The role of index trading in price formation in the grains and oilseeds markets

We use both Granger-causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger-causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV-based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.

Alternative Identities and Foreign Language Learning

My D-essay has the working title “Alternative Identities and Foreign Language Learning”. I have chosen this area because I have noticed a certain reluctance among Swedish students to use the foreign language English in English classes. They often seem embarrassed to express themselves in a language which is not their mother tongue, but they seem less embarrassed when they are allowed to act somebody else. These two observations converge into a focus of discussion on the matter, which will be supported by a minor study of my own, by extracts from other people’s essays on the matter, and by an overview of current litterature on language, identity and drama.The aim of my essay is to compare Swedish students’ willingness to use the foreign language English when acting minor plays in school, as themselves and as a chosen character, and to investigate the possibility of improving students’ willingness to use a foreign language, when given the opportunity to do so through acting somebody else.

Mercado brasileiro de medicamentos genéricos: análise do desemprenho de uma subsidiária de laboratório estrangeiro

The pharmaceutical industry is a segment that is dominated by transnational companies. This characteristic is visible in Brazil, where there are only three domestic laboratories in the top ten pharmaceutical companies list. From the 1970s onwards, the world pharmaceutical market went through deep changes caused mainly to the increase of regulatory control and patent expiration that led to the advent of generic medicaments. In 1999, it was published the law that allowed the introduction of generic medicaments in Brazil, creating a new market that is currently dominated by domestic laboratories. This dissertation proposes to identify the reasons for a subsidiary of foreign laboratory does not achieve the leadership of this market. The literature is based on international political economy and international business concepts that means, relations between subsidiary and head office, domestic and foreign companies and government. Four propositions are presented and tested through multiple sources of evidences. The empirical research was mainly grounded in interviews with key persons and participant observation that allowed access to information, which would be not available for scientific investigation. The results indicate that the relationships considered in this study affect the subsidiary performance in generic medicament market in regard to its ability to make decisions, price competitiveness and wide portfolio creation. The respondents considered those three aspects as success critical factors. The results can be used for future research, aiming to wide the focus of the study about domestic laboratory dominance in generic medicament markets. Another suggestion is to follow this market evolution regarding to the internationalization process of domestic laboratories.

Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

A atividade do capital estrangeiro na Bovespa

Este trabalho discute a recente evolução e a crescente importância do investimento estrangeiro no mercado de capitais brasileiro, observando como a sua presença afeta e é influenciada pela dinâmica local. Como primeiro achado, destaca-se a reatividade desses agentes ao mercado quanto às vendas de ativos; ao investigar se esse comportamento concorreria para um ambiente mais volátil e, em um cenário mais adverso, a própria desestabilização dos preços, constatou-se que suas compras mitigariam o efeito, mas que suas vendas operariam o oposto, sendo que em condições normais de mercado a demanda excessiva dos estrangeiros pressionaria significativamente os preços. Determinou-se também a importância dos mercados externos, das taxas básicas de juros interna e externa, da taxa de câmbio local e da liquidez do mercado à vista como fatores de estímulo a novas compras desses atores, assim como do câmbio, investimento direto líquido, risco país e liquidez para explicar as vendas adicionais. Por fim, surgiram como determinantes à entrada líquida de recursos estrangeiros na Bovespa o desempenho promissor dos mercados externos desenvolvidos e os juros locais em queda, sendo que o desenvolvimento bursátil local e um eventual cenário de crise seriam particularmente significativos na dinâmica de internalização de recursos no país.

Análise dos determinantes dos spreads soberanos dos países emergentes

O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar os efeitos da crise financeira recente sobre os spreads dos títulos soberanos dos países emergentes. Os resultados corroboram a visão de que a atual crise financeira teve um impacto significativo sobre a percepção de risco dos países emergentes, elevando o prêmio de risco. A taxa de crescimento da economia, a taxa de câmbio real, as reservas internacionais, as dívidas interna e externa e o VIX também afetaram significativamente os spreads soberanos. Por fim, mostramos que a percepção de risco do Brasil foi menos afetada pela crise que nos demais países emergentes.

Títulos de dívida corporativa de empresas brasileiras: investir em emissões do mercado interno ou externo?

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a diferença de rentabilidade entre emissões de títulos de dívida corporativa de empresas brasileiras nos mercados local e externo. Sob a ótica do investidor interessado em comprar esses títulos, busca-se responder se, protegendo-se contra oscilações de fatores como câmbio e juros e controlando pelo prazo de vencimento, seria mais rentável em média adquirir um título local (debênture) ou externo (bond) de um mesmo emissor. Para isso, analisamos 177 emissões de debêntures e 119 emissões de bonds de 31 companhias não financeiras brasileiras no período entre janeiro de 2004 e abril de 2013. Regressões em painel com efeitos fixos para controlar pelas características de cada emissor verificam que, em média, o título do mercado externo paga de 164 a 197 bps a mais que o do mercado local, e que tal diferença é estatisticamente significante. A diferença deve-se à maior oferta e variedade de títulos de dívida corporativa no mercado externo, à existência de uma demanda cativa de investidores institucionais por debêntures no mercado local e à falta de integração entre os mercados. A participação de pessoas físicas no mercado externo também é identificada como fator relevante, assim como o possível maior custo de estruturação de dívida cobrado por bancos de investimento no mercado doméstico. Dentre as hipóteses formuladas para o motivo dessa diferença de rentabilidade não ser arbitrada, destacam-se o desconhecimento dos investidores e obstáculos operacionais, como custos de transação, impossibilidade de operação no mercado internacional e de venda a descoberto no mercado local. Tal fato causa ainda uma supervalorização das debêntures pela atuação dos investidores mais otimistas. A alta sensibilidade dos investidores institucionais locais à volatilidade dos retornos, também aparece como fator relevante.

Density of sand flies (diptera: psychodidae) in domestic and wild animal shelters in an area of visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

XIMENES, Maria de Fátima Freire de Melo; SOUZA, Maria de Fátima de; CASTELLON, Eloy Guilhermo. Density of sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in domestic and wild animal shelters in an area of visceral Leishmaniasis in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, v.94, n.4, p.427-432, jul./ago. 1999. Disponivel em: Acesso em: 4 out. 2010.

Genetic relatedness among wild, domestic and Brazilian fighting roosters

Except for the meat- and egg-type strains used in commercial poultry farms in Brazil, there are no scientific reports about the origin of birds from the genus Gallus that have been introduced in this country with domestication or fighting purposes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify the position of the Brazilian Game Bird in the phylogenetic tree of the genus Gallus by nucleotide sequence analysis of the mitochondrial DNA D-loop region. The results indicate that fighting roosters comprise two different clusters within the species Gallus gallus domesticus. One of the clusters is related to the wild ancestors, while the other one is more related to the birds raised by the poultry industry. In conclusion, Brazilian fighting roosters have originated from the red jungle fowl (Gallus gallus) and belong to the subspecies Gallus gallus domesticus.

Giardia survey in live-trapped small domestic and wild mammals in four regions in the southwest region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

For the first time, a survey on Giardia in the live-trapped small domestic and wild mammals was perfomed in four regions of state of the São Paulo, Brazil, with special attention to the parasitism of Rattus rattus rattus by Giardia. This species was found infected in all studied sites: Botucatu (15.4%), Conchas (28.5%), Itaporanga (38.7%) and São Roque (100 %). Two new hosts and their frequency of infection were described for Giardia in Nectomys squamipes, an aquatic rodent and in Bolomys lasiurus, a forest rodent (100 % and 14.3 %, respectively). Both G. muris and G. duodenalis groups were found in scrapings of intestinal mucosa of those rodents. Mixed infection was observed in some animals. It is important to emphasize the infection by G. duodenalis in the black rat as this species lives as a comensal with man and in N. squamipes as it may contaminate small streams used for domestic consumption. Therefore, further investigation will be necessary to elucidate the potential of these rodents to act as reservoirs of Giardia for man.

Investment and economic reform in Latin America

Includes bibliography

World inflation and foreign debt: the case of the improper deflator

Includes bibliography