Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Estimation of soil nitrate in the spring as a basis for adjustment of nitrogen fertiliser rates

Selostus: Maassa olevan nitraattitypen arviointi simulointimallin avulla

Does the physical disector method provide an accurate estimation of sensory neuron number in rat dorsal root ganglia?

The physical disector is a method of choice for estimating unbiased neuron numbers; nevertheless, calibration is needed to evaluate each counting method. The validity of this method can be assessed by comparing the estimated cell number with the true number determined by a direct counting method in serial sections. We reconstructed a 1/5 of rat lumbar dorsal root ganglia taken from two experimental conditions. From each ganglion, images of 200 adjacent semi-thin sections were used to reconstruct a volumetric dataset (stack of voxels). On these stacks the number of sensory neurons was estimated and counted respectively by physical disector and direct counting methods. Also, using the coordinates of nuclei from the direct counting, we simulate, by a Matlab program, disector pairs separated by increasing distances in a ganglion model. The comparison between the results of these approaches clearly demonstrates that the physical disector method provides a valid and reliable estimate of the number of sensory neurons only when the distance between the consecutive disector pairs is 60 microm or smaller. In these conditions the size of error between the results of physical disector and direct counting does not exceed 6%. In contrast when the distance between two pairs is larger than 60 microm (70-200 microm) the size of error increases rapidly to 27%. We conclude that the physical dissector method provides a reliable estimate of the number of rat sensory neurons only when the separating distance between the consecutive dissector pairs is no larger than 60 microm.

A detailed urinary excretion time course study of captan and folpet biomarkers in workers for the estimation of dose, main route-of-entry and most appropriate sampling and analysis strategies

Captan and folpet are two fungicides largely used in agriculture, but biomonitoring data are mostly limited to measurements of captan metabolite concentrations in spot urine samples of workers, which complicate interpretation of results in terms of internal dose estimation, daily variations according to tasks performed, and most plausible routes of exposure. This study aimed at performing repeated biological measurements of exposure to captan and folpet in field workers (i) to better assess internal dose along with main routes-of-entry according to tasks and (ii) to establish most appropriate sampling and analysis strategies. The detailed urinary excretion time courses of specific and non-specific biomarkers of exposure to captan and folpet were established in tree farmers (n = 2) and grape growers (n = 3) over a typical workweek (seven consecutive days), including spraying and harvest activities. The impact of the expression of urinary measurements [excretion rate values adjusted or not for creatinine or cumulative amounts over given time periods (8, 12, and 24 h)] was evaluated. Absorbed doses and main routes-of-entry were then estimated from the 24-h cumulative urinary amounts through the use of a kinetic model. The time courses showed that exposure levels were higher during spraying than harvest activities. Model simulations also suggest a limited absorption in the studied workers and an exposure mostly through the dermal route. It further pointed out the advantage of expressing biomarker values in terms of body weight-adjusted amounts in repeated 24-h urine collections as compared to concentrations or excretion rates in spot samples, without the necessity for creatinine corrections.

Estimation of the noisy component of anatomical backgrounds.

The knowledge of the relationship that links radiation dose and image quality is a prerequisite to any optimization of medical diagnostic radiology. Image quality depends, on the one hand, on the physical parameters such as contrast, resolution, and noise, and on the other hand, on characteristics of the observer that assesses the image. While the role of contrast and resolution is precisely defined and recognized, the influence of image noise is not yet fully understood. Its measurement is often based on imaging uniform test objects, even though real images contain anatomical backgrounds whose statistical nature is much different from test objects used to assess system noise. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the importance of variations in background anatomy by quantifying its effect on a series of detection tasks. Several types of mammographic backgrounds and signals were examined by psychophysical experiments in a two-alternative forced-choice detection task. According to hypotheses concerning the strategy used by the human observers, their signal to noise ratio was determined. This variable was also computed for a mathematical model based on the statistical decision theory. By comparing theoretical model and experimental results, the way that anatomical structure is perceived has been analyzed. Experiments showed that the observer's behavior was highly dependent upon both system noise and the anatomical background. The anatomy partly acts as a signal recognizable as such and partly as a pure noise that disturbs the detection process. This dual nature of the anatomy is quantified. It is shown that its effect varies according to its amplitude and the profile of the object being detected. The importance of the noisy part of the anatomy is, in some situations, much greater than the system noise. Hence, reducing the system noise by increasing the dose will not improve task performance. This observation indicates that the tradeoff between dose and image quality might be optimized by accepting a higher system noise. This could lead to a better resolution, more contrast, or less dose.

Comparison of methods for estimation of needle losses in Scots pine following defoliation by Bupalus piniaria

Abstract

Visibility and Speed Estimation of Iowa State Highway Commission Snowplows, HR-174, 1975

Many accidents involving Iowa snowplows have happened in recent years. This study investigated the influence of time of day, sex of subject, type of snowplow sign and snowplow speed on the criteria of oncoming driver reaction time and his estimate of snowplow speed. Film strips were made of a car passing a snow-Plow under various experimental conditions. These experimental movie strips were viewed in the laboratory by college student drivers who were asked to indicate their reaction time to slow down and to estimate the speed of the snowplow being passed. The generally best sign condition for the snowplow was to have a striped rear sign and a speed-proportional flashing light in addition to the standard rotating beacon on top of the truck. Several recommendations were made.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet

Lutetium zoning in garnet within eclogites from the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone, Western Alps, reveal sharp, exponentially decreasing central peaks. They can be used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion in garnets. A prograde garnet growth temperature interval of 450-600 A degrees C has been estimated based on pseudosection calculations and garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry. The maximum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of D-0= 5.7*10(-6) m(2)/s, taking an estimated activation energy of 270 kJ/mol based on diffusion experiments for other rare earth elements in garnet. This corresponds to a maximum diffusion rate of D (600 A degrees C) = 4.0*10(-22) m(2)/s. The diffusion estimate of Lu can be used to estimate the minimum closure temperature, T-c, for Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf age data that have been obtained in eclogites of the Western Alps, postulating, based on a literature review, that D (Hf) < D (Nd) < D (Sm) a parts per thousand currency sign D (Lu). T-c calculations, using the Dodson equation, yielded minimum closure temperatures of about 630 A degrees C, assuming a rapid initial exhumation rate of 50A degrees/m.y., and an average crystal size of garnets (r = 1 mm). This suggests that Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf isochron age differences in eclogites from the Western Alps, where peak temperatures did rarely exceed 600 A degrees C must be interpreted in terms of prograde metamorphism.

Estimation of forest canopy cover : a comparison of field measurement techniques

Abstract