Standard errors and covariance matrices for smoothed rank estimators

A 'pseudo-Bayesian' interpretation of standard errors yields a natural induced smoothing of statistical estimating functions. When applied to rank estimation, the lack of smoothness which prevents standard error estimation is remedied. Efficiency and robustness are preserved, while the smoothed estimation has excellent computational properties. In particular, convergence of the iterative equation for standard error is fast, and standard error calculation becomes asymptotically a one-step procedure. This property also extends to covariance matrix calculation for rank estimates in multi-parameter problems. Examples, and some simple explanations, are given.

The role of comfort in child restraint use practices

Suboptimal restraint use, particularly the incorrect use of restraints, is a significant and widespread problem among child vehicle occupants, and increases the risk of injury. Previous research has identified comfort as a potential factor influencing suboptimal restraint use. Both the real comfort experienced by the child and the parent’s perception of the child’s comfort are reported to influence the optimal use of restraints. Problems with real comfort may lead the child to misuse the restraint in their attempt to achieve better comfort whilst parent-perceived discomfort has been reported as a driver for premature graduation and inappropriate restraint choice. However, this work has largely been qualitative. There has been no research that objectively studies either the association between real and parent-perceived comfort, or any association between comfort and suboptimal restraint use. One barrier to such studies is the absence of validated tools for quantifying real comfort in children. We aimed to develop methods to examine both real and parent-perceived comfort and examine their effects on suboptimal restraint use. We conducted online parent surveys (n=470) to explore what drives parental perceptions of their child’s comfort in restraint systems (study 1) and used data from field observation studies (n=497) to examine parent-perceived comfort and its relationship with observed restraint use (study 2). We developed methods to measure comfort in children in a laboratory setting (n=14) using video analysis to estimate a Discomfort Avoidance Behaviour (DAB) score, pressure mapping and adapted survey tools to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions (study 3). The DAB rate was then used to compare an integrated booster with an add-on booster (study 4) Preliminary analysis of our recent online survey of Australian parents (study 1) indicates that 23% of parents report comfort as a consideration when making a decision to change restraints. Logistic regression modelling of data collected during the field observation study (study 2) revealed that parent-perceived discomfort was not significantly associated with premature graduation. Contrary to expectation, children of parents who reported that their child was comfortable were almost twice as likely to have been incorrectly restrained (p<0.01, 95% CI 1.24 - 2.77).In the laboratory study (study 3) we found our adapted survey tools did not provide a reliable measurement of real comfort among children. However our DAB score was able to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions and correlated well with pressure mapping. Preliminary results from the laboratory comparison study (study 4) indicate a positive correlation between DAB rate and use errors. In experiments conducted to date, we have seen a significantly higher DAB rate in the integrated booster compared to the add-on booster (p < 0.01). However, this needs to be confirmed in a naturalistic setting and in further experiments that take length of time under observation into account. Our results suggest that while some parents report concern about their child’s comfort, parent-reported comfort levels were not associated with restraint choice. If comfort is important for optimal restraint use, it is likely to be the real comfort of the child rather than that reported by the parent. The method we have developed for studying real comfort can be used in naturalistic studies involving child occupants to further understand this relationship. This work will be of interest to vehicle and child restraint manufacturers interested in improving restraint design for young occupants as well as researchers and other stakeholders interested in reducing the incidence of restraint misuse among children.

The impact of inter-fraction set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complication in left-sided breast cancer patients

Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.

Driver sleepiness on YouTube: A content analysis

Driver sleepiness is a major contributor to severe crashes and fatalities on our roads. Many people continue to drive despite being aware of feeling tired. Prevention relies heavily on education campaigns as it is difficult to police driver sleepiness. The video sharing social media site YouTube is extremely popular, particularly with at risk driver demographics. Content and popularity of uploaded videos can provide insight into the quality of publicly accessible driver sleepiness information. The purpose of this research was to answer two questions; firstly, how prevalent are driver sleepiness videos on YouTube? And secondly, what are the general characteristics of driver sleepiness videos in terms of (a) outlook on driver sleepiness, (b) tone, (c) countermeasures to driver sleepiness, and, (d) driver demographics. Using a keywords search, 442 relevant videos were found from a five year period (2nd December 2009–2nd December 2014). Tone, outlook, and countermeasure use were thematically coded. Driver demographic and video popularity data also were recorded. The majority of videos portrayed driver sleepiness as dangerous. However, videos that had an outlook towards driver sleepiness being amusing were viewed more often and had more mean per video comments and likes. Humorous videos regardless of outlook, were most popular. Most information regarding countermeasures to deal with driver sleepiness was accurate. Worryingly, 39.8% of videos with countermeasure information contained some kind of ineffective countermeasure. The use of humour to convey messages about the dangers of driver sleepiness may be a useful approach in educational interventions.

The regional differences between countries in traffic safety: A cross-cultural study and Turkish Case

Road traffic accidents are a large problem everywhere in the world. However, regional differences in traffic safety between countries are considerable. For example, traffic safety records are much worse in Southern Europe and the Middle East than in Northern and Western Europe. Despite the large regional differences in traffic safety, factors contributing to different accident risk figures in different countries and regions have remained largely unstudied. The general aim of this study was to investigate regional differences in traffic safety between Southern European/Middle Eastern (i.e., Greece, Iran, Turkey) and Northern/Western European (i.e., Finland, Great Britain, The Netherlands) countries and to identify factors related to these differences. We conducted seven sub-studies in which I applied a traffic culture framework, including a multi-level approach, to traffic safety. We used aggregated level data (national statistics), surveys among drivers, and data on traffic accidents and fatalities in the analyses. In the first study, we investigated the influence of macro level factors (i.e., economic, societal, and cultural) on traffic safety across countries. The results showed that a high GNP per capita and conservatism correlated with a low number of traffic fatalities, whereas a high degree of uncertainty avoidance, neuroticism, and egalitarianism correlated with a high number of traffic fatalities. In the second, third, and fourth studies, we examined whether the conceptualisation of road user characteristics (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) varied across traffic cultures and how these factors determined overall safety, and the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results showed that the factorial agreement for driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive driving) and performance (i.e., safety skills) was unsatisfactory in Greece, Iran, and Turkey, where the lack of social tolerance and interpersonal aggressive violations seem to be important characteristics of driving. In addition, we found that driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive violations and errors) mediated the relationship between culture/country and accidents. Besides, drivers from "dangerous" Southern European countries and Iran scored higher on aggressive violations and errors than did drivers from "safe" Northern European countries. However, "speeding" appeared to be a "pan-cultural" problem in traffic. Similarly, aggressive driving seems largely depend on road users' interactions and drivers' interpretation (i.e., cognitive biases) of the behaviour of others in every country involved in the study. Moreover, in all countries, a risky general driving style was mostly related to being young and male. The results of the fifth and sixth studies showed that among young Turkish drivers, gender stereotypes (i.e., masculinity and femininity) greatly influence driver behaviour and performance. Feminine drivers were safety-oriented whereas masculine drivers were skill-oriented and risky drivers. Since everyday driving tasks involve not only erroneous (i.e., risky or dangerous driving) or correct performance (i.e., normal habitual driving), but also "positive" driver behaviours, we developed a reliable scale for measuring "positive" driver behaviours among Turkish drivers in the seventh study. Consequently, I revised Reason's model [Reason, J. T., 1990. Human error. Cambridge University Press: New York] of aberrant driver behaviour to represent a general driving style, including all possible intentional behaviours in traffic while evaluating the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results emphasise the importance of economic, societal and cultural factors, general driving style and skills, which are related to exposure, cognitive biases as well as age, sex, and gender, in differences between countries in traffic safety.

On prequantization to reduce errors in double phase holograms

Prequantization has been forwarded as a means to improve the performance of double phase holograms (DPHs). We show here that any improvement (even under the best of conditions) is not large enough to help the DPH to compete favourably with other holograms.

THE DRINKING DRIVER, A guide to the five part series ONE FOR THE ROAD

THE DRINKING DRIVER is a guide for listeners to the Adult Education radio series ONE FOR THE ROAD, a five-part series on drink-driving and Australia’s road toll. ONE FOR THE ROAD was produced by Lee Parker and Julie Levi, with assistance from the Federal Office of Road Safety in Canberra. The five programs, presented by Lee Parker were first broadcast on ABC Radio National in January 1989, and repeated on Radio National and Regional Stations across Australia in April/May 1989. THE DRINKING DRIVER was written by Mark King, Senior Project Officer with the Road Safety Division of the South Australian Department of Transport.

Look-alike, sound-alike medication errors: A novel case concerning a Slow-Na, Slow-K prescribing error

A 59-year-old man was mistakenly prescribed Slow-Na instead of Slow-K due to incorrect selection from a drop-down list in the prescribing software. This error was identified by a pharmacist during a home medicine review (HMR) before the patient began taking the supplement. The reported error emphasizes the need for vigilance due to the emergence of novel look-alike, sound-alike (LASA) drug pairings. This case highlights the important role of pharmacists in medication safety.

Constructive deviance as a driver for performance in retail

A growing body of research is concerned with deviance in the workplace. While much research has explored negative forms of deviance, we examine constructive deviance: behaviour that deviates from salient norms and benefits the reference group. We empirically explore manifestations, determinants and performance outcomes of constructive deviance in standardised work processes. We do this through a mixed-methods study in bakery trading departments of an Australian retailer. We illustrate that constructive deviance occurs in these settings and show that some manifestations of constructive deviance improve organisational performance and pave the way for applying constructive deviance as a strategic tool in retail.

Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Medication errors in residential aged care facilities: A distributed cognition analysis of the information exchange process

Background Medication safety is a pressing concern for residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies in RACF settings identify inadequate communication between RACFs, doctors, hospitals and community pharmacies as the major cause of medication errors. Existing literature offers limited insight about the gaps in the existing information exchange process that may lead to medication errors. The aim of this research was to explicate the cognitive distribution that underlies RACF medication ordering and delivery to identify gaps in medication-related information exchange which lead to medication errors in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs in Sydney, Australia. Data were generated through ethnographic field work over a period of five months (May–September 2011). Triangulated analysis of data primarily focused on examining the transformation and exchange of information between different media across the process. Results The findings of this study highlight the extensive scope and intense nature of information exchange in RACF medication ordering and delivery. Rather than attributing error to individual care providers, the explication of distributed cognition processes enabled the identification of gaps in three information exchange dimensions which potentially contribute to the occurrence of medication errors namely: (1) design of medication charts which complicates order processing and record keeping (2) lack of coordination mechanisms between participants which results in misalignment of local practices (3) reliance on restricted communication bandwidth channels mainly telephone and fax which complicates the information processing requirements. The study demonstrates how the identification of these gaps enhances understanding of medication errors in RACFs. Conclusions Application of the theoretical lens of distributed cognition can assist in enhancing our understanding of medication errors in RACFs through identification of gaps in information exchange. Understanding the dynamics of the cognitive process can inform the design of interventions to manage errors and improve residents’ safety.

The influence of the elements of procedural justice and speed camera enforcement on young novice driver self-reported speeding

Road policing is an important tool used to modify road user behaviour. While other theories, such as deterrence theory, are significant in road policing, there may be a role for using procedural justice as a framework to improve outcomes in common police citizen interactions such as traffic law enforcement. This study, using a sample of 237 young novice drivers, considered how the four elements of procedural justice (voice, neutrality, respect and trustworthiness) were perceived in relation to two forms of speed enforcement: point-to-point (or average) speed and mobile speed cameras. Only neutrality was related to both speed camera types suggesting that it may be possible to influence behaviour by emphasising one or more elements, rather than using all components of procedural justice. This study is important as it indicates that including at least some elements of procedural justice in more automated policing encounters can encourage citizen compliance.

Young driver perceptions of police traffic enforcement and self reported driving offences

Purpose Road policing is a key method used to improve driver compliance with road laws. However, we have a very limited understanding of the perceptions of young drivers regarding police enforcement of road laws. This paper addresses this gap. Design/Methodology/Approach Within this study 238 young drivers from Queensland, Australia, aged 17-24 years (M = 18, SD = 1.54), with a provisional (intermediate) driver’s licence completed an online survey regarding their perceptions of police enforcement and their driver thrill seeking tendencies. This study considered whether these factors influenced self-reported transient (e.g., travelling speed) and fixed (e.g., blood alcohol concentration) road violations by the young drivers. Findings The results indicate that being detected by police for a traffic offence, and the frequency with which they display P-plates on their vehicle to indicate their licence status, are associated with both self-reported transient and fixed rule violations. Licence type, police avoidance behaviours and driver thrill seeking affected transient rule violations only, while perceptions of police enforcement affected fixed rule violations only. Practical implications This study suggests that police enforcement of young driver violations of traffic laws may not be as effective as expected and that we need to improve the way in which police enforce road laws for young novice drivers. Originality/value: This paper identifies that perceptions of police enforcement by young drivers does not influence all types of road offences.

Factors associated with self-reported driver sleepiness and incidents in city bus drivers

Driver fatigue has received increased attention during recent years and is now considered to be a major contributor to approximately 15–30% of all crashes. However, little is known about fatigue in city bus drivers. It is hypothesized that city bus drivers suffer from sleepiness, which is due to a combination of working conditions, lack of health and reduced sleep quantity and quality. The overall aim with the current study is to investigate if severe driver sleepiness, as indicated by subjective reports of having to fight sleep while driving, is a problem for city based bus drivers in Sweden and if so, to identify the determinants related to working conditions, health and sleep which contribute towards this. The results indicate that driver sleepiness is a problem for city bus drivers, with 19% having to fight to stay awake while driving the bus 2–3 times each week or more and nearly half experiencing this at least 2–4 times per month. In conclusion, severe sleepiness, as indicated by having to fight sleep during driving, was common among the city bus drivers. Severe sleepiness correlated with fatigue related safety risks, such as near crashes.