Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

¿Cisne negro o pollo del montón? El déficit fiscal catalán en perspectiva

En esta nota se cuestiona la tesis de que el déficit fiscal de Catalunya es mucho mayor que el que registran otras regiones con niveles similares de renta relativa en los países de nuestro entorno. Cataluña encaja perfectamente en el patrón de redistribución territorial que se observa en Estados Unidos cuando abstraemos del tamaño de la Administración Central y trabajamos con el gasto que ''vuelve'' a cada territorio por euro o dolar de impuestos soportados. Esto hace muy difícil pensar que el saldo fiscal catalán pueda ser muy inferior al que presentan las regiones ricas de los países de Europa continental, que generalmente cuentan con sectores públicos mayores y mucho más redistributivos que el norteamericano.

Fiscal Facts 2003

An explaination of our governments expendiures.

Fiscal Year 2002 Annual Report, 2002

Annual report for Iowa Lottery

Achieving Results for Iowans Fiscal Year 2000 Annual Report, 2000

Annual report for Iowa Workforce Development

Service to Iowans Fiscal Year 2001 Annual Report, 2001

Annual Report for Iowa Workforce Development

Service to Iowans Fiscal Year 2002 Annual Report, 2002

Annual report for Iowa Workforce Development

Iowa Department of Transportation Fiscal Year 2002 Report of Savings by Using Videoconferencing through Iowa Communications Network to the Iowa General Assembly, 2002

ICN Videoconferencing by the Iowa Department of Transportation

Iowa Utilities Board Fiscal Year 2002 Regulatory Plan Prepared Pursuant to Executive Order Nine, August 1, 2001

Report for the Iowa Utilities Board

Budget Report Fiscal Year 2005

Budget from the Governor's Office

Iowa Utilities Board Fiscal Year 2004 Regulatory Plans Pursuant to Executive Order Nine, August 1, 2003

Report for Iowa Utilities Board

Iowa Department of Transportation Fiscal Year 2003 Report of Savings by Using Videoconferencing Through Iowa Communications Network, Iowa Department of Transportation, December 2003

Iowa DOT savings through use of Iowa Communications Network (ICN)videoconferencing.

Biodiesel Fuel Revolving Fund Expenditures Fiscal Year 2003 Report, Iowa Department of Transportation, January 2004

Report of expenditures from the biodiesel fuel revolving fund for biodiesel fuel used in Iowa Department of Transportation vehicles.

Iowa Law Enforcement Academy Annual Report, Fiscal Year 2003

Annual Report of Law Enforcement Training Programs

Annual Report for the Iowa Highway Safety Program, Federal Fiscal Year 2003

Annual Highway Safety Evaluation Report for the Governor's Traffic Safety Bureau, Iowa Department of Public Safety