Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Solvatochromic and lonochromic Effects of Iron(II)bis-(1,10-phenanthroline)dicyano: a Theoretical Study

Solvatochromic and ionochromic effects of the iron(II)bis(1,10-phenanthroline)dicyano (Fe(phen)(2)(CN)(2)) complex were investigated by means of combined DFT/TDDFT calculations using the PBE and B3LYP functionals. Extended solvation models of Fe(phen)(2)(CN)(2) in acetonitrile and aqueous solution, as well as including interaction with Mg(2+), were constructed. The calculated vertical excitation energies reproduce well the observed solvatochromism in acetonitrile and aqueous solutions, the ionochromism in acetonitrile in the presence of Mg(2+), and the absence of ionochromic effect in aqueous solution. The vertical excitation energies and the nature of the transitions were reliably predicted after inclusion of geometry relaxation upon aqueous micro- and global solvation and solvent polarization effect in the TDDFT calculations. The two intense UV-vis absorption bands occurring for all systems studied are interpreted as transitions from a hybrid Fe(II)(d)/cyano N(p) orbital to a phenanthroline pi* orbital rather than a pure metal-to-ligand-charge transfer (MLCT). The solvatochromic and ionochromic blue band shifts of Fe(phen)(2)(CN)(2) were explained with preferential stabilization of the highest occupied Fe(II)(d)/cyano N(p) orbitals as a result of specific interactions with water solvent molecules or Mg(2+) ions in solution. Such interactions occur through the CN(-) groups in the complex, and they have a decisive role for the observed blue shifts of UV-vis absorption bands.

The global financial crisis and after: a new capitalism?

The 2008 global financial crisis was the consequence of the process of financialization, or the creation of massive fictitious financial wealth, that began in the 1980s, and of the hegemony of a reactionary ideology, namely, neoliberalism, based on selfregulated and efficient markets. Although capitalism is intrinsically unstable, the lessons from the stock-market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s were transformed into theories and institutions or regulations that led to the “30 glorious years of capitalism” (1948–77) and that could have avoided a financial crisis as profound as the present one. It did not because a coalition of rentiers and “financists” achieved hegemony and, while deregulating the existing financial operations, refused to regulate the financial innovations that made these markets even more risky. Neoclassical economics played the role of a meta-ideology as it legitimized, mathematically and “scientifically”, neoliberal ideology and deregulation. From this crisis a new capitalism will emerge, though its character is difficult to predict. It will not be financialized but the tendencies present in the 30 glorious years toward global and knowledge-based capitalism, where professionals will have more say than rentier capitalists, as well as the tendency to improve democracy by making it more social and participative, will be resumed.

A construção de uma marca corporativa global no sucesso da internacionalização: um desafio às empresas brasileiras do segmento business to business

Considerando o crescente número de empresas brasileiras que tem investido em unidades operacionais no exterior e a necessidade de criar a identidade de uma corporação transnacional, esta pesquisa objetivou explorar a existência e a influência de um processo estruturado de construção de marca corporativa global por parte de empresas transnacionais brasileiras do segmento business to business. Um estudo múltiplo de casos foi realizado entre cinco empresas significativas listadas no ranking de transnacionalidade. Ao final desta pesquisa, foi possível verificar que embora todas as empresas estudadas afirmarem possuir um processo de construção de marca corporativa global, tal fato não se confirmou. Também verificou-se que o nível de maturidade do processo entre as empresas é diverso, bem como a sua importância no sucesso da internacionalização, diante das características distintas das corporações estudadas. Uma série de dificuldades neste processo, bem como as soluções adotadas e propostas são indicadas. A relevância dos diversos stakeholders no Brasil e no exterior no processo de internacionalização foi analisada, e entre as empresas estudadas não houve uma forte distinção destes no Brasil e no exterior. Verificou-se haver aderência entre os processos espontâneos de construção de marca corporativa das empresas e as linhas de pensamento dos pesquisadores estudados, existindo peculiaridades na maneira em como o processo se estabelece e em como a identidade corporativa se expressa.

The consequences of the culture aspect and the power distance in the execution of global strategies in multinational companies in Brazil

One of the challenges presented by the current conjecture in Global Companies is to recognize and understand that the culture and levels in structure of the Power Distance in Organizations in different countries contribute, significantly, toward the failure or success of their strategies. The alignment between the implementation and execution of new strategies for projects intended for the success of the Organization as a whole, rather than as an individual part thereof, is an important step towards reducing the impacts of Power Distance (PDI) on the success of business strategies. A position at odds with this understanding by Companies creates boundaries that increase organizational chasms, also taking into consideration relevant aspects such as, FSAs (Firm-Specific Advantages) and CSAs (Country-Specific Advantages). It is also important that the Organizations based in countries or regions of low Power Distance (PDI) between its individuals be more flexible and prepared to ask and to hear the suggestions from Regional and Local Offices. Thus, the purpose of this study is to highlight the elements of effective strategy implementation considering the relevant aspects at all levels of global corporate culture that justify the influences of power distance when implementing new strategies and also to minimize the impacts of this internal business relationship. This study also recognizes that other corporate and cultural aspects are relevant for the success of business strategies so consider, for instance, the lack of alignment between global and regional/local organizations, the need for competent leadership resources, as well as the challenges that indicate the distance between the hierarchical levels ─ Headquarters and Regional Office ─ as some of the various causes that prevent the successful execution of global strategies. Finally, we show that the execution of the strategy cannot be treated as a construction solely created by the Headquarters or by only one Board and that it needs to be understood as a system aimed at interacting with the surroundings.

Annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse radiation and fractions in tilted surfaces

Avaliou-se a evolução anual das componentes global, direta e difusa da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas a 12,85; 22,85 e 32,85º, com face voltada ao Norte, em Botucatu-SP. Foram obtidas frações radiométricas para cada componente da radiação nas superfícies supracitadas, através de razões com a radiação global e a do topo da atmosfera. A sazonalidade foi avaliada através das médias mensais dos valores diários. As medidas ocorreram entre 04/1998 e 07/2001, em 22,85º; 08/2001 e 02/2003, em 12,85º; e de 03/2003 a 12/2007, em 32,85º, com medidas concomitantes no plano horizontal (referência). Os níveis das radiações global e direta nos planos inclinados foram inferiores no período de verão e superiores entre os equinócios, quando comparadas ao plano horizontal. A radiação difusa nas superfícies inclinadas foi inferior na maioria dos meses, com perdas de até 65%. Ocorreu uma tendência de aumento das diferenças entre as superfícies horizontal e inclinada com o incremento do ângulo em todas as componentes e frações da radiação incidente. A evolução anual das precipitações pluviométricas e da razão de nebulosidade afetou diretamente a transmissividade atmosférica das componentes direta e difusa na região.

Negative even grade mKdV hierarchy and its soliton solutions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Accelerating solutions of perfect fluid hydrodynamics for initial energy density and life-time measurements in heavy ion collisions

A new class of accelerating, exact, explicit and simple solutions of relativistic hydrodynamics is presented. Since these new solutions yield a finite rapidity distribution, they lead to an advanced estimate of the initial energy density and life-time of high energy heavy ion collisions. Accelerating solutions are also given for spherical expansions in arbitrary number of spatial dimensions.

Viscosity of aqueous carbohydrate solutions at different temperatures and concentrations

Experimental viscosity values of sucrose, glucose, and fructose aqueous solutions in a large range of temperatures (0 to 85 degrees C) and concentrations (10 to 60% w/w) that might be encountered in food processes were obtained in order to contribute to extending the available database of food properties. The temperature dependence of viscosity could be adequately described by the Arrhenius model, and the activation energy was well represented by a unique function of the solute volume fraction, valid for sucrose, glucose, and fructose solutions.

Smear layer removal capacity of disinfectant solutions used with and without EDTA for the irrigation of canals: a SEM study.

The purpose of this study was to carry out a scanning electron microscopic (SEM) analysis of the cleaning qualities and smear layer removal from root canal walls, instrumented and irrigated with 2.5% NaOCl, 2.0% chlorhexidine and saline solutions. Fifty extracted teeth were used in this study. All teeth were radiographed to determine the existence of a single canal. The crowns were cut at the cervical limit and the root canals were instrumented with K-type files up to size 45. During root canal preparation, irrigations were made with the different solutions being evaluated: Group 1: 2.5% NaOCl (10 roots); Group 2: 2.5% NaOCl and 17% EDTA for 2 minute (10 roots); Group 3: 2.0% chlorhexidine (10 roots); Group 4: 2.0% chlorhexidine and 17% EDTA for 2 minutes (10 roots); Group 5: saline solution (5 roots); Group 6: saline solution and 17% EDTA for 2 minutes (5 roots). After instrumentation, the canals were irrigated with each one of the solutions and the roots were cut in the buccolingual direction for SEM analysis, at the cervical, middle and apical thirds, to ascertain the presence or absence of smear layer and debris. SEM analysis was performed by three calibrated examiners and scores were submitted to Kruskal-Wallis test at the significance level of p = 5%. Results showed that the use of 17% EDTA decreased the smear layer significantly (p < 0.05) for all evaluated solutions in all thirds. When EDTA was not used, a significantly higher quantity of smear layer on the apical third was observed only in the NaOCl groups. The use of 17% EDTA was significant for debris removal except for the chlorhexidine groups. The following conclusion could be drawn: the use of 17% EDTA was necessary to enhance cleanness of the root canals.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011: The region in the decade of the emerging economies

Incluye Bibliografía

Analysis of hourly global, direct and diffuse solar radiations attenuation as a function of optical air mass

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

NUMERICAL AND ANALYTICAL VERIFICATION OF A MULTISCALE COMPUTATIONAL MODEL FOR IMPACT PROBLEMS IN HETEROGENEOUS VISCOELASTIC MATERIALS WITH EVOLVING DAMAGE

Composites are engineered materials that take advantage of the particular properties of each of its two or more constituents. They are designed to be stronger, lighter and to last longer which can lead to the creation of safer protection gear, more fuel efficient transportation methods and more affordable materials, among other examples. This thesis proposes a numerical and analytical verification of an in-house developed multiscale model for predicting the mechanical behavior of composite materials with various configurations subjected to impact loading. This verification is done by comparing the results obtained with analytical and numerical solutions with the results found when using the model. The model takes into account the heterogeneity of the materials that can only be noticed at smaller length scales, based on the fundamental structural properties of each of the composite’s constituents. This model can potentially reduce or eliminate the need of costly and time consuming experiments that are necessary for material characterization since it relies strictly upon the fundamental structural properties of each of the composite’s constituents. The results from simulations using the multiscale model were compared against results from direct simulations using over-killed meshes, which considered all heterogeneities explicitly in the global scale, indicating that the model is an accurate and fast tool to model composites under impact loads. Advisor: David H. Allen

Too Big to Ignore: Global Partnership on Small-Scale Fisheries Research - the Latin America and Caribbean network

Too Big to Ignore (TBTI; www.toobigtoignore.net) is a research network and knowledge mobilization partnership established to elevate the profile of small-scale fisheries (SSF), to argue against their marginalization in national and international policies, and to develop research and governance capacity to address global fisheries challenges. Network participants and partners are conducting global and comparative analyses, as well as in-depth studies of SSF in the context of local complexity and dynamics, along with a thorough examination of governance challenges, to encourage careful consideration of this sector in local, regional and global policy arenas. Comprising 15 partners and 62 researchers from 27 countries, TBTI conducts activities in five regions of the world. In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, we are taking a participative approach to investigate and promote stewardship and self-governance in SSF, seeking best practices and success stories that could be replicated elsewhere. As well, the region will focus to promote sustainable livelihoods of coastal communities. Key activities include workshops and stakeholder meetings, facilitation of policy dialogue and networking, as well as assessing local capacity needs and training. Currently, LAC members are putting together publications that examine key issues concerning SSF in the region and best practices, with a first focus on ecosystem stewardship. Other planned deliverables include comparative analysis, a regional profile on the top research issues on SSF, and a synthesis of SSF knowledge in LAC

Semantic Publishing: issues, solutions and new trends in scholarly publishing within the Semantic Web era

This work is concerned with the increasing relationships between two distinct multidisciplinary research fields, Semantic Web technologies and scholarly publishing, that in this context converge into one precise research topic: Semantic Publishing. In the spirit of the original aim of Semantic Publishing, i.e. the improvement of scientific communication by means of semantic technologies, this thesis proposes theories, formalisms and applications for opening up semantic publishing to an effective interaction between scholarly documents (e.g., journal articles) and their related semantic and formal descriptions. In fact, the main aim of this work is to increase the users' comprehension of documents and to allow document enrichment, discovery and linkage to document-related resources and contexts, such as other articles and raw scientific data. In order to achieve these goals, this thesis investigates and proposes solutions for three of the main issues that semantic publishing promises to address, namely: the need of tools for linking document text to a formal representation of its meaning, the lack of complete metadata schemas for describing documents according to the publishing vocabulary, and absence of effective user interfaces for easily acting on semantic publishing models and theories.