Contribution to the design of waveguide-fed compound-slot arrays by means of equivalent circuit modelling

Los arrays de ranuras son sistemas de antennas conocidos desde los años 40, principalmente destinados a formar parte de sistemas rádar de navíos de combate y grandes estaciones terrenas donde el tamaño y el peso no eran altamente restrictivos. Con el paso de los años y debido sobre todo a importantes avances en materiales y métodos de fabricación, el rango de aplicaciones de este tipo de sistemas radiantes creció en gran medida. Desde nuevas tecnologías biomédicas, sistemas anticolisión en automóviles y navegación en aviones, enlaces de comunicaciones de alta tasa binaria y corta distancia e incluso sistemas embarcados en satélites para la transmisión de señal de televisión. Dentro de esta familia de antennas, existen dos grupos que destacan por ser los más utilizados: las antennas de placas paralelas con las ranuras distribuidas de forma circular o espiral y las agrupaciones de arrays lineales construidos sobre guia de onda. Continuando con las tareas de investigación desarrolladas durante los últimos años en el Instituto de Tecnología de Tokyo y en el Grupo de Radiación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, la totalidad de esta tesis se centra en este último grupo, aunque como se verá se separa en gran medida de las técnicas de diseño y metodologías convencionales. Los arrays de ranuras rectas y paralelas al eje de la guía rectangular que las alimenta son, sin ninguna duda, los modelos más empleados debido a la fiabilidad que presentan a altas frecuencias, su capacidad para gestionar grandes cantidades de potencia y la sencillez de su diseño y fabricación. Sin embargo, también presentan desventajas como estrecho ancho de banda en pérdidas de retorno y rápida degradación del diagrama de radiación con la frecuencia. Éstas son debidas a la naturaleza resonante de sus elementos radiantes: al perder la resonancia, el sistema global se desajusta y sus prestaciones degeneran. En arrays bidimensionales de slots rectos, el campo eléctrico queda polarizado sobre el plano transversal a las ranuras, correspondiéndose con el plano de altos lóbulos secundarios. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un método sistemático de diseño de arrays de ranuras inclinadas y desplazadas del centro (en lo sucesivo “ranuras compuestas”), definido en 1971 como uno de los desafíos a superar dentro del mundo del diseño de antennas. La técnica empleada se basa en el Método de los Momentos, la Teoría de Circuitos y la Teoría de Conexión Aleatoria de Matrices de Dispersión. Al tratarse de un método circuital, la primera parte de la tesis se corresponde con el estudio de la aplicabilidad de las redes equivalentes fundamentales, su capacidad para recrear fenómenos físicos de la ranura, las limitaciones y ventajas que presentan para caracterizar las diferentes configuraciones de slot compuesto. Se profundiza en las diferencias entre las redes en T y en ! y se condiciona la selección de una u otra dependiendo del tipo de elemento radiante. Una vez seleccionado el tipo de red a emplear en el diseño del sistema, se ha desarrollado un algoritmo de cascadeo progresivo desde el puerto alimentador hacia el cortocircuito que termina el modelo. Este algoritmo es independiente del número de elementos, la frecuencia central de funcionamiento, del ángulo de inclinación de las ranuras y de la red equivalente seleccionada (en T o en !). Se basa en definir el diseño del array como un Problema de Satisfacción de Condiciones (en inglés, Constraint Satisfaction Problem) que se resuelve por un método de Búsqueda en Retroceso (Backtracking algorithm). Como resultado devuelve un circuito equivalente del array completo adaptado a su entrada y cuyos elementos consumen una potencia acorde a una distribución de amplitud dada para el array. En toda agrupación de antennas, el acoplo mutuo entre elementos a través del campo radiado representa uno de los principales problemas para el ingeniero y sus efectos perjudican a las prestaciones globales del sistema, tanto en adaptación como en capacidad de radiación. El empleo de circuito equivalente se descartó por la dificultad que suponía la caracterización de estos efectos y su inclusión en la etapa de diseño. En esta tesis doctoral el acoplo también se ha modelado como una red equivalente cuyos elementos son transformadores ideales y admitancias, conectada al conjunto de redes equivalentes que representa el array. Al comparar los resultados estimados en términos de pérdidas de retorno y radiación con aquellos obtenidos a partir de programas comerciales populares como CST Microwave Studio se confirma la validez del método aquí propuesto, el primer método de diseño sistemático de arrays de ranuras compuestos alimentados por guía de onda rectangular. Al tratarse de ranuras no resonantes, el ancho de banda en pérdidas de retorno es mucho mas amplio que el que presentan arrays de slots rectos. Para arrays bidimensionales, el ángulo de inclinación puede ajustarse de manera que el campo quede polarizado en los planos de bajos lóbulos secundarios. Además de simulaciones se han diseñado, construido y medido dos prototipos centrados en la frecuencia de 12GHz, de seis y diez elementos. Las medidas de pérdidas de retorno y diagrama de radiación revelan excelentes resultados, certificando la bondad del método genuino Method of Moments - Forward Matching Procedure desarrollado a lo largo de esta tésis. Abstract The slot antenna arrays are well known systems from the decade of 40s, mainly intended to be part of radar systems of large warships and terrestrial stations where size and weight were not highly restrictive. Over the years, mainly due to significant advances in materials and manufacturing methods, the range of applications of this type of radiating systems grew significantly. From new biomedical technologies, collision avoidance systems in cars and aircraft navigation, short communication links with high bit transfer rate and even embedded systems in satellites for television broadcast. Within this family of antennas, two groups stand out as being the most frequent in the literature: parallel plate antennas with slots placed in a circular or spiral distribution and clusters of waveguide linear arrays. To continue the vast research work carried out during the last decades in the Tokyo Institute of Technology and in the Radiation Group at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, this thesis focuses on the latter group, although it represents a technique that drastically breaks with traditional design methodologies. The arrays of slots straight and parallel to the axis of the feeding rectangular waveguide are without a doubt the most used models because of the reliability that they present at high frequencies, its ability to handle large amounts of power and their simplicity of design and manufacturing. However, there also exist disadvantages as narrow bandwidth in return loss and rapid degradation of the radiation pattern with frequency. These are due to the resonant nature of radiating elements: away from the resonance status, the overall system performance and radiation pattern diminish. For two-dimensional arrays of straight slots, the electric field is polarized transverse to the radiators, corresponding to the plane of high side-lobe level. This thesis aims to develop a systematic method of designing arrays of angled and displaced slots (hereinafter "compound slots"), defined in 1971 as one of the challenges to overcome in the world of antenna design. The used technique is based on the Method of Moments, Circuit Theory and the Theory of Scattering Matrices Connection. Being a circuitry-based method, the first part of this dissertation corresponds to the study of the applicability of the basic equivalent networks, their ability to recreate the slot physical phenomena, their limitations and advantages presented to characterize different compound slot configurations. It delves into the differences of T and ! and determines the selection of the most suitable one depending on the type of radiating element. Once the type of network to be used in the system design is selected, a progressive algorithm called Forward Matching Procedure has been developed to connect the proper equivalent networks from the feeder port to shorted ending. This algorithm is independent of the number of elements, the central operating frequency, the angle of inclination of the slots and selected equivalent network (T or ! networks). It is based on the definition of the array design as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem, solved by means of a Backtracking Algorithm. As a result, the method returns an equivalent circuit of the whole array which is matched at its input port and whose elements consume a power according to a given amplitude distribution for the array. In any group of antennas, the mutual coupling between elements through the radiated field represents one of the biggest problems that the engineer faces and its effects are detrimental to the overall performance of the system, both in radiation capabilities and return loss. The employment of an equivalent circuit for the array design was discarded by some authors because of the difficulty involved in the characterization of the coupling effects and their inclusion in the design stage. In this thesis the coupling has also been modeled as an equivalent network whose elements are ideal transformers and admittances connected to the set of equivalent networks that represent the antennas of the array. By comparing the estimated results in terms of return loss and radiation with those obtained from popular commercial software as CST Microwave Studio, the validity of the proposed method is fully confirmed, representing the first method of systematic design of compound-slot arrays fed by rectangular waveguide. Since these slots do not work under the resonant status, the bandwidth in return loss is much wider than the longitudinal-slot arrays. For the case of two-dimensional arrays, the angle of inclination can be adjusted so that the field is polarized at the low side-lobe level plane. Besides the performed full-wave simulations two prototypes of six and ten elements for the X-band have been designed, built and measured, revealing excellent results and agreement with the expected results. These facts certify that the genuine technique Method of Moments - Matching Forward Procedure developed along this thesis is valid and trustable.

Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of primary dispersal in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) stands in the Northern Plateau (Spain)

Natural regeneration in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) managed forests in the Spanish Northern Plateau is not achieved successfully under current silviculture practices, constituting a main concern for forest managers. We modelled spatio-temporal features of primary dispersal to test whether (a) present low stand densities constrain natural regeneration success and (b) seed release is a climate-controlled process. The present study is based on data collected from a 6 years seed trap experiment considering different regeneration felling intensities. From a spatial perspective, we attempted alternate established kernels under different data distribution assumptions to fit a spatial model able to predict P. pinea seed rain. Due to P. pinea umbrella-like crown, models were adapted to account for crown effect through correction of distances between potential seed arrival locations and seed sources. In addition, individual tree fecundity was assessed independently from existing models, improving parameter estimation stability. Seed rain simulation enabled to calculate seed dispersal indexes for diverse silvicultural regeneration treatments. The selected spatial model of best fit (Weibull, Poisson assumption) predicted a highly clumped dispersal pattern that resulted in a proportion of gaps where no seed arrival is expected (dispersal limitation) between 0.25 and 0.30 for intermediate intensity regeneration fellings and over 0.50 for intense fellings. To describe the temporal pattern, the proportion of seeds released during monthly intervals was modelled as a function of climate variables – rainfall events – through a linear model that considered temporal autocorrelation, whereas cone opening took place over a temperature threshold. Our findings suggest the application of less intensive regeneration fellings, to be carried out after years of successful seedling establishment and, seasonally, subsequent to the main rainfall period (late fall). This schedule would avoid dispersal limitation and would allow for a complete seed release. These modifications in present silviculture practices would produce a more efficient seed shadow in managed stands.

Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.

Automatic physical activity pattern recognition and meal intake modelling in type 1 diabetes for their inclusion in artificial pancreas systems

La diabetes comprende un conjunto de enfermedades metabólicas que se caracterizan por concentraciones de glucosa en sangre anormalmente altas. En el caso de la diabetes tipo 1 (T1D, por sus siglas en inglés), esta situación es debida a una ausencia total de secreción endógena de insulina, lo que impide a la mayoría de tejidos usar la glucosa. En tales circunstancias, se hace necesario el suministro exógeno de insulina para preservar la vida del paciente; no obstante, siempre con la precaución de evitar caídas agudas de la glucemia por debajo de los niveles recomendados de seguridad. Además de la administración de insulina, las ingestas y la actividad física son factores fundamentales que influyen en la homeostasis de la glucosa. En consecuencia, una gestión apropiada de la T1D debería incorporar estos dos fenómenos fisiológicos, en base a una identificación y un modelado apropiado de los mismos y de sus sorrespondientes efectos en el balance glucosa-insulina. En particular, los sistemas de páncreas artificial –ideados para llevar a cabo un control automático de los niveles de glucemia del paciente– podrían beneficiarse de la integración de esta clase de información. La primera parte de esta tesis doctoral cubre la caracterización del efecto agudo de la actividad física en los perfiles de glucosa. Con este objetivo se ha llevado a cabo una revisión sistemática de la literatura y meta-análisis que determinen las respuestas ante varias modalidades de ejercicio para pacientes con T1D, abordando esta caracterización mediante unas magnitudes que cuantifican las tasas de cambio en la glucemia a lo largo del tiempo. Por otro lado, una identificación fiable de los periodos con actividad física es un requisito imprescindible para poder proveer de esa información a los sistemas de páncreas artificial en condiciones libres y ambulatorias. Por esta razón, la segunda parte de esta tesis está enfocada a la propuesta y evaluación de un sistema automático diseñado para reconocer periodos de actividad física, clasificando su nivel de intensidad (ligera, moderada o vigorosa); así como, en el caso de periodos vigorosos, identificando también la modalidad de ejercicio (aeróbica, mixta o de fuerza). En este sentido, ambos aspectos tienen una influencia específica en el mecanismo metabólico que suministra la energía para llevar a cabo el ejercicio y, por tanto, en las respuestas glucémicas en T1D. En este trabajo se aplican varias combinaciones de técnicas de aprendizaje máquina y reconocimiento de patrones sobre la fusión multimodal de señales de acelerometría y ritmo cardíaco, las cuales describen tanto aspectos mecánicos del movimiento como la respuesta fisiológica del sistema cardiovascular ante el ejercicio. Después del reconocimiento de patrones se incorpora también un módulo de filtrado temporal para sacar partido a la considerable coherencia temporal presente en los datos, una redundancia que se origina en el hecho de que en la práctica, las tendencias en cuanto a actividad física suelen mantenerse estables a lo largo de cierto tiempo, sin fluctuaciones rápidas y repetitivas. El tercer bloque de esta tesis doctoral aborda el tema de las ingestas en el ámbito de la T1D. En concreto, se propone una serie de modelos compartimentales y se evalúan éstos en función de su capacidad para describir matemáticamente el efecto remoto de las concetraciones plasmáticas de insulina exógena sobre las tasas de eleiminación de la glucosa atribuible a la ingesta; un aspecto hasta ahora no incorporado en los principales modelos de paciente para T1D existentes en la literatura. Los datos aquí utilizados se obtuvieron gracias a un experimento realizado por el Institute of Metabolic Science (Universidad de Cambridge, Reino Unido) con 16 pacientes jóvenes. En el experimento, de tipo ‘clamp’ con objetivo variable, se replicaron los perfiles individuales de glucosa, según lo observado durante una visita preliminar tras la ingesta de una cena con o bien alta carga glucémica, o bien baja. Los seis modelos mecanísticos evaluados constaban de: a) submodelos de doble compartimento para las masas de trazadores de glucosa, b) un submodelo de único compartimento para reflejar el efecto remoto de la insulina, c) dos tipos de activación de este mismo efecto remoto (bien lineal, bien con un punto de corte), y d) diversas condiciones iniciales. ABSTRACT Diabetes encompasses a series of metabolic diseases characterized by abnormally high blood glucose concentrations. In the case of type 1 diabetes (T1D), this situation is caused by a total absence of endogenous insulin secretion, which impedes the use of glucose by most tissues. In these circumstances, exogenous insulin supplies are necessary to maintain patient’s life; although caution is always needed to avoid acute decays in glycaemia below safe levels. In addition to insulin administrations, meal intakes and physical activity are fundamental factors influencing glucose homoeostasis. Consequently, a successful management of T1D should incorporate these two physiological phenomena, based on an appropriate identification and modelling of these events and their corresponding effect on the glucose-insulin balance. In particular, artificial pancreas systems –designed to perform an automated control of patient’s glycaemia levels– may benefit from the integration of this type of information. The first part of this PhD thesis covers the characterization of the acute effect of physical activity on glucose profiles. With this aim, a systematic review of literature and metaanalyses are conduced to determine responses to various exercise modalities in patients with T1D, assessed via rates-of-change magnitudes to quantify temporal variations in glycaemia. On the other hand, a reliable identification of physical activity periods is an essential prerequisite to feed artificial pancreas systems with information concerning exercise in ambulatory, free-living conditions. For this reason, the second part of this thesis focuses on the proposal and evaluation of an automatic system devised to recognize physical activity, classifying its intensity level (light, moderate or vigorous) and for vigorous periods, identifying also its exercise modality (aerobic, mixed or resistance); since both aspects have a distinctive influence on the predominant metabolic pathway involved in fuelling exercise, and therefore, in the glycaemic responses in T1D. Various combinations of machine learning and pattern recognition techniques are applied on the fusion of multi-modal signal sources, namely: accelerometry and heart rate measurements, which describe both mechanical aspects of movement and the physiological response of the cardiovascular system to exercise. An additional temporal filtering module is incorporated after recognition in order to exploit the considerable temporal coherence (i.e. redundancy) present in data, which stems from the fact that in practice, physical activity trends are often maintained stable along time, instead of fluctuating rapid and repeatedly. The third block of this PhD thesis addresses meal intakes in the context of T1D. In particular, a number of compartmental models are proposed and compared in terms of their ability to describe mathematically the remote effect of exogenous plasma insulin concentrations on the disposal rates of meal-attributable glucose, an aspect which had not yet been incorporated to the prevailing T1D patient models in literature. Data were acquired in an experiment conduced at the Institute of Metabolic Science (University of Cambridge, UK) on 16 young patients. A variable-target glucose clamp replicated their individual glucose profiles, observed during a preliminary visit after ingesting either a high glycaemic-load or a low glycaemic-load evening meal. The six mechanistic models under evaluation here comprised: a) two-compartmental submodels for glucose tracer masses, b) a single-compartmental submodel for insulin’s remote effect, c) two types of activations for this remote effect (either linear or with a ‘cut-off’ point), and d) diverse forms of initial conditions.

A study of the mechanical behaviour of the human aortic artery by means of non-linear finite element models

En la presente tesis desarrollamos una estrategia para la simulación numérica del comportamiento mecánico de la aorta humana usando modelos de elementos finitos no lineales. Prestamos especial atención a tres aspectos claves relacionados con la biomecánica de los tejidos blandos. Primero, el análisis del comportamiento anisótropo característico de los tejidos blandos debido a las familias de fibras de colágeno. Segundo, el análisis del ablandamiento presentado por los vasos sanguíneos cuando estos soportan cargas fuera del rango de funcionamiento fisiológico. Y finalmente, la inclusión de las tensiones residuales en las simulaciones en concordancia con el experimento de apertura de ángulo. El análisis del daño se aborda mediante dos aproximaciones diferentes. En la primera aproximación se presenta una formulación de daño local con regularización. Esta formulación tiene dos ingredientes principales. Por una parte, usa los principios de la teoría de la fisura difusa para garantizar la objetividad de los resultados con diferentes mallas. Por otra parte, usa el modelo bidimensional de Hodge-Petruska para describir el comportamiento mesoscópico de los fibriles. Partiendo de este modelo mesoscópico, las propiedades macroscópicas de las fibras de colágeno son obtenidas a través de un proceso de homogenización. En la segunda aproximación se presenta un modelo de daño no-local enriquecido con el gradiente de la variable de daño. El modelo se construye a partir del enriquecimiento de la función de energía con un término que contiene el gradiente material de la variable de daño no-local. La inclusión de este término asegura una regularización implícita de la implementación por elementos finitos, dando lugar a resultados de las simulaciones que no dependen de la malla. La aplicabilidad de este último modelo a problemas de biomecánica se estudia por medio de una simulación de un procedimiento quirúrgico típico conocido como angioplastia de balón. In the present thesis we develop a framework for the numerical simulation of the mechanical behaviour of the human aorta using non-linear finite element models. Special attention is paid to three key aspects related to the biomechanics of soft tissues. First, the modelling of the characteristic anisotropic behaviour of the softue due to the collagen fibre families. Secondly, the modelling of damage-related softening that blood vessels exhibit when subjected to loads beyond their physiological range. And finally, the inclusion of the residual stresses in the simulations in accordance with the opening-angle experiment The modelling of damage is addressed with two major and different approaches. In the first approach a continuum local damage formulation with regularisation is presented. This formulation has two principal ingredients. On the one hand, it makes use of the principles of the smeared crack theory to avoid the mesh size dependence of the structural response in softening. On the other hand, it uses a Hodge-Petruska bidimensional model to describe the fibrils as staggered arrays of tropocollagen molecules, and from this mesoscopic model the macroscopic material properties of the collagen fibres are obtained using an homogenisation process. In the second approach a non-local gradient-enhanced damage formulation is introduced. The model is built around the enhancement of the free energy function by means of a term that contains the referential gradient of the non-local damage variable. The inclusion of this term ensures an implicit regularisation of the finite element implementation, yielding mesh-objective results of the simulations. The applicability of the later model to biomechanically-related problems is studied by means of the simulation of a typical surgical procedure, namely, the balloon angioplasty.

Operational short term health impact assessment of air pollution modelling system over Europe

The last decade, scientific studies have indicated an association between air pollution to which people are exposed and wide range of adverse health outcomes. We have developed a tool which is based on a model (MM5-CMAQ) running over Europe with 50 km spatial resolution, based on EMEP annual emissions, to produce a short-term forecast of the impact on health. In order to estimate the mortality change (forecasted for the next 24 hours) we have chosen a log-linear (Poisson) regression form to estimate the concentration-response function. The parameters involved in the C-R function have been estimated based on epidemiological studies, which have been published. Finally, we have derived the relationship between concentration change and mortality change from the C-R function which is the final health impact function.

Mathematical modelling of neural processes within the oculomotor system

It is presented a mathematical model of the oculomotor plant, based on experimental data in cats. The system that generates, from the neuronal processes at the motoneuron, the control signals to the eye muscles that moves the eye. In contrast with previous models, that base the eye movement related motoneuron behavior on a first order linear differential equation, non-linear effects are described: A dependency on the eye angular position of the model parameters.

Modelling logical expressions exercises

Exercises of application of the systematic procedure to derive linear inequalities for logic expressions (Ejercicios de aplicación del método sistemático de obtención de restricciones lineales para expresiones lógicas).

A Finite Element Numerical Algorithm for Modelling and Data Fitting in Complex Systems

Numerical modelling methodologies are important by their application to engineering and scientific problems, because there are processes where analytical mathematical expressions cannot be obtained to model them. When the only available information is a set of experimental values for the variables that determine the state of the system, the modelling problem is equivalent to determining the hyper-surface that best fits the data. This paper presents a methodology based on the Galerkin formulation of the finite elements method to obtain representations of relationships that are defined a priori, between a set of variables: y = z(x1, x2,...., xd). These representations are generated from the values of the variables in the experimental data. The approximation, piecewise, is an element of a Sobolev space and has derivatives defined in a general sense into this space. The using of this approach results in the need of inverting a linear system with a structure that allows a fast solver algorithm. The algorithm can be used in a variety of fields, being a multidisciplinary tool. The validity of the methodology is studied considering two real applications: a problem in hydrodynamics and a problem of engineering related to fluids, heat and transport in an energy generation plant. Also a test of the predictive capacity of the methodology is performed using a cross-validation method.

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple texture-based liberation modelling of ores

Mineralogical analysis is often used to assess the liberation properties of particles. A direct method of estimating liberation is to actually break particles and then directly obtain liberation information from applying mineralogical analysis to each size-class of the product. Another technique is to artificially apply random breakage to the feed particle sections to estimate the resultant distribution of product particle sections. This technique provides a useful alternative estimation method. Because this technique is applied to particle sections, the actual liberation properties for particles can only be estimated by applying stereological correction. A recent stereological technique has been developed that allows the discrepancy between the linear intercept composition distribution and the particle section composition distribution to be used as guide for estimating the particle composition distribution. The paper will show results validating this new technique using numerical simulation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala'au foraging grounds (Moloka'i, Hawai'i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size-larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala'au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10-20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.

Development of a dosage strategy in patients receiving enoxaparin by continuous intravenous infusion using modelling and simulation

Aim To develop an appropriate dosing strategy for continuous intravenous infusions (CII) of enoxaparin by minimizing the percentage of steady-state anti-Xa concentration (C-ss) outside the therapeutic range of 0.5-1.2 IU ml(-1). Methods A nonlinear mixed effects model was developed with NONMEM (R) for 48 adult patients who received CII of enoxaparin with infusion durations that ranged from 8 to 894 h at rates between 100 and 1600 IU h(-1). Three hundred and sixty-three anti-Xa concentration measurements were available from patients who received CII. These were combined with 309 anti-Xa concentrations from 35 patients who received subcutaneous enoxaparin. The effects of age, body size, height, sex, creatinine clearance (CrCL) and patient location [intensive care unit (ICU) or general medical unit] on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations were used to (i) evaluate covariate effects on C-ss and (ii) compare the impact of different infusion rates on predicted C-ss. The best dose was selected based on the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Results A two-compartment linear model with additive and proportional residual error for general medical unit patients and only a proportional error for patients in ICU provided the best description of the data. Both CrCL and weight were found to affect significantly clearance and volume of distribution of the central compartment, respectively. Simulations suggested that the best doses for patients in the ICU setting were 50 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (4.2 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). The best doses for patients in the general medical unit were 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 100 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (8.3 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). These best doses were selected based on providing the lowest equal probability of either being above or below the therapeutic range and the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Conclusion The dose of enoxaparin should be individualized to the patients' renal function and weight. There is some evidence to support slightly lower doses of CII enoxaparin in patients in the ICU setting.

Modelling photo-detectors in quantum optics

Photo-detection plays a fundamental role in experimental quantum optics and is of particular importance in the emerging field of linear optics quantum computing. Present theoretical treatment of photo-detectors is highly idealized and fails to consider many important physical effects. We present a physically motivated model for photo-detectors which accommodates for the effects of finite resolution, bandwidth and efficiency, as well as dark counts and dead-time. We apply our model to two simple well-known applications, which illustrates the significance of these characteristics.

Modelling sediment delivery ratio over the Murray Darling Basin

This paper presents a scientific and technical description of the modelling framework and the main results of modelling the long-term average sediment delivery at hillslope to medium-scale catchments over the entire Murray Darling Basin (MDB). A theoretical development that relates long-term averaged sediment delivery to the statistics of rainfall and catchment parameters is presented. The derived flood frequency approach was adapted to investigate the problem of regionalization of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) across the Basin. SDR, a measure of catchment response to the upland erosion rate, was modeled by two lumped linear stores arranged in series: hillslope transport to the nearest streams and flow routing in the channel network. The theory shows that the ratio of catchment sediment residence time (SRT) to average effective rainfall duration is the most important control in the sediment delivery processes. In this study, catchment SRTs were estimated using travel time for overland flow multiplied by an enlargement factor which is a function of particle size. Rainfall intensity and effective duration statistics were regionalized by using long-term measurements from 195 pluviograph sites within and around the Basin. Finally, the model was implemented across the MDB by using spatially distributed soil, vegetation, topographical and land use properties under Geographic Information System (GIs) environment. The results predict strong variations in SDR from close to 0 in floodplains to 70% in the eastern uplands of the Basin. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.