Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

Subsidies as Optimal Fiscal Stimuli

In the theoretical macroeconomics literature, fiscal policy is almost uniformly taken to mean taxing and spending by a ‘benevolent government’ that exploits the potential aggregate demand externalities inherent in the imperfectly competitive nature of goods markets. Whilst shown to raise aggregate output and employment, these policies crowd-out private consumption and hence typically reduce welfare. In this paper we consider the use of ‘tax-and-subsidise’ instead of ‘taxand- spend’ policies on account of their widespread use by governments, even in the recent recession, to stimulate economic activity. Within a static general equilibrium macro-model with imperfectly competitive good markets we examine the effect of wage and output subsidies and show that, for a small open economy, positive tax and subsidy rates exist which maximise welfare, rendering no intervention as a suboptimal state. We also show that, within a two-country setting, a Nash non-cooperative symmetric equilibrium with positive tax and subsidy rates exists, and that cooperation between trading partners in setting these rates is more expansionary and leads to an improvement upon the non-cooperative solution.

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

Much research suggests that sporting events can trigger domestic violence with recent evidence suggesting that pre-match expectations (which can be interpreted as reference points) play an especially important role in this relationship. In particular, unexpectedly disappointing results have been associated with large increases in domestic violence. This paper contributes to this literature using a new data set containing every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. We find that Old Firm matches, where Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play, are associated with large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the timing or the outcome of the match). Non-Old Firm matches tend to have little impact on domestic violence. Furthermore, we fi nd little evidence for the importance of reference points. Matches with disappointing outcomes, relative to pre-match expectations, are found to be associated with unusual increases in domestic violence only in a very limited set of matches.

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

Much research suggests that sporting events can trigger domestic violence with recent evidence suggesting that pre-match expectations (which can be interpreted as reference points) play an especially important role in this relationship. In particular, unexpectedly disappointing results have been associated with large increases in domestic violence. This paper contributes to this literature using a new data set containing every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. We find that Old Firm matches, where Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play, are associated with large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the timing or the outcome of the match). Non-Old Firm matches tend to have little impact on domestic violence. Furthermore, we find little evidence for the importance of reference points. Matches with disappointing outcomes, relative to pre-match expectations, are found to be associated with unusual increases in domestic violence only in a very limited set of matches.

Partner Selection into Policy Relevant Field Experiments

This study investigates the issue of self-selection of stakeholders into participation and collaboration in policy-relevant experiments. We document and test the implications of self-selection in the context of randomised policy experiment we conducted in primary schools in the UK. The main questions we ask are (1) is there evidence of selection on key observable characteristics likely to matter for the outcome of interest and (2) does selection matter for the estimates of treatment eff ects. The experimental work consists in testing the e ffects of an intervention aimed at encouraging children to make more healthy choices at lunch. We recruited schools through local authorities and randomised schools across two incentive treatments and a control group. We document the selection taking place both at the level of local authorities and at the school level. Overall we nd mild evidence of selection on key observables such as obesity levels and socio-economic characteristics. We find evidence of selection along indicators of involvement in healthy lifestyle programmes at the school level, but the magnitude is small. Moreover, We do not find signifi cant di erences in the treatment e ffects of the experiment between variables which, albeit to a mild degree, are correlated with selection into the experiment. To our knowledge, this is the rst study providing direct evidence on the magnitude of self-selection in fi eld experiments.

Ultrastructure of Giardia duodenalis trophozoites group from hamster: some relevant aspects

Throphozoites of Giardia duodenalis group obtained from fragments or scratched of hamster's mucosa were examined by transission electron microscopy. The fine structure of the trophozoites are presented and comapred with those described for other animals. Some of the trophozoites present the cytoplasm full of glycogen, rough endoplasmic reticulum-like structures and homogeneous inclusions not enclosed by membranes, recognized as lipid drops, which had not been observed in Giardia from other animals. The adhesive disk is composed of a layer of microtubules, from which fibrous ribbons extend into the cytoplasm; these ribbons are linked by layer of crossbridge filaments that shows an intermediary dense band, described for the first time in this paper. The authors regard this band as the result of the cross-bridge filaments slinding in the medium region between adjacent fibrous ribbons, and suggest a contractile activity for them. The role of the adhesive disk on the trophozoite mechanism of attachment to host mucosa is also discussed.

Experimental design for acquiring relevant data to address the issue of comparing consecutively manufactured tools and firearms

The comparison of consecutively manufactured tools and firearms has provided much, but not all, of the basis for the profession of firearm and toolmark examination. The authors accept the fundamental soundness of this approach but appeal to the experimental community to close two minor gaps in the experimental procedure. We suggest that "blinding" and attention to appropriateness of other experimental conditions that would consolidate the foundations of our profession. We do not suggest that previous work is unsound.

The behavioral relevance and top-down susceptibility of early, low level multisensory interactions in humans

Abstract (English)General backgroundMultisensory stimuli are easier to recognize, can improve learning and a processed faster compared to unisensory ones. As such, the ability an organism has to extract and synthesize relevant sensory inputs across multiple sensory modalities shapes his perception of and interaction with the environment. A major question in the scientific field is how the brain extracts and fuses relevant information to create a unified perceptual representation (but also how it segregates unrelated information). This fusion between the senses has been termed "multisensory integration", a notion that derives from seminal animal single-cell studies performed in the superior colliculus, a subcortical structure shown to create a multisensory output differing from the sum of its unisensory inputs. At the cortical level, integration of multisensory information is traditionally deferred to higher classical associative cortical regions within the frontal, temporal and parietal lobes, after extensive processing within the sensory-specific and segregated pathways. However, many anatomical, electrophysiological and neuroimaging findings now speak for multisensory convergence and interactions as a distributed process beginning much earlier than previously appreciated and within the initial stages of sensory processing.The work presented in this thesis is aimed at studying the neural basis and mechanisms of how the human brain combines sensory information between the senses of hearing and touch. Early latency non-linear auditory-somatosensory neural response interactions have been repeatedly observed in humans and non-human primates. Whether these early, low-level interactions are directly influencing behavioral outcomes remains an open question as they have been observed under diverse experimental circumstances such as anesthesia, passive stimulation, as well as speeded reaction time tasks. Under laboratory settings, it has been demonstrated that simple reaction times to auditory-somatosensory stimuli are facilitated over their unisensory counterparts both when delivered to the same spatial location or not, suggesting that audi- tory-somatosensory integration must occur in cerebral regions with large-scale spatial representations. However experiments that required the spatial processing of the stimuli have observed effects limited to spatially aligned conditions or varying depending on which body part was stimulated. Whether those divergences stem from task requirements and/or the need for spatial processing has not been firmly established.Hypotheses and experimental resultsIn a first study, we hypothesized that auditory-somatosensory early non-linear multisensory neural response interactions are relevant to behavior. Performing a median split according to reaction time of a subset of behavioral and electroencephalographic data, we found that the earliest non-linear multisensory interactions measured within the EEG signal (i.e. between 40-83ms post-stimulus onset) were specific to fast reaction times indicating a direct correlation of early neural response interactions and behavior.In a second study, we hypothesized that the relevance of spatial information for task performance has an impact on behavioral measures of auditory-somatosensory integration. Across two psychophysical experiments we show that facilitated detection occurs even when attending to spatial information, with no modulation according to spatial alignment of the stimuli. On the other hand, discrimination performance with probes, quantified using sensitivity (d'), is impaired following multisensory trials in general and significantly more so following misaligned multisensory trials.In a third study, we hypothesized that behavioral improvements might vary depending which body part is stimulated. Preliminary results suggest a possible dissociation between behavioral improvements andERPs. RTs to multisensory stimuli were modulated by space only in the case when somatosensory stimuli were delivered to the neck whereas multisensory ERPs were modulated by spatial alignment for both types of somatosensory stimuli.ConclusionThis thesis provides insight into the functional role played by early, low-level multisensory interac-tions. Combining psychophysics and electrical neuroimaging techniques we demonstrate the behavioral re-levance of early and low-level interactions in the normal human system. Moreover, we show that these early interactions are hermetic to top-down influences on spatial processing suggesting their occurrence within cerebral regions having access to large-scale spatial representations. We finally highlight specific interactions between auditory space and somatosensory stimulation on different body parts. Gaining an in-depth understanding of how multisensory integration normally operates is of central importance as it will ultimately permit us to consider how the impaired brain could benefit from rehabilitation with multisensory stimula-Abstract (French)Background théoriqueDes stimuli multisensoriels sont plus faciles à reconnaître, peuvent améliorer l'apprentissage et sont traités plus rapidement comparé à des stimuli unisensoriels. Ainsi, la capacité qu'un organisme possède à extraire et à synthétiser avec ses différentes modalités sensorielles des inputs sensoriels pertinents, façonne sa perception et son interaction avec l'environnement. Une question majeure dans le domaine scientifique est comment le cerveau parvient à extraire et à fusionner des stimuli pour créer une représentation percep- tuelle cohérente (mais aussi comment il isole les stimuli sans rapport). Cette fusion entre les sens est appelée "intégration multisensorielle", une notion qui provient de travaux effectués dans le colliculus supérieur chez l'animal, une structure sous-corticale possédant des neurones produisant une sortie multisensorielle différant de la somme des entrées unisensorielles. Traditionnellement, l'intégration d'informations multisen- sorielles au niveau cortical est considérée comme se produisant tardivement dans les aires associatives supérieures dans les lobes frontaux, temporaux et pariétaux, suite à un traitement extensif au sein de régions unisensorielles primaires. Cependant, plusieurs découvertes anatomiques, électrophysiologiques et de neuroimageries remettent en question ce postulat, suggérant l'existence d'une convergence et d'interactions multisensorielles précoces.Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse sont destinés à mieux comprendre les bases neuronales et les mécanismes impliqués dans la combinaison d'informations sensorielles entre les sens de l'audition et du toucher chez l'homme. Des interactions neuronales non-linéaires précoces audio-somatosensorielles ont été observées à maintes reprises chez l'homme et le singe dans des circonstances aussi variées que sous anes- thésie, avec stimulation passive, et lors de tâches nécessitant un comportement (une détection simple de stimuli, par exemple). Ainsi, le rôle fonctionnel joué par ces interactions à une étape du traitement de l'information si précoce demeure une question ouverte. Il a également été démontré que les temps de réaction en réponse à des stimuli audio-somatosensoriels sont facilités par rapport à leurs homologues unisensoriels indépendamment de leur position spatiale. Ce résultat suggère que l'intégration audio- somatosensorielle se produit dans des régions cérébrales possédant des représentations spatiales à large échelle. Cependant, des expériences qui ont exigé un traitement spatial des stimuli ont produits des effets limités à des conditions où les stimuli multisensoriels étaient, alignés dans l'espace ou encore comme pouvant varier selon la partie de corps stimulée. Il n'a pas été établi à ce jour si ces divergences pourraient être dues aux contraintes liées à la tâche et/ou à la nécessité d'un traitement de l'information spatiale.Hypothèse et résultats expérimentauxDans une première étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que les interactions audio- somatosensorielles précoces sont pertinentes pour le comportement. En effectuant un partage des temps de réaction par rapport à la médiane d'un sous-ensemble de données comportementales et électroencépha- lographiques, nous avons constaté que les interactions multisensorielles qui se produisent à des latences précoces (entre 40-83ms) sont spécifique aux temps de réaction rapides indiquant une corrélation directe entre ces interactions neuronales précoces et le comportement.Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que si l'information spatiale devient perti-nente pour la tâche, elle pourrait exercer une influence sur des mesures comportementales de l'intégration audio-somatosensorielles. Dans deux expériences psychophysiques, nous montrons que même si les participants prêtent attention à l'information spatiale, une facilitation de la détection se produit et ce toujours indépendamment de la configuration spatiale des stimuli. Cependant, la performance de discrimination, quantifiée à l'aide d'un index de sensibilité (d') est altérée suite aux essais multisensoriels en général et de manière plus significative pour les essais multisensoriels non-alignés dans l'espace.Dans une troisième étude, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que des améliorations comportementales pourraient différer selon la partie du corps qui est stimulée (la main vs. la nuque). Des résultats préliminaires suggèrent une dissociation possible entre une facilitation comportementale et les potentiels évoqués. Les temps de réactions étaient influencés par la configuration spatiale uniquement dans le cas ou les stimuli somatosensoriels étaient sur la nuque alors que les potentiels évoqués étaient modulés par l'alignement spatial pour les deux types de stimuli somatosensorielles.ConclusionCette thèse apporte des éléments nouveaux concernant le rôle fonctionnel joué par les interactions multisensorielles précoces de bas niveau. En combinant la psychophysique et la neuroimagerie électrique, nous démontrons la pertinence comportementale des ces interactions dans le système humain normal. Par ailleurs, nous montrons que ces interactions précoces sont hermétiques aux influences dites «top-down» sur le traitement spatial suggérant leur occurrence dans des régions cérébrales ayant accès à des représentations spatiales de grande échelle. Nous soulignons enfin des interactions spécifiques entre l'espace auditif et la stimulation somatosensorielle sur différentes parties du corps. Approfondir la connaissance concernant les bases neuronales et les mécanismes impliqués dans l'intégration multisensorielle dans le système normale est d'une importance centrale car elle permettra d'examiner et de mieux comprendre comment le cerveau déficient pourrait bénéficier d'une réhabilitation avec la stimulation multisensorielle.

Bihippocampal damage with emotional dysfunction: impaired auditory recognition of fear.

A right-handed man developed a sudden transient, amnestic syndrome associated with bilateral hemorrhage of the hippocampi, probably due to Urbach-Wiethe disease. In the 3rd month, despite significant hippocampal structural damage on imaging, only a milder degree of retrograde and anterograde amnesia persisted on detailed neuropsychological examination. On systematic testing of recognition of facial and vocal expression of emotion, we found an impairment of the vocal perception of fear, but not that of other emotions, such as joy, sadness and anger. Such selective impairment of fear perception was not present in the recognition of facial expression of emotion. Thus emotional perception varies according to the different aspects of emotions and the different modality of presentation (faces versus voices). This is consistent with the idea that there may be multiple emotion systems. The study of emotional perception in this unique case of bilateral involvement of hippocampus suggests that this structure may play a critical role in the recognition of fear in vocal expression, possibly dissociated from that of other emotions and from that of fear in facial expression. In regard of recent data suggesting that the amygdala is playing a role in the recognition of fear in the auditory as well as in the visual modality this could suggest that the hippocampus may be part of the auditory pathway of fear recognition.

Early antibiotic administration affects the gut barrier function and the immune response to oral antigen in suckling rats

Abstract: The increasingly high hygienic standards characterizing westernized societies correlate with an increasingly high prevalence of allergic disease. Initially based on these observations, the hygiene hypothesis postulates that reduced microbial stimulation during infancy impairs the immune system development and increases the risk of allergy. Moreover, there is increasing evidence that the crosstalk existing between the intestine and the resident microbiota is crucial for gut homeostasis. In particular, bacterial colonization of the gut affects the integrity of the gut barrier and stimulates the development of the gut associated immune tissue, both phenomena being essential for the immune system to mount a controlled response to food antigens. Therefore, alterations in the microbial colonization process, by compromising the barrier homeostasis, may increase the risk of food allergy. In this context, antibiotic treatment, frequently prescribed during infancy, affects gut colonization by bacteria. However, little is known about the impact of alterations in the colonization process on the maturation of the gut barrier and on the immunological response to oral antigens. The objective of this work was to determine the impact of a commercial antibiotic preparation employed in pediatric settings on the gut barrier status at the critical period of the suckling/weaning transition and to evaluate the physiological consequences of this treatment in terms of immune response to food antigens. We established an antibiotic-treated suckling rat model relevant to the pediatric population in terms of type, dose and route of administration of the antibiotic and of changes in the patterns of microbial colonization. Oral tolerance to a novel luminal antigen (ovalbumin) was impaired when the antigen was introduced during antibiotic treatment. These results paralleled to alterations in the intestinal permeability to macromolecules and reduced intestinal expression of genes coding for the major histocomptatibility complex II molecules, which suggest a reduced capacity of antigen handling and presentation in the intestine of the antibiotic-treated animals. In addition, low luminal IgA levels and reduced intestinal expression of genes coding for antimicrobial proteins suggest that protection against pathogens was reduced under antibiotic treatment. In conclusion, we observed in suckling rats that treatment with abroad-spectrum antibiotic commonly used in pediatric practices reduced the capacity of the immune system to develop tolerance. The impact of the antibiotic treatment on the immune response to the antigen-was likely mediated by the alterations of the gut microbiota, through impairment in the mechanisms of antigen handling and presentation. This work reinforces the body of data supporting a key role of the intestinal microbiota modulating the risk of allergy development and leads us to propose that the introduction of new food antigens should be avoided during antibiotic treatment in infants. Résumé: L'augmentation du niveau d'hygiène caractérisant les sociétés occidentales semble être fortement corrélée avec l'augmentation des cas d'allergie dans ces pays. De cette observation est née l'hypothèse qu'une diminution des stimuli microbiens pendant l'enfance modifie le développement du système immunitaire augmentant ainsi le risque d'allergie. En ce sens, un nombre croissant de données indiquent que les interactions existant entre l'intestin et les bactéries résidantes sont cruciales pour l'équilibre du système. En effet, la présence de bactéries dans l'intestin affecte l'intégrité de sa fonction de barrière et stimule le développement du système immunitaire intestinal. Ces deux paramètres étant essentiels à la mise en place d'une réponse contrôlée vis à vis d'un antigène reçu oralement, toute modification du processus naturel de colonisation compromettant l'équilibre intestinal pourrait augmenter le risque d'allergie. Les traitements aux antibiotiques, fréquemment prescrits en pédiatrie, modifient de façon conséquente le processus de colonisation bactérienne. Cependant peu de données existent concernant l'impact d'une altération du processus de colonisation sur la maturation de la barrière intestinale et de la réponse immunitaire dirigée contre un antigène. L'objectif de ce travail était de déterminer l'impact d'un antibiotique commercial et employé en pédiatrie sur l'état de la barrière intestinale au moment critique du sevrage et d'évaluer les conséquences physiologiques d'un tel traitement sur la réponse immune à un antigène alimentaire. Nous avons mis en place un modèle de rats allaités, traités à l'antibiotique, le plus proche possible des pratiques pédiatriques, en terme de nature, dose et voie d'administration de l'antibiotique. Nous avons constaté que l'établissement de la tolérance orale à un nouvel antigène (l'ovalbumine) est altéré quand celui-ci est donné pour la première fois au cours du traitement antibiotique. Ces résultats coïncident avec une diminution de la perméabilité intestinale aux macromolécules, ainsi qu'avec une diminution de l'expression des gènes codant pour les molécules du complexe majeur d'histocomptatibilité de classe II, suggérant une modification de l'apprêtement et de la présentation de l'antigène au niveau intestinal chez les rats traités à l'antibiotique. De plus, un faible taux d'IgA et une diminution de l'expression des gènes codant pour des protéines antimicrobiennes, observés après l'administration d'antibiotique, laissent à penser que la protection contre un pathogène est diminuée lors d'un traitement antibiotique. En conclusion, nous avons observé qu'un traitement antibiotique à large spectre d'activité, couramment utilisé en pédiatrie, réduit la capacité d'induction de la tolérance orale chez le rat allaité. L'impact du traitement antibiotique sur la réponse immune semble induite par l'altération de la flore intestinale via son effet sur les mécanismes d'apprêtement et de présentation de l'antigène. Ce travail renforce l'ensemble des données existantes qui accorde à la flore intestinale un rôle clef dans la modulation du risque de développement d'allergie et nous amène à recommander d'éviter l'introduction d'un nouvel aliment lorsqu'un enfant est traité aux antibiotiques.