Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience. Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

The future of power in the network era

This article asks questions about the futures of power in the network era. Two critical emerging issues are at work with uncertain outcomes. The first is the emergence of the collaborative economy, while the second is the emergence of surveillance capabilities from both civic, state and commercial sources. While both of these emerging issues are expected by many to play an important role in the future development of our societies, it is still unclear whose values and whose purposes will be furthered. This article argues that the futures of these emerging issues depend on contests for power. As such, four scenarios are developed for the futures of power in the network era using the double variable scenario approach.

The university of the digital future : a reimagining based on the learning strategies of professionals in the digital media sectors

This article explores how universities might engage more effectively with the imperative to develop students’ 21st century skills for the information society, by examining learning challenges and strategies of successful digital media professionals. The findings support a significant body of literature, which argues that legacy university structures and pedagogical approaches are not conducive to optimal professional learning in the digital age. A model of one reimagining of the university is presented, which draws upon the learning preferences of the professionals in this study, as linked with extant theory relating to informal, situated, self-determined learning, communities of practice and personal learning environments.

Motion capture and the future of virtual production

Motion capture continues to be adopted across a range of creative fields including, animation, games, visual effects, dance, live theatre and the visual arts. This panel will discuss and showcase the use of motion capture across these creative fields and consider the future of virtual production in the creative industries.

Assisting future lawyers to conceptualise their dispute resolution advocacy role

This article discusses the key concepts that underpin an elective subject, Dispute Resolution Practice, offered in the Queensland University of Technology undergraduate law curriculum. They were conceptualised during a Teaching Fellowship when research was conducted into how to assist future lawyers to conceptualise their dispute resolution advocacy role. The unit also contains the majority of content recommended in the recent National Alternative Dispute Resolution Advisory Council Report, “Teaching Alternative Dispute Resolution in Australian Law Schools”. The environments in which lawyers operate and the knowledge and skills they require to represent clients in negotiation, mediation and conciliation processes will be examined.

Back to the future

In the field of education, explicit instruction refers to teacher-­‐centred instruction that is focused on clear behavioural and cognitive goals and outcomes. These in turn are made ‘explicit’ or transparent to learners. Sociologist Basil Bernstein defined explicit instruction as featuring “strong classification” and “strong framing”: clearly defined and boundaried knowledge and skills, and teacher-­‐directed interaction. Explicit instruction is affiliated with but not limited to highly structured, instruction in basic skills in early literacy and numeracy education. It is also used in Australian genre-­‐based approaches to writing that stress the value of “explicit” knowledge of grammar and all textual codes. Several major meta-­‐analyses and reviews have identified explicit instruction as a major instructional approach in contemporary schooling...

Virtual worlds in Australian and New Zealand higher education : remembering the past, understanding the present and imagining the future

3D virtual reality, including the current generation of multi-user virtual worlds, has had a long history of use in education and training, and it experienced a surge of renewed interest with the advent of Second Life in 2003. What followed shortly after were several years marked by considerable hype around the use of virtual worlds for teaching, learning and research in higher education. For the moment, uptake of the technology seems to have plateaued, with academics either maintaining the status quo and continuing to use virtual worlds as they have previously done or choosing to opt out altogether. This paper presents a brief review of the use of virtual worlds in the Australian and New Zealand higher education sector in the past and reports on its use in the sector at the present time, based on input from members of the Australian and New Zealand Virtual Worlds Working Group. It then adopts a forward-looking perspective amid the current climate of uncertainty, musing on future directions and offering suggestions for potential new applications in light of recent technological developments and innovations in the area.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Promoting a more positive traffic safety culture in Australia : lessons learnt and future directions

Adopting a traffic safety culture approach, this paper identifies and discusses the ongoing challenge of promoting the road safety message in Australia. It is widely acknowledged that mass media and public education initiatives have played a critical role in the significant positive changes witnessed in community attitudes to road safety in the last three to four decades. It could be argued that mass media and education have had a direct influence on behaviours and attitudes, as well as an indirect influence through signposting and awareness raising functions in conjunction with enforcement. Great achievements have been made in reducing fatalities on Australia’s roads; a concept which is well understood among the international road safety fraternity. How well these achievements are appreciated by the general Australian community however, is not clear. This paper explores the lessons that can be learnt from successes in attitudinal and behaviour change in regard to seatbelt use and drink driving in Australia. It also identifies and discusses key challenges associated with achieving further positive changes in community attitudes and behaviours, particularly in relation to behaviours that may not be perceived by the community as dangerous, such as speeding and mobile phone use while driving. Potential strategies for future mass media and public education campaigns to target these challenges are suggested, including ways of harnessing the power of contemporary traffic law enforcement techniques, such as point-to-point speed enforcement and in-vehicle technologies, to help spread the road safety message.

Examining gender differences in drivers' thoughts and feelings about different outcomes of speeding: Implications for future anti-speeding messages

Speeding remains a pervasive road safety problem, increasing both crash frequency and severity. Advertising countermeasures which aim to change individuals’ attitudes and behaviours are a key component in the array of countermeasures aimed at reducing this risky behaviour. Enhancing individuals’ perceptions of the personal relevance of such messages is important for increasing persuasiveness. This study examined what males and females reported as the most concerning aspects associated with (i) receiving a speeding fine, (ii) losing one’s license, and (iii) being involved in a crash. For each of these outcomes, a range of specific and appropriate aspects were assessed. For instance, in relation to receiving a fine, individuals reported the extent to which they would, for example, feel concerned about losing demerit points and paying more in insurance premiums. An online survey of 751 drivers (579 males; 16-79 years) was administered. When controlling for age, overall significant gender differences were found in relation to two of the three outcomes; receiving a fine and being in a crash. Follow-up tests of univariate effects revealed that females consistently reported being significantly more concerned than males on all aspects. Thus, for being fined, females were significantly more concerned with, for example, being caught and receiving a ticket in the mail; while, for being in a crash, specific aspects included, for example, injuring/killing oneself and seeing oneself as not a good/safe driver. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for developing well-targeted messages aimed at discouraging drivers from speeding.

Research trends of post disaster reconstruction : the past and the future

Natural disasters can have adverse effect on human lives. To raise the awareness of research and better combat future events, it is important to identify recent research trends in the area of post disaster reconstruction (PDR). The authors used a three-round literature review strategy to study journal papers published in the last decade that are related to PDR with specific conditions using the Scopus search engine. A wide range of PDR related papers from a general perspective was examined in the first two rounds while the final round established 88 papers as target publications through visual examination of the abstracts, keywords and as necessary, main texts. These papers were analysed in terms of research origins, active researchers, research organisations, most cited papers, regional concerns, major themes and deliverables, for clues of the past trends and future directions. The need for appropriate PDR research is increasingly recognised. The publication number multiplied 5 times from 2002 to 2012. For PDR research with a construction perspective, the increase is sixfold. Developing countries such as those in Asia attract almost 50% researchers' attention for regional concerns while the US is the single most concentrated (24%) country. Africa is hardly represented. Researchers in developed countries lead in worldwide PDR research. This contrasts to the need for expertise in developing countries. Past works focused on waste management, stakeholder analysis, resourcing, infrastructure issue, resilience and vulnerability, reconstruction approach, sustainable reconstruction and governance issues. Future research should respond to resourcing, integrated development, sustainability and resilience building to cover the gaps. By means of a holistic summary and structured analysis of key patterns, the authors hope to provide a streamlined access to existing research findings and make predictions of future trends. They also hope to encourage a more holistic approach to PDR research and international collaborations.

Kaleidoscope : shaping a better future through a stakeholder approach to widespread organisational change

The main focus of ‘Kaleidoscope: Reframing evaluation through a stakeholder approach to sustainable, cultural change in Higher Education’ is to develop a set of principles to guide user-led engagement in widespread organisational change and maximise its impact. The word kaleidoscope represents the unique lens through which each institution will need to view their cultural specificity and local context through an extensive process of collaboration and engagement, followed by communication and dissemination. Kaleidoscope has particular relevance when new approaches to learning and teaching evaluation are introduced by tertiary institutions. Building on the Reframe Project, which involved three years of user-led consultation and was designed to meet stakeholders’ needs, QUT successfully introduced a new evaluation framework in 2013 across the university. Reframe was evidence based, involved scholarly reflection and was founded on a strong theoretical framework. The evolution of the evaluation framework included analysis of scholarly literature and environmental scans across the higher education sector (Alderman, et al., 2012), researched development of conceptual theory (Alderman, et al., in press 2013), incorporated the stakeholder voice and framed within project management principles (Alderman & Melanie, 2012). Kaleidoscope’s objectives are for QUT to develop its research-based stakeholder approach to distil the successful experience exhibited in the Reframe Project into a transferable set of guidelines for use by other tertiary institutions across the sectors. These guidelines will assist others to design, develop, and deploy, their own culturally specific widespread organisational change informed by stakeholder engagement and organisational buy-in. It is intended that these guidelines will promote, support and enable other tertiary institutions to embark on their own projects and maximise the impact. In correlation with a our conference paper, this round table presents the Draft Guidelines and Framework ready for external peer review by evaluation practitioners, as part of Kaleidoscope’s dissemination (Hinton & Gannaway, 2011) applying illuminative evaluation theory (Parlett & Hamilton, 1976), through conference workshops and linked round table discussions (Shapiro, et al., 1983; Jacobs, 2000).

Ergonomic DHM systems - limitations and trends – a systematic literature review focused on the ‘future of ergonomics’

Digital Human Models (DHM) have been used for over 25 years. They have evolved from simple drawing templates, which are nowadays still used in architecture, to complex and Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) integrated design and analysis tools for various ergonomic tasks. DHM are most frequently used for applications in product design and production planning, with many successful implementations documented. DHM from other domains, as for example computer user interfaces, artificial intelligence, training and education, or the entertainment industry show that there is also an ongoing development towards a comprehensive understanding and holistic modeling of human behavior. While the development of DHM for the game sector has seen significant progress in recent years, advances of DHM in the area of ergonomics have been comparatively modest. As a consequence, we need to question if current DHM systems are fit for the design of future mobile work systems. So far it appears that DHM in Ergonomics are rather limited to some traditional applications. According to Dul et al. (2012), future characteristics of Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) can be assigned to six main trends: (1) global change of work systems, (2) cultural diversity, (3) ageing, (4) information and communication technology (ICT), (5) enhanced competiveness and the need for innovation, and; (6) sustainability and corporate social responsibility. Based on a literature review, we systematically investigate the capabilities of current ergonomic DHM systems versus the ‘Future of Ergonomics’ requirements. It is found that DHMs already provide broad functionality in support of trends (1) and (2), and more limited options in regards to trend (3). Today’s DHM provide access to a broad range of national and international databases for correct differentiation and characterization of anthropometry for global populations. Some DHM explicitly address social and cultural modeling of groups of people. In comparison, the trends of growing importance of ICT (4), the need for innovation (5) and sustainability (6) are addressed primarily from a hardware-oriented and engineering perspective and not reflected in DHM. This reflects a persistent separation between hardware design (engineering) and software design (information technology) in the view of DHM – a disconnection which needs to be urgently overcome in the era of software defined user interfaces and mobile devices. The design of a mobile ICT-device is discussed to exemplify the need for a comprehensive future DHM solution. Designing such mobile devices requires an approach that includes organizational aspects as well as technical and cognitive ergonomics. Multiple interrelationships between the different aspects result in a challenging setting for future DHM. In conclusion, the ‘Future of Ergonomics’ pose particular challenges for DHM in regards to the design of mobile work systems, and moreover mobile information access.

Road safety in Australia : successes, challenges for the future, and possibilities for the USA

Overview - Role of CARRS-Q - Australia’s road safety performance - Key features of Australia’s approach to road safety: - Strong reliance on traffic law enforcement, supported by mass media public education - Adoption of the Safe Systems approach - Ambitious road trauma reduction targets? - Ongoing challenges - Possibilities for the USA