓度观测值为0.68 mg/l，模拟值为0.19 mg/l；湘江站的总氮（TN）浓度观测值为5.77 mg/l，模拟值为1.98 mg/l，总磷（TP）浓度观测值为0.27 mg/l，模拟值为0.13 mg/l。另外在思南站的总磷（TP）的观测值也大大超过模拟值，观测值为0.44 mg/l，模拟值为0.14 mg/l。观测值与模拟值之间这种巨大的差异可能暗示在这两处存在明显的总氮（TN）点源污染。而贵阳站和湘江站刚好分别位于贵阳市和遵义市市区的下游，贵阳市和遵义市是流域内最大的两个工业城市。对于观测值小于模拟值的情况，主要有两种可能的原因：①某种土地利用类型的EMC 平均值赋得过高了，或②非点源污染物在随水流运动过程中损失了一部分，如沉淀或分解等。

Developing the untapped wealth of Britain's ?Celtic Fringe? : Water engineering and the Welsh landscape, 1870 ? 1960

Roberts, O. (2006). Developing the untapped wealth of Britain's ?Celtic fringe?: water engineering and the Welsh landscape, 1870-1960. Landscape Research. 31(2), pp.121-133. RAE2008

A desidratação no idoso

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Farmacêuticas

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Efects of mineral suspension and dissolution on strength and compressibility of soft carbonate rocks

© 2014 Elsevier B.V.Calcarenites are highly porous soft rocks formed of mainly carbonate grains bonded together by calcite bridges. The above characteristics make them prone to water-induced weathering, frequently featuring large caverns and inland natural underground cavities. This study is aimed to determine the main physical processes at the base of the short- and long-term weakening experienced by these rocks when interacting with water. We present the results of microscale experimental investigations performed on calcarenites from four different sites in Southern Italy. SEM, thin sections, X-ray CT observations and related analyses are used for both the interpretation-definition of the structure changes, and the identification-quantification of the degradation mechanisms. Two distinct types of bonding have been identified within the rock: temporary bonding (TB) and persistent bonding (PB). The diverse mechanisms linked to these two types of bonding explain both the observed fast decrease in rock strength when water fills the pores (short-term effect of water), identified with a short-term debonding (STD), and a long-term weakening of the material, when the latter is persistently kept in water-saturated conditions (long-term effect of water), identified with a long-term debonding (LTD). To highlight the micro-hydro-chemo-mechanical processes of formation and annihilation of the TB bonds and their role in the evolution of the mechanical strength of the material, mechanical tests on samples prepared by drying partially saturated calcarenite powder, or a mix of glass ballotini and calcarenite powder were conducted. The long-term debonding processes have also been investigated, using acid solutions in order to accelerate the reaction rates. This paper attempts to identify and quantify differences between the two types of bonds and the relative micro-scale debonding processes leading to the macro-scale material weakening mechanisms.

Impact of the vertical potshell deformation on the MHD cell stability behavior of a 500 kA aluminium electrolysis cell

In previous publications [1,2], it was rationalized that a large vertical potshell deformation may have a negative impact on the operations of very high amperage cells. The MHD-Valdis non-linear Magneto-Hydro-Dynamic model was therefore extended to take into account the displacement of the potshell. The MHD cell stability behavior of a 500 kA cell with a 17.3 meters long potshell was then studied.

Ocean climate anomalies and the ecology of the North Sea

Long-term changes in the plankton of the North Sea are investigated using data from the continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey. During the last 4 decades, there appears to have been 2 large anomalous periods within the plankton data set, one that occurred in the late 1970s and the other in the late 1980s. These anomalous periods seem to be largely synchronous with unusual ocean climate conditions that have occurred episodically over a timescale of decades. The unusual ocean climate conditions prevailing at these 2 time periods appear to contain important hydrographical elements that involve oceanic incursions into the North Sea. This paper, using data from the CPR survey and providing evidence from other studies, focuses on the relationship between the long-term changes in the biology of the North Sea and these 2 exceptional hydro-climatic events. Here, we suggest that while atmospheric variability and associated changes in regional temperatures have a dominant effect on the marine environment, oceanic influences on the ecology of a semi-closed environment such as the North Sea may have been underestimated in the past.

Increased blooms of a dinoflagellate in the NW Atlantic

Sampling by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) over the NW Atlantic from 1960 to 2000 has enabled long-term studies of the larger components of the phytoplankton community, highlighting various changes, particularly during the 1990s. Analysis of an index of phytoplankton biomass, the Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI) has revealed an increase over the past decade, most marked during the winter (December to February) months. Examination of the structure of the community using multiple linear-regression models indicates that the winter phytoplankton community composition has changed markedly in the 1990s compared to the 1960s. One phytoplankter, the dinoflagellate Ceratium arcticum (Cleve), has undergone dramatic changes in abundance during this period, with pronounced large winter blooms and decreased autumnal levels, and its contribution to the Phytoplankton Colour index values has increased significantly. Other dominant species in the phytoplankton community, both diatoms and dinoflagellates, did not show the same variations over the examined time period. It is suggested that the response of C. arcticum is probably a result of previously reported changes in stratification in the NW Atlantic, due to dynamic hydro-climatic (freshening and cooling) events.

Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate

Recently, large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans have been detected in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages were found with a northward extension of more than ° in latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These changes were attributed to regional increase in sea surface temperature. Here, we have extended these studies to examine long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon in relation to hydro-meteorological forcing in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. We found highly significant relationships between (1) long-term changes in all three trophic levels, (2) sea surface temperature in the northeastern Atlantic, (3) Northern Hemisphere temperature and (4) the North Atlantic Oscillation. The similarities detected between plankton, salmon, temperature and hydro-climatic parameters are also seen in their cyclical variability and in a stepwise shift that started after a pronounced increase in Northern Hemisphere Temperature anomalies at the end of the 1970s. All biological variables show a pronounced change which started after circa 1982 for euphausiids (decline), 1984 for the total abundance of small copepods (increase), 1986 for phytoplankton biomass (increase) and Calanus finmarchicus (decrease) and 1988 for salmon (decrease). This cascade of biological events led to an exceptional period, which is identified after 1986 to present and followed another shift in large-scale hydro-climatic variables and sea surface temperature. This regional temperature increase therefore appears to be an important parameter that is at present governing the dynamic equilibrium of northeast Atlantic pelagic ecosystems with possible consequences for biogeochemical processes and fisheries.

Unanticipated biological changes and global warming

Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called ‘surprises’ in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past.