Improved estimation of Weibull Parameters considering unreliability uncertainties

We propose a linear regression method for estimating Weibull parameters from life tests. The method uses stochastic models of the unreliability at each failure instant. As a result, a heteroscedastic regression problem arises that is solved by weighted least squares minimization. The main feature of our method is an innovative s-normalization of the failure data models, to obtain analytic expressions of centers and weights for the regression. The method has been Monte Carlo contrasted with Benard?s approximation, and Maximum Likelihood Estimation; and it has the highest global scores for its robustness, and performance.

Modelización de series temporales complejas: de las redes de telecomunicación a los mercados financieros

Este trabajo aborda el problema de modelizar sistemas din´amicos reales a partir del estudio de sus series temporales, usando una formulaci´on est´andar que pretende ser una abstracci´on universal de los sistemas din´amicos, independientemente de su naturaleza determinista, estoc´astica o h´ıbrida. Se parte de modelizaciones separadas de sistemas deterministas por un lado y estoc´asticos por otro, para converger finalmente en un modelo h´ıbrido que permite estudiar sistemas gen´ericos mixtos, esto es, que presentan una combinaci´on de comportamiento determinista y aleatorio. Este modelo consta de dos componentes, uno determinista consistente en una ecuaci´on en diferencias, obtenida a partir de un estudio de autocorrelaci´on, y otro estoc´astico que modeliza el error cometido por el primero. El componente estoc´astico es un generador universal de distribuciones de probabilidad, basado en un proceso compuesto de variables aleatorias, uniformemente distribuidas en un intervalo variable en el tiempo. Este generador universal es deducido en la tesis a partir de una nueva teor´ıa sobre la oferta y la demanda de un recurso gen´erico. El modelo resultante puede formularse conceptualmente como una entidad con tres elementos fundamentales: un motor generador de din´amica determinista, una fuente interna de ruido generadora de incertidumbre y una exposici´on al entorno que representa las interacciones del sistema real con el mundo exterior. En las aplicaciones estos tres elementos se ajustan en base al hist´orico de las series temporales del sistema din´amico. Una vez ajustados sus componentes, el modelo se comporta de una forma adaptativa tomando como inputs los nuevos valores de las series temporales del sistema y calculando predicciones sobre su comportamiento futuro. Cada predicci´on se presenta como un intervalo dentro del cual cualquier valor es equipro- bable, teniendo probabilidad nula cualquier valor externo al intervalo. De esta forma el modelo computa el comportamiento futuro y su nivel de incertidumbre en base al estado actual del sistema. Se ha aplicado el modelo en esta tesis a sistemas muy diferentes mostrando ser muy flexible para afrontar el estudio de campos de naturaleza dispar. El intercambio de tr´afico telef´onico entre operadores de telefon´ıa, la evoluci´on de mercados financieros y el flujo de informaci´on entre servidores de Internet son estudiados en profundidad en la tesis. Todos estos sistemas son modelizados de forma exitosa con un mismo lenguaje, a pesar de tratarse de sistemas f´ısicos totalmente distintos. El estudio de las redes de telefon´ıa muestra que los patrones de tr´afico telef´onico presentan una fuerte pseudo-periodicidad semanal contaminada con una gran cantidad de ruido, sobre todo en el caso de llamadas internacionales. El estudio de los mercados financieros muestra por su parte que la naturaleza fundamental de ´estos es aleatoria con un rango de comportamiento relativamente acotado. Una parte de la tesis se dedica a explicar algunas de las manifestaciones emp´ıricas m´as importantes en los mercados financieros como son los “fat tails”, “power laws” y “volatility clustering”. Por ´ultimo se demuestra que la comunicaci´on entre servidores de Internet tiene, al igual que los mercados financieros, una componente subyacente totalmente estoc´astica pero de comportamiento bastante “d´ocil”, siendo esta docilidad m´as acusada a medida que aumenta la distancia entre servidores. Dos aspectos son destacables en el modelo, su adaptabilidad y su universalidad. El primero es debido a que, una vez ajustados los par´ametros generales, el modelo se “alimenta” de los valores observables del sistema y es capaz de calcular con ellos comportamientos futuros. A pesar de tener unos par´ametros fijos, la variabilidad en los observables que sirven de input al modelo llevan a una gran riqueza de ouputs posibles. El segundo aspecto se debe a la formulaci´on gen´erica del modelo h´ıbrido y a que sus par´ametros se ajustan en base a manifestaciones externas del sistema en estudio, y no en base a sus caracter´ısticas f´ısicas. Estos factores hacen que el modelo pueda utilizarse en gran variedad de campos. Por ´ultimo, la tesis propone en su parte final otros campos donde se han obtenido ´exitos preliminares muy prometedores como son la modelizaci´on del riesgo financiero, los algoritmos de routing en redes de telecomunicaci´on y el cambio clim´atico. Abstract This work faces the problem of modeling dynamical systems based on the study of its time series, by using a standard language that aims to be an universal abstraction of dynamical systems, irrespective of their deterministic, stochastic or hybrid nature. Deterministic and stochastic models are developed separately to be merged subsequently into a hybrid model, which allows the study of generic systems, that is to say, those having both deterministic and random behavior. This model is a combination of two different components. One of them is deterministic and consisting in an equation in differences derived from an auto-correlation study and the other is stochastic and models the errors made by the deterministic one. The stochastic component is an universal generator of probability distributions based on a process consisting in random variables distributed uniformly within an interval varying in time. This universal generator is derived in the thesis from a new theory of offer and demand for a generic resource. The resulting model can be visualized as an entity with three fundamental elements: an engine generating deterministic dynamics, an internal source of noise generating uncertainty and an exposure to the environment which depicts the interactions between the real system and the external world. In the applications these three elements are adjusted to the history of the time series from the dynamical system. Once its components have been adjusted, the model behaves in an adaptive way by using the new time series values from the system as inputs and calculating predictions about its future behavior. Every prediction is provided as an interval, where any inner value is equally probable while all outer ones have null probability. So, the model computes the future behavior and its level of uncertainty based on the current state of the system. The model is applied to quite different systems in this thesis, showing to be very flexible when facing the study of fields with diverse nature. The exchange of traffic between telephony operators, the evolution of financial markets and the flow of information between servers on the Internet are deeply studied in this thesis. All these systems are successfully modeled by using the same “language”, in spite the fact that they are systems physically radically different. The study of telephony networks shows that the traffic patterns are strongly weekly pseudo-periodic but mixed with a great amount of noise, specially in the case of international calls. It is proved that the underlying nature of financial markets is random with a moderate range of variability. A part of this thesis is devoted to explain some of the most important empirical observations in financial markets, such as “fat tails”, “power laws” and “volatility clustering”. Finally it is proved that the communication between two servers on the Internet has, as in the case of financial markets, an underlaying random dynamics but with a narrow range of variability, being this lack of variability more marked as the distance between servers is increased. Two aspects of the model stand out as being the most important: its adaptability and its universality. The first one is due to the fact that once the general parameters have been adjusted , the model is “fed” on the observable manifestations of the system in order to calculate its future behavior. Despite the fact that the model has fixed parameters the variability in the observable manifestations of the system, which are used as inputs of the model, lead to a great variability in the possible outputs. The second aspect is due to the general “language” used in the formulation of the hybrid model and to the fact that its parameters are adjusted based on external manifestations of the system under study instead of its physical characteristics. These factors made the model suitable to be used in great variety of fields. Lastly, this thesis proposes other fields in which preliminary and promising results have been obtained, such as the modeling of financial risk, the development of routing algorithms for telecommunication networks and the assessment of climate change.

Analysis of the influence of the different variables involved in a damage progression probability model

Motivated by these difficulties, Castillo et al. (2012) made some suggestions on how to build consistent stochastic models avoiding the selection of easy to use mathematical functions, which were replaced by those resulting from a set of properties to be satisfied by the model.

Desarrollo de un Procedimiento Basado en Algoritmos de Optimización para el Dimensionado de Absorbedores Puntuales Aplicados a la Conversión de Energía Undimotriz

La energía transportada por el oleaje a través de los océanos (energía undimotriz) se enmarca dentro de las denominadas energías oceánicas. Su aprovechamiento para generar energía eléctrica (o ser aprovechada de alguna otra forma) es una idea reflejada ya hace más de dos siglos en una patente (1799). Desde entonces, y con especial intensidad desde los años 70, ha venido despertando el interés de instituciones ligadas al I+D+i y empresas del sector energético y tecnológico, debido principalmente a la magnitud del recurso disponible. Actualmente se puede considerar al sector en un estado precomercial, con un amplio rango de dispositivos y tecnologías en diferente grado de desarrollo en los que ninguno destaca sobre los otros (ni ha demostrado su viabilidad económica), y sin que se aprecie una tendencia a converger un único dispositivo (o un número reducido de ellos). El recurso energético que se está tratando de aprovechar, pese a compartir la característica de no-controlabilidad con otras fuentes de energía renovable como la eólica o la solar, presenta una variabilidad adicional. De esta manera, diferentes localizaciones, pese a poder presentar recursos de contenido energético similar, presentan oleajes de características muy diferentes en términos de alturas y periodos de oleaje, y en la dispersión estadística de estos valores. Esta variabilidad en el oleaje hace que cobre especial relevancia la adecuación de los dispositivos de aprovechamiento de energía undimotriz (WEC: Wave Energy Converter) a su localización, de cara a mejorar su viabilidad económica. Parece razonable suponer que, en un futuro, el proceso de diseño de un parque de generación undimotriz implique un rediseño (en base a una tecnología conocida) para cada proyecto de implantación en una nueva localización. El objetivo de esta tesis es plantear un procedimiento de dimensionado de una tecnología de aprovechamiento de la energía undimotriz concreta: los absorbedores puntuales. Dicha metodología de diseño se plantea como un problema de optimización matemático, el cual se resuelve utilizando un algoritmo de optimización bioinspirado: evolución diferencial. Este planteamiento permite automatizar la fase previa de dimensionado implementando la metodología en un código de programación. El proceso de diseño de un WEC es un problema de ingería complejo, por lo que no considera factible el planteamiento de un diseño completo mediante un único procedimiento de optimización matemático. En vez de eso, se platea el proceso de diseño en diferentes etapas, de manera que la metodología desarrollada en esta tesis se utilice para obtener las dimensiones básicas de una solución de referencia de WEC, la cual será utilizada como punto de partida para continuar con las etapas posteriores del proceso de diseño. La metodología de dimensionado previo presentada en esta tesis parte de unas condiciones de contorno de diseño definidas previamente, tales como: localización, características del sistema de generación de energía eléctrica (PTO: Power Take-Off), estrategia de extracción de energía eléctrica y concepto concreto de WEC). Utilizando un algoritmo de evolución diferencial multi-objetivo se obtiene un conjunto de soluciones factibles (de acuerdo con una ciertas restricciones técnicas y dimensionales) y óptimas (de acuerdo con una serie de funciones objetivo de pseudo-coste y pseudo-beneficio). Dicho conjunto de soluciones o dimensiones de WEC es utilizado como caso de referencia en las posteriores etapas de diseño. En el documento de la tesis se presentan dos versiones de dicha metodología con dos modelos diferentes de evaluación de las soluciones candidatas. Por un lado, se presenta un modelo en el dominio de la frecuencia que presenta importantes simplificaciones en cuanto al tratamiento del recurso del oleaje. Este procedimiento presenta una menor carga computacional pero una mayor incertidumbre en los resultados, la cual puede traducirse en trabajo adicional en las etapas posteriores del proceso de diseño. Sin embargo, el uso de esta metodología resulta conveniente para realizar análisis paramétricos previos de las condiciones de contorno, tales como la localización seleccionada. Por otro lado, la segunda metodología propuesta utiliza modelos en el domino estocástico, lo que aumenta la carga computacional, pero permite obtener resultados con menos incertidumbre e información estadística muy útil para el proceso de diseño. Por este motivo, esta metodología es más adecuada para su uso en un proceso de dimensionado completo de un WEC. La metodología desarrollada durante la tesis ha sido utilizada en un proyecto industrial de evaluación energética preliminar de una planta de energía undimotriz. En dicho proceso de evaluación, el método de dimensionado previo fue utilizado en una primera etapa, de cara a obtener un conjunto de soluciones factibles de acuerdo con una serie de restricciones técnicas básicas. La selección y refinamiento de la geometría de la solución geométrica de WEC propuesta fue realizada a posteriori (por otros participantes del proyecto) utilizando un modelo detallado en el dominio del tiempo y un modelo de evaluación económica del dispositivo. El uso de esta metodología puede ayudar a reducir las iteraciones manuales y a mejorar los resultados obtenidos en estas últimas etapas del proyecto. ABSTRACT The energy transported by ocean waves (wave energy) is framed within the so-called oceanic energies. Its use to generate electric energy (or desalinate ocean water, etc.) is an idea expressed first time in a patent two centuries ago (1799). Ever since, but specially since the 1970’s, this energy has become interesting for R&D institutions and companies related with the technological and energetic sectors mainly because of the magnitude of available energy. Nowadays the development of this technology can be considered to be in a pre-commercial stage, with a wide range of devices and technologies developed to different degrees but with none standing out nor economically viable. Nor do these technologies seem ready to converge to a single device (or a reduce number of devices). The energy resource to be exploited shares its non-controllability with other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. However, wave energy presents an additional short-term variability due to its oscillatory nature. Thus, different locations may show waves with similar energy content but different characteristics such as wave height or wave period. This variability in ocean waves makes it very important that the devices for harnessing wave energy (WEC: Wave Energy Converter) fit closely to the characteristics of their location in order to improve their economic viability. It seems reasonable to assume that, in the future, the process of designing a wave power plant will involve a re-design (based on a well-known technology) for each implementation project in any new location. The objective of this PhD thesis is to propose a dimensioning method for a specific wave-energy-harnessing technology: point absorbers. This design methodology is presented as a mathematical optimization problem solved by using an optimization bio-inspired algorithm: differential evolution. This approach allows automating the preliminary dimensioning stage by implementing the methodology in programmed code. The design process of a WEC is a complex engineering problem, so the complete design is not feasible using a single mathematical optimization procedure. Instead, the design process is proposed in different stages, so the methodology developed in this thesis is used for the basic dimensions of a reference solution of the WEC, which would be used as a starting point for the later stages of the design process. The preliminary dimensioning methodology presented in this thesis starts from some previously defined boundary conditions such as: location, power take-off (PTO) characteristic, strategy of energy extraction and specific WEC technology. Using a differential multi-objective evolutionary algorithm produces a set of feasible solutions (according to certain technical and dimensional constraints) and optimal solutions (according to a set of pseudo-cost and pseudo-benefit objective functions). This set of solutions or WEC dimensions are used as a reference case in subsequent stages of design. In the document of this thesis, two versions of this methodology with two different models of evaluation of candidate solutions are presented. On the one hand, a model in the frequency domain that has significant simplifications in the treatment of the wave resource is presented. This method implies a lower computational load but increased uncertainty in the results, which may lead to additional work in the later stages of the design process. However, use of this methodology is useful in order to perform previous parametric analysis of boundary conditions such as the selected location. On the other hand, the second method uses stochastic models, increasing the computational load, but providing results with smaller uncertainty and very useful statistical information for the design process. Therefore, this method is more suitable to be used in a detail design process for full dimensioning of the WEC. The methodology developed throughout the thesis has been used in an industrial project for preliminary energetic assessment of a wave energy power plant. In this assessment process, the method of previous dimensioning was used in the first stage, in order to obtain a set of feasible solutions according to a set of basic technical constraints. The geometry of the WEC was refined and selected subsequently (by other project participants) using a detailed model in the time domain and a model of economic evaluation of the device. Using this methodology can help to reduce the number of design iterations and to improve the results obtained in the last stages of the project.

Service capacity reserve under uncertainty by hospital's ER's analogies: a practical model for car services

El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en definir un modelo de reserva de capacidad, por analogías con emergencias hospitalarias, que pueda ser implementado en el sector de servicios. Este está específicamente enfocado a su aplicación en talleres de servicio de automóviles. Nuestra investigación incorpora la incertidumbre de la demanda en un modelo singular diseñado en etapas que agrupa técnicas ARIMA, teoría de colas y simulación Monte Carlo para definir los conceptos de capacidad y ocupación de servicio, que serán utilizados para minimizar el coste implícito de la reserva capacidad necesaria para atender a clientes que carecen de cita previa. Habitualmente, las compañías automovilísticas estiman la capacidad de sus instalaciones de servicio empíricamente, pero los clientes pueden llegar bajo condiciones de incertidumbre que no se tienen en cuenta en dichas estimaciones, por lo que existe una diferencia entre lo que el cliente realmente demanda y la capacidad que ofrece el servicio. Nuestro enfoque define una metodología válida para el sector automovilístico que cubre la ausencia genérica de investigaciones recientes y la habitual falta de aplicación de técnicas estadísticas en el sector. La equivalencia con la gestión de urgencias hospitalarias se ha validado a lo largo de la investigación en la se definen nuevos indicadores de proceso (KPIs) Tal y como hacen los hospitales, aplicamos modelos estocásticos para dimensionar las instalaciones de servicio de acuerdo con la distribución demográfica del área de influencia. El modelo final propuesto integra la predicción del coste implícito en la reserva de capacidad para atender la demanda no prevista. Asimismo, se ha desarrollado un código en Matlab que puede integrarse como un módulo adicional a los sistemas de información (DMS) que se usan actualmente en el sector, con el fin de emplear los nuevos indicadores de proceso definidos en el modelo. Los resultados principales del modelo son nuevos indicadores de servicio, tales como la capacidad, ocupación y coste de reserva de capacidad, que nunca antes han sido objeto de estudio en la industria automovilística, y que están orientados a gestionar la operativa del servicio. ABSTRACT Our aim is to define a Capacity Reserve model to be implemented in the service sector by hospital's emergency room (ER) analogies, with a practical approach to passenger car services. A stochastic model has been implemented using R and a Monte Carlo simulation code written in Matlab and has proved a very useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty. The research integrates demand uncertainty in a unique model which is built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, Queuing Theory and a Monte Carlo simulation to define the concepts of service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Usually, passenger car companies estimate their service facilities capacity using empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the estimations. Thus, there is a gap between customer’s real demand and the dealer’s capacity. This research sets a valid methodology for the passenger car industry to cover the generic absence of recent researches and the generic lack of statistical techniques implementation. The hospital’s emergency room (ER) equalization has been confirmed to be valid for the passenger car industry and new process indicators have been defined to support the study. As hospitals do, we aim to apply stochastic models to dimension installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced. The proposed model integrates the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand. The Matlab code could be implemented as part of the existing information technology systems (ITs) to support the existing service management tools, creating a set of new process indicators. Main model outputs are new indicators, such us Capacity, Occupancy and Cost of Capacity Reserve, never studied in the passenger car service industry before, and intended to manage the service operation.

Capilla del M.I.T. de Eero Saarinen, 1950-55 : sincretismo en la armonía de los opuestos

La historia de la arquitectura se ha medido - en parte - por la evolución de las modas, épocas y estilos de la arquitectura religiosa. En la aparición de las nuevas capillas interreligiosas universitarias de los años '50 de Norteamérica, la capilla del M.I.T., bautizada tras su inauguración como “Kresge Chapel” en honor al apellido de su benefactor, fue el máximo exponente como prototipo en esta época marcada por la aparición nuevas conciencias de posguerra. (II Guerra Mundial). La tesis centra su investigación en esta capilla, cómo nació en respuesta a la necesidad de compatibilizar la enseñanza reglada científico tecnológica con una formación religiosa y humanista, para el programa impuesto como ampliación del campus universitario del MIT en el barrio universitario de Cambridge, Boston, Massachussets, en torno a dos edificios principales a proyectar: capilla y auditorio. Desde el trabajo de investigación se aporta la información documental necesaria para saber cómo evolucionó desde sus primeros bocetos hasta su construcción. Su nacimiento como necesidad en la sociedad universitaria no fue nada espontáneo, quedando a medias entre la influencia escandinavo - alemana y la tradición americano-luterana de anteriores iglesias neoclásicas herederas del “Plan Akron”. La formación académica y profesional dirigida por su padre, Eliel Saarinen, suman junto a los viajes del arquitecto, una herencia “genética” para con este prototipo ajeno al emergente “estilo internacional” y ayudan a comprender la dimensión compleja de lo que es capaz de representar la capilla. La capilla es refugio emocional de la luz y es un punto de inflexión notable en la recuperación del tipo centrado renovado y evolucionado, que junto con el doble recurso lumínico - efectista, de la vertical para el altar y horizontal inferior, distribuido desde el perímetro ondulado en el interior, el ejemplo es muestra la promoción de una cierta sensibilidad para con las nuevas formas de la "religión" emergentes en la Norteamérica de los años 50. Desde el sincretismo como mecanismo y principal “modus operandi” proyectual, FE versus RAZÓN, aparecen como dualismo permanente en todas las fases del proyecto, desde un proceso de búsqueda de la armonía de ambos y para cada uno de ellos. Con el estudio del modelo prototípico del MIT, buscamos el "patrón" empleado por el arquitecto en su proyección de "nueva iglesia" adaptado a la diversidad cultural y religiosa y de las nuevas y diferentes sensibilidades humanistas para el proyecto. ----------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY--------------------------------------------------- The history of architecture is measured - in part - by the evolution of fashion, periods and styles of religious architecture. In the emergence of the new interfaith university chapel of the 1950s in North America, the chapel of MIT, named after its inauguration as "Kresge Chapel" in honor of its benefactor, was the best example of a prototype, in this time so marked by the emergence of new postwar consciousnesses. The thesis focuses its research on this chapel; how it came about in response to the need to reconcile formal scientific and technological education with religious and humanist training for the program imposed as an extension of the campus of MIT in the university district of Cambridge, Boston Massachusetts, around two main projected buildings : Chapel and auditorium. From research work has been obtained the documentary information necessary to know how it evolved from the first sketches to its construction. Its creation as a necessity of the university society was not at all spontaneous, being halfway between the Scandinavian influence - German and the American Lutheran tradition of neoclassical churches, the heirs to the "Akron Plan". The academic and professional training directed by his father, Eliel Saarinen, together with the travels of the architect, a "genetic" heritage with this external prototype for the emerging "international style", and help to understand the complex dimension of what the chapel is capable of representing. The chapel is an emotional refuge of light and is a remarkable turning point in the recovery of such focused renewed and evolved, along with the double lumen resource - gimmicky, vertical to the altar and lower horizontal, distributed from the undulating perimeter inside, the example is shown to promote a certain sensitivity to the new forms of "religion" but vague religious profile emerging in the America of the 50s. From the syncretism as a mechanism and main "modus operandi" of the project, FAITH versus REASON appears as permanent dualism in all phases of the project from a process of finding the harmony of both and for each of them. With the study of the prototypical model of MIT, we seek the "pattern" used by the architect in his projection of "new church" adapted to the cultural and religious diversity and new and different humanist sensitivities for the project. El desarrollo vierte la luz suficiente para entender los patrones de lo arquitectónico en la capilla, que hacen de ella, la comunión armónica y perfecta de los nombrados opuestos en el campus universitario del MIT. En el camino, además, la investigación arroja luz y orden sobre las fases del proyecto a través de la contribución, recogida, clasificación y orden de los datos, fechas y documentos gráficos, a día de hoy dispersos y confusamente publicados, debido a la no existencia de un estudio profundo y completo como el que pretende ser este trabajo, por ser una obra fundamental en la historia de la arquitectura moderna. El patrón final demostrará el artificio sincrético de cada una de las partes - cada uno en sí misma y cosidas todas - formando el "Ima Summis" de la capilla; resultado de la acción proyectual deducida de su serie genética descifrada. De esta forma, lo sincrético, aparece como el principal atributo del hecho construido, pasando de lo místico a lo científico, de lo intuitivo a lo razonado y siempre con el vehículo de su arquitectura para la interpretación de lo inefable al interior. En cuanto a la estructura de la tesis, se inicia el desarrollo a partir de una introducción en la que se declaran las intenciones y se describe el contexto de lo investigado en torno a la hipótesis principal anunciada en el subtítulo de la tesis. Frente a consideraciones previas de la capilla y de la propia investigación, se expone y explica la hipótesis principal, junto a otros objetivos secundarios. Para finalizar la introducción, se describe el método seguido como estrategia y se justifica la estructura de redacción del documento para la compresión de este trabajo hacia sus conclusiones. Es en el primer capítulo, el C1, donde se inicia el cuerpo central mediante la exposición historiográfica de la situación y contexto previo a la capilla como antecedentes. En un segundo capítulo, el C2, se aborda el estudio del desarrollo del proyecto y de la obra y construcción de la capilla, base documental necesaria. Para ello se inicia con la descripción del lugar, del encargo y del programa, para pasar a mostrar con detalle las distintas propuestas de cada una de las fases del proyecto. En definitiva, qué se proyecto, cómo evolucionó el proyecto y en qué fases transcurrió, para entre otras cuestiones, entender el cambio de estilo desde una fase influenciada por la capilla de Mies construida en el ITT de Chicago, (denominadas en este trabajo por esta influencia como modelos “miesianos”) y la fase reencuentro con el modus de hacer iniciado por su padre Eliel, a través de un modelo a medias de una herencia escandinavo - alemana y la tradición luterano - americana, (denominada en este trabajo como herencia o modelos “saariniana/os”). The development sheds enough light to understand the architectural patterns of the chapel, making it the perfect and harmonic communion named opposites on the campus of MIT. Along the way, furthermore, the research sheds light and order on the phases of the project through the contribution, collection, sorting and order of data, dates and graphic documents, today scattered and confusingly published, due to inexistence of a deep and comprehensive study like this work is meant to be, in the context of such a seminal work in the history of modern architecture. The final pattern will demonstrate the syncretic artifice of each of the parts - each in itself and all together - forming the "Ima Summis" of the chapel; the result of the project action deducted from its deciphered genetic series. Being the SYNCRETIC, the main attribute of the built matter, passing from the mystical to the scientific, from the intuitive to the reasoned and always with the vehicle of architecture as the representation of the ineffable. As for the structure of the thesis, the development starts from an introduction in which the intentions are declared and the context of that which is investigated is described, in terms of the main hypothesis announced in the subtitle of the thesis. Faced with previous considerations of the chapel and the research itself, the principal hypothesis is expressed and explained, along with other secondary objectives. To conclude the introduction, the method followed is described as a strategy and the structuring of the document is justified for the compression of this work towards its conclusions. It is in the first chapter of the thesis, the C1, where the main body of the work is initiated through the historiographical account of the situation and context prior to the chapel as antecedents. A second chapter, C2, addresses the study of the development of the project and of the work and construction of the chapel, based on the necessary documentary evidence. To this end, the analysis begins with the description of the place, the commission and the program, moving on to analyze in detail the various proposals of each phase. What is projected, how it evolved and through what phases passed the project to, among other questions, understand the change in style between the phase of influence of Mies through the projected chapel in the ITT of Chicago chapel (called in this work as "miesian" influences or models) and the reunion with the modus of making initiated by his father Eliel, through a model equally at once of Scandinavian-German heritage and of the American-Lutheran tradition, (referred to in this work as "saarinian" inheritance or models). Para el tercer capítulo, el C3, se llevan a estudio y análisis, los elementos más destacables en los que se prueban las particularidades llamadas “genéticas” en cada uno de las partes principales detectadas en la capilla. Desde ellas se rastrean las influencias - a veces sinergias - que ayudan a justificar y conformar una clasificación genética en torno a cuatro patrones principales, de los que poder discernir al final del capítulo, el “patrón matriz” de la propia capilla en base a la concurrencia de los órdenes arquitectónicos que los conforman. Una vez obtenida la información y orden necesario, se puede afrontar el punto álgido de esta tesis con el cuarto capítulo, el C4, en el que se justifica la capacidad sincrética de la capilla como respuesta a la hipótesis principal señalada en el subtítulo. Para ello se inicia el capítulo con el enfoque y contexto del término “sincretismo” y “sincrético”, aportando la justificación de sus usos para con esta investigación, antes de explicar que la capilla es sincrética por la suma de dos claves fundamentales. La clave primera, correspondiente a la capacidad interconfesional y aconfesional de la capilla, y su capacidad de trascender al interior desde ambas situaciones además de ser reconocible por el religioso y a la vez por el científico. Y la clave segunda, que corresponde a la suma de las distintas partes sincréticas, cada una en si mismas, capaz de sumar todas juntas, este edificio sincrético de los nombrados opuestos. Una vez discernido las claves de lo sincrético en la capilla y a pesar de su doble carácter SACRO Y PROFANO, una comparativa posiciona a la capilla como único entre los ejemplos interconfesionales construidos en los ´50, sin haberse repetido de igual manera y mismo resultado en el tiempo, ni en ninguna otra universidad o centro tecnológico. Así la exposición de este trabajo finaliza con el último capítulo, el C5, en el que desde esa comparativa, una serie de cuestiones unen y distancian a la del MIT y dan acierto a la apuesta inicial, concluyendo que la hipótesis y el patrón de la misma, es el patrón de lo sincrético que modela el ”modus operandi ” del arquitecto. Tras el desarrollo, la investigación cierra filas en torno a cuatro conclusiones para los cuatro capítulos principales; C2, C3, C4, C5. La capilla del MIT como modelo prototípico no se repite en el tiempo, ni en ninguna otra universidad y se posiciona como el mejor prototipo – hito de una nueva arquitectura religiosa universitaria. In the third chapter, C3, we study and analyze the most notable elements in which are found those particularities referred to as "genetic" in each of the principal parts, (see above C3.1.1... - C3.1.8), where these influences - sometimes synergies - are traced, helping to justify and form a classification based on four of those principals (see above C3.2), from which, at the end of this chapter may be discerned a matrix pattern, that of the chapel itself (see above. C3.3.), based on concurrent architectural orders. Once the necessary information and order is obtained, we come to the decisive point in the fourth chapter, C4, where the syncretic capacity of the chapel in response to the main hypothesis indicated in the subtitle of the thesis is justified. For this, the chapter beings with the focus and context of the terms "syncretism" and "syncretic", providing justification for their use for this research, going on to assert that the chapel is syncretic from the sum of two fundamental aspects: the first corresponds to the interfaith and non-denominational capacities of the chapel, its ability to transcend both situations and be recognizable by both the religious and the scientific. The second corresponds to the sum of the different syncretic parts, each in themselves, capable of making together a syncretic building with the opposite. Once discerned the keys to the syncretic and epic in the chapel and despite its dual character both SACRED and PROFANE, a comparatison positions the chapel as being unique among interfaith examples built in the 1950s, without being repeated in the same way and with the same result over time or in any other university or centre of technology. So, the exhibition of this work ends with the last chapter, C5, in which from that comparison a number of issues come together and to distance themselves from MIT and bear out the initial proposition, concluding that the hypothesis and its pattern, the pattern of the syncretic which models the "modus operandi" of the architect to contain the ineffable. The research closes ranks around four conclusions for the four main chapters; C2, C3, C4, and C5 The chapel of MIT as a prototypical model is not repeated in time, or any other university and is positioned as the best prototype - a landmark of a new universitary religious architecture.

Abnormal skeletal patterning in embryos lacking a single Cbp allele: A partial similarity with Rubinstein–Taybi syndrome

CBP is a transcriptional coactivator required by many transcription factors for transactivation. Rubinstein–Taybi syndrome, which is an autosomal dominant syndrome characterized by abnormal pattern formation, has been shown to be associated with mutations in the Cbp gene. Furthermore, Drosophila CBP is required in hedgehog signaling for the expression of decapentapleigic, the Drosophila homologue of bone morphogenetic protein. However, no direct evidence exists to indicate that loss of one copy of the mammalian Cbp gene affects pattern formation. Here, we show that various abnormalities occur at high frequency in the skeletal system of heterozygous Cbp-deficient mice resulting from a C57BL/6-CBA × BALB/c cross. In support of a conserved signaling pathway for pattern formation in insects and mammals, the expression of Bmp7 was found to be reduced in the heterozygous mutants. The frequency of the different abnormalities was significantly lower in a C57BL/6-CBA background, suggesting that the genetic background is an important determinant of the variability and severity of the anomalies seen in Rubinstein–Taybi syndrome patients.

Dissociation of HIV-1 from follicular dendritic cells during HAART: Mathematical analysis

Follicular dendritic cells (FDC) provide a reservoir for HIV type 1 (HIV-1) that may reignite infection if highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is withdrawn before virus on FDC is cleared. To estimate the treatment time required to eliminate HIV-1 on FDC, we develop deterministic and stochastic models for the reversible binding of HIV-1 to FDC via ligand–receptor interactions and examine the consequences of reducing the virus available for binding to FDC. Analysis of these models shows that the rate at which HIV-1 dissociates from FDC during HAART is biphasic, with an initial period of rapid decay followed by a period of slower exponential decay. The speed of the slower second stage of dissociation and the treatment time required to eradicate the FDC reservoir of HIV-1 are insensitive to the number of virions bound and their degree of attachment to FDC before treatment. In contrast, the expected time required for dissociation of an individual virion from FDC varies sensitively with the number of ligands attached to the virion that are available to interact with receptors on FDC. Although most virions may dissociate from FDC on the time scale of days to weeks, virions coupled to a higher-than-average number of ligands may persist on FDC for years. This result suggests that HAART may not be able to clear all HIV-1 trapped on FDC and that, even if clearance is possible, years of treatment will be required.

AP-2-null cells disrupt morphogenesis of the eye, face, and limbs in chimeric mice

The homozygous disruption of the mouse AP-2 gene yields a complex and lethal phenotype that results from defective development of the neural tube, head, and body wall. The severe and pleiotropic developmental abnormalities observed in the knockout mouse suggested that AP-2 may regulate several morphogenic pathways. To uncouple the individual developmental mechanisms that are dependent on AP-2, we have now analyzed chimeric mice composed of both wild-type and AP-2-null cells. The phenotypes obtained from these chimeras indicate that there is an independent requirement for AP-2 in the formation of the neural tube, body wall, and craniofacial skeleton. In addition, these studies reveal that AP-2 exerts a major influence on eye formation, which is a critical new role for AP-2 that was masked previously in the knockout mice. Furthermore, we also have uncovered an unexpected influence of AP-2 on limb pattern formation; this influence is typified by major limb duplications. The range of phenotypes observed in the chimeras displays a significant overlap with those caused by teratogenic levels of retinoic acid, strongly suggesting that AP-2 is an important component of the mechanism of action of this morphogen.

A model for individual and collective cell movement in Dictyostelium discoideum

The cellular slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum is a widely used model system for studying a variety of basic processes in development, including cell–cell signaling, signal transduction, pattern formation, cell motility, and the movement of tissue-like aggregates of cells. Many aspects of cell motion are poorly understood, including how individual cell behavior produces the collective motion of cells observed within the mound and slug. Herein, we describe a biologically realistic model for motile D. discoideum cells that can generate active forces, that interact via surface molecules, and that can detect and respond to chemotactic signals. We model the cells as deformable viscoelastic ellipsoids and incorporate signal transduction and cell–cell signaling by using a previously developed model. The shape constraint restricts the admissible deformations but makes the simulation of a large number of interacting cells feasible. Because the model is based on known processes, the parameters can be estimated or measured experimentally. We show that this model can reproduce the observations on the chemotactic behavior of single cells, streaming during aggregation, and the collective motion of an aggregate of cells driven by a small group of pacemakers. The model predicts that the motion of two-dimensional slugs [Bonner, J. T. (1998) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95, 9355–9359] results from the same behaviors that are exhibited by individual cells; it is not necessary to invoke different mechanisms or behaviors. Our computational experiments also suggest previously uncharacterized phenomena that may be experimentally observable.

Simple mechanochemistry describes the dynamics of kinesin molecules

Recently, Block and coworkers [Visscher, K., Schnitzer, M. J., & Block, S. M. (1999) Nature (London) 400, 184–189 and Schnitzer, M. J., Visscher, K. & Block, S. M. (2000) Nat. Cell Biol. 2, 718–723] have reported extensive observations of individual kinesin molecules moving along microtubules in vitro under controlled loads, F = 1 to 8 pN, with [ATP] = 1 μM to 2 mM. Their measurements of velocity, V, randomness, r, stalling force, and mean run length, L, reveal a need for improved theoretical understanding. We show, presenting explicit formulae that provide a quantitative basis for comparing distinct molecular motors, that their data are satisfactorily described by simple, discrete-state, sequential stochastic models. The simplest (N = 2)-state model with fixed load-distribution factors and kinetic rate constants concordant with stopped-flow experiments, accounts for the global (V, F, L, [ATP]) interdependence and, further, matches relative acceleration observed under assisting loads. The randomness, r(F,[ATP]), is accounted for by a waiting-time distribution, ψ\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{1}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}(t), [for the transition(s) following ATP binding] with a width parameter ν ≡ 〈t〉2/〈(Δt)2〉≃2.5, indicative of a dispersive stroke of mechanicity ≃0.6 or of a few (≳ν − 1) further, kinetically coupled states: indeed, N = 4 (but not N = 3) models do well. The analysis reveals: (i) a substep of d0 = 1.8–2.1 nm on ATP binding (consistent with structurally based suggestions); (ii) comparable load dependence for ATP binding and unbinding; (iii) a strong load dependence for reverse hydrolysis and subsequent reverse rates; and (iv) a large (≳50-fold) increase in detachment rate, with a marked load dependence, following ATP binding.

Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics.

The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.

A rice homeobox gene, OSH1, is expressed before organ differentiation in a specific region during early embryogenesis.

Homeobox genes encode a large family of homeodomain proteins that play a key role in the pattern formation of animal embryos. By analogy, homeobox genes in plants are thought to mediate important processes in their embryogenesis, but there is very little evidence to support this notion. Here we described the temporal and spatial expression patterns of a rice homeobox gene, OSH1, during rice embryogenesis. In situ hybridization analysis revealed that in the wild-type embryo, OSH1 was first expressed at the globular stage, much earlier than organogenesis started, in a ventral region where shoot apical meristem and epiblast would later develop. This localized expression of OSH1 indicates that the cellular differentiation has already occurred at this stage. At later stages after organogenesis had initiated, OSH1 expression was observed in shoot apical meristem [except in the L1 (tunica) layer], epiblast, radicle, and their intervening tissues in descending strength of expression level with embryonic maturation. We also performed in situ hybridization analysis with a rice organless embryo mutant, orl1, that develops no embryonic organs. In the orl1 embryo, the expression pattern of OSH1 was the same as that in the wild-type embryo in spite of the lack of embryonic organs. This shows that OSH1 is not directly associated with organ differentiation, but may be related to a regulatory process before or independent of the organ determination. The results described here strongly suggest that, like animal homeobox genes, OSH1 plays an important role in regionalization of cell identity during early embryogenesis.

4-Oxoretinol, a new natural ligand and transactivator of the retinoic acid receptors.

All-trans-retinoic acid (at-RA) induces cell differentiation in a wide variety of cell types, including F9 embryonic teratocarcinoma cells, and can influence axial pattern formation during embryonic development. We now identify a novel retinoid synthetic pathway in differentiating F9 cells that results in the intracellular production of 4-oxoretinol (4-oxo-ROL) from retinol (vitamin A). Approximately 10-15% of the total retinol in the culture is metabolized to 4-hydroxyretinol and 4-oxo-ROL by the at-RA-treated, differentiating F9 cells over an 18-hr period, but no detectable metabolism of all-trans-retinol to at-RA or 9-cis-retinoic acid is observed in these cells. Remarkably, we show that 4-oxo-ROL can bind and activate transcription of the retinoic acid receptors whereas all-trans-retinol shows neither activity. Low doses of 4-oxo-ROL (e.g., 10(-9) or 10(-10 M) can activate the retinoic acid receptors even though, unlike at-RA, 4-oxo-ROL does not contain an acid moiety at the carbon 15 position. 4-oxo-ROL does not bind or transcriptionally activate the retinoid X receptors. Treatment of F9 cells with 4-oxo-ROL induces differentiation without conversion to the acid and 4-oxo-ROL is active in causing axial truncation when administered to Xenopus embryos at the blastula stage. Thus, 4-oxo-ROL is a natural, biologically active retinoid that is present in differentiated F9 cells. Our data suggest that 4-oxo-ROL may be a novel signaling molecule and regulator of cell differentiation.

Whole-body protochordate regeneration from totipotent blood cells.

Cell differentiation, tissue formation, and organogenesis are fundamental patterns during the development of multicellular animals from the dividing cells of fertilized eggs. Hence, the complete morphogenesis of any developing organism of the animal kingdom is based on a complex series of interactions that is always associated with the development of a blastula, a one-layered hollow sphere. Here we document an alternative pathway of differentiation, organogenesis, and morphogenesis occurring in an adult protochordate colonial organism. In this system, any minute fragment of peripheral blood vessel containing a limited number of blood cells isolated from Botrylloides, a colonial sea squirt, has the potential to give rise to a fully functional organism possessing all three embryonic layers. Regeneration probably results from a small number of totipotent stem cells circulating in the blood system. The developmental process starts from disorganized, chaotic masses of blood cells. At first an opaque cell mass is formed. Through intensive cell divisions, a hollow, blastula-like structure results, which may produce a whole organism within a short period of a week. This regenerative power of the protochordates may be compared with some of the characteristics associated with the formation of mammalian embryonal carcinomous bodies. It may also serve as an in vivo model system for studying morphogenesis and differentiation by shedding more light on the controversy of the "stem cell" vs. the "dedifferentiation" theories of regeneration and pattern formation.