Estudo da viabilidade da implantação de frotas de veículos elétricos e híbridos elétricos no atual cenário econômico, político, energético e ambiental brasileiro

Currently there are two car models that use electricity in their propulsion systems, the electric vehicle and the hybrid electric vehicle. The electric vehicles are classified as vehicles that use electric motors in their propulsion system and batteries as a power source, on the other hand, the hybrid vehicles are classified as vehicles that use both electric motors and internal combustion engines in their propulsion system, using both batteries and líquid fuels as a power source. The main goal of this work is to analyze the characteristics of electric and hybrid electric vehicles and demonstrate the unfeasibility of the electric vehicle in the current economic, political, energetic and environmental brazilian scenario, for this purpose it was realized a study about the current brazilian situation regarding to electricity generation, current conservation status of road network, lack of electrical infrastructure for charging batteries, national lithium reserves, environmental characteristics, tax incentives, economic scenario, oil market and political positioning related to the implantation of electric or hybrid electric fleets in nacional territory. The operational characteristics analysis of electric and hybrid electric vehicles in this current scenario leads to the conclusion that currently a growth of electric vehicles fleets on a national scale is totally impractical in the Brazil, Thus, the introduction of green vehicles probably will occur primarily with hybrid electric models, motivated mainly due the bigger autonomy of this models compared to electric models, lower cost of hybrid electric models compared to electric models, factors related to the lack of recharging infrastructure and also factors related to political positioning

Numerical optimization,modeling and system evaluation of a thermophotovoltaic hybrid panel

Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels generally produce electricity in the 6% to 16% efficiency range, the rest being dissipated in thermal losses. To recover this amount, hybrid photovoltaic thermal systems (PVT) have been devised. These are devices that simultaneously convert solar energy into electricity and heat. It is thus interesting to study the PVT system globally from different point of views in order to evaluate advantages and disadvantages of this technology and its possible uses. In particular in Chapter II, the development of the PVT absorber numerical optimization by a genetic algorithm has been carried out analyzing different internal channel profiles in order to find a right compromise between performance and technical and economical feasibility. Therefore in Chapter III ,thanks to a mobile structure built into the university lab, it has been compared experimentally electrical and thermal output power from PVT panels with separated photovoltaic and solar thermal productions. Collecting a lot of experimental data based on different seasonal conditions (ambient temperature,irradiation, wind...),the aim of this mobile structure has been to evaluate average both thermal and electrical increasing and decreasing efficiency values obtained respect to separate productions through the year. In Chapter IV , new PVT and solar thermal equation based models in steady state conditions have been developed by software Dymola that uses Modelica language. This permits ,in a simplified way respect to previous system modelling softwares, to model and evaluate different concepts about PVT panel regarding its structure before prototyping and measuring it. Chapter V concerns instead the definition of PVT boundary conditions into a HVAC system . This was made trough year simulations by software Polysun in order to finally assess the best solar assisted integrated structure thanks to F_save(solar saving energy)factor. Finally, Chapter VI presents the conclusion and the perspectives of this PhD work.

Orbits design for Leo space based solar power satellite system

Space Based Solar Power satellites use solar arrays to generate clean, green, and renewable electricity in space and transmit it to earth via microwave, radiowave or laser beams to corresponding receivers (ground stations). These traditionally are large structures orbiting around earth at the geo-synchronous altitude. This thesis introduces a new architecture for a Space Based Solar Power satellite constellation. The proposed concept reduces the high cost involved in the construction of the space satellite and in the multiple launches to the geo-synchronous altitude. The proposed concept is a constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites that are smaller in size than the conventional system. For this application a Repeated Sun-Synchronous Track Circular Orbit is considered (RSSTO). In these orbits, the spacecraft re-visits the same locations on earth periodically every given desired number of days with the line of nodes of the spacecraft’s orbit fixed relative to the Sun. A wide range of solutions are studied, and, in this thesis, a two-orbit constellation design is chosen and simulated. The number of satellites is chosen based on the electric power demands in a given set of global cities. The orbits of the satellites are designed such that their ground tracks visit a maximum number of ground stations during the revisit period. In the simulation, the locations of the ground stations are chosen close to big cities, in USA and worldwide, so that the space power constellation beams down power directly to locations of high electric power demands. The j2 perturbations are included in the mathematical model used in orbit design. The Coverage time of each spacecraft over a ground site and the gap time between two consecutive spacecrafts visiting a ground site are simulated in order to evaluate the coverage continuity of the proposed solar power constellation. It has been observed from simulations that there always periods in which s spacecraft does not communicate with any ground station. For this reason, it is suggested that each satellite in the constellation be equipped with power storage components so that it can store power for later transmission. This thesis presents a method for designing the solar power constellation orbits such that the number of ground stations visited during the given revisit period is maximized. This leads to maximizing the power transmission to ground stations.

SURFACTANT-OIL INTERACTIONS: FOAMING & TOXICITY

Surfactants find large applications in detergents, paints, coatings, food and pharmaceutical industries. Other than that, much focused work has been carried out in oil recovery in petroleum industries and raw material extraction in mining industries. This is because of their unique structure and ability to simultaneously adhere to materials which are both structurally and physically different. The current thesis focuses on interactions of oil with different commercially available and laboratory synthesized surfactants in terms of characteristics such as foaming, ultrasound exposure and toxicity. Foaming is one important characteristic of surfactants that is widely utilized for oil recovery purposes. Researchers utilize surfactants' special ability to provide foam stability to for more efficient oil herding capability. The foam stability and foam volumes are calculated using static foam height tests. Further dispersion or oil in water emulsion formation is observed using ultrasound sources. As described earlier surfactants are not only used as foams for oil displacement, but they are also used for dispersion purposes where they are key components of dispersant formulations. During such operations, especially in sea conditions where adverse effects on aquatic life are a concern, toxicity of chemicals used becomes an important factor. Our toxicity testing experiments involves different surfactants, solvents and crude oil combinations through exposure to special light luminescent bacteria. The decrease in light intensity of the exposed bacteria is related to toxic effects of the samples.

Analysis of transport properties of mechanically alloyed [Pb1-xSnxTe]

The work described in this thesis had two objectives. The first objective was to develop a physically based computational model that could be used to predict the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity of Pb1-xSnxTe alloys over the 400 K to 700 K temperature as a function of Sn content and doping level. The second objective was to determine how the secondary phase inclusions observed in Pb1-xSnxTe alloys made by consolidating mechanically alloyed elemental powders impact the ability of the material to harvest waste heat and generate electricity in the 400 K to 700 K temperature range. The motivation for this work was that though the promise of this alloy as an unusually efficient thermoelectric power generator material in the 400 K to 700 K range had been demonstrated in the literature, methods to reproducibly control and subsequently optimize the materials thermoelectric figure of merit remain elusive. Mechanical alloying, though not typically used to fabricate these alloys, is a potential method for cost-effectively engineering these properties. Given that there are deviations from crystalline perfection in mechanically alloyed material such as secondary phase inclusions, the question arises as to whether these defects are detrimental to thermoelectric function or alternatively, whether they enhance thermoelectric function of the alloy. The hypothesis formed at the onset of this work was that the small secondary phase SnO2 inclusions observed to be present in the mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe would increase the thermoelectric figure of merit of the material over the temperature range of interest. It was proposed that the increase in the figure of merit would arise because the inclusions in the material would not reduce the electrical conductivity to as great an extent as the thermal conductivity. If this were to be true, then the experimentally measured electronic conductivity in mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe alloys that have these inclusions would not be less than that expected in alloys without these inclusions while the portion of the thermal conductivity that is not due to charge carriers (the lattice thermal conductivity) would be less than what would be expected from alloys that do not have these inclusions. Furthermore, it would be possible to approximate the observed changes in the electrical and thermal transport properties using existing physical models for the scattering of electrons and phonons by small inclusions. The approach taken to investigate this hypothesis was to first experimentally characterize the mobile carrier concentration at room temperature along with the extent and type of secondary phase inclusions present in a series of three mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe alloys with different Sn content. Second, the physically based computational model was developed. This model was used to determine what the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, total thermal conductivity, and the portion of the thermal conductivity not due to mobile charge carriers would be in these particular Pb1-xSnxTe alloys if there were to be no secondary phase inclusions. Third, the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and total thermal conductivity was experimentally measured for these three alloys with inclusions present at elevated temperatures. The model predictions for electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient were directly compared to the experimental elevated temperature electrical transport measurements. The computational model was then used to extract the lattice thermal conductivity from the experimentally measured total thermal conductivity. This lattice thermal conductivity was then compared to what would be expected from the alloys in the absence of secondary phase inclusions. Secondary phase inclusions were determined by X-ray diffraction analysis to be present in all three alloys to a varying extent. The inclusions were found not to significantly degrade electrical conductivity at temperatures above ~ 400 K in these alloys, though they do dramatically impact electronic mobility at room temperature. It is shown that, at temperatures above ~ 400 K, electrons are scattered predominantly by optical and acoustical phonons rather than by an alloy scattering mechanism or the inclusions. The experimental electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient data at elevated temperatures were found to be within ~ 10 % of what would be expected for material without inclusions. The inclusions were not found to reduce the lattice thermal conductivity at elevated temperatures. The experimentally measured thermal conductivity data was found to be consistent with the lattice thermal conductivity that would arise due to two scattering processes: Phonon phonon scattering (Umklapp scattering) and the scattering of phonons by the disorder induced by the formation of a PbTe-SnTe solid solution (alloy scattering). As opposed to the case in electrical transport, the alloy scattering mechanism in thermal transport is shown to be a significant contributor to the total thermal resistance. An estimation of the extent to which the mean free time between phonon scattering events would be reduced due to the presence of the inclusions is consistent with the above analysis of the experimental data. The first important result of this work was the development of an experimentally validated, physically based computational model that can be used to predict the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity of Pb1-xSnxTe alloys over the 400 K to 700 K temperature as a function of Sn content and doping level. This model will be critical in future work as a tool to first determine what the highest thermoelectric figure of merit one can expect from this alloy system at a given temperature and, second, as a tool to determine the optimum Sn content and doping level to achieve this figure of merit. The second important result of this work is the determination that the secondary phase inclusions that were observed to be present in the Pb1-xSnxTe made by mechanical alloying do not keep the material from having the same electrical and thermal transport that would be expected from “perfect" single crystal material at elevated temperatures. The analytical approach described in this work will be critical in future investigations to predict how changing the size, type, and volume fraction of secondary phase inclusions can be used to impact thermal and electrical transport in this materials system.

Company Houses Along the Picket Line

Michigan copper mining companies owned and rented more than 3,000 houses along the Keweenaw Peninsula at the time of the 1913-14 copper strike. The provision of company-constructed housing in mining districts has drawn a wide range of inquiry. Mining historians, community planners, architectural historians, and academics interested in the immigrant experience have identified miners' housing as intriguing examples of corporate paternalism, social planning, vernacular adaptation and ethnic segregation. Michigan's Copper Country retains many examples of such housing and recent research has shown that the Michigan copper mining companies championed the use of housing as a non-wage employment benefit. This paper will investigate the increasingly important role of occupancy and control of company housing during the strike. Illustrated with images collected during the strike by the fledgling U.S. Department of Labor, the presentation explores the history of company housing in the Copper Country, its part in a larger system of corporate welfare, and how the threat of evictions may have turned the tide of strike.

A Geological Report on South Boulder Canyon and The Mayflower Mine-Renova Areas

The purpose of this report is to serve as a written explanation of the accompanying geologic maps and columnar sec­tion. Each year the senior students in mining and geological engineering at the Montana School of Mines spend two weeks in the field where they learn the fundamentals of geologic mapping and related field studies. An additional week is spent at the school where maps are assembled, prints made, end other work is done in preparation for the writing of the report.

Design of a systematic approach to workplace exposure medical surveillance protocols

Current toxic tort cases have increased national awareness of health concerns and present an important avenue in which public health scientists can perform a vital function: in litigation, and in public health initiatives and promotions which may result. This review presents a systematic approach, using the paradigm of interactive public health disciplines, for the design of a matrix framework for medical surveillance of workers exposed to toxic substances. The matrix framework design addresses the required scientific bases to support the legal remedy of medical monitoring for workers injured as a result of their exposure to toxic agents. A background of recent legal developments which have a direct impact on the use of scientific expertise in litigation is examined in the context of toxic exposure litigation and the attainment of public health goals. The matrix model is applied to five different workplace exposures: dental mercury, firefighting, vinyl chloride manufacture, radon in mining and silica. An exposure matrix designed by the Department of Energy for government nuclear workers is included as a reference comparison to the design matrix. ^

Integración de baterías en sistemas fotovoltaicos conectados a red

La situación actual del mercado energético en España y el imparable aumento de las tasas por parte de las eléctricas, está fomentando la búsqueda de fuentes de energía alternativas que permitan a la población poder abastecerse de electricidad, sin tener que pagar unos costes tan elevados. Para cubrir esta necesidad, la energía fotovoltaica y sobretodo el autoconsumo con inyección a red o balance neto, está adquiriendo cada vez más importancia dentro del mundo energético. Pero la penetración de esta tecnología en la Red Eléctrica Española tiene un freno, la desconfianza por parte del operador de la red, ya que la fotovoltaica es una fuente de energía intermitente, que puede introducir inestabilidades en el sistema en caso de alta penetración. Por ello se necesita ganar la confianza de las eléctricas, haciendo que sea una energía predecible, que aporte potencia a la red eléctrica cuando se le pida y que opere participando en la regulación de la frecuencia del sistema eléctrico. Para tal fin, el grupo de investigación de Sistemas Fotovoltaicos, perteneciente al IES de la UPM, está llevando a cabo un proyecto de investigación denominado PV CROPS, financiado por la Comisión Europea, y que tiene por objetivo desarrollar estas estrategias de gestión. En este contexto, el objetivo de este Proyecto Fin de Carrera consiste en implementar un Banco de Ensayos con Integración de Baterías en Sistemas FV Conectados a Red, que permita desarrollar, ensayar y validar estas estrategias. Aprovechando la disponibilidad para usar el Hogar Digital, instalado en la EUITT de la UPM, hemos montado el banco de ensayos en un laboratorio contiguo, y así, poder utilizar este Hogar como un caso real de consumos energéticos de una vivienda. Este banco de ensayos permitirá obtener información de la energía generada por la instalación fotovoltaica y del consumo real de la "casa" anexa, para desarrollar posteriormente estrategias de gestión de la electricidad. El Banco de Ensayos está compuesto por tres bloques principales, interconectados entre sí:  Subsistema de Captación de Datos y Comunicación. Encargado de monitorizar los elementos energéticos y de enviar la información recopilada al Subsistema de Control. Formado por analizadores de red eléctrica, monofásicos y de continua, y una pasarela orientada a la conversión del medio físico Ethernet a RS485.  Subsistema de Control. Punto de observación y recopilación de toda la información que proviene de los elementos energéticos. Es el subsistema donde se crearán y se implementarán estrategias de control energético. Compuesto por un equipo Pxie, controlador empotrado en un chasis de gama industrial, y un equipo PC Host, compuesto por una workstation y tres monitores.  Subsistema de Energía. Formado por los elementos que generan, controlan o consumen energía eléctrica, en el Banco de Ensayos. Constituido por una pérgola FV, un inversor, un inversor bidireccional y un bloque de baterías. El último paso ha sido llevar a cabo un Ejemplo de Aplicación Práctica, con el que hemos probado que el Banco de Ensayos está listo para usarse, es operativo y completamente funcional en operaciones de monitorización de generación energética fotovoltaica y consumo energético. ABSTRACT. The current situation of the energetic market in Spain and the unstoppable increase of the tax on the part of the electrical companies, is promoting the search of alternative sources of energy that allow to the population being able to be supplied of electricity, without having to pay so high costs. To meet this need, the photovoltaic power and above all the self-consumption with injection to network, it is increasingly important inside the energetic world. It allows to the individual not only to pay less for the electricity, in addition it allows to obtain benefits for the energy generated in his own home. But the penetration of this technology in the Electrical Spanish Network has an obstacle, the distrust on the part of the operator of the electrical network, due to the photovoltaic is an intermittent source of energy, which can introduce instabilities in the system in case of high penetration. Therefore it´s necessary to reach the confidence of the electricity companies, making it a predictable energy, which provides with power to the electrical network whenever necessary and that operates taking part in the regulation of the frequency of the electric system. For such an end, the group of system investigation Photovoltaic, belonging to the IES of the UPM, there is carrying out a project of investigation named PV CROPS, financed by the European Commission, and that has for aim to develop these strategies of management. In this context, the objective of this Senior Thesis consists in implementing a Bank of Tests with Integration of Batteries in Photovoltaic Systems Connected to Network, which allows developing, testing and validating these strategies. Taking advantage of the availability to use the Digital Home installed in the EUITT of the UPM, we have mounted the bank of tests in a contiguous laboratory to use this Home as a real case of energetic consumptions of a house. This bank of tests will allow obtaining information of the energy generated by the photovoltaic installation and information of the royal consumption of the attached "house", to develop later strategies of management of the electricity. The Bank of Tests is composed by three principal blocks, interconnected each other:  Subsystem of Gathering of data and Communication. In charge of monitoring the energetic elements and sending the information compiled to the Subsystem of Control. Formed by power analyzers, AC and DC, and a gateway for the conversion of the Ethernet physical medium to RS485.  Subsystem of Control. Point of observation and compilation of all the information that comes from the energetic elements. It is the subsystem where there will be created and there will be implemented strategies of energetic control. Composed of a Pxie, controller fixed in an industrial range chassis, and a PC Host, formed by a workstation and three monitors.  Subsystem of Energy. Formed by the elements of generating, controlling or consuming electric power, in the Bank of Tests. Made of photovoltaic modules, an inverter, a twoway inverter and a batteries block. The last step has been performing an Example of Practical Application we have proved that the Bank of Tests is ready to be used, it´s operative and fully functional in monitoring operations of energetic photovoltaic generation and energetic consumption.

Wind intermittency and CO2 reductions: the case of the spanish power system

Renewable energy sources are believed to reduce drastically greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise be generated from fossil fuels used to generate electricity. This implies that a unit of renewable energy will replace a unit of fossil-fuel, with its CO2 emissions, on an equivalent basis (with no other effects on the grid). But, the fuel economy and emissions in the existing power systems are not proportional with the electricity production of intermittent sources due to cycling of the fossil fuel plants that make up the balance of the grid (i.e. changing the power output makes thermal units to operate less efficiently). This study focuses in the interactions between wind generation and thermal plants cycling, by establishing the levels of extra fuel use caused by decreased efficiencies of fossil back-up for wind electricity in Spain. We analyze the production of all thermal plants in 2011, studying different scenarios where wind penetration causes major deviations in programming, while we define a procedure for quantifying the carbon reductions by using emission factors and efficiency curves from the existing installations. The objectives are to discuss the real contributions of renewable energies to the environmental targets as well as suggest alternatives that would improve the reliability of future power systems.

Optimizing PV use through active demand side management

With recent technological developments within the field of power conditioning and the progressive decrease of incentives for PV electricity in grid-connected markets, new operation modes for PV systems should be explored beyond the traditional maximization of PV electri city feed-in. An example can be found in the domestic sector, where the use of modern PV hybrid systems combin ed with efficient electrical appliances and demand side management strategies can significantly enhance the PV value for the user. This paper presents an active demand side management system able to displace the consumer’s load curve in response to local (PV hybrid system, user) and external conditions (external grid). In this way, th e consumer becomes an “active consumer” that can also cooperate with others and the grid, increasing even more the PV value for the electrical system.

Simulación de mercado diario y previsión a 20 años del sector eléctrico peninsular

En este proyecto se crea un modelo de casación de ofertas de venta y de adquisición de energía eléctrica. Este modelo sirve para simular, de manera simplificada, el proceso de casación que tiene lugar en el mercado Diario peninsular (España y Portugal). Con el fin de averiguar el comportamiento del sector eléctrico, en este aspecto, en el futuro, se extrapolan las ofertas de adquisición según una evolución prevista de demanda y se utiliza el modelo creado para prever el mix energético y los precios de la electricidad. Esta previsión se hace en base a tres escenarios. Uno en el que hay un importante autoabastecimiento de energía eléctrica en los puntos de consumo residenciales; otro en el que el vehículo eléctrico entra de manera significativa en el parque automovilístico peninsular; y el tercero en el que las energías renovables asumen el principal peso de la cobertura de energía eléctrica. Abstract In this project a model for matching sale and purchase bids of electricity power is created. The model simulates, simplified, the process of setting energy and prices in the Daily Market of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). In order to determine the electricity sector behavior in the future, purchase bids are extrapolated following a prevision of demand and the model is used to predict the generation technologies mix and electricity prices. This forecast is based on three possible scenarios. The first one assumes significant self-supply of electricity in residential areas; the second one considers that the electric vehicle relevantly enters the peninsular fleet; the third one supposes that renewable energies cover the majority of electric energy.

Evaluación del funcionamiento de sistemas de análisis digital de imágenes - wipfrag (edición manual) y split online

En minería, la estimación de la curva granulométrica del escombro de voladura es importante para evaluar el diseño, ejecución y optimización de la misma. Para ello, actualmente se usan sistemas digitales de fotografías que obtienen dicha curva a partir de imágenes tomadas por una cámara. En este proyecto se ha analizado la fragmentación de seis voladuras realizadas en el año 2012 en la cantera “El Aljibe” situada en el término municipal de Almonacid de Toledo con un sistema automático en línea (Split Online) y con un software de otra compañía (WipFrag) que permite la edición manual de las imágenes. Han sido analizadas 120 imágenes de seis voladuras, elegidas aleatoriamente. Tras el estudio granulométrico, se observa que las curvas granulométricas obtenidas con ambos sistemas, estadísticamente, no son la misma en la mayor parte de la curva, por tanto, se analiza una posible relación entre los tamaños característicos X50 y X80, llegando a la conclusión de que ninguno de los sistemas es totalmente fiable, y es necesario calibrar los sistemas con datos de fragmentación reales obtenidos por medio de básculas. Abstract In mining, the estimate of the granulometric curve blasting debris is very important to evaluate the design, implementation and optimization of it. Currently, for the obtaining of this curves are used digital system of pictures taken by a camera. In this project, the fragmentation of six rock blasting were analyzed. The rock blastings are executed in 2012 in the quarry “El Aljibe” located in Almonacid de Toledo, with a automatic online system (Split Online) and a manual editing software (WipFrag). 120 randomly selected pictures have been analyzed. After the granulometric study, it appears that the size distribution curves obtained with both systems, statistically, are not the same, then, a possible relationship between the feature sizes X50 and X80 is analyzed, concluding that none of the systems is fully reliable, and systems must be calibrated with real data fragmentation obtained from data scales.

Modelos para el análisis dinámico y la predicción a corto plazo de los precios de la electricidad en mercados liberalizados

En esta tesis se va a describir y aplicar de forma novedosa la técnica del alisado exponencial multivariante a la predicción a corto plazo, a un día vista, de los precios horarios de la electricidad, un problema que se está estudiando intensivamente en la literatura estadística y económica reciente. Se van a demostrar ciertas propiedades interesantes del alisado exponencial multivariante que permiten reducir el número de parámetros para caracterizar la serie temporal y que al mismo tiempo permiten realizar un análisis dinámico factorial de la serie de precios horarios de la electricidad. En particular, este proceso multivariante de elevada dimensión se estimará descomponiéndolo en un número reducido de procesos univariantes independientes de alisado exponencial caracterizado cada uno por un solo parámetro de suavizado que variará entre cero (proceso de ruido blanco) y uno (paseo aleatorio). Para ello, se utilizará la formulación en el espacio de los estados para la estimación del modelo, ya que ello permite conectar esa secuencia de modelos univariantes más eficientes con el modelo multivariante. De manera novedosa, las relaciones entre los dos modelos se obtienen a partir de un simple tratamiento algebraico sin requerir la aplicación del filtro de Kalman. De este modo, se podrán analizar y poner al descubierto las razones últimas de la dinámica de precios de la electricidad. Por otra parte, la vertiente práctica de esta metodología se pondrá de manifiesto con su aplicación práctica a ciertos mercados eléctricos spot, tales como Omel, Powernext y Nord Pool. En los citados mercados se caracterizará la evolución de los precios horarios y se establecerán sus predicciones comparándolas con las de otras técnicas de predicción. ABSTRACT This thesis describes and applies the multivariate exponential smoothing technique to the day-ahead forecast of the hourly prices of electricity in a whole new way. This problem is being studied intensively in recent statistics and economics literature. It will start by demonstrating some interesting properties of the multivariate exponential smoothing that reduce drastically the number of parameters to characterize the time series and that at the same time allow a dynamic factor analysis of the hourly prices of electricity series. In particular this very complex multivariate process of dimension 24 will be estimated by decomposing a very reduced number of univariate independent of exponentially smoothing processes each characterized by a single smoothing parameter that varies between zero (white noise process) and one (random walk). To this end, the formulation is used in the state space model for the estimation, since this connects the sequence of efficient univariate models to the multivariate model. Through a novel way, relations between the two models are obtained from a simple algebraic treatment without applying the Kalman filter. Thus, we will analyze and expose the ultimate reasons for the dynamics of the electricity price. Moreover, the practical aspect of this methodology will be shown by applying this new technique to certain electricity spot markets such as Omel, Powernext and Nord Pool. In those markets the behavior of prices will be characterized, their predictions will be formulated and the results will be compared with those of other forecasting techniques.

Integración de sistemas fotovoltaicos en edificios de oficinas en bajas latitudes: estudio del balance energético aplicado a Brasil

La hipótesis que inspiró esta tesis sostiene que la integración de componentes fotovoltaicos en los cerramientos opacos y sombreamientos de huecos acristalados de edificios de oficinas en sitios ubicados en bajas latitudes, tomando como el ejemplo el caso concreto de Brasil, podría incrementar su eficiencia energética. Esta posibilidad se basa en el bloqueo de una parte significativa de la irradiación solar incidente en estos edificios, reduciendo así las cargas térmicas para la climatización y a la vez transformándola en energía eléctrica, a tal punto que se amortizan los costes de inversión en plazos aceptables a través de los ahorros en la demanda de energía. Para verificar esta hipótesis de partida se ha propuesto como objetivo general analizar la integración de elementos fotovoltaicos en cubiertas, muros opacos y sombreamiento de huecos acristalados desde la óptica del balance energético térmico y eléctrico. Inicialmente se presenta y analiza el estado del arte en los temas estudiados y la metodología de investigación, de carácter teórico basada en cálculos y simulaciones. A partir de un modelo tipo de edificio de oficinas situado en Brasil, se definen cuatro casos de estudio y una serie de parámetros, los cuales se analizan para siete latitudes ubicadas entre -1,4° y -30°, separadas las unas de las otras por aproximadamente 5°. Se presentan y discuten los resultados de más de 500 simulaciones para los siguientes conceptos: - recurso solar, desde la perspectiva de la disponibilidad de irradiación solar en distintas superficies de captación apropiadas para la integración de sistemas solares fotovoltaicos en edificaciones en bajas latitudes; - análisis de sombras, con objetivo de identificar los ángulos de sombras vertical (AVS) para protección de huecos acristalados en edificios de oficinas; - balance energético térmico, para identificar el efecto térmico del apantallamiento provocado por componentes fotovoltaicos en cubiertas, muros opacos y parasoles en ventanas en las cargas de refrigeración y consecuentemente en las demandas de energía eléctrica; - balance energético eléctrico, contrastando los resultados del balance térmico con la energía potencialmente generada en las envolventes arquitectónicas bajo estudio; - análisis económico, basado en un escenario de precios de la tecnología fotovoltaica de un mercado maduro y en la política de inyección a la red marcada por la actual normativa brasileña. Se han verificado los potenciales de ahorro económico que los sistemas activos fotovoltaicos podrían aportar, y asimismo se calculan diversos indicadores de rentabilidad financiera. En suma, esta investigación ha permitido extraer conclusiones que contribuyen al avance de la investigación y entender las condiciones que propician la viabilidad de la aplicación de componentes fotovoltaicas en las envolventes de edificios en Brasil, y hasta un cierto punto en otros países en latitudes equivalentes. ABSTRACT The hypothesis that inspired this thesis sustains that integration of photovoltaic components in the opaque envelope and shading elements of office buildings placed at low-latitude countries, using the specific case of Brazil, could increase its energy efficiency. This is possible because those components block a significant part of the incident solar irradiation, reducing its heating effect on the building and transforming its energy into electricity in such a way that the extra investments needed can be paid back in acceptable periods given the electricity bill savings they produce. In order to check this hypothesis, the main goal was to analyze the thermal and electrical performance of photovoltaic components integrated into roofs, opaque façades and window shadings. The first step is an introduction and discussion of the state of the art in the studied subjects, as well as the chosen methodology (which is theoretical), based on calculations and simulations. Starting from an office building located in Brazil, four case studies and their parameters are defined, and then analyzed, for seven cities located between latitudes -1.4° and -30°, with an approximate distance of 5° separating each one. Results of more than 500 simulations are presented and discussed for the following concepts: - Solar resource, from the perspective of irradiation availability on different surfaces for the integration of photovoltaic systems in buildings located at low latitudes; - Shading analysis, in order to determine the vertical shading angles (VSA) for protection of the glazed surfaces on office buildings; - Thermal energy balance, to identify the screening effect caused by photovoltaic components on roofs, opaque façades and window shadings on the cooling loads, and hence electricity demands; - Electric energy balance, comparing thermal energy balance with the energy potentially generated using the active skin of the buildings; - Economic analysis, based on a mature-market scenario and the current net metering rules established by the Brazilian government, to identify the potential savings these photovoltaic systems could deliver, as well as several indicators related to the return on the investment. In short, this research has led to conclusions that contribute to the further development of knowledge in this area and understanding of the conditions that favor the application of photovoltaic components in the envelope of office buildings in Brazil and, to a certain extent, in other countries at similar latitudes.