Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Comparison of trends in method-specific suicide rates in Australia and England & Wales, 1968-97

Objective: To compare secular trends in method-specific suicide rates among young people in Australia and England & Wales between 1968 and 1997. Methods: Australian data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and for England & Wales from the Office for National Statistics. Overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-34 year old males and females were calculated using ICD codes E950-9 and E980-9 except E988.8. Results: In both settings, suicide rates have almost doubled in young males over the past 30 years (from 16.8 to 32.9 per 100,000 in Australia and from 10.1 to 19.0 in England & Wales). Overall rates have changed little in young females. In both sexes and in both settings there have been substantial increases in suicide by hanging (5-7 fold increase in Australia and four-fold increase in England & Wales). There have also been smaller increases in gassing in the 1980s and '90s. In females, the impact of these increases on overall rates has been offset by a decline in drug overdose, the most common method in females. Conclusions: Rates of male suicide have increased substantially in both settings in recent years, and hanging has become an increasingly common method of suicide. The similarity in observed trends in both settings supports the view that such changes may have common causes. Research should focus on understanding why hanging has increased in popularity and what measures may be taken to diminish it.

Concentration-effect relationship of hydroxychloroquine in patients with rheumatoid arthritis - A prospective, dose ranging study

Objective. A 6 month prospective randomized double blind study was conducted to investigate hydroxychloroquine dose concentration-effect relationships in people with rheumatoid arthritis. Methods. Patients were randomized in 2 groups: one group received 200 mg hydroxychloroquine sulfate daily (A) and one group received 400 mg daily (B). Each month, 8 disease variables were assessed, adverse events recorded, and hydroxychloroquine blood concentrations determined. Results. Twenty-three patients were included: 10 in group A and 13 in group B. After 6 months of therapy, a significant improvement in disease activity was noted for 6 criteria with no statistical differences between groups: pain (assessed by a visual analog scale), joint scores (swelling and tenderness), impairment in daily Living activity (18 activities graded 0 to 8), patient assessment of disease state, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. Hydroxychloroquine steady-state blood concentrations (Month 6) were significantly different between groups (mean +/- SD): 450.6 +/- 285.3 ng/ml (A) vs 870.3 +/- 329.3 ng/ml(B) (p = 0.0001). Steady-state concentrations were correlated with the daily dose (r = 0.63, p = 0.005), the improvement in activity of daily living (r = 0.49, p = 0.03), and the improvement in joint tenderness score (r = 0.47, p = 0.038). Conclusion. The data indicate that hydroxychloroquine is an effective therapy, but there were no further improvements observed in the group receiving 400 mg daily compared to those receiving 200 mg. There were some correlations between hydroxychloroquine steady-state blood concentrations and effects.

Numerical modelling of double diffusion driven reactive flow transport in deformable fluid-saturated porous media with particular consideration of temperature-dependent chemical reaction rates

Numerical methods ave used to solve double diffusion driven reactive flow transport problems in deformable fluid-saturated porous media. in particular, thp temperature dependent reaction rate in the non-equilibrium chemical reactions is considered. A general numerical solution method, which is a combination of the finite difference method in FLAG and the finite element method in FIDAP, to solve the fully coupled problem involving material deformation, pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and species transport/chemical reactions in deformable fluid-saturated porous media has been developed The coupled problem is divided into two subproblems which are solved interactively until the convergence requirement is met. Owing to the approximate nature of the numerical method, if is essential to justify the numerical solutions through some kind of theoretical analysis. This has been highlighted in this paper The related numerical results, which are justified by the theoretical analysis, have demonstrated that the proposed solution method is useful for and applicable to a wide range of fully coupled problems in the field of science and engineering.

Exposure of rats to a high but not low dose of ethanol during early postnatal life increases the rate of loss of optic nerve axons and decreases the rate of myelination

Visual system abnormalities are commonly encountered in the fetal alcohol syndrome although the level of exposure at which they become manifest is uncertain. In this study we have examined the effects of either low (ETLD) or high dose (ETHD) ethanol, given between postnatal days 4-9, on the axons of the rat optic nerve. Rats were exposed to ethanol vapour in a special chamber for a period of 3 h per day during the treatment period. The blood alcohol concentration in the ETLD animals averaged similar to 171 mg/dl and in the ETHD animals similar to 430 mg/dl at the end of the treatment on any given day. Groups of 10 and 30-d-old mother-reared control (MRC), separation control (SC), ETLD and ETHD rats were anaesthetised with an intraperitoneal injection or ketamine and xylazine, and killed by intracardiac perfusion with phosphate-buffered glutaraldehyde. In the 10-d-old rat optic nerves there was a total of similar to 145000-165000 axons in MRC, SC and ETLD animals. About 4 % of these fibres were myelinated. The differences between these groups were not statistically significant. However, the 10-d-old ETHD animals had only about 75000 optic nerve axone (P < 0.05) of which about 2.8 % were myelinated. By 30 d of age there was a total of between 75000 90000 optic nerve axons, irrespective of the group examined. The proportion of axons which were myelinated at this age was still significantly lower (P < 0.001) in the ETHD animals (similar to 77 %) than in the other groups (about 98 %). It is concluded that the normal stages of development and maturation of the rat optic nerve axons, as assessed in this study, can be severely compromised by exposure to a relatively high (but not low) dose of ethanol between postnatal d 4 and 9.

The anti-tumor activity of IL-12: Mechanisms of innate immunity that are model and dose dependent

IL-12 has been demonstrated to have potent anti-tumor activities in a variety of mouse tumor models, but the relative roles of NK, NKT, and T cells and their effector mechanisms in these responses have not been fully addressed. Using a spectrum of gene-targeted or Ab-treated mice we have shown that for any particular tumor model the effector mechanisms downstream of IL-12 often mimic the natural immune response to that tumor. For example, metastasis of the MHC class I-deficient lymphoma, EL4-S3, was strictly controlled by NK cells using perforin either naturally or following therapy with high-dose IL-12. Intriguingly, in B16F10 and RM-1 tumor models both NK and NKT cells contribute to natural protection from tumor metastasis, In these models, a lower dose of IL-12 or delayed administration of IL-12 dictated a greater relative role of NKT cells in immune protection from tumor metastasis. Overall, both NK and NKT cells can contribute to natural and IL-12-induced immunity against tumors, and the relative role of each population is turner and therapy dependent.

Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Variation in mortality rates in Australia: correlation with Indigenous status, remoteness and socio-economic deprivation

Background The aim of this study was to study ecological correlations between age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Australian statistical divisions and (1) the proportion of residents that self-identify as Indigenous, (2) remoteness, and (3) socio-economic deprivation. Methods All-cause mortality rates for 57 statistical divisions were calculated and directly standardized to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. The proportion of residents who self-identified as Indigenous was obtained from the 1996 Census. Remoteness was measured using ARIA (Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia) values. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using SEIFA (Socio-Economic index for Australia) values from the ABS. Results Age-standardized all-cause mortality varies twofold from 5.7 to 11.3 per 1000 across Australian statistical divisions. Strongest correlation was between Indigenous status and mortality (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). correlation between remoteness and mortality was modest (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) as was correlation between socio-economic deprivation and mortality (r = -0.42, p = 0.001). Excluding the three divisions with the highest mortality, a multiple regression model using the logarithm of the adjusted mortality rate as the dependent variable showed that the partial correlation (and hence proportion of the variance explained) for Indigenous status was 0.03 (9 per cent; p = 0.03), for SEIFA score was -0.17 (3 per cent; p = 0.22); and for remoteness was -0.22 (5 per cent; p = 0.13). Collectively, the three variables studied explain 13 per cent of the variability in mortality. Conclusions Ecological correlation exists between all-cause mortality, Indigenous status, remoteness and disadvantage across Australia. The strongest correlation is with indigenous status, and correlation with all three characteristics is weak when the three statistical divisions with the highest mortality rates are excluded. intervention targeted at these three statistical divisions could reduce much of the variability in mortality in Australia.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

Decreased perinatal sunshine duration is associated with increased non-affective but not affective psychosis birth rates

We have previously found an association between variations in schizophrenia birth rates and varyinglevels of perinatal sunshine duration. This study examines whether such an association can also be found for Ža. affective psychosis, and Žb. broadly defined nonaffective psychoses. Data for individuals born between 1931 and 1970 in Australia with ICD9 Other PsychosisŽ295–299.were obtained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System. ‘Affective psychosis’ included affective psychosis, schizo-affective psychosis, and depressive and excitative non-organic psychoses. ‘Non-affective psychosis’ included chizophrenia, paranoid disorders and other non-organic psychoses. Those receiving both affective and non-affective psychotic diagnoses were excluded. Rates per 10,000 live monthly general population births were calculated. For each month, we assessed the agreementŽusing the kappa statistic. between trends in Ža. birth rates and Žb. long-term trends in seasonally adjusted perinatal sunshine duration. The analyses were performed separately for males and females. There were 6265 with non-affective psychosis ŽMs3964 rate 66r10,000; Fs2299 44r10,000. and 2858 with affective psychosisŽMs1392 24r10,000; Fs1466 28r10,000.. There were no significant associations between Ža. affective psychosis birth rates for either males or females and Žb. sunshine duration. There was a significant association between nonaffective psychosis birth rates for males only and Žb. sunshine duration Žkappas0.15 p-0.001.. This suggests that, as a risk factor, the effect of reduced perinatal sunshine is specifically associated with males who develop non-affective psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.