Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

Health system context and implementation of evidence-based practices-development and validation of the Context Assessment for Community Health (COACH) tool for low- and middle-income settings

Background: The gap between what is known and what is practiced results in health service users not benefitting from advances in healthcare, and in unnecessary costs. A supportive context is considered a key element for successful implementation of evidence-based practices (EBP). There were no tools available for the systematic mapping of aspects of organizational context influencing the implementation of EBPs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Thus, this project aimed to develop and psychometrically validate a tool for this purpose. Methods: The development of the Context Assessment for Community Health (COACH) tool was premised on the context dimension in the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services framework, and is a derivative product of the Alberta Context Tool. Its development was undertaken in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Uganda, South Africa and Nicaragua in six phases: (1) defining dimensions and draft tool development, (2) content validity amongst in-country expert panels, (3) content validity amongst international experts, (4) response process validity, (5) translation and (6) evaluation of psychometric properties amongst 690 health workers in the five countries. Results: The tool was validated for use amongst physicians, nurse/midwives and community health workers. The six phases of development resulted in a good fit between the theoretical dimensions of the COACH tool and its psychometric properties. The tool has 49 items measuring eight aspects of context: Resources, Community engagement, Commitment to work, Informal payment, Leadership, Work culture, Monitoring services for action and Sources of knowledge. Conclusions: Aspects of organizational context that were identified as influencing the implementation of EBPs in high-income settings were also found to be relevant in LMICs. However, there were additional aspects of context of relevance in LMICs specifically Resources, Community engagement, Commitment to work and Informal payment. Use of the COACH tool will allow for systematic description of the local healthcare context prior implementing healthcare interventions to allow for tailoring implementation strategies or as part of the evaluation of implementing healthcare interventions and thus allow for deeper insights into the process of implementing EBPs in LMICs.

Development of an open case-based decision-support system for diagnosis in oral pathology

Making diagnoses in oral pathology are often difficult and confusing in dental practice, especially for the lessexperienced dental student. One of the most promising areas in bioinformatics is computer-aided diagnosis, where a computer system is capable of imitating human reasoning ability and provides diagnoses with an accuracy approaching that of expert professionals. This type of system could be an alternative tool for assisting dental students to overcome the difficulties of the oral pathology learning process. This could allow students to define variables and information, important to improving the decision-making performance. However, no current open data management system has been integrated with an artificial intelligence system in a user-friendly environment. Such a system could also be used as an education tool to help students perform diagnoses. The aim of the present study was to develop and test an open case-based decisionsupport system.Methods: An open decision-support system based on Bayes' theorem connected to a relational database was developed using the C++ programming language. The software was tested in the computerisation of a surgical pathology service and in simulating the diagnosis of 43 known cases of oral bone disease. The simulation was performed after the system was initially filled with data from 401 cases of oral bone disease.Results: the system allowed the authors to construct and to manage a pathology database, and to simulate diagnoses using the variables from the database.Conclusion: Combining a relational database and an open decision-support system in the same user-friendly environment proved effective in simulating diagnoses based on information from an updated database.

Interactive system for placement and coordination of overcurrent protective devices

In this paper, an expert and interactive system for developing protection system for overhead and radial distribution feeders is proposed. In this system the protective devices can be allocated through heuristic and an optimized way. In the latter one, the placement problem is modeled as a mixed integer non-linear programming, which is solved by genetic algorithm (GA). Using information stored in a database as well as a knowledge base, the computational system is able to obtain excellent conditions of selectivity and coordination for improving the feeder reliability indices. Tests for assessment of the algorithm efficiency were carried out using a real-life 660-nodes feeder. © 2006 IEEE.

Development of a support vector machine-based navigation system for driving a mobile robot through paths in plantations

The use of mobile robots turns out to be interesting in activities where the action of human specialist is difficult or dangerous. Mobile robots are often used for the exploration in areas of difficult access, such as rescue operations and space missions, to avoid human experts exposition to risky situations. Mobile robots are also used in agriculture for planting tasks as well as for keeping the application of pesticides within minimal amounts to mitigate environmental pollution. In this paper we present the development of a system to control the navigation of an autonomous mobile robot through tracks in plantations. Track images are used to control robot direction by preprocessing them to extract image features. Such features are then submitted to a support vector machine in order to find out the most appropriate route. The overall goal of the project to which this work is connected is to develop a real time robot control system to be embedded into a hardware platform. In this paper we report the software implementation of a support vector machine, which so far presented around 93% accuracy in predicting the appropriate route. © 2012 IEEE.

Report on the Expert Group Meeting on the Comprehensive and Integral International Convention to Promote and Protect the Rights and Dignity of Persons with Disabilities

The main objective of the meeting was to present recommendations to the Ad Hoc Committee established by the United Nations to consider proposals and elements for inclusion in an international convention aimed at protecting and promoting the rights and dignity of persons with disabilities. Attending the meeting were key stakeholders from the human rights and disabled community, public and private sector, the academic community, and members of the United Nations system.

Report of the AD HOC Expert Group meeting on social exclusion, poverty, inequality, crime and violence: Towardsa research agenda for informed public policy for Caribbean SIDS

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean convened an expert group meeting on Social Exclusion, Poverty, Inequality – Crime and Violence: Towards a Research Agenda for informed Public Policy for Caribbean SIDS on Friday 4 April 2008, at its conference room in Port of Spain. The meeting was attended by 14 experts drawn from, the University of the West Indies (UWI), St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago; and Mona Campus, Jamaica; the St. Georges University, Grenada; the Trinidad and Tobago Crime Commission and the Ministry of Social Development, Government of Trinidad and Tobago and representative of Civil Society from Guyana. Experts from the United Nations System included representatives from the United Nations Fund for Women (UNIFEM), Barbados; the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Port of Spain and UNDP Barbados/SRO and the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). The list of participants appears as an annex to this report. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum in which differing theories and methodologies useful to addressing the issues of social exclusion, poverty, inequality, crime and violence could be explored. It was expected that at the end of the meeting there would be consensus on areas of research which could be pursued over a two to four-year period by the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean and its partners, which would lead to informed public policy in support of the reduction of the growing violence in Caribbean society.

A support system that delineates location-choice sets for firms seeking office space

Factors influencing the location decisions of offices include traffic, accessibility, employment conditions, economic prospects and land-use policies. Hence tools for supporting real-estate managers and urban planners in such multidimensional decisions may be useful. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tool to support firms who seek office accommodation within a given regional or national study area. The tool relies on a matching approach, in which a firm's characteristics (demand) on the one hand, and environmental conditions and available office spaces (supply) on the other, are analyzed separately in a first step, after which a match is sought. That is, a suitability score is obtained for every firm and for every available office space by applying some value judgments (satisfaction, utility etc.). The latter are powered by a focus on location aspects and expert knowledge about the location decisions of firms/organizations with respect to office accommodation as acquired from a group of real-estate advisers; it is stored in decision tables, and they constitute the core of the model. Apart from the delineation of choice sets for any firm seeking a location, the tool supports two additional types of queries. Firstly, it supports the more generic problem of optimally allocating firms to a set of vacant locations. Secondly, the tool allows users to find firms which meet the characteristics of any given location. Moreover, as a GIS-based tool, its results can be visualized using GIS features which, in turn, facilitate several types of analyses.

The neonatal immune system: immunomodulation of infections in early life

The innate and adaptive immune responses in neonates are usually functionally impaired when compared with their adult counterparts. The qualitative and quantitative differences in the neonatal immune response put them at risk for the development of bacterial and viral infections, resulting in increased mortality. Newborns often exhibit decreased production of Th1-polarizing cytokines and are biased toward Th2-type responses. Studies aimed at understanding the plasticity of the immune response in the neonatal and early infant periods or that seek to improve neonatal innate immune function with adjuvants or special formulations are crucial for preventing the infectious disease burden in this susceptible group. Considerable studies focused on identifying potential immunomodulatory therapies have been performed in murine models. This article highlights the strategies used in the emerging field of immunomodulation in bacterial and viral pathogens, focusing on preclinical studies carried out in animal models with particular emphasis on neonatal-specific immune deficits.

System Architecture of a Mixed Reality Framework

In this paper the software architecture of a framework which simplifies the development of applications in the area of Virtual and Augmented Reality is presented. It is based on VRML/X3D to enable rendering of audio-visual information. We extended our VRML rendering system by a device management system that is based on the concept of a data-flow graph. The aim of the system is to create Mixed Reality (MR) applications simply by plugging together small prefabricated software components, instead of compiling monolithic C++ applications. The flexibility and the advantages of the presented framework are explained on the basis of an exemplary implementation of a classic Augmented Realityapplication and its extension to a collaborative remote expert scenario.

The New Swiss Patent Ligitation System

Switzerland is about to implement a completely new patent litigation system, following the establishment of a new specialized federal patent trial court and the replacement of twenty-six cantonal codes of civil procedure with a single uniform federal code of civil procedure. This article provides an overview of the general structure and the most important features of the new patent litigation system that may be of interest to international patent litigants and litigators.

Patient classification system: An integrated method for measuring nursing intensity and optimizing resource allocation

A patient classification system was developed integrating a patient acuity instrument with a computerized nursing distribution method based on a linear programming model. The system was designed for real-time measurement of patient acuity (workload) and allocation of nursing personnel to optimize the utilization of resources.^ The acuity instrument was a prototype tool with eight categories of patients defined by patient severity and nursing intensity parameters. From this tool, the demand for nursing care was defined in patient points with one point equal to one hour of RN time. Validity and reliability of the instrument was determined as follows: (1) Content validity by a panel of expert nurses; (2) predictive validity through a paired t-test analysis of preshift and postshift categorization of patients; (3) initial reliability by a one month pilot of the instrument in a practice setting; and (4) interrater reliability by the Kappa statistic.^ The nursing distribution system was a linear programming model using a branch and bound technique for obtaining integer solutions. The objective function was to minimize the total number of nursing personnel used by optimally assigning the staff to meet the acuity needs of the units. A penalty weight was used as a coefficient of the objective function variables to define priorities for allocation of staff.^ The demand constraints were requirements to meet the total acuity points needed for each unit and to have a minimum number of RNs on each unit. Supply constraints were: (1) total availability of each type of staff and the value of that staff member (value was determined relative to that type of staff's ability to perform the job function of an RN (i.e., value for eight hours RN = 8 points, LVN = 6 points); (2) number of personnel available for floating between units.^ The capability of the model to assign staff quantitatively and qualitatively equal to the manual method was established by a thirty day comparison. Sensitivity testing demonstrated appropriate adjustment of the optimal solution to changes in penalty coefficients in the objective function and to acuity totals in the demand constraints.^ Further investigation of the model documented: correct adjustment of assignments in response to staff value changes; and cost minimization by an addition of a dollar coefficient to the objective function. ^

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Unsupervised system to classify SO2 pollutant concentrations in Salamanca, Mexico

Salamanca is cataloged as one of the most polluted cities in Mexico. In order to observe the behavior and clarify the influence of wind parameters on the Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) concentrations a Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) Neural Network have been implemented at three monitoring locations for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2006. The maximum and minimum daily values of SO2 concentrations measured during the year of 2006 were correlated with the wind parameters of the same period. The main advantages of the SOM Neural Network is that it allows to integrate data from different sensors and provide readily interpretation results. Especially, it is powerful mapping and classification tool, which others information in an easier way and facilitates the task of establishing an order of priority between the distinguished groups of concentrations depending on their need for further research or remediation actions in subsequent management steps. For each monitoring location, SOM classifications were evaluated with respect to pollution levels established by Health Authorities. The classification system can help to establish a better air quality monitoring methodology that is essential for assessing the effectiveness of imposed pollution controls, strategies, and facilitate the pollutants reduction.

Intelligent automatic overtaking system using vision for vehicle detection

There is clear evidence that investment in intelligent transportation system technologies brings major social and economic benefits. Technological advances in the area of automatic systems in particular are becoming vital for the reduction of road deaths. We here describe our approach to automation of one the riskiest autonomous manœuvres involving vehicles – overtaking. The approach is based on a stereo vision system responsible for detecting any preceding vehicle and triggering the autonomous overtaking manœuvre. To this end, a fuzzy-logic based controller was developed to emulate how humans overtake. Its input is information from the vision system and from a positioning-based system consisting of a differential global positioning system (DGPS) and an inertial measurement unit (IMU). Its output is the generation of action on the vehicle’s actuators, i.e., the steering wheel and throttle and brake pedals. The system has been incorporated into a commercial Citroën car and tested on the private driving circuit at the facilities of our research center, CAR, with different preceding vehicles – a motorbike, car, and truck – with encouraging results.