The magma budget of Volcan Arenal, Costa Rica from 1980 to 2004

Using topographic data collected by radar interferometry, stereo-photogrammetry, and field survey we have measured the changing surface of Volcan Arenal in Costa Rica over the period from 1980 to 2004. During this time this young volcano has mainly effused basaltic andesite lava, continuing the activity that began in 1968. Explosive products form only a few percent of the volumetric output. We have calculated digital elevation models for the years 1961, 1988 and 1997 and modified existing models for 2000 and 2004. From these we have estimated the volume of lava effused and coupled this with the data presented by an earlier study for 1968-1980. We find that a dense rock equivalent volume of 551 M m(3) was effused from 1968 to 2004. The dense rock equivalent effusion rate fell from about 2 m(3) s(-1) to about 0.1-0.2 m(3) s(-1) over the same period, with an average rate of about 0.5 m(3) s(-1). Between 1980 and 2004, the average effusion rate was 0.36 m(3) s(-1), a similar rate to that measured between 1974 and 1980. There have been two significant deviations from this long-term rate. The effusion rate increased from 1984 to 1991, at the same time as explosivity increased. After a period of moderate effusion rates in the 1990s, the rate fell to lower levels around 1999. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrification of volcanic plumes

Volcanic lightning, perhaps the most spectacular consequence of the electrification of volcanic plumes, has been implicated in the origin of life on Earth, and may also exist in other planetary atmospheres. Recent years have seen volcanic lightning detection used as part of a portfolio of developing techniques to monitor volcanic eruptions. Remote sensing measurement techniques have been used to monitor volcanic lightning, but surface observations of the atmospheric electric Potential Gradient (PG) and the charge carried on volcanic ash also show that many volcanic plumes, whilst not sufficiently electrified to produce lightning, have detectable electrification exceeding that of their surrounding environment. Electrification has only been observed associated with ash-rich explosive plumes, but there is little evidence that the composition of the ash is critical to its occurrence. Different conceptual theories for charge generation and separation in volcanic plumes have been developed to explain the disparate observations obtained, but the ash fragmentation mechanism appears to be a key parameter. It is unclear which mechanisms or combinations of electrification mechanisms dominate in different circumstances. Electrostatic forces play an important role in modulating the dry fallout of ash from a volcanic plume. Beyond the local electrification of plumes, the higher stratospheric particle concentrations following a large explosive eruption may affect the global atmospheric electrical circuit. It is possible that this might present another, if minor, way by which large volcanic eruptions affect global climate. The direct hazard of volcanic lightning to communities is generally low compared to other aspects of volcanic activity.

The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part I: Dome shape and internal structure

Lava domes comprise core, carapace, and clastic talus components. They can grow endogenously by inflation of a core and/or exogenously with the extrusion of shear bounded lobes and whaleback lobes at the surface. Internal structure is paramount in determining the extent to which lava dome growth evolves stably, or conversely the propensity for collapse. The more core lava that exists within a dome, in both relative and absolute terms, the more explosive energy is available, both for large pyroclastic flows following collapse and in particular for lateral blast events following very rapid removal of lateral support to the dome. Knowledge of the location of the core lava within the dome is also relevant for hazard assessment purposes. A spreading toe, or lobe of core lava, over a talus substrate may be both relatively unstable and likely to accelerate to more violent activity during the early phases of a retrogressive collapse. Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat has been erupting since 1995 and has produced numerous lava domes that have undergone repeated collapse events. We consider one continuous dome growth period, from August 2005 to May 2006 that resulted in a dome collapse event on 20th May 2006. The collapse event lasted 3 h, removing the whole dome plus dome remnants from a previous growth period in an unusually violent and rapid collapse event. We use an axisymmetrical computational Finite Element Method model for the growth and evolution of a lava dome. Our model comprises evolving core, carapace and talus components based on axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth, which permits us to model the interface between talus and core. Despite explicitly only modelling axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth our core–talus model simulates many of the observed growth characteristics of the 2005–2006 SHV lava dome well. Further, it is possible for our simulations to replicate large-scale exogenous characteristics when a considerable volume of talus has accumulated around the lower flanks of the dome. Model results suggest that dome core can override talus within a growing dome, potentially generating a region of significant weakness and a potential locus for collapse initiation.

The rapid rise of supermarkets?

A series of articles, many of them published in this journal, have charted the rapid spread of supermarkets in developing and middle-income countries and forecast its continuation. In this article, the level of supermarket penetration (share of the retail food market) is modelled quantitatively on a cross-section of 42 countries for which data could be obtained, representing all stages of development. GDP per capita, income distribution, urbanisation, female labour force participation and openness to inward foreign investment are all significant explanators. Projections to 2015 suggest significant but not explosive further penetration; increased openness and GDP growth are the most significant factors.

Higher oxides of chlorine: absorption cross-sections of Cl2O6 and Cl2O4, the decomposition of Cl2O6, and the reactions of OClO with O and O-3

The absorption cross-sections of Cl2O6 and Cl2O4 have been obtained using a fast flow reactor with a diode array spectrometer (DAS) detection system. The absorption cross-sections at the wavelengths of maximum absorption (lambda(max)) determined in this study are those of Cl2O6: (1.47 +/- 0.15) x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1), at lambda(max) = 276 nm and T = 298 K; and Cl2O4: (9.0 +/- 2.0) x 10(-19) cm(2) molecule(-1), at lambda(max) = 234 nm and T = 298 K. Errors quoted are two standard deviations together with estimates of the systematic error. The shapes of the absorption spectra were obtained over the wavelength range 200-450 nm for Cl2O6 and 200-350 nm for Cl2O4, and were normalized to the absolute cross-sections obtained at lambda(max) for each oxide, and are presented at 1 nm intervals. These data are discussed in relation to previous measurements. The reaction of O with OCIO has been investigated with the objective of observing transient spectroscopic absorptions. A transient absorption was seen, and the possibility is explored of identifying the species with the elusive sym-ClO3 or ClO4, both of which have been characterized in matrices, but not in the gas-phase. The photolysis of OCIO was also re-examined, with emphasis being placed on the products of reaction. UV absorptions attributable to one of the isomers of the ClO dimer, chloryl chloride (ClClO2) were observed; some Cl2O4 was also found at long photolysis times, when much of the ClClO2 had itself been photolysed. We suggest that reports of Cl2O6 formation in previous studies could be a consequence of a mistaken identification. At low temperatures, the photolysis of OCIO leads to the formation of Cl2O3 as a result of the addition of the ClO primary product to OCIO. ClClO2 also appears to be one product of the reaction between O-3 and OCIO, especially when the reaction occurs under explosive conditions. We studied the kinetics of the non-explosive process using a stopped-flow technique, and suggest a value for the room-temperature rate coefficient of (4.6 +/- 0.9) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (limit quoted is 2sigma random errors). The photochemical and thermal decomposition of Cl2O6 is described in this paper. For photolysis at k = 254 nm, the removal of Cl2O6 is not accompanied by the build up of any other strong absorber. The implications of the results are either that the photolysis of Cl2O6 produces Cl-2 directly, or that the initial photofragments are converted rapidly to Cl-2. In the thermal decomposition of Cl2O6, Cl2O4 was shown to be a product of reaction, although not necessarily the major one. The kinetics of decomposition were investigated using the stopped-flow technique. At relatively high [OCIO] present in the system, the decay kinetics obeyed a first-order law, with a limiting first-order rate coefficient of 0.002 s(-1). (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crumpet structures: experimental and modelling studies

Crumpets are made by heating fermented batter on a hot plate at around 230°C. The characteristic structure dominated by vertical pores develops rapidly: structure has developed throughout around 75% of the product height within 30s, which is far faster than might be expected from transient heat conduction through the batter. Cooking is complete within around 3 min. Image analysis based on results from X-ray tomography shows that the voidage fraction is approximately constant and that there is continual coalescence between the larger pores throughout the product although there is also a steady level of small bubbles trapped within the solidified batter. We report here experimental studies which shed light on some of the mechanisms responsible for this structure, together with some models of key phenomena.Three aspects are discussed here: the role of gas (carbon dioxide and nitrogen) nuclei in initiating structure development; convective heat transfer inside the developing pores; and the kinetics of setting the batter into an elastic solid structure. It is shown conclusively that the small bubbles of carbon dioxide resulting from the fermentation stage play a crucial role as nuclei for pore development: without these nuclei, the result is not a porous structure, but rather a solid, elastic, inedible, gelatinized product. These nuclei are also responsible for the tiny bubbles which are set in the final product. The nuclei form the source of the dominant pore structure which is largely driven by the, initially explosive, release of water vapour from the batter together with the desorption of dissolved carbon dioxide. It is argued that the rapid evaporation, transport and condensation of steam within the growing pores provides an important mechanism, as in a heat pipe, for rapid heat transfer, and models for this process are developed and tested. The setting of the continuous batter phase is essential for final product quality: studies using differential scanning calorimetry and on the kinetics of change in the visco-elastic properties of the batter suggest that this process is driven by the kinetics of gelatinization. Unlike many thermally driven food processes the rates of heating are such that gelatinization kinetics cannot be neglected. The implications of these results for modelling and for the development of novel structures are discussed.

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Distributed acceleration of mobile radio network optimisation algorithms

The past decade has witnessed explosive growth of mobile subscribers and services. With the purpose of providing better-swifter-cheaper services, radio network optimisation plays a crucial role but faces enormous challenges. The concept of Dynamic Network Optimisation (DNO), therefore, has been introduced to optimally and continuously adjust network configurations, in response to changes in network conditions and traffic. However, the realization of DNO has been seriously hindered by the bottleneck of optimisation speed performance. An advanced distributed parallel solution is presented in this paper, as to bridge the gap by accelerating the sophisticated proprietary network optimisation algorithm, while maintaining the optimisation quality and numerical consistency. The ariesoACP product from Arieso Ltd serves as the main platform for acceleration. This solution has been prototyped, implemented and tested. Real-project based results exhibit a high scalability and substantial acceleration at an average speed-up of 2.5, 4.9 and 6.1 on a distributed 5-core, 9-core and 16-core system, respectively. This significantly outperforms other parallel solutions such as multi-threading. Furthermore, augmented optimisation outcome, alongside high correctness and self-consistency, have also been fulfilled. Overall, this is a breakthrough towards the realization of DNO.

Long-term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content

Explosive volcanic eruptions cause episodic negative radiative forcing of the climate system. Using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) subjected to historical forcing since the late nineteenth century, previous authors have shown that each large volcanic eruption is associated with a sudden drop in ocean heat content and sea-level from which the subsequent recovery is slow. Here we show that this effect may be an artefact of experimental design, caused by the AOGCMs not having been spun up to a steady state with volcanic forcing before the historical integrations begin. Because volcanic forcing has a long-term negative average, a cooling tendency is thus imposed on the ocean in the historical simulation. We recommend that an extra experiment be carried out in parallel to the historical simulation, with constant time-mean historical volcanic forcing, in order to correct for this effect and avoid misinterpretation of ocean heat content changes

The automatic layout model in the sequencing of construction activities of multi-objective diaphragm wall unit by using self-learning neural network

Foundation construction process has been an important key point in a successful construction engineering. The frequency of using diaphragm wall construction method among many deep excavation construction methods in Taiwan is the highest in the world. The traditional view of managing diaphragm wall unit in the sequencing of construction activities is to establish each phase of the sequencing of construction activities by heuristics. However, it conflicts final phase of engineering construction with unit construction and effects planning construction time. In order to avoid this kind of situation, we use management of science in the study of diaphragm wall unit construction to formulate multi-objective combinational optimization problem. Because the characteristic (belong to NP-Complete problem) of problem mathematic model is multi-objective and combining explosive, it is advised that using the 2-type Self-Learning Neural Network (SLNN) to solve the N=12, 24, 36 of diaphragm wall unit in the sequencing of construction activities program problem. In order to compare the liability of the results, this study will use random researching method in comparison with the SLNN. It is found that the testing result of SLNN is superior to random researching method in whether solution-quality or Solving-efficiency.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Pyrene-Modified quartz crystal microbalance for the detection of polynitroaromatic compounds

The synthesis of a dithiol-functionalized pyrene derivative is reported, together with studies of interactions between this receptor (and other related pyrenes) and nitroaromatic compounds (NACs), in both solution and in the solid state. Spectroscopic analysis in solution and X-ray crystallographic analysis of cocrystals of pyrene and NACs in the solid state indicate that supramolecular interactions lead to the formation of defined pi-pi stacked complexes. The dithiolfunctionalized pyrene derivative can be used to modify the surface of a gold quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) to create a unique π-electron rich surface, which is able to interact with electron poor aromatic compounds. For example, exposure of the modified QCM surface to the nitroaromatic compound 2,4-dinitrotoluene (DNT) in solution results in a reduction in the resonant frequency of the QCM as a result of supramolecular interactions between the electron-rich pyrenyl surface layer and the electron-poor DNT molecules. These results suggest the potential use of such modified QCM surfaces for the detection of explosive NACs.

Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.