Guide to industry and foreign trade classifications for international surveys.

"BE-799."

Alcoholic beverages and reciprocal trade agreements.

Mode of access: Internet.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Topographic mappings and feed-forward neural networks

This thesis is a study of the generation of topographic mappings - dimension reducing transformations of data that preserve some element of geometric structure - with feed-forward neural networks. As an alternative to established methods, a transformational variant of Sammon's method is proposed, where the projection is effected by a radial basis function neural network. This approach is related to the statistical field of multidimensional scaling, and from that the concept of a 'subjective metric' is defined, which permits the exploitation of additional prior knowledge concerning the data in the mapping process. This then enables the generation of more appropriate feature spaces for the purposes of enhanced visualisation or subsequent classification. A comparison with established methods for feature extraction is given for data taken from the 1992 Research Assessment Exercise for higher educational institutions in the United Kingdom. This is a difficult high-dimensional dataset, and illustrates well the benefit of the new topographic technique. A generalisation of the proposed model is considered for implementation of the classical multidimensional scaling (¸mds}) routine. This is related to Oja's principal subspace neural network, whose learning rule is shown to descend the error surface of the proposed ¸mds model. Some of the technical issues concerning the design and training of topographic neural networks are investigated. It is shown that neural network models can be less sensitive to entrapment in the sub-optimal global minima that badly affect the standard Sammon algorithm, and tend to exhibit good generalisation as a result of implicit weight decay in the training process. It is further argued that for ideal structure retention, the network transformation should be perfectly smooth for all inter-data directions in input space. Finally, there is a critique of optimisation techniques for topographic mappings, and a new training algorithm is proposed. A convergence proof is given, and the method is shown to produce lower-error mappings more rapidly than previous algorithms.

Biofuel subsidies and international trade

This paper explores optimal biofuel subsidies in a general equilibrium trade model. The focus is on the production of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol, which diverts corn from use as food. In the small-country case, when the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, a second-best biofuel subsidy may or may not be positive. In the large-country case, the twin objectives of pollution reduction and terms-of-trade improvement justify a combination of crude tax and biofuel subsidy for the food exporter. Finally, we show that when both nations engage in biofuel policies, the terms-of-trade effects encourage the Nash equilibrium subsidy to be positive (negative) for the food exporting (importing) nation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A földrajzi távolság, a kulturális hasonlóság és a szabadkereskedelem hatása a borkereskedelemre = Effects on the global wine trade of geographical distance, cultural and linguistic similarity, and free trade

A globalizálódó világgazdaságban a vezető bortermelő országok egyre jelentősebb borkereskedelmet bonyolítanak le egymás között. Míg Európában a fogyasztók egyre kevesebb bort vásárolnak, addig Amerikában és Ázsiában a bor iránti kereslet folyamatosan bővül: a borkereskedelem földrajzi átrendeződése zajlik. A kulturális hasonlóság és a földrajzi távolság kereskedelemre gyakorolt hatását gyakran a kereskedelemelméletek gravitációs modelljével elemzik. E tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a fő borexportáló országok közötti földrajzi távolság, kulturális hasonlóság és szabadkereskedelem milyen hatással van a nemzetközi borkereskedelemre, annak költségeire. A regressziós becslés eredményei alátámasztják, hogy a borkereskedelem költségei alacsonyabbak, ha a kereskedelmi partnerek kulturálisan hasonlók, földrajzilag közel helyezkednek el egymáshoz, vagy van tengeri kikötőjük, tagjai a WTO-nak, illetve ha kötöttek egymással regionális kereskedelmi megállapodást. Ezenkívül megállapítható, hogy az angolszász, a latin-amerikai és az európai kulturális klaszterek elsősorban egymással kereskednek. A kutatás számos kulturális változó alkalmazásával és több ökonometriai modell, illetve becslési eljárás nagymintás tesztelésével gazdagítja a szakirodalmat. ____ In a globalizing world, major wine-producing countries export considerable quantities to the global wine market and turn over a notable trade, but in what happens European wine regions differ markedly from the New World. Here major wine producers suffered a remarkable fall in domestic wine consumption in recent decades, while New World wine producers increased their production potential and generated new foreign demand. The changes have been joined by geographical relocation of wine consumption and exports. The gravity equation can be derived from demand-side or supply-side theory-consistent estimation methods that suggest relationships between the size of the economies, geographical distances, cultural similarities, and size of their trade. The paper analyses the effects of cultural and geographical proximity, free trade, and linguistic similarity on bilateral trade in the main wine-producing countries, using a cross-section gravity model for 2012. The results suggest that larger countries export more wine, while transport costs rise in line with geographical distance and are higher for landlocked trading partners. Wine export costs are lower if trading partners are culturally similar, share a dominant religion, or are both WTO members with regional trade agreements. Anglo-Saxon, Germanic, Latin American and Latin European countries mainly trade wines within their groups. The paper looks to extend the number of trading partners, investigate the effect of language clusters, and confirm that the results are robust by different econometric methodologies.

A Market Study of Organic and Fair Trade Coffee in Bolivia

The purpose of this research is to study the commercialization of Fairtrade and Organic coffee in the Bolivia. Fairtrade and Organic coffee are alternative trade systems designed to promote the equitable and environmentally sustainable production of coffee. However, these alternative trading systems often fail to meet these goals. The producers and environment these systems are intended to protect remain marginalized. These failures are due to a number of local institutions. In order to better understand these institutions, this research conducted interviews of various stakeholders including producers, cooperative leaders, organic/Fair Trade certifiers, government agencies and private buyers. All these stakeholders influence the success of the alternative trade systems. By better understanding how these stakeholders impact the commercialization of coffee in Bolivia; new policies can be develop to improve the outcomes of alternative trade, to benefit both producers and the environment. This is especially critical in Bolivia because of the environmentally sensitive area in which coffee is grown, the potentially damaging impact of coca on the region and, the devastating economic impact to farmers.

Fast and sensitive aflatoxin B1 and total aflatoxins ELISAs for analysis of peanuts, maize and feed ingredients

Aflatoxins are a group of carcinogenic compounds produced by Aspergillus fungi that can grow on different agricultural crops. Both acute and chronic exposure to these mycotoxins can cause serious illness. Due to the high occurrence of aflatoxins in crops worldwide fast and cost-effective analytical methods are required for the identification of contaminated agricultural commodities before they are processed into final products and placed on the market. In order to provide new tools for aflatoxin screening two prototype fast ELISA methods: one for the detection of aflatoxin B₁ and the other for total aflatoxins were developed. Seven monoclonal antibodies with unique high sensitivity and at the same time good cross-reactivity profiles were produced. The monoclonal antibodies were characterized and two antibodies showing IC₅₀ of 0.037 ng/mL and 0.031 ng/mL for aflatoxin B₁ were applied in simple and fast direct competitive ELISA tests. The methods were validated for peanut matrix as this crop is one of the most affected by aflatoxin contamination. The detection capabilities of aflatoxin B₁ and total aflatoxins ELISAs were 0.4 μg/kg and 0.3 μg/kg for aflatoxin B₁, respectively, which are one of the lowest reported values. Total aflatoxins ELISA was also validated for the detection of aflatoxins B₂, G₁ and G₂. The application of the developed tests was demonstrated by screening 32 peanut samples collected from the UK retailers. Total aflatoxins ELISA was further applied to analyse naturally contaminated maize porridge and distiller's dried grain with solubles samples and the results were correlated with these obtained by UHPLC-MS/MS method.

Quantitative and Qualitative Trade-Off Analysis of Drowsy Driver Detection Methods: Single Electrode Wearable EEG Device, Multi-Electrode Wearable EEG Device, and Head-Mounted Gyroscope

Drowsy driving impairs motorists’ ability to operate vehicles safely, endangering both the drivers and other people on the road. The purpose of the project is to find the most effective wearable device to detect drowsiness. Existing research has demonstrated several options for drowsiness detection, such as electroencephalogram (EEG) brain wave measurement, eye tracking, head motions, and lane deviations. However, there are no detailed trade-off analyses for the cost, accuracy, detection time, and ergonomics of these methods. We chose to use two different EEG headsets: NeuroSky Mindwave Mobile (single-electrode) and Emotiv EPOC (14- electrode). We also tested a camera and gyroscope-accelerometer device. We can successfully determine drowsiness after five minutes of training using both single and multi-electrode EEGs. Devices were evaluated using the following criteria: time needed to achieve accurate reading, accuracy of prediction, rate of false positives vs. false negatives, and ergonomics and portability. This research will help improve detection devices, and reduce the number of future accidents due to drowsy driving.

Fast-Track Authority and International Trade Negotiations

Fast Track Authority (FTA) is the institutional procedure in the Unites States whereby Congress grants to the President the power to negotiate international trade agreements. Under FTA, Congress can only approve or reject negotiated trade deals, with no possibility of amending them. In this paper, we examine the determinants of FTA voting decisions and the implications of this institutional procedure for trade negotiations. We describe a simple two-country trade model, in which industries are unevenly distributed across con- stituencies. In the foreign country, trade negotiating authority is delegated to the executive, while in the home country Congress can retain the power to amend trade agreements. We show that legislators’ FTA voting behavior depends on the trade policy interests of their own constituencies as well as those of the majority of Congress. Empirical analysis of the determinants of all FTA votes between 1974 (when fast track was first introduced) and 2002 (when it was last granted) provides strong support for the predictions of our model.