Effect of addition of maltodextrin on drying kinetics and stickiness of sugar and acid-rich foods during convective drying: experiments and modelling

The effect of addition of maltodextrin on drying kinetics of drops containing fructose, glucose, sucrose and citric acid individually and in mixtures was studied experimentally using single drop drying experiments and numerically by solving appropriate mass and heat transfer equations. The numerical predictions agreed with the experimental moisture and temperature histories within 5-6% average relative (absolute) errors and average differences of +/- 1degreesC, respectively. The stickiness of these drops was determined using the glass transition temperature (T-g) of the drops' surface layer as an indicator. The experimental stickiness histories followed the model predictions with reasonable accuracy. A safe drying (non-sticky) regime in a spray drying environment has been proposed, and used to estimate the optimum amount of addition of maltodextrin for successful spray drying of 120 micron diameter droplets of fruit juices. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Factors predictive of intravenous fluid administration errors in Australian surgical care wards

Background: Intravenous (IV) fluid administration is an integral component of clinical care. Errors in administration can cause detrimental patient outcomes and increase healthcare costs, although little is known about medication administration errors associated with continuous IV infusions. Objectives: ( 1) To ascertain the prevalence of medication administration errors for continuous IV infusions and identify the variables that caused them. ( 2) To quantify the probability of errors by fitting a logistic regression model to the data. Methods: A prospective study was conducted on three surgical wards at a teaching hospital in Australia. All study participants received continuous infusions of IV fluids. Parenteral nutrition and non-electrolyte containing intermittent drug infusions ( such as antibiotics) were excluded. Medication administration errors and contributing variables were documented using a direct observational approach. Results: Six hundred and eighty seven observations were made, with 124 (18.0%) having at least one medication administration error. The most common error observed was wrong administration rate. The median deviation from the prescribed rate was 247 ml/h (interquartile range 275 to + 33.8 ml/ h). Errors were more likely to occur if an IV infusion control device was not used and as the duration of the infusion increased. Conclusions: Administration errors involving continuous IV infusions occur frequently. They could be reduced by more common use of IV infusion control devices and regular checking of administration rates.

Artificial pumping errors in the Kool-Parker scaling model of soil moisture hysteresis

Hysteresis models that eliminate the artificial pumping errors associated with the Kool-Parker (KP) soil moisture hysteresis model, such as the Parker-Lenhard (PL) method, can be computationally demanding in unsaturated transport models since they need to retain the wetting-drying history of the system. The pumping errors in these models need to be eliminated for correct simulation of cyclical systems (e.g. transport above a tidally forced watertable, infiltration and redistribution under periodic irrigation) if the soils exhibit significant hysteresis. A modification is made here to the PL method that allows it to be more readily applied to numerical models by eliminating the need to store a large number of soil moisture reversal points. The modified-PL method largely eliminates any artificial pumping error and so essentially retains the accuracy of the original PL approach. The modified-PL method is implemented in HYDRUS-1D (version 2.0), which is then used to simulate cyclic capillary fringe dynamics to show the influence of removing artificial pumping errors and to demonstrate the ease of implementation. Artificial pumping errors are shown to be significant for the soils and system characteristics used here in numerical experiments of transport above a fluctuating watertable. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tradeoffs of different types of species occurrence data for use in systematic conservation planning

Data on the occurrence of species are widely used to inform the design of reserve networks. These data contain commission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be present) and omission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be absent), and the rates of the two types of error are inversely related. Point locality data can minimize commission errors, but those obtained from museum collections are generally sparse, suffer from substantial spatial bias and contain large omission errors. Geographic ranges generate large commission errors because they assume homogenous species distributions. Predicted distribution data make explicit inferences on species occurrence and their commission and omission errors depend on model structure, on the omission of variables that determine species distribution and on data resolution. Omission errors lead to identifying networks of areas for conservation action that are smaller than required and centred on known species occurrences, thus affecting the comprehensiveness, representativeness and efficiency of selected areas. Commission errors lead to selecting areas not relevant to conservation, thus affecting the representativeness and adequacy of reserve networks. Conservation plans should include an estimation of commission and omission errors in underlying species data and explicitly use this information to influence conservation planning outcomes.

A D-optimal designed population pharmacokinetic study of itraconazole capsules and solution in adults with cystic fibrosis

Background: Oral itraconazole (ITRA) is used for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) because of its antifungal activity against Aspergillus species. ITRA has an active hydroxy-metabolite (OH-ITRA) which has similar antifungal activity. ITRA is a highly lipophilic drug which is available in two different oral formulations, a capsule and an oral solution. It is reported that the oral solution has a 60% higher relative bioavailability. The influence of altered gastric physiology associated with CF on the pharmacokinetics (PK) of ITRA and its metabolite has not been previously evaluated. Objectives: 1) To estimate the population (pop) PK parameters for ITRA and its active metabolite OH-ITRA including relative bioavailability of the parent after administration of the parent by both capsule and solution and 2) to assess the performance of the optimal design. Methods: The study was a cross-over design in which 30 patients received the capsule on the first occasion and 3 days later the solution formulation. The design was constrained to have a maximum of 4 blood samples per occasion for estimation of the popPK of both ITRA and OH-ITRA. The sampling times for the population model were optimized previously using POPT v.2.0.[1] POPT is a series of applications that run under MATLAB and provide an evaluation of the information matrix for a nonlinear mixed effects model given a particular design. In addition it can be used to optimize the design based on evaluation of the determinant of the information matrix. The model details for the design were based on prior information obtained from the literature, which suggested that ITRA may have either linear or non-linear elimination. The optimal sampling times were evaluated to provide information for both competing models for the parent and metabolite and for both capsule and solution simultaneously. Blood samples were assayed by validated HPLC.[2] PopPK modelling was performed using FOCE with interaction under NONMEM, version 5 (level 1.1; GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD, USA). The PK of ITRA and OH‑ITRA was modelled simultaneously using ADVAN 5. Subsequently three methods were assessed for modelling concentrations less than the LOD (limit of detection). These methods (corresponding to methods 5, 6 & 4 from Beal[3], respectively) were (a) where all values less than LOD were assigned to half of LOD, (b) where the closest missing value that is less than LOD was assigned to half the LOD and all previous (if during absorption) or subsequent (if during elimination) missing samples were deleted, and (c) where the contribution of the expectation of each missing concentration to the likelihood is estimated. The LOD was 0.04 mg/L. The final model evaluation was performed via bootstrap with re-sampling and a visual predictive check. The optimal design and the sampling windows of the study were evaluated for execution errors and for agreement between the observed and predicted standard errors. Dosing regimens were simulated for the capsules and the oral solution to assess their ability to achieve ITRA target trough concentration (Cmin,ss of 0.5-2 mg/L) or a combined Cmin,ss for ITRA and OH-ITRA above 1.5mg/L. Results and Discussion: A total of 241 blood samples were collected and analysed, 94% of them were taken within the defined optimal sampling windows, of which 31% where taken within 5 min of the exact optimal times. Forty six per cent of the ITRA values and 28% of the OH-ITRA values were below LOD. The entire profile after administration of the capsule for five patients was below LOD and therefore the data from this occasion was omitted from estimation. A 2-compartment model with 1st order absorption and elimination best described ITRA PK, with 1st order metabolism of the parent to OH-ITRA. For ITRA the clearance (ClItra/F) was 31.5 L/h; apparent volumes of central and peripheral compartments were 56.7 L and 2090 L, respectively. Absorption rate constants for capsule (kacap) and solution (kasol) were 0.0315 h-1 and 0.125 h-1, respectively. Comparative bioavailability of the capsule was 0.82. There was no evidence of nonlinearity in the popPK of ITRA. No screened covariate significantly improved the fit to the data. The results of the parameter estimates from the final model were comparable between the different methods for accounting for missing data, (M4,5,6)[3] and provided similar parameter estimates. The prospective application of an optimal design was found to be successful. Due to the sampling windows, most of the samples could be collected within the daily hospital routine, but still at times that were near optimal for estimating the popPK parameters. The final model was one of the potential competing models considered in the original design. The asymptotic standard errors provided by NONMEM for the final model and empirical values from bootstrap were similar in magnitude to those predicted from the Fisher Information matrix associated with the D-optimal design. Simulations from the final model showed that the current dosing regimen of 200 mg twice daily (bd) would provide a target Cmin,ss (0.5-2 mg/L) for only 35% of patients when administered as the solution and 31% when administered as capsules. The optimal dosing schedule was 500mg bd for both formulations. The target success for this dosing regimen was 87% for the solution with an NNT=4 compared to capsules. This means, for every 4 patients treated with the solution one additional patient will achieve a target success compared to capsule but at an additional cost of AUD $220 per day. The therapeutic target however is still doubtful and potential risks of these dosing schedules need to be assessed on an individual basis. Conclusion: A model was developed which described the popPK of ITRA and its main active metabolite OH-ITRA in adult CF after administration of both capsule and solution. The relative bioavailability of ITRA from the capsule was 82% that of the solution, but considerably more variable. To incorporate missing data, using the simple Beal method 5 (using half LOD for all samples below LOD) provided comparable results to the more complex but theoretically better Beal method 4 (integration method). The optimal sparse design performed well for estimation of model parameters and provided a good fit to the data.

Managing people and performance:An evidence based framework applied to health service organizations

People and their performance are key to an organization's effectiveness. This review describes an evidence-based framework of the links between some key organizational influences and staff performance, health and well-being. This preliminary framework integrates management and psychological approaches, with the aim of assisting future explanation, prediction and organizational change. Health care is taken as the focus of this review, as there are concerns internationally about health care effectiveness. The framework considers empirical evidence for links between the following organizational levels: 1. Context (organizational culture and inter-group relations; resources, including staffing; physical environment) 2. People management (HRM practices and strategies; job design, workload and teamwork; employee involvement and control over work; leadership and support) 3. Psychological consequences for employees (health and stress; satisfaction and commitment; knowledge, skills and motivation) 4. Employee behaviour (absenteeism and turnover; task and contextual performance; errors and near misses) 5. Organizational performance; patient care. This review contributes to an evidence base for policies and practices of people management and performance management. Its usefulness will depend on future empirical research, using appropriate research designs, sufficient study power and measures that are reliable and valid.

Accuracy of cornea and lens biometry using anterior segment optical coherence tomography

We assess the accuracy of the Visante anterior segment optical coherence tomographer (AS-OCT) and present improved formulas for measurement of surface curvature and axial separation. Measurements are made in physical model eyes. Accuracy is compared for measurements of corneal thickness (d1) and anterior chamber depth (d2) using-built-in AS-OCT software versus the improved scheme. The improved scheme enables measurements of lens thickness (d 3) and surface curvature, in the form of conic sections specified by vertex radii and conic constants. These parameters are converted to surface coordinates for error analysis. The built-in AS-OCT software typically overestimates (mean±standard deviation(SD)]d1 by +62±4 μm and d2 by +4±88μm. The improved scheme reduces d1 (-0.4±4 μm) and d2 (0±49 μm) errors while also reducing d3 errors from +218±90 (uncorrected) to +14±123 μm (corrected). Surface x coordinate errors gradually increase toward the periphery. Considering the central 6-mm zone of each surface, the x coordinate errors for anterior and posterior corneal surfaces reached +3±10 and 0±23 μm, respectively, with the improved scheme. Those of the anterior and posterior lens surfaces reached +2±22 and +11±71 μm, respectively. Our improved scheme reduced AS-OCT errors and could, therefore, enhance pre- and postoperative assessments of keratorefractive or cataract surgery, including measurement of accommodating intraocular lenses. © 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Techniques for determining bias and stability in satellite altimeters

The case for monitoring large-scale sea level variability is established in the context of the estimation of the extent of anthropogenic climate change. Satellite altimeters are identified as having the potential to monitor this change with high resolution and accuracy. Possible sources of systematic errors and instabilities in these instruments which would be hurdles to the most accurate monitoring of such ocean signals are examined. Techniques for employing tide gauges to combat such inaccuracies are proposed and developed. The tide gauge at Newhaven in Sussex is used in conjunction with the nearby satellite laser ranger and high-resolution ocean models to estimate the absolute bias of the TOPEX, Poseidon, ERS 1 and ERS 2 altimeters. The theory which underlies the augmentation of altimeter measurements with tide gauge data is developed. In order to apply this, the tide gauges of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are assessed and their suitability for altimeter calibration is determined. A reliable subset of these gauges is derived. A method of intra-altimeter calibration is developed using these tide gauges to remove the effect of variability over long time scales. In this way the long-term instability in the TOPEX range measurement is inferred and the drift arising from the on-board ultra stable oscillator is thus detected. An extension to this work develops a method for inter-altimeter calibration, allowing the systematic differences between unconnected altimeters to be measured. This is applied to the TOPEX and ERS 1 altimeters.

Uncertainty and topographic visualisations

This thesis is a study of low-dimensional visualisation methods for data visualisation under certainty of the input data. It focuses on the two main feed-forward neural network algorithms which are NeuroScale and Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) by trying to make both algorithms able to accommodate the uncertainty. The two models are shown not to work well under high levels of noise within the data and need to be modified. The modification of both models, NeuroScale and GTM, are verified by using synthetic data to show their ability to accommodate the noise. The thesis is interested in the controversy surrounding the non-uniqueness of predictive gene lists (PGL) of predicting prognosis outcome of breast cancer patients as available in DNA microarray experiments. Many of these studies have ignored the uncertainty issue resulting in random correlations of sparse model selection in high dimensional spaces. The visualisation techniques are used to confirm that the patients involved in such medical studies are intrinsically unclassifiable on the basis of provided PGL evidence. This additional category of ‘unclassifiable’ should be accommodated within medical decision support systems if serious errors and unnecessary adjuvant therapy are to be avoided.

Enhancing student learning experience through a novel electronic coursework assessment and feedback management system

Recent National Student Surveys revealed that many U.K. university students are dissatisfied with the timeliness and usefulness of the feedback received from their tutors. Ensuring timeliness in marking often results in a reduction in the quality of feedback. In Computer Science where learning relies on practising and learning from mistakes, feedback that pin-points errors and explains means of improvement is important to achieve a good student learning experience. Though suitable use of Information and Communication Technology should alleviate this problem, existing Virtual Learning Environments and e-Assessment applications such as Blackboard/WebCT, BOSS, MarkTool and GradeMark are inadequate to support a coursework assessment process that promotes timeliness and usefulness of feedback while maintaining consistency in marking involving multiple tutors. We have developed a novel Internet application, called eCAF, for facilitating an efficient and transparent coursework assessment and feedback process. The eCAF system supports detailed marking scheme editing and enables tutors to use such schemes to pin-point errors in students' work so as to provide helpful feedback efficiently. Tutors can also highlight areas in a submitted work and associate helpful feedback that clearly links to the identified mistakes and the respective marking criteria. In light of the results obtained from a recent trial of eCAF, we discuss how the key features of eCAF may facilitate an effective and efficient coursework assessment and feedback process.

Effects of syllable structure in aphasic errors:implications for a new model of speech production

Current models of word production assume that words are stored as linear sequences of phonemes which are structured into syllables only at the moment of production. This is because syllable structure is always recoverable from the sequence of phonemes. In contrast, we present theoretical and empirical evidence that syllable structure is lexically represented. Storing syllable structure would have the advantage of making representations more stable and resistant to damage. On the other hand, re-syllabifications affect only a minimal part of phonological representations and occur only in some languages and depending on speech register. Evidence for these claims comes from analyses of aphasic errors which not only respect phonotactic constraints, but also avoid transformations which move the syllabic structure of the word further away from the original structure, even when equating for segmental complexity. This is true across tasks, types of errors, and, crucially, types of patients. The same syllabic effects are shown by apraxic patients and by phonological patients who have more central difficulties in retrieving phonological representations. If syllable structure was only computed after phoneme retrieval, it would have no way to influence the errors of phonological patients. Our results have implications for psycholinguistic and computational models of language as well as for clinical and educational practices.

A near real-time water surface detection method based on HSV transformation of MODIS multi-Spectral time series data

In the face of global population growth and the uneven distribution of water supply, a better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources is critical. Remote sensing provides a synoptic view of ongoing processes, which addresses the intricate nature of water surfaces and allows an assessment of the pressures placed on aquatic ecosystems. However, the main challenge in identifying water surfaces from remotely sensed data is the high variability of spectral signatures, both in space and time. In the last 10 years only a few operational methods have been proposed to map or monitor surface water at continental or global scale, and each of them show limitations. The objective of this study is to develop and demonstrate the adequacy of a generic multi-temporal and multi-spectral image analysis method to detect water surfaces automatically, and to monitor them in near-real-time. The proposed approach, based on a transformation of the RGB color space into HSV, provides dynamic information at the continental scale. The validation of the algorithm showed very few omission errors and no commission errors. It demonstrates the ability of the proposed algorithm to perform as effectively as human interpretation of the images. The validation of the permanent water surface product with an independent dataset derived from high resolution imagery, showed an accuracy of 91.5% and few commission errors. Potential applications of the proposed method have been identified and discussed. The methodology that has been developed 27 is generic: it can be applied to sensors with similar bands with good reliability, and minimal effort. Moreover, this experiment at continental scale showed that the methodology is efficient for a large range of environmental conditions. Additional preliminary tests over other continents indicate that the proposed methodology could also be applied at the global scale without too many difficulties

24-Karat or fool’s gold? Consequences of real team and co-acting group membership in healthcare organizations

Although theory on team membership is emerging, limited empirical attention has been paid to the effects of different types of team membership on outcomes. We propose that an important but overlooked distinction is that between membership of real teams and membership of co-acting groups, with the former being characterized by members who report that their teams have shared objectives, and structural interdependence and engage in team reflexivity. We hypothesize that real team membership will be associated with more positive individual- and organizational-level outcomes. These predictions were tested in the English National Health Service, using data from 62,733 respondents from 147 acute hospitals. The results revealed that individuals reporting the characteristics of real team membership, in comparison with those reporting the characteristics of co-acting group membership, witnessed fewer errors and incidents, experienced fewer work related injuries and illness, were less likely to be victims of violence and harassment, and were less likely to intend to leave their current employment. At the organizational level, hospitals with higher proportions of staff reporting the characteristics of real team membership had lower levels of patient mortality and sickness absence. The results suggest the need to clearly delineate real team membership in order to advance scientific understanding of the processes and outcomes of organizational teamwork.

Phonological simplifications, apraxia of speech and the interaction between phonological and phonetic processing

Research on aphasia has struggled to identify apraxia of speech (AoS) as an independent deficit affecting a processing level separate from phonological assembly and motor implementation. This is because AoS is characterized by both phonological and phonetic errors and, therefore, can be interpreted as a combination of deficits at the phonological and the motoric level rather than as an independent impairment. We apply novel psycholinguistic analyses to the perceptually phonological errors made by 24 Italian aphasic patients. We show that only patients with relative high rate (>10%) of phonetic errors make sound errors which simplify the phonology of the target. Moreover, simplifications are strongly associated with other variables indicative of articulatory difficulties - such as a predominance of errors on consonants rather than vowels -but not with other measures - such as rate of words reproduced correctly or rates of lexical errors. These results indicate that sound errors cannot arise at a single phonological level because they are different in different patients. Instead, different patterns: (1) provide evidence for separate impairments and the existence of a level of articulatory planning/programming intermediate between phonological selection and motor implementation; (2) validate AoS as an independent impairment at this level, characterized by phonetic errors and phonological simplifications; (3) support the claim that linguistic principles of complexity have an articulatory basis since they only apply in patients with associated articulatory difficulties.