Global processing speed as a mediator of developmental changes in children's auditory memory span

This study examined the role of global processing speed in mediating age increases in auditory memory span in 5- to 13-year-olds. Children were tested on measures of memory span, processing speed, single-word speech rate, phonological sensitivity, and vocabulary. Structural equation modeling supported a model in which age-associated increases in processing speed predicted the availability of long-term memory phonological representations for redintegration processes. The availability of long-term phonological representations, in turn, explained variance in memory span. Maximum speech rate did not predict independent variance in memory span. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Human sensitivity to phase perturbations in natural images:A statistical framework

Fourier-phase information is important in determining the appearance of natural scenes, but the structure of natural-image phase spectra is highly complex and difficult to relate directly to human perceptual processes. This problem is addressed by extending previous investigations of human visual sensitivity to the randomisation and quantisation of Fourier phase in natural images. The salience of the image changes induced by these physical processes is shown to depend critically on the nature of the original phase spectrum of each image, and the processes of randomisation and quantisation are shown to be perceptually equivalent provided that they shift image phase components by the same average amount. These results are explained by assuming that the visual system is sensitive to those phase-domain image changes which also alter certain global higher-order image statistics. This assumption may be used to place constraints on the likely nature of cortical processing: mechanisms which correlate the outputs of a bank of relative-phase-sensitive units are found to be consistent with the patterns of sensitivity reported here.

Functional neuroimaging and behavioural studies on global form processing in the human visual system

Magnetoencephalography (MEG), functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioural experiments were used to investigate the neural processes underlying global form perception in human vision. Behavioural studies using Glass patterns examined sensitivity for detecting radial, rotational and horizontal structure. Neuroimaging experiments using either Glass patterns or arrays of Gabor patches determined the spatio-temporal neural responseto global form. MEG data were analysed using synthetic aperture magnetometry (SAM) to spatially map event-related cortical oscillatory power changes: the temporal sequencing of activity within a discrete cortical area was determined using a Morlet wavelet transform. A case study was conducted to determine the effects of strbismic amblyopia on global form processing: all other observers were normally-sighted. The main findings from normally-sighted observers were: 1) sensitivity to horizontal structure was less than for radial or rotational structure; 2) the neural response to global structure was a reduction in cortical oscillatory power (10-30 Hz) within a network of extrastriate areas, including V4 and V3a; 3) the extend of reduced cortical power was least for horizontal patters; 4) V1 was not identified as a region of peak activity with either MEG or fMRI. The main findings with the strabismic amblyope were: 1) sensitivity for detection of radial, rotational, and horizontal structure was reduced when viewed with the amblyopic- relative to the fellow- eye; 2) cortical power changes within V4 to the presentation of rotational Glass patterns were less when viewed with the amblyopic- compared with the fellow- eye. The main conclusions are: 1) a network of extrastriate cortical areas are involved in the analysis of global form, with the most prominent change in neural activity being a reduction in oscillatory power within the 10-30 Hz band; 2) in strabismic amblyopia, the neuronal assembly associated with form perception in extrastriate cortex may be dysfunctional, the nature of this dysfunction may be a change in the normal temporal pattern of neuronal discharges; 3) MEG, fMRI and behavioural measures support the notion that different neural processes underlie the perception of horizontal as opposed to radial or rotational structure.

Contrast sensitivity for complex and random gratings

This thesis studied the effect of (i) the number of grating components and (ii) parameter randomisation on root-mean-square (r.m.s.) contrast sensitivity and spatial integration. The effectiveness of spatial integration without external spatial noise depended on the number of equally spaced orientation components in the sum of gratings. The critical area marking the saturation of spatial integration was found to decrease when the number of components increased from 1 to 5-6 but increased again at 8-16 components. The critical area behaved similarly as a function of the number of grating components when stimuli consisted of 3, 6 or 16 components with different orientations and/or phases embedded in spatial noise. Spatial integration seemed to depend on the global Fourier structure of the stimulus. Spatial integration was similar for sums of two vertical cosine or sine gratings with various Michelson contrasts in noise. The critical area for a grating sum was found to be a sum of logarithmic critical areas for the component gratings weighted by their relative Michelson contrasts. The human visual system was modelled as a simple image processor where the visual stimuli is first low-pass filtered by the optical modulation transfer function of the human eye and secondly high-pass filtered, up to the spatial cut-off frequency determined by the lowest neural sampling density, by the neural modulation transfer function of the visual pathways. The internal noise is then added before signal interpretation occurs in the brain. The detection is mediated by a local spatially windowed matched filter. The model was extended to include complex stimuli and its applicability to the data was found to be successful. The shape of spatial integration function was similar for non-randomised and randomised simple and complex gratings. However, orientation and/or phase randomised reduced r.m.s contrast sensitivity by a factor of 2. The effect of parameter randomisation on spatial integration was modelled under the assumption that human observers change the observer strategy from cross-correlation (i.e., a matched filter) to auto-correlation detection when uncertainty is introduced to the task. The model described the data accurately.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

How are task reflexivity and intercultural sensitivity related to the academic performance of MBA students?

Higher education in business school environments is increasingly focused on how to best equip students with the skills necessary for leadership in the global workplace. This paper examines the impact of two particularly important cognitive capabilities - task reflexivity and intercultural sensitivity, on academic performance in an MBA programme. It was hypothesised that in an intercultural learning environment, task reflexivity would be associated with higher academic performance, and that this relationship would be mediated via intercultural sensitivity. Questionnaire data from 77 MBA students was analysed alongside academic performance. Results demonstrated that task reflexivity was indirectly related to academic performance through intercultural sensitivity. These findings suggest that engagement in task reflexivity enables students to develop greater levels of intercultural sensitivity, allowing them to reap the positive effects of diversity in their peer group for their own learning and performance. Limitations and practical implications of the research for professional practice are discussed. © 2014 © 2014 Society for Research into Higher Education.

Selection of a network of large lakes and reservoirs suitable for global environmental change analysis using Earth Observation

The GloboLakes project, a global observatory of lake responses to environmental change, aims to exploit current satellite missions and long remote-sensing archives to synoptically study multiple lake ecosystems, assess their current condition, reconstruct past trends to system trajectories, and assess lake sensitivity to multiple drivers of change. Here we describe the selection protocol for including lakes in the global observatory based upon remote-sensing techniques and an initial pool of the largest 3721 lakes and reservoirs in the world, as listed in the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database. An 18-year-long archive of satellite data was used to create spatial and temporal filters for the identification of waterbodies that are appropriate for remote-sensing methods. Further criteria were applied and tested to ensure the candidate sites span a wide range of ecological settings and characteristics; a total 960 lakes, lagoons, and reservoirs were selected. The methodology proposed here is applicable to new generation satellites, such as the European Space Agency Sentinel-series.

Cenozoic global ice volume and temperature simulations over the past 40 million years

Variations in global ice volume and temperature over the Cenozoic era have been investigated with a set of one-dimensional (1-D) ice-sheet models. Simulations include three ice sheets representing glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. in Eurasia, North America and Greenland, and two separate ice sheets for Antarctic glaciation. The continental mean Northern Hemisphere surface-air temperature has been derived through an inverse procedure from observed benthic d18O records. These data have yielded a mutually consistent and continuous record of temperature, global ice volume and benthic d18O over the past 35 Ma. The simple 1-D model shows good agreement with a comprehensive 3-D ice-sheet model for the past 3 Ma. On average, differences are only 1.0°C for temperature and 6.2 m for sea level. Most notably, over the 35 Ma period, the reconstructed ice volume-temperature sensitivity shows a transition from a climate controlled by Southern Hemisphere ice sheets to one controlled by Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Although the transient behaviour is important, equilibrium experiments show that the relationship between temperature and sea level is linear and symmetric, providing limited evidence for hysteresis. Furthermore, the results show a good comparison with other simulations of Antarctic ice volume and observed sea level.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Effects of incomplete combustion on atmospheric chemistry: Black carbon climate forcing and global carbon monoxide emissions

This thesis is actually the composition of two separate studies aimed at further understanding the role of incomplete combustion products on atmospheric chemistry. The first explores the sensitivity of black carbon (BC) forcing to aerosol vertical location since BC has an increased forcing per unit mass when it is located above reflective clouds. We used a column radiative transfer model to produce globally-averaged values of normalized direct radiative forcing (NDRF) for BC over and under different types of clouds. We developed a simple column-weighting scheme based on the mass fractions of BC that are over and under clouds in measured vertical profiles. The resulting NDRF is in good agreement with global 3-D model estimates, supporting the column-weighted model as a tool for exploring uncertainties due to diversity in vertical distribution. BC above low clouds accounts for about 20% of the global burden but 50% of the forcing. We estimate maximum-minimum spread in NDRF due to modeled profiles as about 40% and uncertainty as about 25%. Models overestimate BC in the upper troposphere compared with measurements; modeled NDRF might need to be reduced by about 15%. Redistributing BC within the lowest 4 km of the atmosphere affects modeled NDRF by only about 5% and cannot account for very high forcing estimates. The second study estimated global year 2000 carbon monoxide (CO) emissions using a traditional bottom-up inventory. We applied literature-derived emission factors to a variety of fuel and technology combinations. Combining these with regional fuel use and production data we produced CO emissions estimates that were separable by sector, fuel type, technology, and region. We estimated year 2000 stationary source emissions of 685.9 Tg/yr and 885 Tg/yr if we included adopted mobile sources from EDGAR v3.2FT2000. Open/biomass burning contributed most significantly to global CO burden, while the residential sector, primarily in Asia and Africa, were the largest contributors with respect to contained combustion sources. Industry production in Asia, including brick, cement, iron and steel-making, also contributed significantly to CO emissions. Our estimates of biofuel emissions are lower than most previously published bottom-up estimates while our other fuel emissions are generally in good agreement. Our values are also universally lower than recently estimated CO emissions from models using top-down methods.

Modelling the biogeochemical cycles of elements limiting primary production in the English channel .2. Sensitivity analyses

A general framework for an ecological model of the English Channel was described in the first of this pair of papers. In this study, it was used to investigate the sensitivity of the model to various factors: model structure, parameter values, boundary conditions and forcing variables. These sensitivity analyses show how important quota formulation for phytoplankton growth is, particularly for growth of dinoflagellates. They also stress the major influence of variables and parameters related to nitrogen. The role played by rivers and particularly the river Seine was investigated. Their influence on global English Channel phytoplanktonic production seems to be relatively low, even though nutrient inputs determine the intensity of blooms in the Bay of Seine. The geographical position of the river Seine's estuary makes it important in fluxes through the Straits of Dover. Finally, the multi-annual study highlights the general stability of the English Channel ecosystem. These global considerations are discussed and further improvements to the model are proposed.

Interest rate (in)sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt : economic analysis based on 2002-2015 empirical evidence

Interest rate sensitivity assessment framework based on fixed income yield indexes is developed and applied to two types of emerging market corporate debt: investment grade and high yield exposures. Our research advances beyond the correlation analyses focused on co- movements in yields and/or spreads of risky and risk-free assets. We show that correlation- based analyses of interest rate sensitivity could appear rather inconclusive and, hence, we investigate the bottom line profit and loss of a hypothetical model portfolio of corporates. We consider historical data covering the period 2002 – 2015, which enable us to assess interest rate sensitivity of assets during the development, the apogee, and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Based on empirical evidence, both for investment and speculative grades securities, we find that the emerging market corporates exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management, evidencing that even plain vanilla portfolios of emerging market corporates, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk in fact present a binary behavior of their interest rate sensitivities. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.