Score for neonatal acute physiology-II and neonatal pain predict corticospinal tract development in premature newborns

Premature infants are at risk for adverse motor outcomes, including cerebral palsy and developmental coordination disorder. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of antenatal, perinatal, and postnatal risk factors for abnormal development of the corticospinal tract, the major voluntary motor pathway, during the neonatal period. In a prospective cohort study, 126 premature neonates (24-32 weeks' gestational age) underwent serial brain imaging near birth and at term-equivalent age. With diffusion tensor tractography, mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract were measured to reflect microstructural development. Generalized estimating equation models examined associations of risk factors on corticospinal tract development. The perinatal risk factor of greater early illness severity (as measured by the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology-II [SNAP-II]) was associated with a slower rise in fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract (P = 0.02), even after correcting for gestational age at birth and postnatal risk factors (P = 0.009). Consistent with previous findings, neonatal pain adjusted for morphine and postnatal infection were also associated with a slower rise in fractional anisotropy of the corticospinal tract (P = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively). Lessening illness severity in the first hours of life might offer potential to improve motor pathway development in premature newborns.

Predicting IQ of biologically "at risk" children from age 3 to school entry:sensitivity and specificity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale IV

Predictive validity of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale Fourth Edition (S-B IV) from age 3 years to ages 4-5 years was evaluated with biologically "at risk" children without major sensory or motor impairments (n = 236). Using the standard scoring, children with full scale IQ <or = 84 on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence at age 4-5 years were poorly identified (sensitivity 54%) from the composite S-B IV score at age 3. However, sensitivity improved greatly to 78% by including as a predictor the number of subtests the child was actually able to perform at age 3 years. Measures from the Home Screening Questionnaire and ratings of mother-child interaction further improved sensitivity to 83%. The standard method for calculating the composite score on the S-B IV excludes subtests with a raw score of 0, which overestimates cognitive functioning in young biologically high risk children. Accuracy of early identification was improved significantly by considering the number of subtests the child did not perform at age 3 years.

Dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents and young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Dietary pattern (DP) analysis allows examination of the combined effects of nutrients and foods on the markers of CVD. Very few studies have examined these relationships during adolescence or young adulthood. Traditional CVD risk biomarkers were analysed in 12-15-year-olds (n 487; Young Hearts (YH)1) and again in the same individuals at 20-25 years of age (n 487; YH3). Based on 7 d diet histories, in the present study, DP analysis was performed using a posteriori principal component analysis for the YH3 cohort and the a priori Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated for both YH1 and YH3 cohorts. In the a posteriori DP analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the 'healthy' DP were found to have lower pulse wave velocity (PWV) and homocysteine concentrations, the 'sweet tooth' DP were found to have increased LDL concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure and decreased HDL concentrations, the 'drinker/social' DP were found to have lower LDL and homocysteine concentrations, but exhibited a trend towards a higher TAG concentration, and finally the 'Western' DP were found to have elevated homocysteine and HDL concentrations. In the a priori dietary score analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the Mediterranean diet were found to exhibit a trend towards a lower PWV. MDS did not track between YH1 and YH3, and nor was there a longitudinal relationship between the change in the MDS and the change in CVD risk biomarkers. In conclusion, cross-sectional analysis revealed that some associations between DP and CVD risk biomarkers were already evident in the young adult population, namely the association between the healthy DP (and the MDS) and PWV; however, no longitudinal associations were observed between these relatively short time periods.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

BACKGROUND: Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome.

METHODS: In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone.

FINDINGS: We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene signatures (p = 0.0001). We further show how our molecular profiles can be used for the early detection of aggressive cases in a clinical setting, and inform treatment decisions.

INTERPRETATION: For the first time in prostate cancer this study demonstrates the importance of integrated genomic analyses incorporating both benign and tumour tissue data in identifying molecular alterations leading to the generation of robust gene sets that are predictive of clinical outcome in independent patient cohorts.

Hypofractionated radiotherapy versus conventionally fractionated radiotherapy for patients with intermediate-risk localised prostate cancer: 2-year patient-reported outcomes of the randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 CHHiP trial

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) might detect more toxic effects of radiotherapy than do clinician-reported outcomes. We did a quality of life (QoL) substudy to assess PROs up to 24 months after conventionally fractionated or hypofractionated radiotherapy in the Conventional or Hypofractionated High Dose Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy in Prostate Cancer (CHHiP) trial.

METHODS: The CHHiP trial is a randomised, non-inferiority phase 3 trial done in 71 centres, of which 57 UK hospitals took part in the QoL substudy. Men with localised prostate cancer who were undergoing radiotherapy were eligible for trial entry if they had histologically confirmed T1b-T3aN0M0 prostate cancer, an estimated risk of seminal vesicle involvement less than 30%, prostate-specific antigen concentration less than 30 ng/mL, and a WHO performance status of 0 or 1. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive a standard fractionation schedule of 74 Gy in 37 fractions or one of two hypofractionated schedules: 60 Gy in 20 fractions or 57 Gy in 19 fractions. Randomisation was done with computer-generated permuted block sizes of six and nine, stratified by centre and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group. Treatment allocation was not masked. UCLA Prostate Cancer Index (UCLA-PCI), including Short Form (SF)-36 and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Prostate (FACT-P), or Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC) and SF-12 quality-of-life questionnaires were completed at baseline, pre-radiotherapy, 10 weeks post-radiotherapy, and 6, 12, 18, and 24 months post-radiotherapy. The CHHiP trial completed accrual on June 16, 2011, and the QoL substudy was closed to further recruitment on Nov 1, 2009. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. The primary endpoint of the QoL substudy was overall bowel bother and comparisons between fractionation groups were done at 24 months post-radiotherapy. The CHHiP trial is registered with ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN97182923.

FINDINGS: 2100 participants in the CHHiP trial consented to be included in the QoL substudy: 696 assigned to the 74 Gy schedule, 698 assigned to the 60 Gy schedule, and 706 assigned to the 57 Gy schedule. Of these individuals, 1659 (79%) provided data pre-radiotherapy and 1444 (69%) provided data at 24 months after radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 50·0 months (IQR 38·4-64·2) on April 9, 2014, which was the most recent follow-up measurement of all data collected before the QoL data were analysed in September, 2014. Comparison of 74 Gy in 37 fractions, 60 Gy in 20 fractions, and 57 Gy in 19 fractions groups at 2 years showed no overall bowel bother in 269 (66%), 266 (65%), and 282 (65%) men; very small bother in 92 (22%), 91 (22%), and 93 (21%) men; small bother in 26 (6%), 28 (7%), and 38 (9%) men; moderate bother in 19 (5%), 23 (6%), and 21 (5%) men, and severe bother in four (<1%), three (<1%) and three (<1%) men respectively (74 Gy vs 60 Gy, ptrend=0.64, 74 Gy vs 57 Gy, ptrend=0·59). We saw no differences between treatment groups in change of bowel bother score from baseline or pre-radiotherapy to 24 months.

INTERPRETATION: The incidence of patient-reported bowel symptoms was low and similar between patients in the 74 Gy control group and the hypofractionated groups up to 24 months after radiotherapy. If efficacy outcomes from CHHiP show non-inferiority for hypofractionated treatments, these findings will add to the growing evidence for moderately hypofractionated radiotherapy schedules becoming the standard treatment for localised prostate cancer.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, and the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.

Disordered sleep and myopia risk among Chinese children

PURPOSE: Disordered sleep and myopia are increasingly prevalent among Chinese children. Similar pathways may be involved in regulation of both sleep cycles and eye growth. We therefore sought to examine the association between disordered sleep and myopia in this group. METHODS: Urban primary school children participating in a clinical trial on myopia and outdoor activity underwent automated cycloplegic refraction with subjective refinement. Parents answered questions about children's sleep duration, sleep disorders (Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire [CSHQ]), near work and time spent outdoors. RESULTS: Among 1970 children, 1902 (96.5%, mean [standard deviation SD] age 9.80 [0.44] years, 53.1% boys) completed refraction and questionnaires. Myopia < = -0.50 Diopters was present in both eyes of 588 (30.9%) children (1329/3804 = 34.9% of eyes) and 1129 children (59.4%) had abnormal CSHQ scores (> 41). In logistic regression models by eye, odds of myopia < = -0.50D increased with worse CSHQ score (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.01 per point, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] [1.001, 1.02], P = 0.014) and more night-time sleep (OR 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.04, P = 0.002], while male sex (OR 0.82, 95% CI [0.70, 0.95], P = 0.008) and time outdoors (OR = 0.97, 95% CI [0.95, 0.99], P = 0.011) were associated with less myopia. The association between sleep duration and myopia was not significant (p = 0.199) for total (night + midday) sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Myopia and disordered sleep were both common in this cohort, but we did not find consistent evidence for an association between the two. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT00848900.

The Valuation Implications of Enterprise Risk Management Maturity

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is the discipline by which enterprises monitor, analyze, and control risks from across the enterprise, with the goal of identifying underlying correlations and thus optimizing the risk-taking behavior in a portfolio context. This study analyzes the valuation implications of ERM Maturity. We use data from the industry leading Risk and Insurance Management Society Risk Maturity Model over the period from 2006 to 2011, which scores firms on a five-point maturity scale. Our results suggest that firms that have reached mature levels of ERM are exhibiting a higher firm value, as measured by Tobin's Q. We find a statistically significant positive relation to the magnitude of 25 percent. Upon decomposition of the maturity score, we find that the most important aspects of ERM from a valuation perspective relate to the level of top–down executive engagement and the resultant cascade of ERM culture throughout the firm. Firms that have successfully integrated the ERM process into both their strategic activities and everyday practices display superior ability in uncovering risk dependencies and correlations across the entire enterprise and as a consequence enhanced value when undertaking the ERM maturity journey ceteris paribus.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

American Society of Anesthesiologists Score: Still Useful After 60 Years? Results of the EuSOS Study

OBJECTIVE: The European Surgical Outcomes Study described mortality following in-patient surgery. Several factors were identified that were able to predict poor outcomes in a multivariate analysis. These included age, procedure urgency, severity and type and the American Association of Anaesthesia score. This study describes in greater detail the relationship between the American Association of Anaesthesia score and postoperative mortality. METHODS: Patients in this 7-day cohort study were enrolled in April 2011. Consecutive patients aged 16 years and older undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery with a recorded American Association of Anaesthesia score in 498 hospitals across 28 European nations were included and followed up for a maximum of 60 days. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Decision tree analysis with the CHAID (SPSS) system was used to delineate nodes associated with mortality. RESULTS: The study enrolled 46,539 patients. Due to missing values, 873 patients were excluded, resulting in the analysis of 45,666 patients. Increasing American Association of Anaesthesia scores were associated with increased admission rates to intensive care and higher mortality rates. Despite a progressive relationship with mortality, discrimination was poor, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.658 (95% CI 0.642 - 0.6775). Using regression trees (CHAID), we identified four discrete American Association of Anaesthesia nodes associated with mortality, with American Association of Anaesthesia 1 and American Association of Anaesthesia 2 compressed into the same node. CONCLUSION: The American Association of Anaesthesia score can be used to determine higher risk groups of surgical patients, but clinicians cannot use the score to discriminate between grades 1 and 2. Overall, the discriminatory power of the model was less than acceptable for widespread use.

In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, denosumab significantly improved trabecular bone score (TBS), an index of trabecular microarchitecture

Background/Purpose: The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel graylevel texture index determined from lumbar spine DXA scans, correlates with 3D parameters of trabecular bone microarchitecture known to predict fracture. TBS may enhance the identification of patients at increased risk for vertebral fracture independently of bone mineral density (BMD) (Boutroy JBMR 2010; Hans JBMR 2011). Denosumab treatment for 36 months decreased bone turnover, increased BMD, and reduced new vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis (Cummings NEJM 2009). We explored the effect of denosumab on TBS over 36 months and evaluated the association between TBS and lumbar spine BMD in women who had DXA scans obtained from eligible scanners for TBS evaluation in FREEDOM. Methods: FREEDOM was a 3-year, randomized, double-blind trial that enrolled postmenopausal women with a lumbar spine or total hip DXA T-score __2.5, but not __4.0 at both sites. Women received placebo or 60 mg denosumab every 6 months. A subset of women in FREEDOM participated in a DXA substudy where lumbar spine DXA scans were obtained at baseline and months 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36. We retrospectively applied, in a blinded-to-treatment manner, a novel software program (TBS iNsightR v1.9, Med-Imaps, Pessac, France) to the standard lumbar spine DXA scans obtained in these women to determine their TBS indices at baseline and months 12, 24, and 36. From previous studies, a TBS _1.35 is considered as normal microarchitecture, a TBS between 1.35 and _1.20 as partially deteriorated, and 1.20 reflects degraded microarchitecture. Results: There were 285 women (128 placebo, 157 denosumab) with a TBS value at baseline and _1 post-baseline visit. Their mean age was 73, their mean lumbar spine BMD T-score was _2.79, and their mean lumbar spine TBS was 1.20. In addition to the robust gains in DXA lumbar spine BMD observed with denosumab (9.8% at month 36), there were consistent, progressive, and significant increases in TBS compared with placebo and baseline (Table & Figure). BMD explained a very small fraction of the variance in TBS at baseline (r2_0.07). In addition, the variance in the TBS change was largely unrelated to BMD change, whether expressed in absolute or percentage changes, regardless of treatment, throughout the study (all r2_0.06); indicating that TBS provides distinct information, independently of BMD. Conclusion: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, denosumab significantly improved TBS, an index of lumbar spine trabecular microarchitecture, independently of BMD.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Establishing an association between a peri-operative perfusion score system (PerfSCORE) and post-operative patient morbidity/mortality during CPB cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no quality assurance program that correlates patient outcome to perfusion service provided during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). A score was devised, incorporating objective parameters that would reflect the likelihood to influence patient outcome. The purpose was to create a new method for evaluating the quality of care the perfusionist provides during CPB procedures and to deduce whether it predicts patient morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We analysed 295 consecutive elective patients. We chose 10 parameters: fluid balance, blood transfused, Hct, ACT, PaO2, PaCO2, pH, BE, potassium and CPB time. Distribution analysis was performed using the Shapiro-Wilcoxon test. This made up the PerfSCORE and we tried to find a correlation to mortality rate, patient stay in the ICU and length of mechanical ventilation. Univariate analysis (UA) using linear regression was established for each parameter. Statistical significance was established when p < 0.05. Multivariate analysis (MA) was performed with the same parameters. RESULTS: The mean age was 63.8 +/- 12.6 years with 70% males. There were 180 CABG, 88 valves, and 27 combined CABG/valve procedures. The PerfSCORE of 6.6 +/- 2.4 (0-20), mortality of 2.7% (8/295), CPB time 100 +/- 41 min (19-313), ICU stay 52 +/- 62 hrs (7-564) and mechanical ventilation of 10.5 +/- 14.8 hrs (0-564) was calculated. CPB time, fluid balance, PaO2, PerfSCORE and blood transfused were significantly correlated to mortality (UA, p < 0.05). Also, CPB time, blood transfused and PaO2 were parameters predicting mortality (MA, p < 0.01). Only pH was significantly correlated for predicting ICU stay (UA). Ultrafiltration (UF) and CPB time were significantly correlated (UA, p < 0.01) while UF (p < 0.05) was the only parameter predicting mechanical ventilation duration (MA). CONCLUSIONS: CPB time, blood transfused and PaO2 are independent risk factors of mortality. Fluid balance, blood transfusion, PaO2, PerfSCORE and CPB time are independent parameters for predicting morbidity. PerfSCORE is a quality of perfusion measure that objectively quantifies perfusion performance.

Device-specific weighted T-score for two quantitative ultrasounds: operational propositions for the management of osteoporosis for 65 years and older women in Switzerland.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the diagnosis of osteoporosis are mainly applicable for dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements at the spine and hip levels. There is a growing demand for cheaper devices, free of ionizing radiation such as promising quantitative ultrasound (QUS). In common with many other countries, QUS measurements are increasingly used in Switzerland without adequate clinical guidelines. The T-score approach developed for DXA cannot be applied to QUS, although well-conducted prospective studies have shown that ultrasound could be a valuable predictor of fracture risk. As a consequence, an expert committee named the Swiss Quality Assurance Project (SQAP, for which the main mission is the establishment of quality assurance procedures for DXA and QUS in Switzerland) was mandated by the Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis (ASCO) in 2000 to propose operational clinical recommendations for the use of QUS in the management of osteoporosis for two QUS devices sold in Switzerland. Device-specific weighted "T-score" based on the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures as well as on the prediction of DXA osteoporosis at the hip, according to the WHO definition of osteoporosis, were calculated for the Achilles (Lunar, General Electric, Madison, Wis.) and Sahara (Hologic, Waltham, Mass.) ultrasound devices. Several studies (totaling a few thousand subjects) were used to calculate age-adjusted odd ratios (OR) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the prediction of osteoporotic fracture (taking into account a weighting score depending on the design of the study involved in the calculation). The ORs were 2.4 (1.9-3.2) and AUC 0.72 (0.66-0.77), respectively, for the Achilles, and 2.3 (1.7-3.1) and 0.75 (0.68-0.82), respectively, for the Sahara device. To translate risk estimates into thresholds for clinical application, 90% sensitivity was used to define low fracture and low osteoporosis risk, and a specificity of 80% was used to define subjects as being at high risk of fracture or having osteoporosis at the hip. From the combination of the fracture model with the hip DXA osteoporotic model, we found a T-score threshold of -1.2 and -2.5 for the stiffness (Achilles) determining, respectively, the low- and high-risk subjects. Similarly, we found a T-score at -1.0 and -2.2 for the QUI index (Sahara). Then a screening strategy combining QUS, DXA, and clinical factors for the identification of women needing treatment was proposed. The application of this approach will help to minimize the inappropriate use of QUS from which the whole field currently suffers.

Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.

To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.