The development of a new dust uplift scheme in the Met Office Unified Model

Aeolian mineral dust aerosol is an important consideration in the Earth's radiation budget as well as a source of nutrients to oceanic and land biota. The modelling of aeolian mineral dust has been improving consistently despite the relatively sparse observations to constrain them. This study documents the development of a new dust emissions scheme in the Met Office Unified ModelTM (MetUM) based on the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) module. Four separate case studies are used to test and constrain the model output. Initial testing was undertaken on a large dust event over North Africa in March 2006 with the model constrained using AERONET data. The second case study involved testing the capability of the model to represent dust events in the Middle East without being re-tuned from the March 2006 case in the Sahara. While the model is unable to capture some of the daytime variation in AERONET AOD there is good agreement between the model and observed dust events. In the final two case studies new observations from in situ aircraft data during the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) campaigns in February and August 2006 were used. These recent observations provided further data on dust size distributions and vertical profiles to constrain the model. The modelled DODO cases were also compared to AERONET data to make sure the radiative properties of the dust were comparable to observations. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Variation of the mixing state of Saharan dust particles with atmospheric transport

Mineral dust is an important aerosol species in the Earth’s atmosphere and has a major source within North Africa, of which the Sahara forms the major part. Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry (ATOFMS) is first used to determine the mixing state of dust particles collected from the land surface in the Saharan region, showing low abundance of species such as nitrate and sulphate internally mixed with the dust mineral matrix. These data are then compared with the ATOFMS single particle mass spectra of Saharan dust particles detected in the marine atmosphere in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands, which are further compared with those from particles with longer atmospheric residence sampled at a coastal station at Mace Head, Ireland. Saharan dust particles collected near the Cape Verde Islands showed increased internally mixed nitrate but no sulphate, whilst Saharan dust particles collected on the coast of Ireland showed a very high degree of internally mixed secondary species including nitrate, sulphate and methanesulphonate. This uptake of secondary species will change the pH and hygroscopic properties of the aerosol dust and thus can influence the budgets of other reactive gases, as well as influencing the radiative properties of the particles and the availability of metals for dissolution.

Genetic diversity and structure of natural and managed populations of Cedrus atlantica (Pinaceae) assessed using random amplified polymorphic DNA

Cedrus atlantica (Pinaceae) is a large and exceptionally long-lived conifer native to the Rif and Atlas Mountains of North Africa. To assess levels and patterns of genetic diversity of this species. samples were obtained throughout the natural range in Morocco and from a forest plantation in Arbucies, Girona (Spain) and analyzed using RAPD markers. Within-population genetic diversity was high and comparable to that revealed by isozymes. Managed populations harbored levels of genetic variation similar to those found in their natural counterparts. Genotypic analyses Of Molecular variance (AMOVA) found that most variation was within populations. but significant differentiation was also found between populations. particularly in Morocco. Bayesian estimates of F,, corroborated the AMOVA partitioning and provided evidence for Population differentiation in C. atlantica. Both distance- and Bayesian-based Clustering methods revealed that Moroccan populations comprise two genetically distinct groups. Within each group, estimates of population differentiation were close to those previously reported in other gymnosperms. These results are interpreted in the context of the postglacial history of the species and human impact. The high degree of among-group differentiation recorded here highlights the need for additional conservation measures for some Moroccan Populations of C. atlantica.

Modern approaches to floristics and their impact on the region of SW Asia

Attitudes to floristics have changed considerably during the past few decades as a result of increasing and often more focused consumer demands, heightened awareness of the threats to biodiversity, information flow and overload, and the application of electronic and web-based techniques to information handling and processing. This paper will examine these concerns in relation to our floristic knowledge and needs in the region of SW Asia. Particular reference will be made to the experience gained from the Euro+Med PlantBase project for the preparation of an electronic plant-information system for Europe and the Mediterranean, with a single core list of accepted plant names and synonyms, based on consensus taxonomy agreed by a specialist network. The many challenges Ð scientific, technical and organisational Ð that it has presented will be discussed as well as the problems of handling nontaxonomic information from fields such as conservation, karyology, biosystematics and mapping. The question of regional cooperation and the sharing of efforts and resources will also be raised and attention drawn to the recent planning workshop held in Rabat (May 2002) for establishing a technical cooperation network for taxonomic capacity building in North Africa as a possible model for the SW Asia region.

U.K. HiGEM: Simulations of desert dust and biomass burning aerosols with a high-resolution atmospheric GCM

The atmospheric component of the United Kingdom’s new High-resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM) has been run with interactive aerosol schemes that include biomass burning and mineral dust. Dust emission, transport, and deposition are parameterized within the model using six particle size divisions, which are treated independently. The biomass is modeled in three nonindependent modes, and emissions are prescribed from an external dataset. The model is shown to produce realistic horizontal and vertical distributions of these aerosols for each season when compared with available satellite- and ground-based observations and with other models. Combined aerosol optical depths off the coast of North Africa exceed 0.5 both in boreal winter, when biomass is the main contributor, and also in summer, when the dust dominates. The model is capable of resolving smaller-scale features, such as dust storms emanating from the Bode´ le´ and Saharan regions of North Africa and the wintertime Bode´ le´ low-level jet. This is illustrated by February and July case studies, in which the diurnal cycles of model variables in relation to dust emission and transport are examined. The top-of-atmosphere annual mean radiative forcing of the dust is calculated and found to be globally quite small but locally very large, exceeding 20 W m22 over the Sahara, where inclusion of dust aerosol is shown to improve the model radiative balance. This work extends previous aerosol studies by combining complexity with increased global resolution and represents a step toward the next generation of models to investigate aerosol–climate interactions. 1. Introduction Accurate modeling of mineral dust is known to be important because of its radiative impact in both numerical weather prediction models (Milton et al. 2008; Haywood et

Motivation, rationale and key results from the GERBILS Saharan dust measurement campaign

The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave radiation (GERBILS) was an observational field experiment over North Africa during June 2007. The campaign involved 10 flights by the FAAM BAe-146 research aircraft over southwestern parts of the Sahara Desert and coastal stretches of the Atlantic Ocean. Objectives of the GERBILS campaign included characterisation of mineral dust geographic distribution and physical and optical properties, assessment of the impact upon radiation, validation of satellite remote sensing retrievals, and validation of numerical weather prediction model forecasts of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and size distributions. We provide the motivation behind GERBILS and the experimental design and report the progress made in each of the objectives. We show that mineral dust in the region is relatively non-absorbing (mean single scattering albedo at 550 nm of 0.97) owing to the relatively small fraction of iron oxides present (1–3%), and that detailed spectral radiances are most accurately modelled using irregularly shaped particles. Satellite retrievals over bright desert surfaces are challenging owing to the lack of spectral contrast between the dust and the underlying surface. However, new techniques have been developed which are shown to be in relatively good agreement with AERONET estimates of AOD and with each other. This encouraging result enables relatively robust validation of numerical models which treat the production, transport, and deposition of mineral dust. The dust models themselves are able to represent large-scale synoptically driven dust events to a reasonable degree, but some deficiencies remain both in the Sahara and over the Sahelian region, where cold pool outflow from convective cells associated with the intertropical convergence zone can lead to significant dust production.

Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels

Climate change projections are usually presented as 'snapshots' of change at a particular time in the future. Instead, we consider the key question 'when will specific temperature thresholds will be exceeded?'. Framing the question as "when might something happen (either permanently or temporarily)?" rather than "what might happen?" demonstrates that lowering future emissions will delay the crossing of temperature thresholds and buy valuable time for planning adaptation. For example, in higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios, a global average 2°C warming threshold is likely to be crossed by 2060, whereas in a lower emissions scenario, the crossing of this threshold is delayed up to several decades. On regional scales, however, the 2°C threshold will probably be exceeded over large parts of Eurasia, North Africa and Canada by 2040 if emissions continue to increase- well within the lifetime of many people living now.

The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) has been used to investigate the impacts of regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on boreal summer Sahel rainfall. The study focuses on the transient response of the West African monsoon (WAM) to a sudden change in regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions, including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks. The response occurs in two distinct phases: 1) fast adjustment of the atmosphere on a time scale of days to weeks (up to 3 weeks) through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions with weak hydrological cycle changes and surface feedbacks. 2) adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface with significant local hydrological cycle changes and changes in atmospheric circulation (beyond 3 weeks). European emissions lead to an increase in shortwave (SW) scattering by increased sulphate burden, leading to a decrease in surface downward SW radiation which causes surface cooling over North Africa, a weakening of the Saharan heat low and WAM, and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. In contrast, Asian emissions lead to very little change in sulphate burden over North Africa, but they induce an adjustment of the Walker Circulation which leads again to a weakening of the WAM and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. The responses to European and Asian emissions during the second phase exhibit similar large scale patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and hydrological variables, suggesting a preferred response. The results support the idea that sulphate aerosol emissions contributed to the observed decline in Sahel precipitation in the second half of the twentieth century.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. It follows that the uncertainty in cold-season Mediterranean precipitation projection will not be narrowed unless the uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response is reduced.

Relative roles of biogenic emissions and Saharan dust as ice nuclei in the Amazon basin

Some aerosol particles, known as ice nuclei, can initiate ice formation in clouds, thereby influencing precipitation, cloud dynamics and the amount of incoming and outgoing solar radiation. In the absence of biomass burning, aerosol mass concentrations in the Amazon basin are low(1). Tropical forests emit primary biological particles directly into the atmosphere; secondary organic aerosols form from the emission and oxidation of biogenic gases(2). In addition, particles derived from biomass burning in central Africa, marine aerosols, and windblown dust from North Africa(3-5) often reach the central part of the Amazon basin during the wet season. The contribution of these aerosol sources to ice nucleation in the region is uncertain. Here we present observations of the concentration and elemental composition of ice nuclei in the Amazon basin during the wet season. Using transmission electron microscopy combined with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, we show that ice nuclei are primarily composed of carbonaceous material and dust. We show that biological particles dominate the carbonaceous fraction, whereas import of Saharan dust explains the intermittent appearance of dust-containing nuclei. We conclude that ice-nucleus concentration and abundance can be explained almost entirely by local emissions of biological particles supplemented by import of Saharan dust. Using a simple model, we tentatively suggest that the contribution of local biological particles to ice nucleation is increased at higher atmospheric temperatures, whereas the contribution of dust particles is increased at lower temperatures.

Culturally-sensitive complaints of depressions and anxieties in women

Background: Current classifications of Mental Disorders are centered on Westernized concepts and constructs. Cross-cultural sensitivity emphasizes culturally-appropriate translations of symptoms and questions, assuming that concepts and constructs are applicable.Methods: Groups and individual psychiatrists from various cultures from Asia, Latin America, North Africa and Eastern Europe prepared descriptions of main symptoms and complaints of treatment-seeking women in their cultures, which are interpreted by clinicians as a manifestation of a clinically-relevant dysphoric disorder. They also transliterated the expressions of DSM IV criteria of main dysphoric disorders in their cultures.Results: In many non-western cultures the symptoms and constructs that are interpreted and treated as dysphoric disorders are mostly somatic and are different from the Western-centered DSM or ICD systems. In many cases the DSM and ICD criteria of depression and anxieties are not even acknowledged by patients.Limitations: the descriptive approach reported here is a preliminary step which involved local but Westernized clinicians-investigators following a biomedical thinking. It should be followed by a more systematic-comprehensive surveys in each culture.Conclusions: Westernized concepts and constructs of mental order and disorders are not necessarily universally applicable. Culturallysensitive phenomena, treatments and treatment responses may be diversified. Attempts at their cross-cultural harmonization should take into consideration complex interactional multi-dimensional processes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The contribution of women to the economy and social protection specially in relation to unpaid work performed by women in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Africans in the Southern European countries: Italy, Spain and Portugal

Incluye bibliografía