Is maximizing resilience compatible with established ecological goal functions?

Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] used a simple phytoplanktonzooplankton-nutrient model and a genetic algorithm to determine the parameter values that would maximize the value of certain goal functions. These goal functions were to maximize biomass, maximize flux, maximize flux to biomass ratio, and maximize resilience. It was found that maximizing goal functions maximized resilience. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] result was indicative of a general ecosystem principle, or peculiar to the model and parameter ranges used. This study successfully replicated the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] experiment for a number of different model types, however, a different interpretation of the results is made. A new metric, concordance, was devised to describe the agreement between goal functions. It was found that resilience has the highest concordance of all goal functions trialled. for most model types. This implies that resilience offers a compromise between the established ecological goal functions. The parameter value range used is found to affect the parameter versus goal function relationships. Local maxima and minima affected the relationship between parameters and goal functions, and between goal functions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unsaturated diffusivity functions for concrete derived from NMR images

Deterioration of concrete or reinforcing steel through excessive contaminant concentration is often the result of repeated wetting and drying cycles. At each cycle, the absorption of water carries new contaminants into the unsaturated concrete. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is used with large concrete samples to observe the shape of the wetting profile during a simple one-dimensional wetting process. The absorption of water by dry concrete is modelled by a nonlinear diffusion equation with the unsaturated hydraulic diffusivity being a strongly nonlinear function of the moisture content. Exponential and power functions are used for the hydraulic diffusivity and corresponding solutions of the diffusion equation adequately predict the shape of the experimental wetting profile. The shape parameters, describing the wetting profile, vary little between different blends and are relatively insensitive to subsequent re-wetting experiments allowing universal parameters to be suggested for these concretes.

Mapping the royal road and other hierarchical functions

In this paper we present a technique for visualising hierarchical and symmetric, multimodal fitness functions that have been investigated in the evolutionary computation literature. The focus of this technique is on landscapes in moderate-dimensional, binary spaces (i.e., fitness functions defined over {0, 1}(n), for n less than or equal to 16). The visualisation approach involves an unfolding of the hyperspace into a two-dimensional graph, whose layout represents the topology of the space using a recursive relationship, and whose shading defines the shape of the cost surface defined on the space. Using this technique we present case-study explorations of three fitness functions: royal road, hierarchical-if-and-only-if (H-IFF), and hierarchically decomposable functions (HDF). The visualisation approach provides an insight into the properties of these functions, particularly with respect to the size and shape of the basins of attraction around each of the local optima.

Alguns teoremas limites para sequências de variáveis aleatórias

O Teorema Central do Limite e a Lei dos Grandes Números estão entre os mais importantes resultados da teoria da probabilidade. O primeiro deles busca condições sob as quais [fórmula] converge em distribuição para a distribuição normal com parâmetros 0 e 1, quando n tende ao infinito, onde Sn é a soma de n variáveis aleatórias independentes. Ao mesmo tempo, o segundo estabelece condições para que [fórmula] convirja a zero, ou equivalentemente, para que [fórmula] convirja para a esperança das variáveis aleatórias, caso elas sejam identicamente distribuídas. Em ambos os casos as sequências abordadas são do tipo [fórmula], onde [fórmula] e [fórmula] são constantes reais. Caracterizar os possíveis limites de tais sequências é um dos objetivos dessa dissertação, já que elas não convergem exclusivamente para uma variável aleatória degenerada ou com distribuição normal como na Lei dos Grandes Números e no Teorema Central do Limite, respectivamente. Assim, somos levados naturalmente ao estudo das distribuições infinitamente divisíveis e estáveis, e os respectivos teoremas limites, e este vem a ser o objetivo principal desta dissertação. Para as demonstrações dos teoremas utiliza-se como estratégia principal a aplicação do método de Lyapunov, o qual consiste na análise da convergência da sequência de funções características correspondentes às variáveis aleatórias. Nesse sentido, faremos também uma abordagem detalhada de tais funções neste trabalho.

Utilização da lógica fuzzy na geração de zonas de manejo

Este trabalho teve como objetivo utilizar a lógica fuzzy para geração de zonas de manejo, na área agrária e ambiental. Uma das aplicações consistiu da utilização do método fuzzy C-means, para geração de zonas de manejo para a cultura do mamoeiro, em um plantio comercial localizado em São Mateus-ES, com base em determinações realizadas através de amostragens e análises químicas do solo, considerando os atributos: P, K, Ca, Mg, e Saturação por bases (V%). Aplicou-se também a lógica fuzzy para desenvolver e executar um procedimento para dar suporte ao processo de tomada de decisões, envolvendo análise multicritério, gerando mapas de adequabilidade ao uso público e a conservação no Parque Estadual da Cachoeira da Fumaça, no município de Alegre-ES, considerando como fatores a localização da cachoeira, o uso do solo, os recursos hídricos, as trilhas, os locais de acessos, a infraestrutura, a declividade da área, e utilizando a abordagem de Sistema de Informações Geográficas para análise e combinação da base de dados. A partir das zonas de manejo geradas, foi possível explicar a variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo na área de estudo da cultura do mamoeiro, e observa-se que as similaridades entre as zonas geradas, a partir de diferentes atributos, mostrou variação, mas observa-se uma influência nos dados, principalmente pelos atributos P e V. A partir do zoneamento da Unidade de Conservação foi possível selecionar áreas mais aptas ao ecoturismo, sendo encontradas próximas da cachoeira, trilhas em zonas de reflorestamento e de Mata Atlântica. Quanto às áreas propensas a medidas de conservação localizam-se próximas à cachoeira e às estruturas do parque, devido à maior pressão antrópica exercida nesses locais. Outras áreas que se destacaram, foram as áreas de pastagem, por estarem em estágio de regeneração natural. Os resultados indicam áreas de mesmo potencial de produção do mamoeiro, ou quando aplicado à área ambiental, áreas que devem receber maior cuidado para utilização por ecoturismo e para preservação e servem de base para a tomada de decisões, visando melhor aproveitamento da área.

Um Modelo Fuzzy Comportamental para análise de sobre-reação e sub-reação no mercado de ações brasileiro

Neste artigo, são apresentados testes empíricos para a investigação de ocorrência de fenômenos de sobre-reação e sub-reação no mercado de ações brasileiro. Para esses testes, é proposto um modelo baseado na teoria de conjuntos Fuzzy, que possui forte relação com as heurísticas de representatividade e ancoramento, estabelecidas na teoria de finanças comportamentais. O modelo proposto é empregado para a formação de carteiras e utiliza indicadores financeiros de companhias abertas. Para as análises são utilizados dois conjuntos de ações, um do setor de petróleo e petroquímica e outro do setor têxtil, com indicadores financeiros relativos ao período de 1994 a 2005.

UM MODELO FUZZY-DEA-GAME PARA ESTRATÉGIAS DE PRODUÇÃO SOB INCERTEZA

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo modelo Fuzzy-DEA-Game (FDG) para apoiar o estabelecimento de estratégias de produção. Esse modelo combina a Análise Envoltória de Dados (DEA) com conceitos da Teoria dos Conjuntos Fuzzy e do Jogo da Barganha de Nash. O modelo permite uma avaliação da eficiência produtiva e econômica dos produtos, o que pode resultar num portfólio de produtos mais rentáveis e de interesse do mercado consumidor. O modelo foi aplicado em uma empresa do segmento de energia. Os resultados obtidos com a aplicação do modelo FDG mostraram-se aderentes à realidade da empresa estudada e forneceram metas para a redução dos níveis de recursos (entradas) necessários para a fabricação dos produtos e para aumento dos níveis de resultados (saídas) oriundos da comercialização desses produtos. Como resultado adicional importante, o modelo FDG permitiu a identificação dos produtos do portfólio que são mais sensíveis à ocorrência de incerteza.

Health education: the role and functions of the specialist and the generalist

Education for health is a process in which all public health and medical care personnel are involved. People learn both formally (planned learning experiences) and informally (unplanned learning experiences). Since the patient, the client, the consummer and the community expect public health and medical care personnel to assist them with health and disease issues and problems, the response of the professional "educates" the customer whether the professional intends to educate or not. Therefore, it is incumbent on all public health and medical care professionals to understand their educational functions and their role in health education. It is also important that the role of the specialist in education be clear. The specialist, as to all other specialists, has an in-depth knowledge of his area of expertise, i.e., the teaching/learning process; s/he may function as a consultant to others to enhance the educational potential of their role or s/he may work with a team or with communities or groups of patients. Specific competencies and knowledge are required of the health education specialist; and there is a body of learning and social change theory which provides a frame of reference for planning, implementing and evaluating educational programs. Working with others to enhance their potential to learn and to make informed decisions about health/disease issues is the hallmark of the health education specialist.

Equilibrium self-assembly of colloids with distinct interaction sites: Thermodynamics, percolation, and cluster distribution functions

We calculate the equilibrium thermodynamic properties, percolation threshold, and cluster distribution functions for a model of associating colloids, which consists of hard spherical particles having on their surfaces three short-ranged attractive sites (sticky spots) of two different types, A and B. The thermodynamic properties are calculated using Wertheim's perturbation theory of associating fluids. This also allows us to find the onset of self-assembly, which can be quantified by the maxima of the specific heat at constant volume. The percolation threshold is derived, under the no-loop assumption, for the correlated bond model: In all cases it is two percolated phases that become identical at a critical point, when one exists. Finally, the cluster size distributions are calculated by mapping the model onto an effective model, characterized by a-state-dependent-functionality (f) over bar and unique bonding probability (p) over bar. The mapping is based on the asymptotic limit of the cluster distributions functions of the generic model and the effective parameters are defined through the requirement that the equilibrium cluster distributions of the true and effective models have the same number-averaged and weight-averaged sizes at all densities and temperatures. We also study the model numerically in the case where BB interactions are missing. In this limit, AB bonds either provide branching between A-chains (Y-junctions) if epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) is small, or drive the formation of a hyperbranched polymer if epsilon(AB)/epsilon(AA) is large. We find that the theoretical predictions describe quite accurately the numerical data, especially in the region where Y-junctions are present. There is fairly good agreement between theoretical and numerical results both for the thermodynamic (number of bonds and phase coexistence) and the connectivity properties of the model (cluster size distributions and percolation locus).

On differentiability and analyticity of positive definite functions

We derive a set of differential inequalities for positive definite functions based on previous results derived for positive definite kernels by purely algebraic methods. Our main results show that the global behavior of a smooth positive definite function is, to a large extent, determined solely by the sequence of even-order derivatives at the origin: if a single one of these vanishes then the function is constant; if they are all non-zero and satisfy a natural growth condition, the function is real-analytic and consequently extends holomorphically to a maximal horizontal strip of the complex plane.

Stratification of the earth beneath the Azores from P and S receiver functions

Seismic recordings of IRIS/IDA/GSN station CMLA and of several temporary stations in the Azores archipelago are processed with P and S receiver function (PRF and SRF) techniques. Contrary to regional seismic tomography these methods provide estimates of the absolute velocities and of the Vp/Vs ratio up to a depth of similar to 300 km. Joint inversion of PRFs and SRFs for a few data sets consistently reveals a division of the subsurface medium into four zones with a distinctly different Vp/Vs ratio: the crust similar to 20 km thick with a ratio of similar to 1.9 in the lower crust, the high-Vs mantle lid with a strongly reduced VpNs velocity ratio relative to the standard 1.8, the low-velocity zone (LVZ) with a velocity ratio of similar to 2.0, and the underlying upper-mantle layer with a standard velocity ratio. Our estimates of crustal thickness greatly exceed previous estimates (similar to 10 km). The base of the high-Vs lid (the Gutenberg discontinuity) is at a depth of-SO km. The LVZ with a reduction of S velocity of similar to 15% relative to the standard (IASP91) model is terminated at a depth of similar to 200 km. The average thickness of the mantle transition zone (TZ) is evaluated from the time difference between the S410p and SKS660p, seismic phases that are robustly detected in the S and SKS receiver functions. This thickness is practically similar to the standard IASP91 value of 250 km. and is characteristic of a large region of the North Atlantic outside the Azores plateau. Our data are indicative of a reduction of the S-wave velocity of several percent relative to the standard velocity in a depth interval from 460 to 500 km. This reduction is found in the nearest vicinities of the Azores, in the region sampled by the PRFs, but, as evidenced by SRFs, it is missing at a distance of a few hundred kilometers from the islands. We speculate that this anomaly may correspond to the source of a plume which generated the Azores hotspot. Previously, a low S velocity in this depth range was found with SRF techniques beneath a few other hotspots.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.