Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Autopoiesis vs. social autopoiesis: critical evaluation and implications for understanding firms as autopoietic social systems

The main objective of this study is to revisit the fundamental postulations of autopoietic self-production wrapped within the autopoietic six-point key and to investigate whether or not firms as specific social systems can be treated as autopoietic unities. In order to do so firms have to be defined as simple and composite unities whereupon their boundaries have to be clearly identifiable. The test of social autopoiesis reveals that firms can be viewed as autopoietic social systems that exist in the communicative space with employees' firm-specific communicative sub-domains as their components. Furthermore, it is argued that the social reification of autopoiesis (autokoinopoiesis) in firms is quintessentially interconnected with physical autopoiesis of their employees (autophysiopoiesis). Discontiguous focus on productivity as firms' obvious physical implication may thus be upgraded by a very social nature of ideactivity, firms' only real survival force.

Development of novel brush-type chiral stationary phases based on terpenoid selectors: HPLC evaluation and theoretical investigation of enantioselective binding interactions

The terpenoid chiral selectors dehydroabietic acid, 12,14-dinitrodehydroabietic acid and friedelin have been covalently linked to silica gel yielding three chiral stationary phases CSP 1, CSP 2 and CSP 3, respectively. The enantiodiscriminating capability of each one of these phases was evaluated by HPLC with four families of chiral aromatic compounds composed of alcohols, amines, phenylalanine and tryptophan amino acid derivatives and beta-lactams. The CSP 3 phase, containing a selector with a large friedelane backbone is particularly suitable for resolving free alcohols and their derivatives bearing fluorine substituents, while CSP 2 with a dehydroabietic architecture is the only phase that efficiently discriminates 1, 1'-binaphthol atropisomers. CSP 3 also gives efficient resolution of the free amines. All three phases resolve well the racemates of N-trifluoracetyl and N-3,5-dinitrobenzoyl phenylalanine amino acid ester derivatives. Good enantioseparation of beta-lactams and N-benzoyl tryptophan amino acid derivatives was achieved on CSP 1. In order to understand the structural factors that govern the chiral molecular recognition ability of these phases, molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in the gas phase with binary diastereomeric complexes formed by the selectors of CSP 1 and CSP 2 and several amino acid derivatives. Decomposition of molecular mechanics energies shows that van der Waals interactions dominate the formation of the diastereomeric transient complexes while the electrostatic binding interactions are primarily responsible for the enantioselective binding of the (R)- and (S)-analytes. Analysis of the hydrogen bonds shows that electrostatic interactions are mainly associated with the formation of N-(HO)-O-...=C enantio selective hydrogen bonds between the amide binding sites from the selectors and the carbonyl groups of the analytes. The role of mobile phase polarity, a mixture of n-hexane and propan-2-ol in different ratios, was also evaluated through molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interventions to promote healthy eating habits: evaluation and recommendations

Although in several EU Member States many public interventions have been running for the prevention and/or management of obesity and other nutrition-related health conditions, few have yet been formally evaluated. The multidisciplinary team of the EATWELL project will gather benchmark data on healthy eating interventions in EU Member States and review existing information on the effectiveness of interventions using a three-stage procedure (i) Assessment of the intervention's impact on consumer attitudes, consumer behaviour and diets; (ii) The impact of the change in diets on obesity and health and (iii) The value attached by society to these changes, measured in life years gained, cost savings and quality-adjusted life years. Where evaluations have been inadequate, EATWELL will gather secondary data and analyse them with a multidisciplinary approach incorporating models from the psychology and economics disciplines. Particular attention will be paid to lessons that can be learned from private sector that are transferable to the healthy eating campaigns in the public sector. Through consumer surveys and workshops with other stakeholders, EATWELL will assess the acceptability of the range of potential interventions. Armed with scientific quantitative evaluations of policy interventions and their acceptability to stakeholders, EATWELL expects to recommend more appropriate interventions for Member States and the EU, providing a one-stop guide to methods and measures in interventions evaluation, and outline data collection priorities for the future.