Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Fractional order modelling of dynamic backlash

This paper studies the dynamical properties of systems with backlash and impact phenomena. This type of non-linearity can be tackled in the perspective of the fractional calculus theory. Fractional and integer order models are compared and their influence upon the emerging dynamics is analysed. It is demonstrated that fractional models can memorize dynamical effects due to multiple micro-collisions.

Railway vehicle modelling for the vehicle-track interaction compatibility analysis

Railway vehicle homologation, with respect to running dynamics, is addressed via dedicated norms. The results required, such as, accelerations and/or wheel-rail contact forces, obtained from experimental tests or simulations, must be available. Multibody dynamics allows the modelling of railway vehicles and their representation in real operations conditions, being the realism of the multibody models greatly influenced by the modelling assumptions. In this paper, two alternative multibody models of the Light Rail Vehicle 2000 (LRV) are constructed and simulated in a realistic railway track scenarios. The vehicle-track interaction compatibility analysis consists of two stages: the use of the simplified method described in the norm "UIC 518-Testing and Approval of Railway Vehicles from the Point of View of their Dynamic Behaviour-Safety-Track Fatigue-Running Behaviour" for decision making; and, visualization inspection of the vehicle motion with respect to the track via dedicated tools for understanding the mechanisms involved.

Modelling a cable structure for a new wind energy production device

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica Especialização em Concepção e Produção

An exanthematic disease epidemic associated with coxsackievirus B3 infection in a day care center

An epidemic of exanthematic illness in a day care center is described. Ten children aged 7 to 13 months were affected by the illness. The exanthem was characterized by nonconfluent macular or maculopapular lesions that appeared on the face, body and limbs. Fifty percent of the infected children had fever of up to 39ºC at the beginning of the disease. Coxsackievirus B3 (CB3) was isolated from the stool of one ill child. Paired serum samples were obtained from eight ill children and six of them presented seroconversion to CB3. Antibodies to CB3 were detected at titers higher than 16 in a single serum sample collected from the other two patients. Neutralizing antibodies to CB3 were detected in 71.0% of the contact children.

Genetic structure of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C epidemic strains in South Brazil

In the present study we report the results of an analysis, based on serotyping, multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE), and ribotyping of N. meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated from patients with meningococcal disease (MD) in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and Santa Catarina (SC) States, Brazil, as the Center of Epidemiology Control of Ministry of Health detected an increasing of MD cases due to this serogroup in the last two years (1992-1993). We have demonstrated that the MD due to N.meningitidis serogroup C strains in RS and SC States occurring in the last 4 years were caused mainly by one clone of strains (ET 40), with isolates indistinguishable by serogroup, serotype, subtype and even by ribotyping. One small number of cases that were not due to an ET 40 strains, represent closely related clones that probably are new lineages generated from the ET 40 clone referred as ET 11A complex. We have also analyzed N.meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated in the greater São Paulo in 1976 as representative of the first post epidemic year in that region. The ribotyping method, as well as MEE, could provide useful information about the clonal characteristics of those isolates and also of strains isolated in south Brazil. The strains from 1976 have more similarity with the actual endemic than epidemic strains, by the ribotyping, sulfonamide sensitivity, and MEE results. In conclusion, serotyping with monoclonal antibodies (C:2b:P1.3), MEE (ET 11 and ET 11A complex), and ribotyping by using ClaI restriction enzyme (Rb2), were useful to characterize these epidemic strains of N.meningitidis related to the increased incidence of MD in different States of south Brazil. It is mostly probable that these N.meningitidis serogroup C strains have poor or no genetic corelation with 1971-1975 epidemic serogroup C strains. The genetic similarity of members of the ET 11 and ET 11A complex were confirmed by the ribotyping method by using three restriction endonucleases.

Vibrio metschnikovii among diarrheal patients during cholera epidemic in Recife Brazil

Although known since the last century, Vibrio metschnikovii was only appropriately described and recognized as a new species within the genus Vibrio in 1978. Rarely is the organism linked to human disease. Only once has V. metschnikovii been incriminated as responsible for human diarrhea, and affecting an old woman who suffered from diabetes and had a hepatoma. During the first two years of the present cholera epidemic, which reached Recife in March, 1992, we screened for vibrio nearly 4000 diarrheal fecal specimens submitted to a private clinical laboratory for detection of enteropathogenic microorganisms. Now, we report six cases of diarrhea associated with V. metschnikovii affecting individuals not suffering of any apparent underlying systemic illness.

A framework to operate transformations between distinct models differing in modelling concepts

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Molecular modelling of ABC transporters: from ATP hydrolysis to substrate transport

Dissertação para a obtenção de grau de doutor em Bioquímica pelo Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Modelling of the kinetics of municipal solid waste composting in full-scale mechanical-biological treatment plants

A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Sanitary Engineering in the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the New University of Lisbon

Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Pseudo Phase Plane and Fractional Calculus Modelling of Western Global Economic Downturn

This paper applies Pseudo Phase Plane (PPP) and Fractional Calculus (FC) mathematical tools for modeling world economies. A challenging global rivalry among the largest international economies began in the early 1970s, when the post-war prosperity declined. It went on, up to now. If some worrying threatens may exist actually in terms of possible ambitious military aggression, invasion, or hegemony, countries’ PPP relative positions can tell something on the current global peaceful equilibrium. A global political downturn of the USA on global hegemony in favor of Asian partners is possible, but can still be not accomplished in the next decades. If the 1973 oil chock has represented the beginning of a long-run recession, the PPP analysis of the last four decades (1972–2012) does not conclude for other partners’ global dominance (Russian, Brazil, Japan, and Germany) in reaching high degrees of similarity with the most developed world countries. The synergies of the proposed mathematical tools lead to a better understanding of the dynamics underlying world economies and point towards the estimation of future states based on the memory of each time series.

Reconstitution of the failure of the Fonte Santa mine tailings dam. Modelling of the dam breaching process

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Estruturas e Geotecnia

A Fractional Perspective to the Bond Graph Modelling of World Economies

Inspired in dynamic systems theory and Brewer’s contributions to apply it to economics, this paper establishes a bond graph model. Two main variables, a set of inter-connectivities based on nodes and links (bonds) and a fractional order dynamical perspective, prove to be a good macro-economic representation of countries’ potential performance in nowadays globalization. The estimations based on time series for 50 countries throughout the last 50 decades confirm the accuracy of the model and the importance of scale for economic performance.