An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996-2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8-12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1-21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8-11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8-12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9-24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.

Mental health and socio-economic variations in Australian suicide

This paper investigates the relationship between suicide rates and prevalence of mental disorder and suicide attempts, across socio-economic status (SES) groups based on area of residence. Australian suicide data (1996-1998) were analysed in conjunction with area-based prevalences of mental disorder derived from the National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (1997). Poisson regression models of suicide risk included age, quintile of area-based SES, urban-rural residence, and country of birth (COB), with males and females analysed separately. Analysis focussed on the association between suicide and prevalences of (ICD-10) affective disorders, anxiety disorders, substance use disorders and suicide attempts by SES group. Prevalences of other psychiatric symptomatology, substance use problems, health service utilisation, stressful life-events and personality were also investigated. Significant increasing gradients were evident from high to low SES groups for prevalences of affective disorders, anxiety disorders (females only), and substance use disorders (males only); sub-threshold drug and alcohol problems and depression; and suicide attempts and suicide (males only). Prevalences of mental disorder, other sub-threshold mental health items and suicide attempts were significantly associated with suicide, but in most cases associations were reduced in magnitude and became statistically non-significant after adjustment for COB, urban-rural residence, and SES. For male suicide the relative risk (RR) in the lowest SES group compared to the highest was 1.40 (95% CI 1.29-1.52, p < 0.001) for all ages, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.27-1.67, p < 0.001) for male youth (20-34 years). This relationship was not substantially modified in males when regression models included prevalences of affective disorders, and other selected mental health variables and demographic factors. From a population perspective, SES remained significantly associated with suicide after controlling for the prevalence of mental disorders and other psychiatric symptomatology. Mental conditions and previous suicidal behaviour may play an intermediary role between SES and suicide, but this study suggests that an independent relationship between suicide and SES also exists. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health in Brazil 4 Chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil: burden and current challenges

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major health priority in Brazil-72% of all deaths were attributable to NCDs in 2007. They are also the main source of disease burden, with neuropsychiatric disorders being the single largest contributor. Morbidity and mortality due to NCDs are greatest in the poor population. Although the crude NCD mortality increased 5% between 1996 and 2007, age-standardised mortality declined by 20%. Declines were primarily for cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases, in association with the successful implementation of health policies that lead to decreases in smoking and the expansion of access to primary health care. Of note, however, the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension is rising in parallel with that of excess weight; these increases are associated with unfavourable changes of diet and physical activity. Brazil has implemented major policies for the prevention of NCDs, and its age-adjusted NCD mortality is falling by 1.8% per year. However, the unfavourable trends for most major risk factors pose an enormous challenge and call for additional and timely action and policies, especially those of a legislative and regulatory nature and those providing cost-effective chronic care for individuals affected by NCDs.