Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes within a paper: Possible misuse and Type-1 error inflation

In recent years an increasing number of papers have employed meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes of researchers’ own series of studies within a single paper (“internal meta-analysis”). Although this approach has the obvious advantage of obtaining narrower confidence intervals, we show that it could inadvertently inflate false-positive rates if researchers are motivated to use internal meta-analysis in order to obtain a significant overall effect. Specifically, if one decides whether to stop or continue a further replication experiment depending on the significance of the results in an internal meta-analysis, false-positive rates would increase beyond the nominal level. We conducted a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to demonstrate our argument, and provided a literature review to gauge awareness and prevalence of this issue. Furthermore, we made several recommendations when using internal meta-analysis to make a judgment on statistical significance.

Convex combinations of long memory estimates from different sampling rates

Convex combinations of long memory estimates using the same data observed at different sampling rates can decrease the standard deviation of the estimates, at the cost of inducing a slight bias. The convex combination of such estimates requires a preliminary correction for the bias observed at lower sampling rates, reported by Souza and Smith (2002). Through Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the bias and the standard deviation of the combined estimates, as well as the root mean squared error (RMSE), which takes both into account. While comparing the results of standard methods and their combined versions, the latter achieve lower RMSE, for the two semi-parametric estimators under study (by about 30% on average for ARFIMA(0,d,0) series).

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Relative rates of B meson decays into psi(2S) and J/psi mesons

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Database of diazotrophs in global ocean: abundances, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

[EN] Marine N2 fixing microorganisms, termed diazotrophs, are a key functional group in marine pelagic ecosystems. The biological fixation of dinitrogen (N2) to bioavailable nitrogen provides an important new source of nitrogen for pelagic marine ecosystems 5 and influences primary productivity and organic matter export to the deep ocean. As one of a series of efforts to collect biomass and rates specific to different phytoplankton functional groups, we have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling about 12 000 direct field measurements of cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances (based on microscopic cell counts or qPCR 10 assays targeting the nifH genes) and N2 fixation rates. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert  abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. The database is limited spatially, lacking large regions of the ocean especially in the Indian Ocean. The data are approximately log-normal distributed, and large variances exist in most sub-databases with non-zero values differing 5 to 8 orders of magnitude. 15 Lower mean N2 fixation rate was found in the North Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean. Reporting the geometric mean and the range of one geometric standard error below and above the geometric mean, the pelagic N2 fixation rate in the global ocean is estimated to be 62 (53–73) TgNyr−1 and the pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean is estimated to be 4.7 (2.3–9.6) TgC from cell counts and to 89 (40–20 200) TgC from nifH-based abundances. Uncertainties related to biomass conversion factors can change the estimate of geometric mean pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean by about ±70 %. This evolving database can be used to study spatial and temporal distributions and variations of marine N2 fixation, to validate geochemical estimates and to parameterize and validate biogeochemical models. The database is 25 stored in PANGAEA (http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.774851).

Second, do less harm: The state of states' medical error reporting programs

Statement of the problem and public health significance. Hospitals were designed to be a safe haven and respite from disease and illness. However, a large body of evidence points to preventable errors in hospitals as the eighth leading cause of death among Americans. Twelve percent of Americans, or over 33.8 million people, are hospitalized each year. This population represents a significant portion of at risk citizens exposed to hospital medical errors. Since the number of annual deaths due to hospital medical errors is estimated to exceed 44,000, the magnitude of this tragedy makes it a significant public health problem. ^ Specific aims. The specific aims of this study were threefold. First, this study aimed to analyze the state of the states' mandatory hospital medical error reporting six years after the release of the influential IOM report, "To Err is Human." The second aim was to identify barriers to reporting of medical errors by hospital personnel. The third aim was to identify hospital safety measures implemented to reduce medical errors and enhance patient safety. ^ Methods. A descriptive, longitudinal, retrospective design was used to address the first stated objective. The study data came from the twenty-one states with mandatory hospital reporting programs which report aggregate hospital error data that is accessible to the public by way of states' websites. The data analysis included calculations of expected number of medical errors for each state according to IOM rates. Where possible, a comparison was made between state reported data and the calculated IOM expected number of errors. A literature review was performed to achieve the second study aim, identifying barriers to reporting medical errors. The final aim was accomplished by telephone interviews of principal patient safety/quality officers from five Texas hospitals with more than 700 beds. ^ Results. The state medical error data suggests vast underreporting of hospital medical errors to the states. The telephone interviews suggest that hospitals are working at reducing medical errors and creating safer environments for patients. The literature review suggests the underreporting of medical errors at the state level stems from underreporting of errors at the delivery level. ^

Th and U isotopes, dose rates and ages of marine shells and sediment of core GIK14350, north Germany

The ESR dating method was applied to marine shells taken from a sediment core from Dagebüll, Schleswig-Holstein. Four samples from two different depths of the core (17.5 m and 25-26 m), separated by a 2.76 meter thick clay layer (Turritella Clay), yielded identical ages within the limits of error. They indicated an assignment to the oxygen isotope stage 5, thus confirming the stratigraphic age. In addition, the ESR-ages confirm the interpretation of Lomitschka et al. (1997, doi:10.2312/meyniana.1997.49.85), that the Th/U-ages of shells below the clay layer are reliable, whereas shells located above the clay layer, which were strongly influenced by percolating groundwaters of an open system, yielded falsified Th/U-ages.

Clearence rates by Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus determined experimentally

We studied the response in development times of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus to changes in temperature and food conditions. The ingestion response to temperature was determined in the laboratory, where the copepods C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus were fed the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii (cultivated at 18°C-20°; 12 : 12 light :dark cycle; exponential growth). C. finmarchicus was obtained for experiments from the Gullmar fjord. C. finmarchicus was incubated at in situ temperature (5°C) until the experiments were performed. First-generation cultures were grown in the laboratory at 15°C from the eggs from the Sta. L4 females. During growth both C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus cultures were fed a mixture of the cryptophyte Rhodomonas salina, the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii, and the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum. Five 600-mL glass bottles containing 1400 cells mL**-1 or 5 mg chlorophyll a (Chl a) L**-1 of T. weissflogii (200 mg C) and 1-2 C. finmarchicus or C. helgolandicus copepodite stage 5 (CV) or females were incubated in darkness at series of temperatures between 1°C and 21 ± 0.5°C. Three bottles without copepods served as control. In the C. helgolandicus experiment, T. weissflogii cells were counted at the beginning and end of the experiment in the grazing bottles and controls using a Coulter CounterH (MultisizerTM 3, Beckman Coulter). In the C. finmarchicus experiment, phytoplankton reduction was determined by Chl a measurements. The reduction in phytoplankton during any of the experiments was generally below 20% and never more than 32%. Clearance rates were calculated following Harris et al. (2000).

Age determination and grwoth rates of stalagmites and stalactites from the Okshola cave, Fauske, northern Norway

The sensitivity of terrestrial environments to past changes in heat transport is expected to be manifested in Holocene climate proxy records on millennial to seasonal timescales. Stalagmite formation in the Okshola cave near Fauske (northern Norway) began at about 10.4 ka, soon after the valley was deglaciated. Past monitoring of the cave and surface has revealed stable modern conditions with uniform drip rates, relative humidity and temperature. Stable isotope records from two stalagmites provide time-series spanning from c. 10380 yr to AD 1997; a banded, multi-coloured stalagmite (Oks82) was formed between 10380 yr and 5050 yr, whereas a pristine, white stalagmite (FM3) covers the period from ~7500 yr to the present. The stable oxygen isotope (delta18Oc), stable carbon isotope (delta13Cc), and growth rate records are interpreted as showing i) a negative correlation between cave/surface temperature and delta18Oc, ii) a positive correlation between wetness and delta13Cc, and iii) a positive correlation between temperature and growth rate. Following this, the data from Okshola show that the Holocene was characterised by high-variability climate in the early part, low-variability climate in the middle part, and high-variability climate and shifts between two distinct modes in the late part. A total of nine Scandinavian stalagmite delta18Oc records of comparable dating precision are now available for parts or most of the Holocene. None of them show a clear Holocene thermal optimum, suggesting that they are influenced by annual mean temperature (cave temperature) rather than seasonal temperature. For the last 1000 years, delta18Oc values display a depletion-enrichment-depletion pattern commonly interpreted as reflecting the conventional view on climate development for the last millennium. Although the delta18Oc records show similar patterns and amplitudes of change, the main challenges for utilising high-latitude stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives are i) the accuracy of the age models, ii) the ambiguity of the proxy signals, and iii) calibration with monitoring data.

Mass accumulation rates, age, sedimentation rate and bulk density at the East Pacific Rise

The rate at which hydrothermal precipitates accumulate, as measured by the accumulation rate of manganese, can be used to identify periods of anomalous hydrothermal activity in the past. From a preliminary study of Sites 597 and 598, four periods prior to 6 Ma of anomalously high hydrothermal activity have been identified: 8.5 to 10.5 Ma, 12 to 16 Ma, 17 to 18 Ma, and 23-to-27 Ma. The 18-Ma anomaly is the largest and is associated with the jump in spreading from the fossil Mendoza Ridge to the East Pacific Rise, whereas the 23-to-27-Ma anomaly is correlated with the birth of the Galapagos Spreading Center and resultant ridge reorganization. The 12-to-16-Ma and 8.5-to-10.5-Ma anomalies are correlated with periods of anomalously high volcanism around the rim of the Pacific Basin and may be related to other periods of ridge reorganization along the East Pacific Rise. There is no apparent correlation between periods of fast spreading at 19°S and periods of high hydrothermal activity. We thus suggest that periods when hydrothermal activity and crustal alteration at mid-ocean ridges are the most pronounced may be periods of large-scale ridge reorganization.

Physical properties and accumulation rates in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

The European Programme for Ice Coring in Antarctica includes a comprehensive pre-site survey on the inland ice plateau of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The German glaciological programme during the 1997/98 field season was carried out along a 1200 km traverse on Amundsenisen and involved sampling the snow cover in pits and by shallow firn cores. This paper focuses on the accumulation studies. The cores were dated by dielectric-profiling and continuous-flow analysis. Distinct volcanogenic peaks and seasonal signals in the profiles served to establish a depth time-scale. The eruptions of Krakatoa, Tambora, an unknown volcano, Kuwae and El Chichon are well-documented in the ice. Variations of the accumulation rates over different times were inferred from the depth time-scales. A composite record of accumulation rates for the last 200 years was produced by stacking 12 annually resolved records. According to this, accumulation rates decreased in the 19th century and increased in the 20th century. The recent values are by no means extraordinary, as they do not exceed the values at the beginning of the 19th century. Variations in accumulation rates are most probably linked to temperature variations indicated in d18O records from Amundsenisen.

Phosphorus partition and acumulation rates in sediments of ODP Legs 130 and 138

Understanding phosphorus (P) geochemistry and burial in oceanic sediments is important because of the role of P for modulating oceanic productivity on long timescales. We investigated P geochemistry in seven equatorial Pacific sites over the last 53 Ma, using a sequential extraction technique to elucidate sedimentary P composition and P diagenesis within the sediments. The dominant P-bearing component in these sediments is authigenic P (61-86% of total P), followed in order of relative dominance by iron-bound P (7-17%), organic P (3-12%), adsorbed P (2-9%), and detrital P (0-1%). Clear temporal trends in P component composition exist. Organic P decreases rapidly in younger sediments in the eastern Pacific (the only sites with high sample resolution in the younger intervals), from a mean concentration of 2.3 µmol P/g sediment in the 0-1 Ma interval to 0.4 µmol/g in the 5- 6 Ma interval. Over this same time interval, decreases are also observed for iron-bound P (from 2.1 to 1.1 µmol P/g) and adsorbed P (from 1.5 to 0.7 µmol P/g). These decreases are in contrast to increases in authigenic P (from 6.0-9.6 µmol P/g) and no significant changes in detrital P (0.1 µmol P/g) and total P (12 µmol P/g). These temporal trends in P geochemistry suggest that (1) organic matter, the principal shuttle of P to the seafloor, is regenerated in sediments and releases associated P to interstitial waters, (2) P associated with iron-rich oxyhydroxides is released to interstitial waters upon microbial iron reduction, (3) the decrease in adsorbed P with age and depth probably indicates a similar decrease in interstitial water P concentrations, and (4) carbonate fluorapatite (CFA), or another authigenic P-bearing phase, precipitates due to the release of P from organic matter and iron oxyhydroxides and becomes an increasingly significant P sink with age and depth. The reorganization of P between various sedimentary pools, and its eventual incorporation in CFA, has been recognized in a variety of continental margin environments, but this is the first time these processes have been revealed in deep-sea sediments. Phosphorus accumulation rate data from this study and others indicates that the global pre-anthropogenic input rate of P to the ocean (20x10**10 mol P/yr) is about a factor of four times higher than previously thought, supporting recent suggestions that the residence time of P in the oceans may be as short as 10000-20000 years.

14C sedimentation rates and benthic mixing of equatorial Pacific sediments

Carbon-14 determinations on box cores of calcareous ooze from the western and eastern equatorial Pacific suggest that patterns of mixed-layer ages, sedimentation rates, and mixed-layer thicknesses are controlled by gradients of carbonate dissolution and fertility, and by small-scale redeposition processes. Mixed-layer ages range from 3000 to 7000 years, with a mode between 4000 and 5000 years. Sedimentation rates range from 0.8 to 2.4 cm/1000 years. Mixed-layer depths, calculated according to the box model of mixing, range from 7 cm to 16 cm. Observed thicknesses are about one-fourth smaller than calculated ones.