Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Estimating Frequencies of Minority Nevirapine-Resistant Strains in Chronically HIV-1-Infected Individuals Naive to Nevirapine by Using Stochastic Simulations and a Mathematical Model

Nevirapine forms the mainstay of our efforts to curtail the pediatric AIDS epidemic through prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. A key limitation, however, is the rapid selection of HIV-1 strains resistant to nevirapine following the administration of a single dose. This rapid selection of resistance suggests that nevirapine-resistant strains preexist in HIV-1 patients and may adversely affect outcomes of treatment. The frequencies of nevirapine-resistant strains in vivo, however, remain poorly estimated, possibly because they exist as a minority below current assay detection limits. Here, we employ stochastic simulations and a mathematical model to estimate the frequencies of strains carrying different combinations of the common nevirapine resistance mutations K103N, V106A, Y181C, Y188C, and G190A in chronically infected HIV-1 patients naive to nevirapine. We estimate the relative fitness of mutant strains from an independent analysis of previous competitive growth assays. We predict that single mutants are likely to preexist in patients at frequencies (similar to 0.01% to 0.001%) near or below current assay detection limits (>0.01%), emphasizing the need for more-sensitive assays. The existence of double mutants is subject to large stochastic variations. Triple and higher mutants are predicted not to exist. Our estimates are robust to variations in the recombination rate, cellular superinfection frequency, and the effective population size. Thus, with 10(7) to 10(8) infected cells in HIV-1 patients, even when undetected, nevirapine-resistant genomes may exist in substantial numbers and compromise efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1, accelerate the failure of subsequent antiretroviral treatments, and facilitate the transmission of drug resistance.

Structure-function relationships of icosahedral plant viruses

X-ray diffraction studies on single crystals of a few viruses have led to the elucidation of their three dimensional structure at near atomic resolution. Both the tertiary structure of the coat protein subunit and the quaternary morganization of the icosahedral capsid in these viruses are remarkably similar. These studies have led to a critical re-examination of the structural principles in the architecture of isometric viruses and suggestions of alternative mechanisms of assembly. Apart from their role in the assembly of the virus particle, the coat proteins of certian viruses have been shown to inhibit the replication of the cognate RNA leading to cross-protection. The coat protein amino acid sequence and the genomic sequence of several spherical plant RNA viruses have been determined in the last decade. Experimental data on the mechanisms of uncoating, gene expression and replication of several classes of viruses have also become available. The function of the non-structural proteins of some viruses have been determined. This rapid progress has provided a wealth of information on several key steps in the life cycle of RNA viruses. The function of the viral coat protein, capsid architecture, assembly and disassembly and replication of isometric RNA plant viruses are discussed in the light of this accumulated knowledge.

Molecular Characterization of Viruses Causing the Cassava Brown Streak Disease Epidemic in Eastern Africa

Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) was described for the first time in Tanganyika (now Tanzania) about seven decades ago. Tanganyika (now Tanzania) about seven decades ago. It was endemic in the lowland areas of East Africa and inland parts of Malawi and caused by Cassava brown streak virus (CBSV; genus Ipomovirus; Potyviridae). However, in 1990s CBSD was observed at high altitude areas in Uganda. The causes for spread to new locations were not known.The present work was thus initiated to generate information on genetic variability, clarify the taxonomy of the virus or viruses associated with CBSD in Eastern Africa as well as to understand the evolutionary forces acting on their genes. It also sought to develop a molecular based diagnostic tool for detection of CBSD-associated virus isolates. Comparison of the CP-encoding sequences of CBSD-associated virus isolates collected from Uganda and north-western Tanzania in 2007 and the partial sequences available in Genbank revealed occurrence of two genetically distinct groups of isolates. Two isolates were selected to represent the two groups. The complete genomes of isolates MLB3 (TZ:Mlb3:07) and Kor6 (TZ:Kor6:08) obtained from North-Western (Kagera) and North-Eastern (Tanga) Tanzania, respectively, were sequenced. The genomes were 9069 and 8995 nucleotides (nt), respectively. They translated into polyproteins that were predicted to yield ten mature proteins after cleavage. Nine proteins were typical in the family Potyviridae, namely P1, P3, 6K1, CI, 6K2, VPg, NIa-Pro, NIb and CP, but the viruses did not contain HC-Pro. Interestingly, genomes of both isolates contained a Maf/HAM1-like sequence (HAM1h; 678 nucleotides, 25 kDa) recombined between the NIb and CP domains in the 3’-proximal part of the genomes. HAM1h was also identified in Euphorbia ringspot virus (EuRSV) whose sequence was in GenBank. The HAM1 gene is widely spread in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. In yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) it is known to be a nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) pyrophosphatase. Novel information was obtained on the structural variation at the N-termini of polyproteins of viruses in the genus Ipomovirus. Cucumber vein yellowing virus (CVYV) and Squash vein yellowing virus (SqVYV) contain a duplicated P1 (P1a and P1b) but lack the HC-Pro. On the other hand, Sweet potato mild mottle virus (SPMMV), has a single but large P1 and has HC-Pro. Both virus isolates (TZ:Mlb3:07 & TZ:Kor6:08) characterized in this study contained a single P1 and lacked the HC-Pro which indicates unique evolution in the family Potyviridae. Comparison of 12 complete genomes of CBSD-associated viruses which included two genomes characterized in this study, revealed genetic identity of 69.0–70.3% (nt) and amino acid (aa) identities of 73.6–74.4% at polyprotein level. Comparison was also made among 68 complete CP sequences, which indicated 69.0-70.3 and 73.6-74.4 % identity at nt and aa levels, respectively. The genetic variation was large enough for dermacation of CBSD-associated virus isolates into two distinct species. The name CBSV was retained for isolates that were related to CBSV isolates available in database whereas the new virus described for the first time in this study was named Ugandan cassava brown streak virus (UCBSV) by the International Committee on Virus Taxonomy (ICTV). The isolates TZ:Mlb3:07 and TZ:Kor6:08 belong to UCBSV and CBSV, respectively. The isolates of CBSV and UCBSV were 79.3-95.5% and 86.3-99.3 % identitical at nt level, respectively, suggesting more variation amongst CBSV isolates. The main sources of variation in plant viruses are mutations and recombination. Signals for recombination events were detected in 50% of isolates of each virus. Recombination events were detected in coding and non-coding (3’-UTR) sequences except in the 5’UTR and P3. There was no evidence for recombination between isolates of CBSV and UCBSV. The non-synonomous (dN) to synonomous (dS) nucleotide substitution ratio (ω) for the HAM1h and CP domains of both viruses were ≤ 0.184 suggesting that most sites of these proteins were evolving under strong purifying selection. However, there were individual amino acid sites that were submitted to adaptive evolution. For instance, adaptive evolution was detected in the HAM1h of UCBSV (n=15) where 12 aa sites were under positive selection (P< 0.05) but not in CBSV (n=12). The CP of CBSV (n=23) contained 12 aa sites (p<0.01) while only 5 aa sites in the CP gene of UCBSV were predicted to be submitted to positive selection pressure (p<0.01). The advantages offered by the aa sites under positive selection could not be established but occurrence of such sites in the terminal ends of UCBSV-HAMIh, for example, was interpreted as a requirement for proteolysis during polyprotein processing. Two different primer pairs that simultaneously detect UCBSV and CBSV isolates were developed in this study. They were used successfully to study distribution of CBSV, UCBSV and their mixed infections in Tanzania and Uganda. It was established that the two viruses co-infect cassava and that incidences of co-infection could be as high as 50% around Lake Victoria on the Tanzanian side. Furthermore, it was revealed for the first time that both UCBSV and CBSV were widely distributed in Eastern Africa. The primer pair was also used to confirm infection in a close relative of cassava, Manihot glaziovii (Müller Arg.) with CBSV. DNA barcoding of M. glaziovii was done by sequencing the matK gene. Two out of seven M. glaziovii from the coastal areas of Korogwe and Kibaha in north eastern Tanzania were shown to be infected by CBSV but not UCBSV isolates. Detection in M. glaziovii has an implication in control and management of CBSD as it is likely to serve as virus reservoir. This study has contributed to the understanding of evolution of CBSV and UCBSV, which cause CBSD epidemic in Eastern Africa. The detection tools developed in this work will be useful in plant breeding, verification of the phytosanitary status of materials in regional and international movement of germplasm, and in all diagnostic activities related to management of CBSD. Whereas there are still many issues to be resolved such as the function and biological significance of HAM1h and its origin, this work has laid a foundation upon which the studies on these aspects can be based.

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N-e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N-e similar to 10(2)-10(4), smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (similar to 10(5)), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N-e>10(5), suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4), implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N-e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N-e>10(5) reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4) may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.

Monoclonal antibodies in the study of architecture of plant viruses

Monoclonal antibodies have been used as probes to study the architecture of several plant viruses over the past decade. These studies complement the information obtained through X-ray crystallography and help in delineating epitopes on the surface of the virus. The monoclonal antibodies that recognize distinct epitopes also aid in unravelling the mechanisms of assembly/disassembly of virus particles. Group-specific and strain-specific monoclonal antibodies are widely used in the classification of viruses. The significant developments made in this emerging area are reviewed here with specific examples.

Design and Characterization of Stabilized Derivatives of Human CD4D12 and CD4D1

CD4 is present on the surface of T-lymphocytes and is the primary cellular receptor for HIV-1. CD4 consists of a cytoplasmic tail, one transmembrane region, and four extracellular domains, D1-D4. A construct consisting of the first two domains of CD4 (CD4D12) is folded and binds gp120 with similar affinity as soluble 4-domain CD4 (sCD4). However, the first domain alone (CD4D1) was previously shown to be largely unfolded and had 3-fold weaker affinity for gp120 when compared to sCD4 [Sharma, D.; et al. (2005) Biochemistry 44, 16192-16202]. We now report the design and characterization of three single-site mutants of CD4D12 (G6A, L51I, and V86L) and one multisite mutant of CD4D1 (G6A/L511/L5K/F98T). G6A, L51I, and V86L are cavity-filling mutations while L5K and F98T are surface mutations which were introduced to minimize the aggregation of CD4D1 upon removal of the second domain. Two mutations, G6A and V86L in CD4D12 increased the stability and yield of the protein relative to the wild-type protein. The mutant CD4D1 (CD4D1a) with the 4 mutations was folded and more stable compared to the original CD4D1, but both bound gp120 with comparable affinity. In in vitro neutralization assays, both CD4D1a and G6A-CD4D12 were able to neutralize diverse HIV-1 viruses with similar IC(50)s as 4-domain CD4. These stabilized derivatives of human CD4 can be useful starting points for the design of other more complex viral entry inhibitors.

HLA-B*57 and Gender Influence the Occurrence of Tuberculosis in HIV Infected People of South India

Background. Substantial evidence exists for HLA and other host genetic factors being determinants of susceptibility or resistance to infectious diseases. However, very little information is available on the role of host genetic factors in HIV-TB coinfection. Hence, a longitudinal study was undertaken to investigate HLA associations in a cohort of HIV seropositive individuals with and without TB in Bangalore, South India. Methods. A cohort of 238 HIV seropositive subjects were typed for HLA-A, B, and DR by PCR-SSP and followed up for 5 years or till manifestation of Tuberculosis. HLA data of 682 HIV Negative healthy renal donors was used as control. Results. The ratio of males and females in HIV cohort was comparable (50.4% and 49.6%). But the incidence of TB was markedly lower in females (12.6%,) than males (25.6%). Further, HLA-B* 57 frequency in HIV cohort was significantly higher among females without TB (21.6%, 19/88) than males (1.7%, 1/59); P = 0.0046; OR = 38. CD4 counts also were higher among females in this cohort. Conclusion. This study suggests that HIV positive women with HLA-B* 57 have less occurrence of TB as compared to males.

Designed Cyclic Permutants of HIV-1 gp120: Implications for Envelope Trimer Structure and Immunogen Design

Most HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies are directed against the gp120 subunit of the env surface protein. Native env consists of a trimer of gp120-gp41 heterodimers, and in contrast to monomeric gp120, preferentially binds CD4 binding site (CD4bs)-directed neutralizing antibodies over non-neutralizing ones. Some cryo-electron tomography studies have suggested that the V1V2 loop regions of gp120 are located close to the trimer interface. We have therefore designed cyclically permuted variants of gp120 with and without the h-CMP and SUMO2a trimerization domains inserted into the V1V2 loop. h-CMP-V1cyc is one such variant in which residues 153 and 142 are the N- and C-terminal residues, respectively, of cyclically permuted gp120 and h-CMP is fused to the N-terminus. This molecule forms a trimer under native conditions and binds CD4 and the neutralizing CD4bs antibodies b12 with significantly higher affinity than wild-type gp120. It binds non-neutralizing CD4bs antibody F105 with lower affinity than gp120. A similar derivative, h-CMP-V1cycl, bound the V1V2 loop-directed broadly neutralizing antibodies PG9 and PG16 with similar to 20-fold higher affinity than wild-type JRCSF gp120. These cyclic permutants of gp120 are properly folded and are potential immunogens. The data also support env models in which the V1V2 loops are proximal to the trimer interface.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Subtypes in India: Origin and Evolutionary History of the Predominant Subtype C

Background: India has the third largest HIV-1 epidemic with 2.4 million infected individuals. Molecular epidemiological analysis has identified the predominance of HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C). However, the previous reports have been limited by sample size, and uneven geographical distribution. The introduction of HIV-1C in India remains uncertain due to this lack of structured studies. To fill the gap, we characterised the distribution pattern of HIV-1 subtypes in India based on data collection from nationwide clinical cohorts between 2007 and 2011. We also reconstructed the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the predominant HIV-1C strains. Methodology/Principal Findings: Blood samples were collected from 168 HIV-1 seropositive subjects from 7 different states. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using two or three genes, gag, pol, and env using several methods. Bayesian coalescent-based approach was used to reconstruct the time of introduction and population growth patterns of the Indian HIV-1C. For the first time, a high prevalence (10%) of unique recombinant forms (BC and A1C) was observed when two or three genes were used instead of one gene (p<0.01; p = 0.02, respectively). The tMRCA of Indian HIV-1C was estimated using the three viral genes, ranged from 1967 (gag) to 1974 (env). Pol-gene analysis was considered to provide the most reliable estimate 1971, (95% CI: 1965-1976)]. The population growth pattern revealed an initial slow growth phase in the mid-1970s, an exponential phase through the 1980s, and a stationary phase since the early 1990s. Conclusions/Significance: The Indian HIV-1C epidemic originated around 40 years ago from a single or few genetically related African lineages, and since then largely evolved independently. The effective population size in the country has been broadly stable since the 1990s. The evolving viral epidemic, as indicated by the increase of recombinant strains, warrants a need for continued molecular surveillance to guide efficient disease intervention strategies.

Stochastic Simulations Suggest that HIV-1 Survives Close to Its Error Threshold

The use of mutagenic drugs to drive HIV-1 past its error threshold presents a novel intervention strategy, as suggested by the quasispecies theory, that may be less susceptible to failure via viral mutation-induced emergence of drug resistance than current strategies. The error threshold of HIV-1, mu(c), however, is not known. Application of the quasispecies theory to determine mu(c) poses significant challenges: Whereas the quasispecies theory considers the asexual reproduction of an infinitely large population of haploid individuals, HIV-1 is diploid, undergoes recombination, and is estimated to have a small effective population size in vivo. We performed population genetics-based stochastic simulations of the within-host evolution of HIV-1 and estimated the structure of the HIV-1 quasispecies and mu(c). We found that with small mutation rates, the quasispecies was dominated by genomes with few mutations. Upon increasing the mutation rate, a sharp error catastrophe occurred where the quasispecies became delocalized in sequence space. Using parameter values that quantitatively captured data of viral diversification in HIV-1 patients, we estimated mu(c) to be 7 x 10(-5) -1 x 10(-4) substitutions/site/replication, similar to 2-6 fold higher than the natural mutation rate of HIV-1, suggesting that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold and may be readily susceptible to mutagenic drugs. The latter estimate was weakly dependent on the within-host effective population size of HIV-1. With large population sizes and in the absence of recombination, our simulations converged to the quasispecies theory, bridging the gap between quasispecies theory and population genetics-based approaches to describing HIV-1 evolution. Further, mu(c) increased with the recombination rate, rendering HIV-1 less susceptible to error catastrophe, thus elucidating an added benefit of recombination to HIV-1. Our estimate of mu(c) may serve as a quantitative guideline for the use of mutagenic drugs against HIV-1.

Conformational dynamics of HIV-1 protease: a comparative molecular dynamics simulation study with multiple amber force fields

Flap dynamics of HIV-1 protease (HIV-pr) controls the entry of inhibitors and substrates to the active site. Dynamical models from previous simulations are not all consistent with each other and not all are supported by the NMR results. In the present work, the er effect of force field on the dynamics of HIV-pr is investigated by MD simulations using three AMBER force fields ff99, ff99SB, and ff03. The generalized order parameters for amide backbone are calculated from the three force fields and compared with the NMR S2 values. We found that the ff99SB and ff03 force field calculated order parameters agree reasonably well with the NMR S2 values, whereas ff99 calculated values deviate most from the NMR order parameters. Stereochemical geometry of protein models from each force field also agrees well with the remarks from NMR S2 values. However, between ff99SB and ff03, there are several differences, most notably in the loop regions. It is found that these loops are, in general, more flexible in the ff03 force field. This results in a larger active site cavity in the simulation with the ff03 force field. The effect of this difference in computer-aided drug design against flexible receptors is discussed.