985 resultados para FORECAST COMBINATION


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In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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A new process has been suggested for converting natural gas to ethylene by combining oxidative coupling of methane with ethane dehydrogenation to provide an efficient method for the utilization of thermicity and CO2. From their thermodynamics, it is clear that the exothermicity from CH4 oxidative coupling reaction (DeltaH(800degreesC) = -174.3 kJ mol(-1)) can support C2H6 dehydrogenation by CO2 (DeltaH(800degreesC) = + 180.2 kJ mol(-1)). Meanwhile, the two reactions can be conducted under the same reaction conditions, such as the reaction temperature and reaction pressure as well as space velocity. In addition, the CO2 yielded from CH4 oxidative coupling reaction can be directly used for C2H6 dehydrogenation. Two kinds of catalyst are developed for this combined process with an achievement, from which C2H4 content in tail gas can reach attractively 16.4%, which can be used directly to produce ethylbenzene by the alkylation of benzene. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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973 Project of China [2006CB701305]; "863" Project of China [2009AA12Z148]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40971224]

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Effects of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and Ni2O3 on the flame retardancy of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) have been studied. A combination of MWCNTs and Ni2O3 showed a synergistic effect in improving the flame retardancy of LLDPE compared with LLDPE composites containing MWCNTs or Ni2O3 alone. As a result, the peak value of heat release rate measured by cone calorimeter was obviously decreased in the LLDPE/MWCNTs/Ni2O3 Composites. According to the results from rheological tests, carbonization experiments, and structural characterization of residual char, the improved flame retardancy was partially attributed to the formation of a networklike structure due to the good dispersion of MWCNTs in LLDPE matrix, and partially to the carbonization of degradation products of LLDPE catalyzed by Ni catalyst originated from Ni2O3, More importantly, both viscoelastic characteristics and catalytic carbonization behavior of LLDPE/MWCNTs/Ni2O3 composites acted in concert to result in a synergistic effect in improving the flame retardancy.

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Novel bump-surface multicompartment micelles formed by a linear amphiphilic ABC triblock copolymer via self-assembly in selective solvent were successfully observed both in simulation and experiment. The results revealed that the block A forms the most inner core, and the blocks B and C form the inner and outer layers, respectively, and the bumps were formed by block A and more likely to be born on curving surfaces. Moreover, the micelle shape could be controlled by changing the solvent selectivity of the blocks A and B. Spherical, cylindrical, and discoidal micelles with bumpy surfaces were obtained both in experiment and simulation.

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SiO2-CaO-P2O5 ternary bioactive glass ceramic nanoparticles were prepared via the combination of sol-gel and coprecipitation processes. Precursors of silicon and calcium were hydrolyzed in acidic solution and gelated in alkaline condition together with ammonium dibasic phosphate. Gel particles were separated by centrifugation, followed by freeze drying, and calcination procedure to obtain the bioactive glass ceramic nanoparticles. The investigation of the influence of synthesis temperature on the nanopartilce's properties showed that the reaction temperature played an important role in the crystallinity of nanoparticle. The glass ceramic particles synthesized at 55 degrees C included about 15% crystalline phase, while at 25 degrees C and 40 degrees C the entire amorphous nanopowder could be obtained.

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To study the content variation of ginsenosides and alkaloids during combination of ginseng with veratrum nigrum, the ginsenosides and alkaloids in the decoction of ginseng with veratrum nigrum were analyzed and compared by high performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS) and electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). In the compatible decoction, eight ginsenosides and eight alkaloids. were detected, and the contents of six ginsenosides were found to be reduced, on the contrary, the contents of six alkaloids were increased. During combination of ginseng with veratrum nigrum, the contents of ginsenosides were reduced and those of the toxic alkaloids were increased. From the chemical point of view, the traditional theory is right that ginseng and veratrum nigrum are incompatible with each other.

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Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry(MALDI-TOF-MS), in combination with immunoaffinity provided a powerful tool for determining epitope (antigenic determinant) in protein. The linear epitope of the beta(2)-microglobulin was characterized in the paper. The method as follows: at first beta(2)-microglobulin was digested by a proteolytic enzyme to produce an appropriate set of peptide fragments, then peptide fragments containing the linear epitope were selected and separated from the pool of peptide fragments by immunoprecipitation with the monoclonal antibody. The agarose beads were collected carefully after the reaction. Unbound peptides would be washed away, while the peptides containing the epitope would remain bound to the immobilized antibody after. the beads were washed several times with appropriate buffer. At last the masses of the bound peptides were identified directly by MALDI-TOF MS. Using Endoproteinase Glu-C Endoproteinase Lys-C and Trypsin in the experiment, the linear epitope of beta(2)-microglobulin was located within peptide fragment 59-69, that is, DWSFYLLYYTE.

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A high performance liquid chroatography-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometric method was developed for analysis and identification of ginsenosides from the decoction of ginseng, ginseng with trogopteroum feces and ginseng with semen raphani. Ten ginsenosides were separated and detected. The content variation of these ginsenosides was researched. The experimental results showed, that ginsenosides were less in compatible decoction than in separate one expect Ro. the stripping of ginsenosides were restrained by semen raphani and during combination of ginseng with trogopteroum feces, the precipitates were produced by ginsenosides.

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A novel fluorescent dye labeled H-shaped block copolymer, (PMMA-Fluor-PS)(2)-PEO-(PS-Fluor-PMMA)(2), is synthesized by the combination of atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) and anionic polymerization (AP). To obtain the designated structure of the copolymer, a macroinitiator, 2,2-dichloro acetyl-PEO-2,2-dichloro acetyl (DCA-PEO-DCA), was prepared from DCAC and poly(ethylene oxide). The copolymer was characterized by H-1 NMR, GPC and fluorescence spectroscopy.