Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Effect of potassium silicate on epidemic components of powdery mildew on melon

The effects of silicon (Si) supplied in the form of potassium silicate (PS) were evaluated on epidemic components of powdery mildew of melon under greenhouse conditions. The PS was applied to the roots or to leaves. In the first experiment, epidemic components were evaluated after inoculation with Podosphaera xanthii. In the second experiment, the disease progress rate was evaluated on plants subjected to natural infection. The area under the disease progress curve was reduced by 65% and 73% in the foliar and root treatments, respectively, compared to control plants, as a consequence of reductions in infection efficiency, colony expansion rate, colony area, conidial production and disease progress rate. However, root application of PS was more effective than foliar application in reducing most of the epidemic components, except for infection efficiency. This can be explained by the high Si concentration in leaf tissues with root application, in contrast to the foliar treatment where Si was only deposited on the external leaf surfaces. The effects of PS reported in this study demonstrated that powdery mildew of melon can be controlled, and that the best results can be achieved when PS is supplied to the roots.

A Genetic and Pathologic Study of a DENV2 Clinical Isolate Capable of Inducing Encephalitis and Hematological Disturbances in Immunocompetent Mice

Dengue virus (DENV) is the causative agent of dengue fever (DF), a mosquito-borne illness endemic to tropical and subtropical regions. There is currently no effective drug or vaccine formulation for the prevention of DF and its more severe forms, i.e., dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). There are two generally available experimental models for the study of DENV pathogenicity as well as the evaluation of potential vaccine candidates. The first model consists of non-human primates, which do not develop symptoms but rather a transient viremia. Second, mouse-adapted virus strains or immunocompromised mouse lineages are utilized, which display some of the pathological features of the infection observed in humans but may not be relevant to the results with regard to the wild-type original virus strains or mouse lineages. In this study, we describe a genetic and pathological study of a DENV2 clinical isolate, named JHA1, which is naturally capable of infecting and killing Balb/c mice and reproduces some of the symptoms observed in DENV-infected subjects. Sequence analyses demonstrated that the JHA1 isolate belongs to the American genotype group and carries genetic markers previously associated with neurovirulence in mouse-adapted virus strains. The JHA1 strain was lethal to immunocompetent mice following intracranial (i.c.) inoculation with a LD50 of approximately 50 PFU. Mice infected with the JHA1 strain lost weight and exhibited general tissue damage and hematological disturbances, with similarity to those symptoms observed in infected humans. In addition, it was demonstrated that the JHA1 strain shares immunological determinants with the DENV2 NGC reference strain, as evaluated by cross-reactivity of anti-envelope glycoprotein (domain III) antibodies. The present results indicate that the JHA1 isolate may be a useful tool in the study of DENV pathogenicity and will help in the evaluation of anti-DENV vaccine formulations as well as potential therapeutic approaches.

Spatial distribution of arboviral mosquito vectors (Diptera, Culicidae) in Vale do Ribeira in the South-eastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Mosquitoes are vectors of arboviruses that can cause encephalitis and hemorrhagic fevers in humans. Aedes serratus (Theobald), Aedes scapularis (Rondani) and Psorophora ferox (Von Humboldt) are potential vectors of arboviruses and are abundant in Vale do Ribeira, located in the Atlantic Forest in the southeast of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of these mosquitoes and estimate the risk of human exposure to mosquito bites. Results of the analyses show that humans are highly exposed to bites in the municipalities of Cananeia, Iguape and Ilha Comprida. In these localities the incidence of Rocio encephalitis was 2% in the 1970s. Furthermore, Ae. serratus, a recently implicated vector of yellow fever virus in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, should be a target for the entomological surveillance in the southeastern Atlantic Forest. Considering the continental dimensions of Brazil and the inherent difficulties in sampling its vast area, the habitat suitability method used in the study can be an important tool for predicting the distribution of vectors of pathogens.

The white epidemic and the asepsis of refined earthenware in Belle Epoque Sao Paulo

The article examines Brazilian refined earthenwares known as faianca fina (fine faience) and relates ideas about its production to the contextual backdrop of hygienist discourses in the city of Sao Paulo in the early twentieth century. Based on an analysis of glaze components, moisture expansion processes, and technological aspects of the production of earthenware recovered from the Petybon archeological site, it is suggested that the establishment of factories and the production and consumption of white ceramics in the city of Sao Paulo were partially a consequence of the vigorous hygienization policies and modernity projects then advocated by Sao Paulo's elites.

Neospora caninum as causative agent of bovine encephalitis in Brazil

For supporting the Brazilian bovine encephalitis surveillance program this study examined the differential diagnosis of Neospora caninum in central nervous system (CNS) by histological analysis (HE staining), immunohistochemistry (IHC), and nested-PCR using a set of primers from the Nc5 region of the genomic DNA and ITS1 region of the ribosomal DNA. A sample of 302 cattle presenting neurological syndrome and negative for rabies, aged 0 to 18 years, from herds in 10 Brazilian states was evaluated for N caninum from January 2007 to April 2010. All specimens tested negative with IHC and nested-PCR using primers from the ITS I region of ribosomal DNA, while two positive cases (0.66%) were found using primers from the Nc5 region of genomic DNA: a 20 month-old male and a 72 month-old female, both from Sao Paulo State. Only the male presented severe multifocal necrotizing encephalitis associated with mononuclear cell infiltration, a pathognomonic lesion caused by parasites of the family Sarcocystidae, and only this case was associated with N caninum thus representing 0.33% positivity. Future studies should explore the association of IHC and nested-PCR with real-time PCR, a quantitative method that could be standardized for improving the detection of N. caninum in bovine CNS specimens.

Enhanced phagocytosis of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis by monocyte-macrophage cells from goats naturally infected with caprine arthritis encephalitis virus

Sanches B.G.S., Souza F.N., Azedo M.R., Batista C.F., Bertagnon H.G., Blagitz M.G. & Della Libera A.M.M.P. 2012. [Enhanced phagocytosis of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis by monocyte-macrophage cells from goats naturally infected with caprine arthritis encephalitis virus.] Fagocitose intensificada de Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis por celulas da serie monocito-macrofago de caprinos naturalmente infectados pelo virus da artrite encefalite. Pesquisa Veterinaria Brasileira 32(12):1225-1229. Departamento de Clinica Medica, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinaria e Zootecnia, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Avenida Prof. Dr. Orlando Marques de Paiva 87, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo, SP 05508-270, Brazil. E-mail: camilafb@usp.br Caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE) and caseous lymphadenitis (CL) have high incidence and transmissibility in small ruminants. Since both virus have tropism for macrophages and monocytes and affect the innate immune response, it is believed that CAE can predispose the animal to infection by Corynebacteruim pseudotuberculosis, the etiological agent of CL. To confirm this hypothesis, we evaluated phagocytosis from the monocyte-macrophage cells from 30 Saanen goats. Goats were uniformly divided in two groups according to results of agar gel immunodiffusion test for CAE virus (CAEV). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were isolated by density gradient centrifugation and the monocyte-macrophage cells were isolated from the mononuclear cells by their adhesion properties in plaques. Afterwards, phagocytosis of C. psudotuberculosis was performed for two hours at 37 degrees C, 5% of CO2, and assessed by microscopic visualization. There was no difference in the percentage of monocyte-macrophage cells that phagocytozed C. bovis between groups (P = 0.41). However, when phagocytosis rates were classified according to the number of C. pseudotuberculosis phagocyted, the percentage of monocyte-macrophage cells that internalized more than 12 bacteria were higher in serologically CAEV positive animals compared to the serologically negative ones (P < 0.001). Furthermore, a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.488; P = 0.006) between the percentage of monocyte-macrophage cells that internalized more than 12 bacteria and the percentage of monocyte that were carrying out phagocytosis was also encountered in serologically CAEV positive goats, however the same were not observed in serologically negative ones. These results demonstrated an alteration in the intensity of C. pseudotuberculosis phagocytosis by monocytes-macrophages from goats infected by CAEV. Thus, these results indicated that goats infected with CAEV may be more susceptible to CL.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

Molecular phylogeography of tick-borne encephalitis virus in central Europe

In order to obtain a better understanding of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) strain movements in central Europe the E gene sequences of 102 TBEV strains collected from 1953 to 2011 at 38 sites in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Germany were determined. Bayesian analysis suggests a 350-year history of evolution and spread in central Europe of two main lineages, A and B. In contrast to the east to west spread at the Eurasian continent level, local central European spreading patterns suggest historic west to east spread followed by more recent east to west spread. The phylogenetic and network analyses indicate TBEV ingressions from the Czech Republic and Slovakia into Germany via landscape features (Danube river system), biogenic factors (birds, red deer) and anthropogenic factors. The identification of endemic foci showing local genetic diversity is of paramount importance to the field as these will be a prerequisite for in-depth analysis of focal TBEV maintenance and long-distance TBEV spread.

Comparative study by computed radiography, histology, and scanning electron microscopy of the articular cartilage of normal goats and in chronic infection with caprine arthritis-encephalitis virus

In the northeast of Brazil, caprine arthritis-encephalitis (CAE) is one of the key reasons for herd productivity decreasing that result in considerable economic losses. A comparative study was carried out using computed radiography (CR), histological analysis (HA), and scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) of the joints of CAE infected and normal goats. Humerus head surface of positive animals presented reduced joint space, increased bone density, and signs of degenerative joint disease (DJD). The carpal joint presented no morphological alterations in CR in any of the animals studied. Tarsus joint was the most affected, characterized by severe DJD, absence of joint space, increased periarticular soft tissue density, edema, and bone sclerosis. Histological analysis showed chronic tissue lesions, complete loss of the surface zone, absence of proteoglycans in the transition and radial zones and destruction of the cartilage surface in the CAE positive animals. Analysis by SEM showed ulcerated lesions with irregular and folded patterns on the joint surface that distinguished the limits between areas of normal and affected cartilage. The morphological study of the joints of normal and CAE positive goats deepened understanding of the alteration in the tissue bioarchitecture of the most affected joints. The SEM finding sustained previous histological reports, similar to those found for rheumatoid arthritis, suggesting that the goat infected with CAE can be considered as a potential model for research in this area.

Characterization of West Nile virus strains isolated in Italy

West Nile virus (WNV) is a neurotropic flavivirus that is maintained in an enzootic cycle between mosquitoes and birds, but can also infect and cause disease in humans and other vertebrate species. Most of WNV infections in humans are asymptomatic, but approximately 20% of infected people develop clinical symptoms, although severe neurological diseases are observed in less than 1% of them. WNV is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world and has been recently associated with outbreaks of meningo-encephalitis in Europe, including Italy, caused by different viral strains belonging to distinct lineages 1 and 2. The hypothesis is that genetic divergence among viral strains currently circulating in Italy might reflect on their pathogenic potential and that the rapid spread of WNV with increased pathogenicity within naïve population suggest that epidemic forms of the virus may encode mechanisms to evade host immunity. Infection with WNV triggers a delayed host response that includes a delay in the production of interferon-α (IFN-α). IFNs are a family of immuno-modulatory cytokines that are produced in response to virus infection and serve as integral signal initiators of host intracellular defenses. The increased number of human cases and the lack of data about virulence of European WNV isolates highlight the importance to achieve a better knowledge on this emerging viral infection. In the present study, we investigate the phenotypic and IFN-α-regulatory properties of different WNV lineage 1 and 2 strains that are circulating in Europe/Italy in two cell lines: Vero and 1321N1. We demonstrate that: Vero and 1321N1 cells are capable of supporting WNV replication where different WNV strains show similar growth kinetics; WNV lineage 2 strain replicated in Vero and 1321N1 cells as efficiently as WNV lineage 1 strains; and both lineages 1 and 2 were highly susceptible to the antiviral actions of IFN-α.

Improvement of non-paraneoplastic voltage-gated potassium channel antibody-associated limbic encephalitis without immunosuppressive therapy

We describe a 61-year-old patient with clinical evidence of limbic encephalitis who improved with anticonvulsant treatment only, that is, without the use of immunosuppressive agents. Three years following occurrence of anosmia, increasing memory deficits, and emotional disturbances, he presented with new-onset temporal lobe epilepsy, with antibodies binding to neuronal voltage-gated potassium channels and bitemporal hypometabolism on FDG-PET scan; the MRI scan was normal. This is most likely a case of spontaneous remission, illustrating that immunosuppressive therapy might be suspended in milder courses of limbic encephalitis. It remains open whether treatment with anticonvulsant drugs played an additional beneficiary role through the direct suppression of seizures or, additionally, through indirect immunomodulatory side effects.

Long-term outcome of acute encephalitis of unknown aetiology in adults

Encephalitis is caused by a variety of conditions, including infections of the brain by a wide range of pathogens. A substantial number of cases of encephalitis defy all attempts at identifying a specific cause. Little is known about the long-term prognosis in patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology, which complicates their management during the acute illness. To learn more about the prognosis of patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology, patients in whom no aetiology could be identified were examined in a large, single-centre encephalitis cohort. In addition to analysing the clinical data of the acute illness, surviving patients were assessed by telephone interview a minimum of 2 years after the acute illness by applying a standardized test battery. Of the patients with encephalitis who qualified for inclusion (n = 203), 39 patients (19.2%) had encephalitis of unknown aetiology. The case fatality in these patients was 12.8%. Among the survivors, 53% suffered from various neurological sequelae, most often attention and sensory deficits. Among the features at presentation that were associated with adverse outcome were older age, increased C-reactive protein, coma and a high percentage of polymorphonuclear cells in the cerebrospinal fluid. In conclusion, the outcome in an unselected cohort of patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology was marked by substantial case fatality and by long-term neurological deficits in approximately one-half of the surviving patients. Certain features on admission predicted an unfavourable outcome.

High-throughput procedure for tick surveys of tick-borne encephalitis virus and its application in a national surveillance study in Switzerland

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a viral infection of the central nervous system, is endemic in many Eurasian countries. In Switzerland, TBE risk areas have been characterized by geographic mapping of clinical cases. Since mass vaccination should significantly decrease the number of TBE cases, alternative methods for exposure risk assessment are required. We established a new PCR-based test for the detection of TBE virus (TBEV) in ticks. The protocol involves an automated, high-throughput nucleic acid extraction method (QIAsymphony SP system) and a one-step duplex real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) assay for the detection of European subtype TBEV, including an internal process control. High usability, reproducibility, and equivalent performance for virus concentrations down to 5 x 10(3) viral genome equivalents/microl favor the automated protocol compared to the modified guanidinium thiocyanate-phenol-chloroform extraction procedure. The real-time RT-PCR allows fast, sensitive (limit of detection, 10 RNA copies/microl), and specific (no false-positive test results for other TBEV subtypes, other flaviviruses, or other tick-transmitted pathogens) detection of European subtype TBEV. The new detection method was applied in a national surveillance study, in which 62,343 Ixodes ricinus ticks were screened for the presence of TBE virus. A total of 38 foci of endemicity could be identified, with a mean virus prevalence of 0.46%. The foci do not fully agree with those defined by disease mapping. Therefore, the proposed molecular test procedure constitutes a prerequisite for an appropriate TBE surveillance. Our data are a unique complement of human TBE disease case mapping in Switzerland.