Analysis of MAC protocols with correlation receiver for optical CDMA networks – part I

In this paper optical code-division multiple-access (O-CDMA) packet network is considered. Two types of random access protocols are proposed for packet transmission. In protocol 1, all distinct codes and in protocol 2, distinct codes as well as shifted versions of all these codes are used. O-CDMA network performance using optical orthogonal codes (OOCs) 1-D and twodimensional (2-D) wavelength/time single-pulse-per-row (W/TSPR) codes are analyzed. The main advantage of using 2-D codes instead of one-dimensional (1-D) codes is to reduce the errors due to multiple access interference among different users. In this paper, correlation receiver is considered in the analysis. Using analytical model, we compute and compare packet-success probability for 1-D and 2-D codes in an O-CDMA network and the analysis shows improved performance with 2-D codes as compared to 1-D codes.

Optimal design of timer-based, distributed selection with unknown number of nodes

The timer-based selection scheme is a popular, simple, and distributed scheme that is used to select the best node from a set of available nodes. In it, each node sets a timer as a function of a local preference number called a metric, and transmits a packet when its timer expires. The scheme ensures that the timer of the best node, which has the highest metric, expires first. However, it fails to select the best node if another node transmits a packet within Delta s of the transmission by the best node. We derive the optimal timer mapping that maximizes the average success probability for the practical scenario in which the number of nodes in the system is unknown but only its probability distribution is known. We show that it has a special discrete structure, and present a recursive characterization to determine it. We benchmark its performance with ad hoc approaches proposed in the literature, and show that it delivers significant gains. New insights about the optimality of some ad hoc approaches are also developed.

Optimal Timer-Based Best Node Selection for Wireless Systems with Unknown Number of Nodes

The distributed, low-feedback, timer scheme is used in several wireless systems to select the best node from the available nodes. In it, each node sets a timer as a function of a local preference number called a metric, and transmits a packet when its timer expires. The scheme ensures that the timer of the best node, which has the highest metric, expires first. However, it fails to select the best node if another node transmits a packet within Delta s of the transmission by the best node. We derive the optimal metric-to-timer mappings for the practical scenario where the number of nodes is unknown. We consider two cases in which the probability distribution of the number of nodes is either known a priori or is unknown. In the first case, the optimal mapping maximizes the success probability averaged over the probability distribution. In the second case, a robust mapping maximizes the worst case average success probability over all possible probability distributions on the number of nodes. Results reveal that the proposed mappings deliver significant gains compared to the mappings considered in the literature.

松辽盆地南部腰英台区块低渗透储层整体压裂改造技术研究

The Yaoyingtai Block is located within the northeastern Changling Depression of southern Songliao Basin, where the reservoir sandstones are petrophysically characterized by very low permeability, which results in the low success probability of artificial fracturing, and the low oil yield by water injection in the course of oil production. In order to improve the situations as stated above, this research aims to work out an integral fracturing technology and strategy applicable to the low permeable reservoirs in Yaoyingtai Block. Under the guidance of geological theory, reservoir engineering and technology, the subsurface occurrences of natural and hydraulic fractures in the reservoirs are expected to be delineated, and appropriate fracturing fluids and proppants are to be optimized, based on the data of drilling, well logging, laboratory and field experiments, and geological data. These approaches lay the basis of the integral fracturing technology suitable for the low permeable reservoir in the study area. Based on core sample test, in-situ stress analysis of well logging, and forward and inversion stress field modeling, as well as fluid dynamic analysis, the maximum in-situ stress field is unraveled to be extended nearly along the E-W direction (clustering along N85-135°E) as is demonstrated by the E-W trending tensional fractures. Hydraulic fractures are distributed approximately along the E-W direction as well. Faulting activities could have exerted obvious influences on the distribution of fractures, which were preferentially developed along fault zones. Based on reservoir sensitivity analysis, integrated with studies on rock mechanics, in-situ stress, natural fracture distribution and production in injection-production pilot area, the influences of primary fractures on fracturing operation are analyzed, and a diagnostic technology for primary fractures during depressurization is accordingly developed. An appropriate fracturing fluid (hydroxypropyl guar gum) and a proppant (Yixing ceramsite, with a moderate-density, 0.45-0.9mm in size) applicable to Qingshankou Formation reservoir are worked out through extensive optimization analysis. The fracturing fluid can decrease the damage to the oil reservoir, and the friction in fracturing operation, improving the effect of fracturing operation. Some problems, such as sand-out at early stage and low success rate of fracturing operations, have been effectively solved, through pre-fracturing formation evaluation, “suspension plug” fracturing, real-time monitoring and limited-flow fracturing. Through analysis of fracture-bearing tight reservoir with variable densities and dynamic analysis of influences of well patterns on fracturing by using numerical simulation, a fracturing operation scheme for the Qingshankou Formation reservoir is proposed here as being better to compress the short factures, rather than to compress the long fractures during hydraulic fracturing. It is suggested to adopt the 450m×150m inverted 9-spot well pattern in a diamond shape with wells placed parallel to fractures and a half fracture length of 60-75m.

Changes in innovation styles - comprehensive study of the changes in innovation styles to identify the causes and effects of different influencing factors and capabilities to create a general innovation pattern.

An investigation in innovation management and entrepreneurial management is conducted in this thesis. The aim of the research is to explore changes of innovation styles in the transformation process from a start-up company to a more mature phase of business, to predict in a second step future sustainability and the probability of success. As businesses grow in revenue, corporate size and functional complexity, various triggers, supporters and drivers affect innovation and company's success. In a comprehensive study more than 200 innovative and technology driven companies have been examined and compared to identify patterns in different performance levels. All of them have been founded under the same formal requirements of the Munich Business Plan Competition -a research approach which allowed a unique snapshot that only long-term studies would be able to provide. The general objective was to identify the correlation between different factors, as well as different dimensions, to incremental and radical innovations realised. The 12 hypothesis were formed to prove have been derived from a comprehensive literature review. The relevant academic and practitioner literature on entrepreneurial, innovation, and knowledge management as well as social network theory revealed that the concept of innovation has evolved significantly over the last decade. A review of over 15 innovation models/frameworks contributed to understand what innovation in context means and what the dimensions are. It appears that the complex theories of innovation can be described by the increasing extent of social ingredients in the explanation of innovativeness. Originally based on tangible forms of capital, and on the necessity of pull and technology push, innovation management is today integrated in a larger system. Therefore, two research instruments have been developed to explore the changes in innovations styles. The Innovation Management Audits (IMA Start-up and IMA Mature) provided statements related to product/service development, innovativeness in various typologies, resources for innovations, innovation capabilities in conjunction to knowledge and management, social networks as well as the measurement of outcomes to generate high-quality data for further exploration. In obtaining results the mature companies have been clustered in the performance level low, average and high, while the start-up companies have been kept as one cluster. Firstly, the analysis exposed that knowledge, the process of acquiring knowledge, interorganisational networks and resources for innovations are the most important driving factors for innovation and success. Secondly, the actual change of the innovation style provides new insights about the importance of focusing on sustaining success and innovation ii 16 key areas. Thirdly, a detailed overview of triggers, supporters and drivers for innovation and success for each dimension support decision makers in putting their company in the right direction. Fourthly, a critical review of contemporary strategic management in conjunction to the findings provides recommendation of how to apply well-known management tools. Last but not least, the Munich cluster is analysed providing an estimation of the success probability of the different performance cluster and start-up companies. For the analysis of the probability of success of the newly developed as well as statistically and qualitative validated ICP Model (Innovativeness, Capabilities & Potential) has been developed and applied. While the model was primarily developed to evaluate the probability of success of companies; it has equal application in the situation to measure innovativeness to identify the impact of various strategic initiatives within small or large enterprises. The main findings of the model are that competitor, and customer orientation and acquiring knowledge important for incremental and radical innovation. Formal and interorganisation networks are important to foster innovation but informal networks appear to be detrimental to innovation. The testing of the ICP model h the long term is recommended as one subject of further research. Another is to investigate some of the more intangible aspects of innovation management such as attitude and motivation of mangers. IV

Reabilitação de um imóvel industrial em Marvila: projeto de investimento

Trabalho de Projeto para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

A traffic differentiation add-on to the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol: implementation and experimental validation over a real-time operating system

The IEEE 802.15.4 is the most widespread used protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and it is being used as a baseline for several higher layer protocols such as ZigBee, 6LoWPAN or WirelessHART. Its MAC (Medium Access Control) supports both contention-free (CFP, based on the reservation of guaranteed time-slots GTS) and contention based (CAP, ruled by CSMA/CA) access, when operating in beacon-enabled mode. Thus, it enables the differentiation between real-time and best-effort traffic. However, some WSN applications and higher layer protocols may strongly benefit from the possibility of supporting more traffic classes. This happens, for instance, for dense WSNs used in time-sensitive industrial applications. In this context, we propose to differentiate traffic classes within the CAP, enabling lower transmission delays and higher success probability to timecritical messages, such as for event detection, GTS reservation and network management. Building upon a previously proposed methodology (TRADIF), in this paper we outline its implementation and experimental validation over a real-time operating system. Importantly, TRADIF is fully backward compatible with the IEEE 802.15.4 standard, enabling to create different traffic classes just by tuning some MAC parameters.

The simple economics of risk-sharing agreements between the NHS and the pharmaceutical industry

The Janssen-Cilag proposal for a risk-sharing agreement regarding bortezomib received a welcome signal from NICE. The Office of Fair Trading report included risk-sharing agreements as an available tool for the National Health Service. Nonetheless, recent discussions have somewhat neglected the economic fundamentals underlying risk-sharing agreements. We argue here that risk-sharing agreements, although attractive due to the principle of paying by results, also entail risks. Too many patients may be put under treatment even with a low success probability. Prices are likely to be adjusted upward, in anticipation of future risk-sharing agreements between the pharmaceutical company and the third-party payer. An available instrument is a verification cost per patient treated, which allows obtaining the first-best allocation of patients to the new treatment, under the risk sharing agreement. Overall, the welfare effects of risk-sharing agreements are ambiguous, and care must be taken with their use.

Beta-binomial/Poisson regression models for repeated bivariate counts

We analyze data obtained from a study designed to evaluate training effects on the performance of certain motor activities of Parkinson`s disease patients. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit beta-binomial/Poisson regression models tailored to evaluate the effects of training on the numbers of attempted and successful specified manual movements in 1 min periods, controlling for disease stage and use of the preferred hand. We extend models previously considered by other authors in univariate settings to account for the repeated measures nature of the data. The results suggest that the expected number of attempts and successes increase with training, except for patients with advanced stages of the disease using the non-preferred hand. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

O desenvolvimento do conceito de probabilidade em pré-adolescentes e adolescentes

Este trabalho, baseado na teoria de Jean Piaget sobre o desenvolvimento do pensamento adolescente, visa continuar a mesma linha de investigação no que se refere à aquisição do conceito de probabilidade. O conceito de probabilidade na teoria piagetiana representando a intercepção do real e do possível, foi submetido, neste trabalho, a uma análise crítica e a um projeto de verificação experimental. Em termos teóricos, a crítica orientou-se para a relação entre os canais sensoriais receptores de informação e a organização do nível formal que permite elaborar relações de probabilidade. Importante papel foi atribuído ao estudo da manipulação - expressão direta da ação em seus níveis primordiais - como fator determinante de elaboração específica nas relações de probabilidade. Uma segunda vertente sociogênica do problema foi analisada em termos do nível sócio-econômico como fator que influencia o desenvolvimento do pensamento formal e especificamente a aquisição do conceito de probabilidade. Em termos de verificação experimental, constatou se a possibilidade de se definirem diversos estágios de desenvolvimento, chegando-se a classificar, de modo geral, os sujeitos em: aqueles que ainda não possuem habilidade de pensamento para solução de problema de probabilidade, aqueles que já apresentam tal habilidade, porém, são incapazes de generalização, e outros, em menor parte, que têm estabelecidas as estruturas operatórias do período lógico formal. Dentre estes grupos somente o último faz uso sistemático de estratégias corretas e corresponde aos sujeitos adolescentes do sexo masculino. Isto mostra que existe uma diferença nos resultados devido às diferenças sexuais a favor do sexo masculino e que a capacidade de lidar com relações probabilísticas se torna mais organizada e estruturada com o avanço da idade dos sujeitos. As variáveis ambientais exercem influência no rendimento do sujeito, os resultados variam de acordo com o meio socio econômico, favorecendo os de nível superior, isto é, permitindo-lhes um desenvolvimento normal.

A New Boson with a Mass of 125 GeV Observed with the CMS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mac protocols for linear wireless (sensor) networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) consist of a large number of sensor nodes, characterized by low power constraint, limited transmission range and limited computational capabilities [1][2].The cost of these devices is constantly decreasing, making it possible to use a large number of sensor devices in a wide array of commercial, environmental, military, and healthcare fields. Some of these applications involve placing the sensors evenly spaced on a straight line for example in roads, bridges, tunnels, water catchments and water pipelines, city drainages, oil and gas pipelines etc., making a special class of these networks which we define as a Linear Wireless Network (LWN). In LWNs, data transmission happens hop by hop from the source to the destination, through a route composed of multiple relays. The peculiarity of the topology of LWNs, motivates the design of specialized protocols, taking advantage of the linearity of such networks, in order to increase reliability, communication efficiency, energy savings, network lifetime and to minimize the end-to-end delay [3]. In this thesis a novel contention based Medium Access Control (MAC) protocol called L-CSMA, specifically devised for LWNs is presented. The basic idea of L-CSMA is to assign different priorities to nodes based on their position along the line. The priority is assigned in terms of sensing duration, whereby nodes closer to the destination are assigned shorter sensing time compared to the rest of the nodes and hence higher priority. This mechanism speeds up the transmission of packets which are already in the path, making transmission flow more efficient. Using NS-3 simulator, the performance of L-CSMA in terms of packets success rate, that is, the percentage of packets that reach destination, and throughput are compared with that of IEEE 802.15.4 MAC protocol, de-facto standard for wireless sensor networks. In general, L-CSMA outperforms the IEEE 802.15.4 MAC protocol.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator pˆ , its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters a and b for pˆ

p , respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as p→0, and which guarantee that, for any p∈(0,1), the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, r, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown p. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when a/b does not deviate too much from 1, and asymptotically minimax as r→∞ when a=b.

Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

Bare-tape scaling laws for de-orbit missions in a space debris environment

El entorno espacial actual hay un gran numero de micro-meteoritos y basura espacial generada por el hombre, lo cual plantea un riesgo para la seguridad de las operaciones en el espacio. La situación se agrava continuamente a causa de las colisiones de basura espacial en órbita, y los nuevos lanzamientos de satélites. Una parte significativa de esta basura son satélites muertos, y fragmentos de satélites resultantes de explosiones y colisiones de objetos en órbita. La mitigación de este problema se ha convertido en un tema de preocupación prioritario para todas las instituciones que participan en operaciones espaciales. Entre las soluciones existentes, las amarras electrodinámicas (EDT) proporcionan un eficiente dispositivo para el rápido de-orbitado de los satélites en órbita terrestre baja (LEO), al final de su vida útil. El campo de investigación de las amarras electrodinámicas (EDT) ha sido muy fructífero desde los años 70. Gracias a estudios teóricos, y a misiones para la demostración del funcionamiento de las amarras en órbita, esta tecnología se ha desarrollado muy rápidamente en las últimas décadas. Durante este período de investigación, se han identificado y superado múltiples problemas técnicos de diversa índole. Gran parte del funcionamiento básico del sistema EDT depende de su capacidad de supervivencia ante los micro-meteoritos y la basura espacial. Una amarra puede ser cortada completamente por una partícula cuando ésta tiene un diámetro mínimo. En caso de corte debido al impacto de partículas, una amarra en sí misma, podría ser un riesgo para otros satélites en funcionamiento. Por desgracia, tras varias demostraciones en órbita, no se ha podido concluir que este problema sea importante para el funcionamiento del sistema. En esta tesis, se presenta un análisis teórico de la capacidad de supervivencia de las amarras en el espacio. Este estudio demuestra las ventajas de las amarras de sección rectangular (cinta), en cuanto a la probabilidad de supervivencia durante la misión, frente a las amarras convencionales (cables de sección circular). Debido a su particular geometría (longitud mucho mayor que la sección transversal), una amarra puede tener un riesgo relativamente alto de ser cortado por un único impacto con una partícula de pequeñas dimensiones. Un cálculo analítico de la tasa de impactos fatales para una amarra cilindrica y de tipo cinta de igual longitud y masa, considerando el flujo de partículas de basura espacial del modelo ORDEM2000 de la NASA, muestra mayor probabilidad de supervivencia para las cintas. Dicho análisis ha sido comparado con un cálculo numérico empleando los modelos de flujo el ORDEM2000 y el MASTER2005 de ESA. Además se muestra que, para igual tiempo en órbita, una cinta tiene una probabilidad de supervivencia un orden y medio de magnitud mayor que una amarra cilindrica con igual masa y longitud. Por otra parte, de-orbitar una cinta desde una cierta altitud, es mucho más rápido, debido a su mayor perímetro que le permite capturar más corriente. Este es un factor adicional que incrementa la probabilidad de supervivencia de la cinta, al estar menos tiempo expuesta a los posibles impactos de basura espacial. Por este motivo, se puede afirmar finalmente y en sentido práctico, que la capacidad de supervivencia de la cinta es bastante alta, en comparación con la de la amarra cilindrica. El segundo objetivo de este trabajo, consiste en la elaboración de un modelo analítico, mejorando la aproximación del flujo de ORDEM2000 y MASTER2009, que permite calcular con precisión, la tasa de impacto fatal al año para una cinta en un rango de altitudes e inclinaciones, en lugar de unas condiciones particulares. Se obtiene el numero de corte por un cierto tiempo en función de la geometría de la cinta y propiedades de la órbita. Para las mismas condiciones, el modelo analítico, se compara con los resultados obtenidos del análisis numérico. Este modelo escalable ha sido esencial para la optimización del diseño de la amarra para las misiones de de-orbitado de los satélites, variando la masa del satélite y la altitud inicial de la órbita. El modelo de supervivencia se ha utilizado para construir una función objetivo con el fin de optimizar el diseño de amarras. La función objectivo es el producto del cociente entre la masa de la amarra y la del satélite y el numero de corte por un cierto tiempo. Combinando el modelo de supervivencia con una ecuación dinámica de la amarra donde aparece la fuerza de Lorentz, se elimina el tiempo y se escribe la función objetivo como función de la geometría de la cinta y las propietades de la órbita. Este modelo de optimización, condujo al desarrollo de un software, que esta en proceso de registro por parte de la UPM. La etapa final de este estudio, consiste en la estimación del número de impactos fatales, en una cinta, utilizando por primera vez una ecuación de límite balístico experimental. Esta ecuación ha sido desarollada para cintas, y permite representar los efectos tanto de la velocidad de impacto como el ángulo de impacto. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la cinta es altamente resistente a los impactos de basura espacial, y para una cinta con una sección transversal definida, el número de impactos críticos debidos a partículas no rastreables es significativamente menor. ABSTRACT The current space environment, consisting of man-made debris and tiny meteoroids, poses a risk to safe operations in space, and the situation is continuously deteriorating due to in-orbit debris collisions and to new satellite launches. Among these debris a significant portion is due to dead satellites and fragments of satellites resulted from explosions and in-orbit collisions. Mitigation of space debris has become an issue of first concern for all the institutions involved in space operations. Bare electrodynamic tethers (EDT) can provide an efficient mechanism for rapid de-orbiting of defunct satellites from low Earth orbit (LEO) at end of life. The research on EDT has been a fruitful field since the 70’s. Thanks to both theoretical studies and in orbit demonstration missions, this technology has been developed very fast in the following decades. During this period, several technical issues were identified and overcome. The core functionality of EDT system greatly depends on their survivability to the micrometeoroids and orbital debris, and a tether can become itself a kind of debris for other operating satellites in case of cutoff due to particle impact; however, this very issue is still inconclusive and conflicting after having a number of space demonstrations. A tether can be completely cut by debris having some minimal diameter. This thesis presents a theoretical analysis of the survivability of tethers in space. The study demonstrates the advantages of tape tethers over conventional round wires particularly on the survivability during the mission. Because of its particular geometry (length very much larger than cross-sectional dimensions), a tether may have a relatively high risk of being severed by the single impact of small debris. As a first approach to the problem, survival probability has been compared for a round and a tape tether of equal mass and length. The rates of fatal impact of orbital debris on round and tape tether, evaluated with an analytical approximation to debris flux modeled by NASA’s ORDEM2000, shows much higher survival probability for tapes. A comparative numerical analysis using debris flux model ORDEM2000 and ESA’s MASTER2005 shows good agreement with the analytical result. It also shows that, for a given time in orbit, a tape has a probability of survival of about one and a half orders of magnitude higher than a round tether of equal mass and length. Because de-orbiting from a given altitude is much faster for the tape due to its larger perimeter, its probability of survival in a practical sense is quite high. As the next step, an analytical model derived in this work allows to calculate accurately the fatal impact rate per year for a tape tether. The model uses power laws for debris-size ranges, in both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 debris flux models, to calculate tape tether survivability at different LEO altitudes. The analytical model, which depends on tape dimensions (width, thickness) and orbital parameters (inclinations, altitudes) is then compared with fully numerical results for different orbit inclinations, altitudes and tape width for both ORDEM2000 and MASTER2009 flux data. This scalable model not only estimates the fatal impact count but has proved essential in optimizing tether design for satellite de-orbit missions varying satellite mass and initial orbital altitude and inclination. Within the frame of this dissertation, a simple analysis has been finally presented, showing the scalable property of tape tether, thanks to the survivability model developed, that allows analyze and compare de-orbit performance for a large range of satellite mass and orbit properties. The work explicitly shows the product of tether-to-satellite mass-ratio and fatal impact count as a function of tether geometry and orbital parameters. Combining the tether dynamic equation involving Lorentz drag with space debris impact survivability model, eliminates time from the expression. Hence the product, is independent of tether de-orbit history and just depends on mission constraints and tether length, width and thickness. This optimization model finally led to the development of a friendly software tool named BETsMA, currently in process of registration by UPM. For the final step, an estimation of fatal impact rate on a tape tether has been done, using for the first time an experimental ballistic limit equation that was derived for tapes and accounts for the effects of both the impact velocity and impact angle. It is shown that tape tethers are highly resistant to space debris impacts and considering a tape tether with a defined cross section, the number of critical events due to impact with non-trackable debris is always significantly low.