Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution

The ability to run General Circulation Models (GCMs) at ever-higher horizontal resolutions has meant that tropical cyclone simulations are increasingly credible. A hierarchy of atmosphere-only GCMs, based on the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1), with horizontal resolution increasing from approximately 270km to 60km (at 50N), is used to systematically investigate the impact of spatial resolution on the simulation of global tropical cyclone activity, independent of model formulation. Tropical cyclones are extracted from ensemble simulations and reanalyses of comparable resolutions using a feature-tracking algorithm. Resolution is critical for simulating storm intensity and convergence to observed storm intensities is not achieved with the model hierarchy. Resolution is less critical for simulating the annual number of tropical cyclones and their geographical distribution, which are well captured at resolutions of 135km or higher, particularly for Northern Hemisphere basins. Simulating the interannual variability of storm occurrence requires resolutions of 100km or higher; however, the level of skill is basin dependent. Higher resolution GCMs are increasingly able to capture the interannual variability of the large-scale environmental conditions that contribute to tropical cyclogenesis. Different environmental factors contribute to the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the different basins: in the North Atlantic basin the vertical wind shear, potential intensity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant, while in the North Pacific basins mid-level relative humidity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant. Model resolution is crucial for a realistic simulation of tropical cyclone behaviour, and high-resolution GCMs are found to be valuable tools for investigating the global location and frequency of tropical cyclones.

Altitude acts as an environmental filter on phylogenetic composition, traits and diversity in bee communities.

Knowledge about the phylogeny and ecology of communities along environmental gradients helps to disentangle the role of competition-driven processes and environmental filtering for community assembly. In this study, we evaluated patterns in species richness, phylogenetic structure and life-history traits of bee communities along altitudinal gradients in the Alps, Germany. We found a linear decline in species richness and abundance but increasing phylogenetic clustering in communities with increasing altitude. The proportion of social- and ground-nesting species, as well as mean body size and altitudinal range of bee communities, increased with increasing altitude, whereas the mean geographical distribution decreased. Our results suggest that community assembly at high altitudes is dominated by environmental filtering effects, whereas the relative importance of competition increases at low altitudes. We conclude that inherent phylogenetic and ecological species attributes at high altitudes pose a threat for less competitive alpine specialists with ongoing climate change.

IMILAST: a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions.

The sources of phosphorus in the waters of Great Britain

Total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads to watercourses of the River Basin Districts (RBDs) of Great Britain (GB) were estimated using inventories of industrial P loads and estimates of P loads from sewage treatment works and diffuse P loads calculated using region-specific export coefficients for particular land cover classes combined with census data for agricultural stocking densities and human populations. The TP load to GB waters was estimated to be 60 kt yr(-1), of which households contributed 73, agriculture contributed 20, industry contributed 3, and 4 came from background sources. The SRP load to GB waters was estimated to be 47 kt yr(-1), of which households contributed 78, agriculture contributed 13, industry contributed 4, and 6 came from background Sources. The 'average' area-normalized TP and SRP loads to GB waters approximated 2.4 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) and 1.8 kg ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. A consideration of uncertainties in the data contributing to these estimates suggested that the TP load to GB waters might lie between 33 and 68 kt yr(-1), with agriculture contributing between 10 and 28 of the TP load. These estimates are consistent with recent appraisals of annual TP and SRP loads to GB coastal waters and area-normalized TP loads from their catchments. Estimates of the contributions of RBDs to these P loads were consistent with the geographical distribution of P concentrations in GB rivers and recent assessments of surface waters at risk from P Pollution.

The endemic flora of Morocco

Morocco is characterized by high vascular plant diversity with an estimated 4200 species and subspecies of which 22% are endemic. This study presents an updated list of the endemic species in the Moroccan flora following the classification of APG III, including comments on their geographical distribution and ecoregions. The endemic flora contains 879 species and subspecies in 55 families and 287 genera. Three new combinations are proposed. The High Atlas, Middle Atlas and the Rif mountains are the three richest floristic regions for endemic species, but the endemics are not restricted to these floristic regions only. Conservation efforts are therefore necessary in both the Mediteranean and Saharan ecoregions to preserve the biodiversity and botanical richness of Morocco. In this updated checklist we propose a new combination (Verbascum demnatensis) and a new name (Verbascum hamidoui) in the genus Verbascum (Scrophulariaceae).

Parameter spaces of environmental fields responsible for cyclone development from tropics to extratropics

Objective cyclone tracking applied to a 30-yr reanalysis dataset shows that cyclone development in the summer and autumn seasons is active in the tropics and extratropics and inactive in the subtropics. To understand this geographically bimodal distribution of cyclone development associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones quantitatively, the direct relationship between cyclone types and their environments are assessed by using a parameter space of environmental variables [environmental parameter space (EPS)]. The number of cyclones is analyzed in terms of two different factors: the environmental conditions favorable for cyclone development and the area size that satisfies the favorable condition. The EPS analysis is mainly conducted for two representative environmental parameters that are commonly used for cyclone analysis: potential intensity for tropical cyclones and baroclinicity for extratropical cyclones. The geographically bimodal distribution is attributed to the high sensitivity of the cyclone development to the change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. In addition, the bimodal distribution is partly attributed to the rapid change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. The EPS analysis also shows that other environmental parameters, including relative humidity and vertical velocity, may enhance the contrast between the tropics (extratropics) and subtropics, whereas they are not essential for determining cyclone types. The relationship between cyclones and their environments is found to be similar between the hemispheres in the EPS, although the geographical distribution, particularly the longitudinal uniformity, is markedly different between the hemispheres.

Tropical palaeoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)simulations and paleodata.

Seventeen simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO2, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs.

The current status of anticoagulant resistance in rats and mice in the UK

Introduction: Resistance to anticoagulants in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) and house mice (Mus domesticus) has been studied in the UK since the early 1960s. In no other country in the world is our understanding of resistance phenomena so extensive and profound. Almost every aspect of resistance in the key rodent target species has been examined in laboratory and field trials and results obtained by independent researchers have been published. It is the principal purpose of this document to present a short synopsis of this information. More recently, however, the development of genetical techniques has provided a definitive means of detection of resistant genotypes among pest rodent populations. Preliminary information from a number of such surveys will also be presented. Resistance in Norway rats: A total of nine different anticoagulant resistance mutations (single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs) are found among Norway rats in the UK. In no other country worldwide are present so many different forms of Norway rat resistance. Among these nine SNPs, five are known to confer on rats that carry them a significant degree of resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides. These mutations are: L128Q, Y139S, L120Q, Y139C and Y139F. The latter three mutations confer, to varying degrees, practical resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, the two second-generation anticoagulants in predominant use in the UK. It is the recommendation of RRAG that bromadiolone and difenacoum should not be used against rats carrying the L120Q, Y139C and Y139F mutations because this will promote the spread of resistance and jeopardise the long-term efficacy of anticoagulants. Brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against these three genotypes but cannot presently be used because of the regulatory restriction that they can only be applied against rats that are living and feeding predominantly indoors. Our understanding of the geographical distribution of Norway rat resistance in incomplete but is rapidly increasing. In particular, the mapping of the focus of L120Q Norway rat resistance in central-southern England by DNA sequencing is well advanced. We now know that rats carrying this resistance mutation are present across a large part of the counties of Hampshire, Berkshire and Wiltshire, and the resistance spreads into Avon, Oxfordshire and Surrey. It is also found, perhaps as outlier foci, in south-west Scotland and East Sussex. L120Q is currently the most severe form of anticoagulant resistance found in Norway rats and is prevalent over a considerable part of central-southern England. A second form of advanced Norway rat resistance is conferred by the Y139C mutation. This is noteworthy because it occurs in at least four different foci that are widely geographically dispersed, namely in Dumfries and Galloway, Gloucestershire, Yorkshire and Norfolk. Once again, bromadiolone and difenacoum are not recommended for use against rats carrying this genotype and a concern of RRAG is that continued applications of resisted active substances may result in Y139C becoming more or less ubiquitous across much of the UK. Another type of advanced resistance, the Y139F mutation, is present in Kent and Sussex. This means that Norway rats, carrying some degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, are now found from the south coast of Kent, west into the city of Bristol, to Yorkshire in the north-east and to the south-west of Scotland. This difficult situation can only deteriorate further where these three genotypes exist and resisted anticoagulants are predominantly used against them. Resistance in house mice: House mouse is not so well understood but the presence in the UK of two resistant genotypes, L128S and Y139C, is confirmed. House mice are naturally tolerant to anticoagulants and such is the nature of this tolerance, and the presence of genetical resistance, that house mice resistant to the first-generation anticoagulants are considered to be widespread in the UK. Consequently, baits containing warfarin, sodium warfarin, chlorophacinone and coumatetralyl are not approved for use against mice. This regulatory position is endorsed by RRAG. Baits containing brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against house mice and may be applied in practice because house mouse infestations are predominantly indoors. There are some reports of resistance among mice in some areas to the second-generation anticoagulant bromadiolone, while difenacoum remains largely efficacious. Alternatives to anticoagulants: The use of habitat manipulation, that is the removal of harbourage, denial of the availability of food and the prevention of ingress to structures, is an essential component of sustainable rodent pest management. All are of importance in the management of resistant rodents and have the advantage of not selecting for resistant genotypes. The use of these techniques may be particularly valuable in preventing the build-up of rat infestations. However, none can be used to remove any sizeable extant rat infestation and for practical reasons their use against house mice is problematic. Few alternative chemical interventions are available in the European Union because of the removal from the market of zinc phosphide, calciferol and bromethalin. Our virtual complete reliance on the use of anticoagulants for the chemical control of rodents in the UK, and more widely in the EU, calls for improved schemes for resistance management. Of course, these might involve the use of alternatives to anticoagulant rodenticides. Also important is an increasing knowledge of the distribution of resistance mutations in rats and mice and the use of only fully effective anticoagulants against them.

Studies on Anopheles (Kerteszia) homunculus Komp (Diptera: Culicidae)

The present findings suggest that Anopheles (Kerteszia) homunculus may comprise more than one species. The rDNA ITS2 sequence data corroborate the presence of An. homunculus l.s. in Mata Atlantica, southern Brazil, and suggest that specimens from Trinidad may belong to an unnamed morphologically similar species. There is a need for additional studies to establish the geographical distribution of An. homunculus l.s. in continental South America and in Trinidad, especially in southern Mata Atlantica, Brazil.

Forest-obligate Sabethes mosquitoes suggest palaeoecological perturbations

The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

Redescription of Culex (Culex) dolosus (Lynch Arribalzaga) (Diptera : Culicidae), based on specimens from Pico do Itapeva, Serra da Mantiqueira, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Culex (Culex) dolosus (Lynch Arribalzaga, 1891) is re-described and compared with Cx. eduardoi Casal & Garcia ( 1968) based on morphological characteristics. Both species are morphologically similar, and they have been largely misidentified throughout Brazil. Adult male and female, fourth instar larvae, and pupae of Cx. dolosus were examined, based on specimens from Pico do Itapeva, Pindamonhangaba Municipality, Serra da Mantiqueira, Sao Paulo State, southern Brazil. Male genitalia, larvae and pupae are illustrated. Geographical distribution is summarized from published records, and information on bionomics is based on the literature and field data.

LAURENCIA MARILZAE (CERAMIALES, RHODOPHYTA) FROM THE MEXICAN CARIBBEAN: A NEW RECORD FOR THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC

Laurencia marilzae Gil-Rodriguez, Senties & MT Fujii is recorded for the first time for the tropical western Atlantic Ocean, occurring in Isla Mujeres, Quintana Roo, Mexican Caribbean. The specimens were collected in November 2008 and June 2009, growing epilithically in the lower intertidal zone on moderately exposed rocky shores. This species is characterized by its distinctive yellow-orange color in the natural environment, four pericentral cells per vegetative axial segment, the presence of secondary pit-connections between adjacent cortical cells, which are markedly projecting at the apices, and by the presence of one ""corp en cerise"" per cell in all cells of the thallus: cortical, medullary, including pericentral and axial cells, and trichoblasts. Morphological similarities and molecular data support the determination of this material as L. marilzae. The present study expands the geographical distribution of L. marilzae to the Caribbean Sea in the tropical Western Atlantic Ocean.

The occurrence of Laurencia marilzae (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) in Brazil based on morphological and molecular data

Laurencia marilzae is recorded for the first time from the western Atlantic Ocean; it was found in Laje de Santos Marine State Park, Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. The specimens were collected in the rocky subtidal zone from 7 to 15 m depth. The most distinctive characteristic of this species is the presence of corps en cerise in all cells of the thallus, including cortex, medulla, and trichoblasts. The phylogenetic position of the species was inferred by analysis of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences from 43 taxa, using two other rhodomelacean taxa and two members of the Ceramiaceae as outgroups. Within the Laurencia assemblage, L. marilzae from Brazil and from the Canary Islands ( type locality) formed a distinctive lineage sister to all other Laurencia species analyzed. Male plants are described for the first time. This study expands the geographical distribution of L. marilzae to the western Atlantic Ocean.

Palisada flagellifera (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from the Canary Islands, Spain: a new record for the eastern Atlantic Ocean based on morphological and molecular evidence

Palisada flagellifera (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) is recorded for the first time in the eastern Atlantic Ocean off Tenerife, La Gomera, La Palma and Fuerteventura, Canary Islands, Spain. The specimens were collected in 2006-2009 growing from the lower intertidal to subtidal zones to 2 m depth at sites exposed to wave action. The species possesses a palisade-like arrangement of cortical cells in cross section, lacks secondary pit connections between them, and has tetrasporangia produced by three fertile pericentral cells (the third and the fourth additional and the second that becomes fertile), and a right-angled arrangement of tetrasporangia. Gametangia were not observed. The phylogenetic relationships were inferred by analyses of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences from 46 taxa. The Canarian and Brazilian P. flagellifera specimens formed a highly supported clade with a low level of genetic variation in the rbcL sequences (0.02-0.04%), confirming that they are the same taxonomic entity. This study expands the geographical distribution of P. flagellifera to the eastern Atlantic Ocean.