Extracting Causal Graphs from an Open Provenance Data Model

The open provenance architecture (OPA) approach to the challenge was distinct in several regards. In particular, it is based on an open, well-defined data model and architecture, allowing different components of the challenge workflow to independently record documentation, and for the workflow to be executed in any environment. Another noticeable feature is that we distinguish between the data recorded about what has occurred, emphprocess documentation, and the emphprovenance of a data item, which is all that caused the data item to be as it is and is obtained as the result of a query over process documentation. This distinction allows us to tailor the system to separately best address the requirements of recording and querying documentation. Other notable features include the explicit recording of causal relationships between both events and data items, an interaction-based world model, intensional definition of data items in queries rather than relying on explicit naming mechanisms, and emphstyling of documentation to support non-functional application requirements such as reducing storage costs or ensuring privacy of data. In this paper we describe how each of these features aid us in answering the challenge provenance queries.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

The Generation Gap: What Generation Gap? : Management, Technology, Training, and Evolving Skills

Contrary to divisive labels to describe generations, members of different age groups have much to teach each other: Younger workers bring fresh perspectives to old issues, while older workers' valuable organizational history help inform current contexts. All age groups in the workplace benefit in learning from each other's perspectives.

Web 2.0, dilemmas 1.0: essay on an evolving market

Today the Internet is entwined into our everyday society. From the beginning days in 1980 to today, the Internet has been evolving. The creator of the World Wide Web, Tim Berners-Lee, envisioned that the Internet would be a system with everything connected to everything. The web today is changing with new applications arriving from outside the previous channels of the megalithic software companies. Thousands of individual developers are creating micro-applications to enhance the earlier framework of the web. This revolution has been coined "Web 2.0". Many observers today are skeptical that Web 2.0 is really a revolution at all, but maybe is just a continuation of Berners-Lee's original concept. This paper examines, based on a critical literature review, the discussions taking place regarding Web 2.0.

An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.

Signal-flow graphs: Direct method of reduction and MATLAB implementation

Block diagrams and signal-flow graphs are used to represent and to obtain the transfer function of interconnected systems. The reduction of signal-flow graphs is considered simpler than the reduction of block diagrams for systems with complex interrelationships. Signal-flow graphs reduction can be made without graphic manipulations of diagrams, and it is attractive for a computational implementation. In this paper the authors propose a computational method for direct reduction of signal-flow graphs. This method uses results presented in this paper about the calculation of literal determinants without symbolic mathematics tools. The Cramer's rule is applied for the solution of a set of linear equations, A program in MATLAB language for reduction of signal-flow graphs with the proposed method is presented.

Evolving Future Internet clean-slate Entity Title Architecture with quality-oriented control-plane extensions

A Internet atual vem sofrendo vários problemas em termos de escalabilidade, desempenho, mobilidade, etc., devido ao vertiginoso incremento no número de usuários e o surgimento de novos serviços com novas demandas, propiciando assim o nascimento da Internet do Futuro. Novas propostas sobre redes orientadas a conteúdo, como a arquitetura Entidade Titulo (ETArch), proveem novos serviços para este tipo de cenários, implementados sobre o paradigma de redes definidas por software. Contudo, o modelo de transporte do ETArch é equivalente ao modelo best-effort da Internet atual, e vem limitando a confiabilidade das suas comunicações. Neste trabalho, ETArch é redesenhado seguindo o paradigma do sobreaprovisionamento de recursos para conseguir uma alocação de recursos avançada integrada com OpenFlow. Como resultado, o framework SMART (Suporte de Sessões Móveis com Alta Demanda de Recursos de Transporte), permite que a rede defina semanticamente os requisitos qualitativos das sessões para assim gerenciar o controle de Qualidade de Serviço visando manter a melhor Qualidade de Experiência possível. A avaliação do planos de dados e de controle teve lugar na plataforma de testes na ilha do projeto OFELIA, mostrando o suporte de aplicações móveis multimídia com alta demanda de recursos de transporte com QoS e QoE garantidos através de um esquema de sinalização restrito em comparação com o ETArch legado

Variance dispersion graphs for comparing blocked response surface designs

In this paper, we extend the use of the variance dispersion graph (VDG) to experiments in which the response surface (RS) design must be blocked. Through several examples we evaluate the prediction performances of RS designs in non-orthogonal block designs compared with the equivalent unblocked designs and orthogonally blocked designs. These examples illustrate that good prediction performance of designs in small blocks can be expected in practice. Most importantly, we show that the allocation of the treatment set to blocks can seriously affect the prediction properties of designs; thus, much care is needed in performing this allocation.