A below-ground herbivore shapes root defensive chemistry in natural plant populations

Plants display extensive intraspecific variation in secondary metabolites. However, the selective forces shaping this diversity remain often unknown, especially below ground. Using Taraxacum officinale and its major native insect root herbivore Melolontha melolontha, we tested whether below-ground herbivores drive intraspecific variation in root secondary metabolites. We found that high M. melolontha infestation levels over recent decades are associated with high concentrations of major root latex secondary metabolites across 21 central European T. officinale field populations. By cultivating offspring of these populations, we show that both heritable variation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to the observed differences. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the production of the sesquiterpene lactone taraxinic acid β-d-glucopyranosyl ester (TA-G) is costly in the absence, but beneficial in the presence of M. melolontha, resulting in divergent selection of TA-G. Our results highlight the role of soil-dwelling insects for the evolution of plant defences in nature.

Evaluating the equity effects of road-pricing in the European urban context - The Madrid Metropolitan Area

The paper identifies the potential spatial and social impacts of a proposed road-pricing scheme for different social groups in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (MMA). We appraise the accessibility of different districts within the MMA in terms of the actual and perceived cost of using the road infrastructure ‘before’ and ‘after’ implementation of the scheme. The appraisal framework was developed using quantitative survey data and qualitative focus group discussions with residents. We then simulated user behaviours (mode and route choice) based on the empirical evidence from a travel demand model for the MMA. The results from our simulation model demonstrated that implementation of the toll on the orbital metropolitan motorways (M40, M30, for example) decreases accessibility mostly in the districts where there are no viable public transport alternatives. Our specific study finding is that the economic burden of the road-pricing scheme particularly affects unskilled and lower income individuals living in the south of the MMA. The focus groups confirmed that low income drivers in the south part of the MMA would reduce their use of tolled roads and have to find new arrangements for these trips: i.e. switch to public transport, spend double the time travelling or stay at home. More generally, our research finds that European transport planners are still a long way from recognising the social equity implications of their policy decisions and that more thorough social appraisals are needed to avoid the social exclusion of low income populations when road tolling is proposed.

Low major histocompatibility complex class II diversity in European and North American moose.

Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes encode cell surface proteins whose function is to bind and present intracellularly processed peptides to T lymphocytes of the immune system. Extensive MHC diversity has been documented in many species and is maintained by some form of balancing selection. We report here that both European and North American populations of moose (Alces alces) exhibit very low levels of genetic diversity at an expressed MHC class II DRB locus. The observed polymorphism was restricted to six amino acid substitutions, all in the peptide binding site, and four of these were shared between continents. The data imply that the moose have lost MHC diversity in a population bottleneck, prior to the divergence of the Old and New World subspecies. Sequence analysis of mtDNA showed that the two subspecies diverged at least 100,000 years ago. Thus, viable moose populations with very restricted MHC diversity have been maintained for a long period of time. Both positive selection for polymorphism and intraexonic recombination have contributed to the generation of MHC diversity after the putative bottleneck.

Genetic diversity and susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 protein in Brazilian populations of Helicoverpa armigera and Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) was officially reported in Brazil in 2013. This species is closely related to Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) and has caused significant crop damage in Brazil. The use of genetically modified crops expressing insecticidal protein from Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) has been one of the control tactics for managing these pests. Genetically modified maize expressing Vip3Aa20 was approved to commercial use in Brazil in 2009. Understanding the genetic diversity and the susceptibility to B. thuringiensis proteins in H. armigera and H. zea populations in Brazil are crucial for establishing Insect Resistance Management (IRM) programs in Brazil. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: (a) to infer demographic parameters and genetic structure of H. armigera and H. zea Brazil; (b) to assess the intra and interspecific gene flow and genetic diversity of H. armigera and H. zea; and (c) to evaluate the susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 protein in H. armigera and H. zea populations of Brazil. A phylogeographic analysis of field H. armigera and H. zea populations was performed using a partial sequence data from the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene. H. armigera individuals were most prevalent on dicotyledonous hosts and H. zea individuals were most prevalent on maize crops. Both species showed signs of demographic expansion and no genetic structure. High genetic diversity and wide distribution were observed for H. armigera. A joint analysis indicated the presence of Chinese, Indian, and European lineages within the Brazilian populations of H. armigera. In the cross-species amplification study, seven microsatellite loci were amplified; and showed a potential hybrid offspring in natural conditions. Interespecific analyses using the same microsatellite loci with Brazilian H. armigera and H. zea in compare to the USA H. zea were also conducted. When analyses were performed within each species, 10 microsatellites were used for H. armigera, and eight for H. zea. We detected high intraspecific gene flow in populations of H. armigera and H. zea from Brazil and H. zea from the USA. Genetic diversity was similar for both species. However, H. armigera was more similar to H. zea from Brazil than H. zea from the USA and some putative hybrid individuals were found in Brazilian populations.Tthere was low gene flow between Brazilian and USA H. zea. The baseline susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 resulted in low interpopulation variation for H. zea (3-fold) and for H. armigera (5-fold), based on LC50. H. armigera was more tolerant to Vip3Aa20 than H. zea (≈ 40 to 75-fold, based on CL50). The diagnostic concentration for susceptibility monitoring, based on CL99, was fairly high (6,400 ng Vip3Aa20/cm2) for H. zea and not validated for H. armigera due to the high amount of protein needed for bioassays. Implementing IRM strategies to Vip3Aa20 in H. armigera and H. zea will be of a great challenge in Brazil, mainly due to the low susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 and high genetic diversity and gene flow in both species, besides a potential of hybrid individuals between H. armigera and H. zea under field conditions.

Trends and Disparities in Mortality Among Spanish-Born and Foreign-Born Populations Residing in Spain, 1999–2008

Spain’s immigrant population has increased 380 % in the last decade, accounting for 13.1 % of the total population. This fact has led her to become during 2009 the eighth recipient country of international immigrants in the world. The aim of this article is to describe the evolution of mortality and the main causes of death among the Spanish-born and foreign-born populations residing in Spain between 1999 and 2008. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASRs), average age and comparative mortality ratios among foreign-born and Spanish-born populations residing in Spain were computed for every year and sub-period by sex, cause of death and place of birth as well as by the ASR percentage change. During 1999–2008 the ASR showed a progressive decrease in the risk of death in the Spanish-born population (−17.8 % for men and −16.6 % for women) as well as in the foreign-born one (−45.9 % for men and −35.7 % for women). ASR also showed a progressive decrease for practically all the causes of death, in both populations. It has been observed that the risk of death due to neoplasms and respiratory diseases among immigrants is lower than that of their Spanish-born counterparts, but risk due to external causes is higher. Places of birth with the greater decreases are Northern Europe, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Southern Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean. The research shows the differences in the reduction of death risk between Spanish-born and immigrant inhabitants between 1999 and 2008. These results could contribute to the ability of central and local governments to create effective health policy. Further research is necessary to examine changes in mortality trends among immigrant populations as a consequence of the economic crisis and the reforms in the Spanish health system. Spanish data sources should incorporate into their records information that enables them to find out the immigrant duration of permanence and the possible impact of this on mortality indicators.

The grand divergence: global and European current account surpluses. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/08, 13 August 2015

Global current account imbalances widened before the 2007/2008 crisis and have narrowed since. While the post-crisis adjustment of European current account deficits was in line with global developments (though more forceful), European current account surpluses defied global trends and increased. We use panel econometric models to analyse the determinants of medium-term current account balances. Our results confirm that higher fiscal balances, higher GDP per capita, more rapidly aging populations, larger net foreign assets, larger oil rents and better legal systems increase the medium-term current account balance, while a larger growth differential and a higher old-age dependency ratio reduce it. European current account surpluses became excessive during the past twelve years according to our estimates, while they were in line with model predictions in the preceding three decades. Generally, the gap between the actual current account and its fitted value in the model has a strong predictive power for future current account changes. Excess deficits adjust more forcefully than excess surpluses. However, in the 2004-07 period, excess imbalances were amplified, which was followed by a forceful correction in 2008-15, with the exception of European surpluses.

Az európai vállalkozó karaktere (The characters of the European entrepreneur and the European manager)

Miben különböznek motivációjukat, értékeit, habitusukat tekintve a vállalkozók, illetve a menedzserek a társadalom többi tagjától és egymástól? Egy 29 európai országra kiterjedő reprezentatív lakossági kérdőíves felmérés (European Social Survey) alapján keresik a szerzők a választ e kérdésre. A Schwartz-értéktesztet használják, amelynek segítségével meghatározhatók az általános célok, elvek, amelyek követését egy személy fontosnak tartja az életében. Így felrajzolható a személy karaktere. Hozzájárulásuk az irodalomhoz kettős. Bár készültek európai szinten elemzések a vállalkozók által vallott sajátos értékekről, a Schwartz-teszt átfogóbb, árnyaltabb és megbízhatóbb elemzést tesz lehetővé. Továbbá, az említett elemzések csak az önfoglalkoztatókat vizsgálták, amely kategória magában foglalja ugyan a vállalkozókat, ám tágabb annál. Az alkalmazott menedzserekről pedig tudomásuk szerint egyáltalán nem készült hasonló elemzés. / === / What distinguishes entrepreneurs and managers from the rest of society and from each other in terms of motivation and values? The authors attempt to answer these questions by analysing data from the European Social Survey covering the populations of 29 countries. They use the Schwartz value-test to identify the general goals and principles people choose to follow in their lives. The test enables them to paint the typical personal characters of entrepreneurs and managers. Their contribution to the literature is threefold. First, although the values held by European entrepreneurs have been investigated before, the Schwartz test provides for a more comprehensive and nuanced analysis. Second, prior statistical analyses have focussed on self-employed, which is a much broader category than entrepreneurs. Third, the distinguishing values of employed managers have not been analysed so far in a similar way.

The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.

“Living on the edge” : the role of field margins for common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations in recently colonised Mediterranean farmland

Acknowledgments RRP was supported by a PhD-studentship from the University of Valladolid (co-funded by Banco Santander, RR 30/04/2014). Financial support was provided by ECOCYCLES (BIODIVERSA 2008, Era-net European project, EUI2008-03658 and NERC NE/G002045/1 to XL) and ECOVOLE projects (CGL2012-35348; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain). The article also contributes to project ECOTULA (CGL2015-66962-C2-1-R). We held all the necessary licenses and permits for conducting this work (JJLL, FM and RRP held animal experimentation permits of level B for Spain, and a capture permit was provided by the Consejería de Fomento y Medio Ambiente, Junta de Castilla y León (Expte: EP/CYL/665/2014)). We thank two anonymous reviewers for providing and constructive comments to improve the manuscript.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

(Table 1) Radiocarbon ages of samples taken from five sites in north-eastern European Russia

Aim: Concepts about patterns and rates of post-glacial tree population migration are changing as a result of the increasing amount of palaeobotanical information being provided by macroscopic plant remains. Here we combine macrofossil, pollen and stomata records from five sites in north-eastern European Russia and summarize the results for the late-glacial-early Holocene transition. The late-glacial-early Holocene transition encompasses the first indications of trees (tree-type Betula, Picea abies, Abies sibirica and Larix sibirica) and subsequent forest development. Considerable time-lags between the first macrobotanical and/or stomata finds of spruce (Picea abies) and the establishment of a closed forest are reconsidered. Location: Pechora basin, north-eastern European Russia. Methods: We used plant macrofossil, stomata, pollen and radiocarbon analyses to reconstruct late-glacial and early Holocene tree establishment and forest development. The data were derived from lake sediment and peat archives. Results: Palaeobotanical data reveal an early Holocene presence (11,500-10,000 cal. yr bp) of arboreal taxa at all five sites. One site presently located in the northernmost taiga zone, shows the presence of spruce and reproducing tree birch during the late-glacial. Given the current view of post-glacial population dynamics and migration rates, it seems likely that the source area of these early tree populations in north-eastern European Russia was not located in southern Europe but that these populations had local origins. Results thus support the emerging view that the first post-glacial population expansions in non-glaciated regions at high latitudes do not reflect migration from the south but were a result of an increase in the size and density of small persisting outlying tree populations. Main conclusions: Results suggest that the area east of the margin of the Scandinavian ice sheet to the Ural Mountains had isolated patches of trees during the late-glacial and early Holocene and that these small populations acted as initial nuclei for population expansion and forest development in the early Holocene.

Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-West European continental shelf

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish ( Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.

Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-West European continental shelf

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish ( Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.

Taxonomic status and origin of the shrews (soricidae) from the canary islands inferred from a mtdna comparison with the european crocidura species

[EN] European island shrews are either relicts of the endemic Pleistocene fauna, e.g., Crocidura zimmermanni, or were introduced from continental source populations. In order to clarify the taxonomic status and the origin of the two shrew species from the Canary Islands, a 981 bp fragment of cytochrome b gene was investigated in all European Crocidura species and compared with the Canary shrew (Crocidura canariensis) and the Osorio shrew (Crocidura osorio). The first shares its karyotype with the Sicilian shrew Crocidura sicula (2N = 36), the second with the Greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula (2N = 42), suggesting possible sister species relationships.