The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

On the success of generalized food deception in orchids : the role of sympatric rewarding species and pollinators

Résumé : La production de nectar assure aux plantes entomophiles un important succès reproducteur. Malgré cela, de nombreuses espèces d'orchidées ne produisent pas de nectar. La majorité de ces orchidées dites trompeuses exploitent simplement l'instinct des pollinisateurs généralistes, qui les pousse à chercher du nectar dans les fleurs. Afin d'optimiser la récolte de nectar, les pollinisateurs apprennent à différencier les fleurs trompeuses des nectarifères, et à concentrer leurs visites sur ces dernières, au détriment des plantes trompeuses. Chez les orchidées non autogames, la reproduction est assurée uniquement par les pollinisateurs. L'apprentissage des pollinisateurs a donc un impact négatif sur la reproduction des orchidées trompeuses. Cependant, les caractéristiques d'une espèce trompeuse et des espèces nectarifères au sein d'une communauté végétale peuvent affecter l'apprentissage et le taux de visite des pollinisateurs aux plantes trompeuses. J'ai réalisé des expériences en milieu naturel et en milieu contrôlé, pour déterminer si les caractéristiques florales, spatiales et temporelles des communautés affectent le taux de visite et le succès reproducteur de plantes trompeuses. Une agrégation spatiale élevée des plantes trompeuses et des plantes nectarifères diminue le succès reproducteur des plantes trompeuses. De plus, les pollinisateurs visitent plus souvent l'espèce trompeuse Iorsque ses fleurs sont de couleur similaire à celles de l'espèce nectarifère. Cet effet bénéfique de la similarité pour la couleur des fleurs s'accentue si les deux espèces sont mélangées et proches spatialement, ou si l'espèce trompeuse fleurit après l'espèce nectarifère. Enfin, le comportement des pollinisateurs n'est pas tout de suite affecté lorsque les caractéristiques de la communauté changent. Les caractéristiques des communautés végétales affectent donc la reproduction des espèces trompeuses. Bien que L'absence de coûts associés à la production de nectar, l'exportation efficace de pollen et la production de graines de qualité dont bénéficient les orchidées trompeuses favorisent Ieur maintien, les caractéristiques de la communauté peuvent aussi y contribuer. Mon étude fournit donc une explication alternative et complémentaire au maintien des orchidées trompeuses. Je conclus par une discussion des implications possibles de ces résultats sur le maintien et l'évolution des orchidées trompeuses, en tenant compte de la dynamique des caractéristiques des communautés végétales naturelles. Abstract : Despite the importance of producing food to ensure a high reproductive success, many orchid species lack such rewards. The majority of deceptive orchids simply exploit the instinctive food-foraging behaviour of generalist pollinators. This strategy is termed generalized food deception. To optimize their foraging efficiency, pollinators can learn to discriminate deceptive from rewarding flowers and to focus their visits to the rewarding plants, to the disadvantage of the deceptive plants. Because the reproductive success of non-autogamous orchids entirely relies on pollinator visitation rate, pollinator learning decreases the reproductive success of deceptive orchids. However, the characteristics of deceptive and rewarding plants within a community may affect pollinator learning and visitation rate to a deceptive orchid. Therefore, the biological characteristics of natural plant communities may be crucial to the maintenance of generalized food deceptive orchids. My study focused on the floral, spatial and temporal characteristics of plant communities. I used both in and ex sitar experiments to investigate whether these characteristics influence pollinator visitation rates and the reproductive success of deceptive orchids. A high spatial aggregation of both deceptive and rewarding species decreased the reproductive success of the deceptive species. Also, being of similar flower colour to rewarding sympatric species increased pollinator visitation rates to a deceptive species. The beneficial effect of flower colour similarity was even more pronounced when both species were spatially closely mingled or when the deceptive species flowered after the rewarding species. Finally, pollinator behaviour was unaffected in the short term by a change in the characteristics of plant communities, indicating that pollinators need time to learn under new conditions. Thus, the characteristics of plant communities may crucially affect the reproductive success of deceptive orchids. Although the absence of costs associated with nectar production, the efficient pollen export and the high seed quality of deceptive orchids may favour their maintenance, the characteristics of plant communities may also contribute to it. Therefore, my study provides an alternative yet complementary explanation to the maintenance of generalized food deceptive orchids in natural populations. I discuss the possible implications for the maintenance and the evolution of generalized food deceptive orchids with regards to the floral and temporal dynamics of natural plant communities.

Polychlorinated trityl radicals for dynamic nuclear polarization: the role of chlorine nuclei

Polychlorinated trityl radicals bearing carboxylate substituents are water soluble persistent radicals that can be used for dynamic nuclear polarization. In contrast to other trityl radicals, the polarization mechanism differs from the classical solid effect. DFT calculations performed to rationalize this behaviour support the hypothesis that polarization is transferred from the unpaired electron to chlorine nuclei and from these to carbon by spin diffusion. The marked differences observed between neutral and anionic forms of the radical will be discussed.

Proton NMR of (15)N-choline metabolites enhanced by dynamic nuclear polarization.

Chemical shifts of protons can report on metabolic transformations such as the conversion of choline to phosphocholine. To follow such processes in vivo, magnetization can be enhanced by dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP). We have hyperpolarized in this manner nitrogen-15 spins in (15)N-labeled choline up to 3.3% by irradiating the 94 GHz electron spin resonance of admixed TEMPO nitroxide radicals in a magnetic field of 3.35 T during ca. 3 h at 1.2 K. The sample was subsequently transferred to a high-resolution magnet, and the enhanced polarization was converted from (15)N to methyl- and methylene protons, using the small (2,3)J((1)H,(15)N) couplings in choline. The room-temperature lifetime of nitrogen polarization in choline, T(1)((15)N) approximately 200 s, could be considerably increased by partial deuteration of the molecule. This procedure enables studies of choline metabolites in vitro and in vivo using DNP-enhanced proton NMR.

Impact of controlled changes in grain size and pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of "proxies" of saturated alluvial sediments

Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel, which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. The results of this study underline the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raise some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework.

A Generalized Model Study of Scour Around Bridge Piers and Abutments, HR-24, 1953

Four classes of variables are apparent in the problem of scour around bridge piers and abutments--geometry of piers and abutments, stream-flow characteristics, sediment characteristics, and geometry of site. The laboratory investigation, from its inception, has been divided into four phases based on these classes. In each phase the variables in three of the classes are held constant and those in the pertinent class are varied. To date, the first three phases have been studied. Typical scour bole patterns related to the geometry of the pier or abutment have been found. For equilibrium conditions of scour with uniform sand, the velocity of flow and the sand size do not appear to have any measurable effects on the depth of scour. This result is especially encouraging in the search for correlation between model and prototype since it would indicate that, primarily, only the depth of flow might be involved in the scale effect. The technique of model testing has been simplified, therefore, because rate of sediment transportation does not need to be scaled. Prior to the establishment of equilibrium conditions, however, depths of scour in excess of those for equilibrium conditions have been found. A concept of active scour as an imbalance between sediment transport capacity and rate of sediment supply has been used to explain the laboratory observations.

Fourier transform convolution integrals applied to generalized Born molecular volume.

Generalized Born methods are currently among the solvation models most commonly used for biological applications. We reformulate the generalized Born molecular volume method initially described by (Lee et al, 2003, J Phys Chem, 116, 10606; Lee et al, 2003, J Comp Chem, 24, 1348) using fast Fourier transform convolution integrals. Changes in the initial method are discussed and analyzed. Finally, the method is extensively checked with snapshots from common molecular modeling applications: binding free energy computations and docking. Biologically relevant test systems are chosen, including 855-36091 atoms. It is clearly demonstrated that, precision-wise, the proposed method performs as good as the original, and could better benefit from hardware accelerated boards.

Spectral induced polarization: Laboratory measurements on sandy quartz samples of varied pore characteristics

Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial sedimentary deposits. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel. We alter the pore characteristics using three principal methods: (i) variation of the grain sizes, (ii) changing the degree of compaction, and (iii) changing the level of sorting. We then examine how these changes affect both the SIP response and the hydraulic conductivity. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the applied changes in pore characteristics and the SIP response. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the whole range of considered grain sizes.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Spatial polarization of the ecological footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework. Keywords: Polarization, Core-Periphery, Ecological Footprint

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Textural controls on induced polarization and permeability in granular media

The spatial resolution visualized with hydrological models and the conceptualized images of subsurface hydrological processes often exceed resolution of the data collected with classical instrumentation at the field scale. In recent years it was possible to increasingly diminish the inherent gap to information from point like field data through the application of hydrogeophysical methods at field-scale. With regards to all common geophysical exploration techniques, electric and electromagnetic methods have arguably to greatest sensitivity to hydrologically relevant parameters. Of particular interest in this context are induced polarisation (IP) measurements, which essentially constrain the capacity of a probed subsurface region to store an electrical charge. In the absence of metallic conductors the IP- response is largely driven by current conduction along the grain surfaces. This offers the perspective to link such measurements to the characteristics of the solid-fluid-interface and thus, at least in unconsolidated sediments, should allow for first-order estimates of the permeability structure.¦While the IP-effect is well explored through laboratory experiments and in part verified through field data for clay-rich environments, the applicability of IP-based characterizations to clay-poor aquifers is not clear. For example, polarization mechanisms like membrane polarization are not applicable in the rather wide pore-systems of clay free sands, and the direct transposition of Schwarz' theory relating polarization of spheres to the relaxation mechanism of polarized cells to complex natural sediments yields ambiguous results.¦In order to improve our understanding of the structural origins of IP-signals in such environments as well as their correlation with pertinent hydrological parameters, various laboratory measurements have been conducted. We consider saturated quartz samples with a grain size spectrum varying from fine sand to fine gravel, that is grain diameters between 0,09 and 5,6 mm, as well as corresponding pertinent mixtures which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. The pore space characteristics are altered by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples, while keeping any electrochemical variability during the measurements as small as possible. The results do not follow simple assumptions on relationships to single parameters such as grain size. It was found that the complexity of natural occurring media is not yet sufficiently represented when modelling IP. At the same time simple correlation to permeability was found to be strong and consistent. Hence, adaptations with the aim of better representing the geo-structure of natural porous media were applied to the simplified model space used in Schwarz' IP-effect-theory. The resulting semi- empiric relationship was found to more accurately predict the IP-effect and its relation to the parameters grain size and permeability. If combined with recent findings about the effect of pore fluid electrochemistry together with advanced complex resistivity tomography, these results will allow us to picture diverse aspects of the subsurface with relative certainty. Within the framework of single measurement campaigns, hydrologiste can than collect data with information about the geo-structure and geo-chemistry of the subsurface. However, additional research efforts will be necessary to further improve the understanding of the physical origins of IP-effect and minimize the potential for false interpretations.¦-¦Dans l'étude des processus et caractéristiques hydrologiques des subsurfaces, la résolution spatiale donnée par les modèles hydrologiques dépasse souvent la résolution des données du terrain récoltées avec des méthodes classiques d'hydrologie. Récemment il est possible de réduire de plus en plus cet divergence spatiale entre modèles numériques et données du terrain par l'utilisation de méthodes géophysiques, notamment celles géoélectriques. Parmi les méthodes électriques, la polarisation provoquée (PP) permet de représenter la capacité des roches poreuses et des sols à stocker une charge électrique. En l'absence des métaux dans le sous-sol, cet effet est largement influencé par des caractéristiques de surface des matériaux. En conséquence les mesures PP offrent une information des interfaces entre solides et fluides dans les matériaux poreux que nous pouvons lier à la perméabilité également dirigée par ces mêmes paramètres. L'effet de la polarisation provoquée à été étudié dans différentes études de laboratoire, ainsi que sur le terrain. A cause d'une faible capacité de polarisation des matériaux sableux, comparé aux argiles, leur caractérisation par l'effet-PP reste difficile a interpréter d'une manière cohérente pour les environnements hétérogènes.¦Pour améliorer les connaissances sur l'importance de la structure du sous-sol sableux envers l'effet PP et des paramètres hydrologiques, nous avons fait des mesures de laboratoire variées. En détail, nous avons considéré des échantillons sableux de quartz avec des distributions de taille de grain entre sables fins et graviers fins, en diamètre cela fait entre 0,09 et 5,6 mm. Les caractéristiques de l'espace poreux sont changées en modifiant (i) la distribution de taille des grains, (ii) le degré de compaction, et (iii) le niveau d'hétérogénéité dans la distribution de taille de grains. En suite nous étudions comment ces changements influencent l'effet-PP, la perméabilité et la surface spécifique des échantillons. Les paramètres électrochimiques sont gardés à un minimum pendant les mesures. Les résultats ne montrent pas de relation simple entre les paramètres pétro-physiques comme par exemples la taille des grains. La complexité des media naturels n'est pas encore suffisamment représenté par les modèles des processus PP. Néanmoins, la simple corrélation entre effet PP et perméabilité est fort et consistant. En conséquence la théorie de Schwarz sur l'effet-PP a été adapté de manière semi-empirique pour mieux pouvoir estimer la relation entre les résultats de l'effet-PP et les paramètres taille de graines et perméabilité. Nos résultats concernant l'influence de la texture des matériaux et celles de l'effet de l'électrochimie des fluides dans les pores, permettront de visualiser des divers aspects du sous-sol. Avec des telles mesures géo-électriques, les hydrologues peuvent collectionner des données contenant des informations sur la structure et la chimie des fluides des sous-sols. Néanmoins, plus de recherches sur les origines physiques de l'effet-PP sont nécessaires afin de minimiser le risque potentiel d'une mauvaise interprétation des données.

Generalized synchronization in directionally coupled systems with identical individual dynamics

A simple chaotic flow is presented, which when driven by an identical copy of itself, for certain initial conditions, is able to display generalized synchronization instead of identical synchronization. Being that the drive and the response are observed in exactly the same coordinate system, generalized synchronization is demonstrated by means of the auxiliary system approach and by the conditional Lyapunov spectrum. This is interpreted in terms of changes in the structure of the system stationary points, caused by the coupling, which modify its global behavior.