spotlight europe 20120/05, August 2012: Confronting the crisis

The euro crisis has not gone away on holiday. In fact, it continues to generate a never-ending string of horrific headlines. Where is it all going to end? In this article we describe the proposed remedies that are currently being discussed, and what blue and red eurobonds, euro bills, FIRE and the debt redemption fund can actually achieve.

spotlight europe #2012/05, August 2012: Der Krise die Stirn bieten = Confronting the crisis

No abstract.

Intra-Euro rebalancing is inevitable, but insufficient. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/15, August 2012

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root of the euro crisis. Intra-euro rebalancing through declines in unit labour costs (ULC) in southern Europe, and ULC increases in northern Europe should continue, but has limits because: The share of intra-euro trade has declined. Intra-euro trade balances have already adjusted to a great extent. The intra-euro real exchange rates of Greece, Portugal and Spain have also either already adjusted or do not indicate significant appreciations since 2000. There are only two main current account surplus countries, Germany and the Netherlands. A purely intra-euro adjustment strategy would require too-significant wage increases in northern countries and wage declines in southern countries, which do not seem to be feasible. Before the crisis, the euro was significantly overvalued despite the close-to balanced current account position. The euro has depreciated recently, but more is needed to support the extra-euro trade of southern euro-area members. A weaker euro would also boost exports, growth, inflation and wage increases in Germany, thereby helping further intra-euro adjustment and the survival of the euro.

The implications for the EU and national budgets of the use of EU instruments for macro-financial stability. CEPS Special Report, 4 September 2012

The euro crisis has forced member states and the EU institutions to create a series of new instruments to safeguard macro-financial stability of the Union. This study describes the status of existing instruments, the role of the European Parliament and how the use of the instruments impinges on the EU budget also through their effects on national budgets. In addition, it presents a survey of other possible instruments that have been proposed in recent years (e.g. E-bonds and eurobonds), in order to provide an assessment of how EU macro-financial stability assistance could evolve in the future and what could be its impact on EU public finances.

The euro crisis: ten roots, but fewer solutions. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/17, October 2012

Many factors have contributed to the euro crisis. Some have been addressed by policymakers, even if belatedly, and European Union member states have been willing to improve the functioning of the euro area by agreeing to relinquish national sovereignty in some important areas. However, the most pressing issue threatening the integrity, even the existence, of the euro, has not been addressed: the deepening economic contraction in southern euro-area member states. The common interest lies in preserving the integrity of the euro area and in offering these countries improved prospects. Domestic structural reform and appropriate fiscal consolidation, wage increases and slower fiscal consolidation in economically stronger euro-area countries, a weaker euro exchange rate, debt restructuring and an investment programme should be part of the arsenal. In the medium term, more institutional change will be necessary to complement the planned overhaul of the euro area institutional framework. This will include the deployment of a euro-area economic stabilising tool, managing the overall fiscal stance of the euro area, some form of Eurobonds and measures to make euro-area level decision making bodies more effective and democratically legitimate.

Smart choices for growth. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/21, November 2012

Recovery in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain is held back in part by structural barriers. Overcoming these requires structural reform and public investment. Given the limited availability of political and financial capital, prioritising reform efforts and spending is important, but difficult. The different success factors for individual sectors are complementary. Using the example of the high-tech industry, we make the case that only investing in one success factor (eg broadband infrastructure) without having a sufficient endowment of others (eg education) is unlikely to make the sector successful. One consequence of the complementarity of the different success factors is that public investment and reform efforts should be fine-tuned in order to match the endowment of other factors. This might imply an increase in efforts to tackle several structural barriers at the same time, but it might also imply reducing investment in less promising fields. This in turn requires strategic thinking about whether it is worthwhile pursuing development strategies that require investment in many success factors but that do not promise much success. Such a strategic approach to public investment and reform efforts might make the allocation of scarce public financial and political capital more efficient.

The role of competition and state aid policy in financial and monetary law

During the financial crisis, companies and lenders found themselves in distressed situations. Competition authorities across the globe had to deal with controversial issues such as the application of the failing firm defence in merger transactions as well as assessment of emergency aid granted by states. This article considers competition policy in periods of crisis, in particular the failing firm defence in merger control and its state aid policy.

Executive pay and performance: did bankers’ bonuses cause the crisis?

This paper examines the pay-performance relationship between executive cash compensation (including bonuses) and company performance for a sample of large UK companies, focusing particularly on the financial services industry, since incentive misalignment has been blamed as one of the factors causing the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. Although we find that pay in the financial services sector is high, the cash-plus-bonus pay-performance sensitivity of financial firms is not significantly higher than in other sectors. Consequently, we conclude that it unlikely that incentive structures could be held responsible for inducing bank executives to focus on short-term results.

IS capabilities for supporting post crisis regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2007-2009, has precipitated large scale regulatory change. Financial organizations are faced with implementing new regulations of considerable breadth and depth. Firms are faced with engaging in complex and costly change management programs at a time when profits are diminished. Furthermore, investors are becoming increasingly focused on compliance are seeking to ensure that organizations can demonstrate robust compliance practices as part of their due diligence process .The role of IS in underpinning stable, is paramount. IS allows the stable and consistent controls for meeting regulations in order to ensure long term effective compliance. Consequently, our study explores the IS capabilities which support the post crisis regulatory landscape. We identify eight key capabilities: Managing Internal Controls, Measuring Monitoring and Reporting Transactions, IS Development and Procurement, Managing Third Parties, Sharing and Selecting Best Practice, IS Leadership, Data Management and Enabling Cultural Change.

Building post crisis watchtowers: investment management Systems and new institutional logics for regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has precipitated large scale regulatory change. Tight deadlines for implementation require organizations to start working on remediation projects before final drafts of regulations are crystalized. Firms are faced with engaging in complex and costly change management programs at a time when profits are diminished. As a consequence of these factors, pre-crisis logics for organizing compliance practices are being questioned and new approaches introduced. Our study explores the use of Investment Management Systems (IMS) in facilitating compliance arrangements. Our motivation is to understand the new logics and the part played by IMS in supporting these approaches. The study adopts an institutional logics perspective to explore the use of such systems at eight financial organizations. The study found new logics for organizing compliance include consolidation, centralization, harmonization and consistency and that the IMS plays an important role in supporting and enabling related activities.

Institutional pressures on financial services firms: the role of information systems in regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2008 led to new international regulatory controls for the governance, risk and compliance of financial services firms. Information systems play a critical role here as political, functional and social pressures may lead to the deinstitutionalization of existing structures, processes and practices. This research examines how an investment management system is introduced by a leading IT vendor across eight client sites in the post-crisis era. Using institutional theory, it examines changes in working practices occurring at the environmental and organizational levels and the ways in which technological interventions are used to apply disciplinary effects in order to prevent inappropriate behaviors. The results extend the constructs of deinstitutionalization and identify empirical predictors for the deinstitutionalization of compliance and trading practices within financial organizations.

A review of Islamic mutual funds’ financial performance and investment style in Muslim and non-Muslim countries

Islamic finance has grown beyond its reputation of providing small-scale banking options and now provides investment and financing options for complex large-scale commercial transactions. Islamic investments are one area that has attracted the attention of investors due to its performance, especially during the economic downturn. The Shari’ah compliance nature of Islamic funds provides an opportunity for those Muslim investors to be part of the global investment sector who have previously been reluctant to invest in conventional mutual funds. The fact that the funds’ managers are prohibited from investing in activities such as weapons production, alcohol production and interest-bearing finance operations, makes Islamic mutual funds also attractive for those Non-Muslim investors who wish to invest ethically. Today there are hundreds of Islamic equity indices offered by Dow Jones, FTSE, MSCI and S&P. Despite the growing importance of Islamic funds, there have been limited studies exploring the performance of Islamic funds worldwide. Due to very limited data sets and not too rigorous analytical methods, these existent studies have neither investigated Islamic funds’ financial performance in noticeable detail nor analysed the investment style of more than six funds. For instance, relevant questions such as the financial performance of Islamic mutual funds’ beyond their investment styles or a difference in performance between funds from Muslim and non-Muslim countries have nearly not been investigated at all. Very recently, a study by Hoepner, Rammal and Rezec (2011) analysed the financial performance and investment style of 262 Islamic equity funds from 20 countries in five regions (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Gulf Cooperative Council-GCC, and North America). As comparison, previous studies did not even analyse 60 funds. Hoepner et al.’s study sampled a period of two decades and was therefore able to test the performance of the funds during economic booms as well as economic downturns. The findings of the study provide new insights into the performance of Islamic mutual funds in Muslim and Western markets and during financial crisis.

Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction

The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the emerging markets

A presente dissertação investiga a relação empírica entre a crise financeira de 2007-2009, a crise da dívida soberana de 2010-2012 e a recente desaceleração dos mercados de capitais nos mercados emergentes. A exposição dos mercados emergentes à crise nos desenvolvidos é quantificada através de um modelo de interdependência de factores. Os resultados mostram que estes sofreram, de facto, um choque provocado por ambas as crises. No entanto, este foi um choque de curta duração enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos ainda lutavam com as consequências resultantes das sucessivas crises financeiras. A análise do modelo mostra ainda que após a crise da divida soberana, enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos iniciam a sua recuperação, os emergentes desaceleram o seu crescimento. De forma a completar a análise do modelo foi efectuado um estudo sobre a influência dos fluxos de capitais entre os mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos na direcção do seu crescimento, revelando que existe uma relação entre estes dois eventos.

The importance of firms' strategic resources and capabilities in crisis situations

The general idea of this research is to analyze overall firm performance before and after the global financial crisis of 2008. The main question is: What kind of strategies did companies adopt that led to positive business performance after the crisis? Are there any particular competitive advantages that bring better performance in the case of an economic downturn? This research focuses on competitive advantage gained by resource-based view attributes of a product (quality, durability and prestige) and dynamic capabilities (strategic flexibility in product development and technological innovation ability). The economic crisis setting provides a proper background to analyze the competitive advantage strategies in a dynamic, low-probability environment to determine which are most worth adopting in the business world. I employ an OLS regression analysis in order to measure the business performance of 136 Brazilian firms across four years – 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012. The findings indicate that even though all of the strategic resources and capabilities positively influence firm performance in expansionary periods, only the superior product characteristics are pertinent in surviving an economic downturn.