Bayesian networks and the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science

Résumé Ce travail de thèse étudie des moyens de formalisation permettant d'assister l'expert forensique dans la gestion des facteurs influençant l'évaluation des indices scientifiques, tout en respectant des procédures d'inférence établies et acceptables. Selon une vue préconisée par une partie majoritaire de la littérature forensique et juridique - adoptée ici sans réserve comme point de départ - la conceptualisation d'une procédure évaluative est dite 'cohérente' lors qu'elle repose sur une implémentation systématique de la théorie des probabilités. Souvent, par contre, la mise en oeuvre du raisonnement probabiliste ne découle pas de manière automatique et peut se heurter à des problèmes de complexité, dus, par exemple, à des connaissances limitées du domaine en question ou encore au nombre important de facteurs pouvant entrer en ligne de compte. En vue de gérer ce genre de complications, le présent travail propose d'investiguer une formalisation de la théorie des probabilités au moyen d'un environment graphique, connu sous le nom de Réseaux bayesiens (Bayesian networks). L'hypothèse principale que cette recherche envisage d'examiner considère que les Réseaux bayesiens, en concert avec certains concepts accessoires (tels que des analyses qualitatives et de sensitivité), constituent une ressource clé dont dispose l'expert forensique pour approcher des problèmes d'inférence de manière cohérente, tant sur un plan conceptuel que pratique. De cette hypothèse de travail, des problèmes individuels ont été extraits, articulés et abordés dans une série de recherches distinctes, mais interconnectées, et dont les résultats - publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture - sont présentés sous forme d'annexes. D'un point de vue général, ce travail apporte trois catégories de résultats. Un premier groupe de résultats met en évidence, sur la base de nombreux exemples touchant à des domaines forensiques divers, l'adéquation en termes de compatibilité et complémentarité entre des modèles de Réseaux bayesiens et des procédures d'évaluation probabilistes existantes. Sur la base de ces indications, les deux autres catégories de résultats montrent, respectivement, que les Réseaux bayesiens permettent également d'aborder des domaines auparavant largement inexplorés d'un point de vue probabiliste et que la disponibilité de données numériques dites 'dures' n'est pas une condition indispensable pour permettre l'implémentation des approches proposées dans ce travail. Le présent ouvrage discute ces résultats par rapport à la littérature actuelle et conclut en proposant les Réseaux bayesiens comme moyen d'explorer des nouvelles voies de recherche, telles que l'étude de diverses formes de combinaison d'indices ainsi que l'analyse de la prise de décision. Pour ce dernier aspect, l'évaluation des probabilités constitue, dans la façon dont elle est préconisée dans ce travail, une étape préliminaire fondamentale de même qu'un moyen opérationnel.

Raman analysis of multilayer automotive paints in forensic science: measurement variability and depth profile?

The aim of this work is to study the influence of several analytical parameters on the variability of Raman spectra of paint samples. In the present study, microtome thin section and direct (no preparation) analysis are considered as sample preparation. In order to evaluate their influence on the measures, an experimental design such as 'fractional full factorial' with seven factors (including the sampling process) is applied, for a total of 32 experiments representing 160 measures. Once the influence of sample preparation highlighted, a depth profile of a paint sample is carried out by changing the focusing plane in order to measure the colored layer under a clearcoat. This is undertaken in order to avoid sample preparation such a microtome sectioning. Finally, chemometric treatments such as principal component analysis are applied to the resulting spectra. The findings of this study indicate the importance of sample preparation, or more specifically, the surface roughness, on the variability of the measurements on a same sample. Moreover, the depth profile experiment highlights the influence of the refractive index of the upper layer (clearcoat) when measuring through a transparent layer.

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Psychiatrie [Psychiatry].

The novelties in clinical psychiatry are close to somatic medicine adaptation. The clinical staging concept in psychiatry (as in cancerology) is the result of an early intervention strategy in psychotic disorders. A differentiated mode of understanding of the phases of psychiatric disorders allows a prevention oriented approach. Individualized therapeutic programmes in accordance with specific problematics favors the orientation towards focalised follow-ups, for instance CBT programmes on Internet may be proposed to patients motivated and rather autonomous. Others, on the contrary, less accessible to health care should benefit of the support of a mobile team and specific coaching to return to vocational services. Systematic follow-up of the metabolic syndrome, often induced by atypical antipsychotics, belongs to those basic adjustment processes.

Situating forensic traces in time

Situating events and traces in time is an essential problem in investigations. To date, among the typical ques- 21¦tions issued in forensic science, time has generally been unexplored. The reason for this can be traced to the 22¦complexity of the overall problem, addressed by several scientists in very limited projects usually stimulated 23¦by a specific case. Considering that such issues are recurrent and transcending the treatment of each trace 24¦separately, the formalisation of a framework to address dating issues in criminal investigation is undeniably 25¦needed. Through an iterative process consisting of extracting recurrent aspects discovered from the study of 26¦problems encountered by practitioners and reported in the literature, common mechanisms were extracted 27¦and provide understanding of underlying factors encountered in forensic practise. Three complementary ap- 28¦proaches are thus highlighted and described to formalise a preliminary framework that can be applied for the 29¦dating of traces, objects, persons and indirectly events.

Genetic analysis of sudden cardiac death victims: a survey of current forensic autopsy practices.

Autopsy-negative sudden cardiac deaths (SCD) seen in forensic practice are most often thought to be the result of sudden arrhythmic death syndrome. Postmortem genetic analysis is recommended in such cases, but is currently performed in only a few academic centers. In order to determine actual current practice, an on-line questionnaire was sent by e-mail to members of various forensic medical associations. The questions addressed routine procedures employed in cases of sudden cardiac death (autopsy ordering, macroscopic and microscopic cardiac examination, conduction tissue examination, immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy, biochemical markers, sampling and storage of material for genetic analyses, toxicological analyses, and molecular autopsy). Some questions concerned the legal and ethical aspects of genetic analyses in postmortem examinations, as well as any existing multidisciplinary collaborations in SCD cases. There were 97 respondents, mostly from European countries. Genetic testing in cases of sudden cardiac death is rarely practiced in routine forensic investigation. Approximately 60% of respondents reported not having the means to perform genetic postmortem testing and 40% do not collect adequate material to perform these investigations at a later date, despite working at university hospitals. The survey demonstrated that many of the problems involved in the adequate investigation of SCD cases are often financial in origin, due to the fact that activities in forensic medicine are often paid by and dependent on the judicial authorities. Problems also exist concerning the contact with family members and/or the family doctor, as well as the often-nonexistent collaboration with others clinicians with special expertise beneficial in the investigation of SCD cases, such as cardiologists and geneticists. This study highlights the importance in establishing guidelines for molecular autopsies in forensic medicine.

Accreditation of forensic pathology service: a priviledge or a nightmare?

Forensic experts play a major role in the legal process as they offer professional expert opinion and evidence within the criminal justice system adjudicating on the innocence or alleged guilt of an accused person. In this respect medico-legal examination is an essential part of the investigation process, determining in a scientific way, the cause(s) and manner of unexpected and/or unnatural death or bringing clinical evidence in case of physical, psychological or sexual abuse in living people. From a legal perspective, these types of investigation must meet international standards i-e it should be independent, effective and prompt. Ideally the investigations should be conducted by board certified experts in forensic medicine, endowed with a solid experience in this field, without any hierarchical relationship with the prosecuting authorities and having access to appropriate facilities in order to provide forensic reports of high quality. In this respect, there is a need for any private or public national or international authority including non-governmental organisations seeking experts qualified in forensic medicine,to have at disposal a list of specialists working in accordance with high standards of professional performance within forensic pathology services that have been successfully submitted to an official accreditation/certification process using valid and acceptable criteria. To reach this goal the National Association of Medical examiners (NAME) has elaborated an accreditation/certification check-list which should be served as decision-making support to assist inspectors appointed to evaluate applicants. In the same spirit than NAME Accreditation Standards, ECLM board decided to set up an ad hoc working group with the mission to elaborate an accreditation/certification procedure similar to the NAME's one but taking into account the realities of forensic medicine practices in Europe and restricted to post-mortem investigations. This accreditation process applies to services and not to individual practitioners by emphasizing policies and procedures rather than professional performance. In addition the standards to be complied with should be considered as the minimum standards needed to get the recognition of performing and reliable forensic pathology service.

Nouvelles techniques de stimulation cérébrale: perspectives thérapeutiques en psychiatrie [Novel brain stimulation techniques: therapeutic perspectives in psychiatry]

Recent advances have allowed the development of new physical techniques in neurology and psychiatry, such as Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS), Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS), and Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS). These techniques are already recognized as therapeutic approaches in several late stage refractory neurological disorders (Parkinson's disease, tremor, epilepsy), and currently investigated in psychiatric conditions, refractory to medical treatment (obsessive-compulsive disorder, resistant major depression). In Paralell, these new techniques offer a new window to understand the neurobiology of human behavior.

On the use of IRMS in forensic science: proposals for a methodological approach

The flourishing number of publications on the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in forensicscience denotes the enthusiasm and the attraction generated by this technology. IRMS has demonstratedits potential to distinguish chemically identical compounds coming from different sources. Despite thenumerous applications of IRMS to a wide range of forensic materials, its implementation in a forensicframework is less straightforward than it appears. In addition, each laboratory has developed its ownstrategy of analysis on calibration, sequence design, standards utilisation and data treatment without aclear consensus.Through the experience acquired from research undertaken in different forensic fields, we propose amethodological framework of the whole process using IRMS methods. We emphasize the importance ofconsidering isotopic results as part of a whole approach, when applying this technology to a particularforensic issue. The process is divided into six different steps, which should be considered for a thoughtfuland relevant application. The dissection of this process into fundamental steps, further detailed, enablesa better understanding of the essential, though not exhaustive, factors that have to be considered in orderto obtain results of quality and sufficiently robust to proceed to retrospective analyses or interlaboratorycomparisons.

Versatile iPad forensic acquisition using the Apple Camera Connection Kit

Peer reviewed

A novel semi-fragile forensic watermarking scheme for remote sensing images

Peer-reviewed

Threading libraries performance when applied to image acquisition and processing in a forensic application

Peer-reviewed