914 resultados para Distorted probabilities


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Conducting dielectric samples are often used in high-resolution experiments at high held. It is shown that significant amplitude and phase distortions of the RF magnetic field may result from perturbations caused by such samples. Theoretical analyses demonstrate the spatial variation of the RF field amplitude and phase across the sample, and comparisons of the effect are made for a variety of sample properties and operating field strengths. Although the effect is highly nonlinear, it tends to increase with increasing field strength, permittivity, conductivity, and sample size. There are cases, however, in which increasing the conductivity of the sample improves the homogeneity of the amplitude of the RF field across the sample at the expense of distorted RF phase. It is important that the perturbation effects be calculated for the experimental conditions used, as they have the potential to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio of NMR experiments and may increase the generation of spurious coherences. The effect of RF-coil geometry on the coherences is also modeled, with the use of homogeneous resonators such as the birdcage design being preferred, Recommendations are made concerning methods of reducing sample-induced perturbations. Experimental high-field imaging and high-resolution studies demonstrate the effect. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

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The Zn-II atom in [Zn(C2H8N2)(3)](NO3)(2) has a distorted octahedral geometry of D-3 symmetry With three ethylenediamine bidentate Ligands completing the coordination.

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Using the method of quantum trajectories we show that a known pure state can be optimally monitored through time when subject to a sequence of discrete measurements. By modifying the way that we extract information from the measurement apparatus we can minimize the average algorithmic information of the measurement record, without changing the unconditional evolution of the measured system. We define an optimal measurement scheme as one which has the lowest average algorithmic information allowed. We also show how it is possible to extract information about system operator averages from the measurement records and their probabilities. The optimal measurement scheme, in the limit of weak coupling, determines the statistics of the variance of the measured variable directly. We discuss the relevance of such measurements for recent experiments in quantum optics.

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Background Collagen V shows promise as an inducer of interstitial lung fibrosis in experimental systemic sclerosis (SSc). Materials and methods Remodelling of the pulmonary interstitium was evaluated based on the clinical data and open lung biopsies from 15 patients with SSc. Normal lung tissues obtained from eight individuals who died of traumatic injuries were used as control group. Immunofluorescence, immunohistochemistry, morphometry, tri-dimensional reconstruction and a real-time polymerase chain reaction were used to evaluate the quantity, structure and molecular chains of collagen V. The impact of these markers was tested on clinical data. Results The main difference in collagen V content between SSc patients and the control group was an increased, abnormal and distorted fibre deposition in the alveolar septa and the pre-acinar artery wall. The lungs from SSc patients presented [alpha 1(V)] and [alpha 2(V)] mRNA chain expression increased, but [alpha 2(V)] was proportionally increased compared with the control group. High levels of collagen V were inversely associated with vital capacity (r = -0.72; P = 0.002), forced vital capacity (r = -0.76; P < 0.001), forced expiratory volume in 1-s (r = -0.89; P < 0.001) and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (r = -0.62; P = 0.04). Conclusions Abnormal collagen V fibres are overproduced in lungs from SSc patients and may play an important role in the pathogenesis of the disease as this molecule regulates tissue collagen assembly. The aberrant histoarchitecture observed in SSc can be related to the overexpression of the [alpha 2(V)] gene of unknown origin.

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Introduction: Two hundred ten patients with newly diagnosed Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) were consecutively enrolled in this prospective trial to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fluorine-18 ((18)F)-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scan in initial staging of patients with HL. Methods: All 210 patients were staged with conventional clinical staging (CCS) methods, including computed tomography (CT), bone marrow biopsy (BMB), and laboratory tests. Patients were also submitted to metabolic staging (MS) with whole-body FDG-PET scan before the beginning of treatment. A standard of reference for staging was determined with all staging procedures, histologic examination, and follow-up examinations. The accuracy of the CCS was compared with the MS. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for both strategies. Results: In the 210 patients with HL, the sensitivity for initial staging of FDG-PET was higher than that of CT and BMB in initial staging (97.9% vs. 87.3%; P < .001 and 94.2% vs. 71.4%, P < 0.003, respectively). The incorporation of FDG-PET in the staging procedure upstaged disease in 50 (24%) patients and downstaged disease in 17 (8%) patients. Changes in treatment would be seen in 32 (15%) patients. Cumulative cost for staging procedures was $3751/patient for CCS compared to $5081 for CCS + PET and $4588 for PET/CT. The ICER of PET/CT strategy was $16,215 per patient with modified treatment. PET/CT costs at the beginning and end of treatment would increase total costs of HL staging and first-line treatment by only 2%. Conclusion: FDG-PET is more accurate than CT and BMB in HL staging. Given observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost-effective in the public health care program in Brazil.

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Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

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Background: Oncologic outcomes in men with radiation-recurrent prostate cancer (PCa) treated with salvage radical prostatectomy (SRP) are poorly defined. Objective: To identify predictors of biochemical recurrence (BCR), metastasis, and death following SRP to help select patients who may benefit from SRP. Design, setting, and participants: This is a retrospective, international, multi-institutional cohort analysis. There was amedian follow-up of 4.4 yr following SRP performed on 404 men with radiation-recurrent PCa from 1985 to 2009 in tertiary centers. Intervention: Open SRP. Measurements: BCR after SRP was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) >= 0.1 or >= 0.2 ng/ml (depending on the institution). Secondary end points included progression to metastasis and cancerspecific death. Results and limitations: Median age at SRP was 65 yr of age, and median pre-SRP PSA was 4.5 ng/ml. Following SRP, 195 patients experienced BCR, 64 developed metastases, and 40 died from PCa. At 10 yr after SRP, BCR-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and cancer-specific survival (CSS) probabilities were 37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 31-43), 77% (95% CI, 71-82), and 83% (95% CI, 76-88), respectively. On preoperative multivariable analysis, pre-SRP PSA and Gleason score at postradiation prostate biopsy predicted BCR (p = 0.022; global p < 0.001) and metastasis (p = 0.022; global p < 0.001). On postoperative multivariable analysis, pre-SRP PSA and pathologic Gleason score at SRP predicted BCR (p = 0.014; global p < 0.001) and metastasis (p < 0.001; global p < 0.001). Lymph node involvement (LNI) also predicted metastasis (p = 0.017). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective design and the follow-up period. Conclusions: In a select group of patients who underwent SRP for radiation-recurrent PCa, freedom from clinical metastasis was observed in > 75% of patients 10 yr after surgery. Patients with lower pre-SRP PSA levels and lower postradiation prostate biopsy Gleason score have the highest probability of cure from SRP. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

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Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

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Double-balloon enteroscopy (DBE) is a useful method for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with Roux-en-Y anatomy. Depending on the distorted anatomy, endoscopic therapies with conventional scopes were very difficult or impossible before the advent of DBE and patients had to be submitted to a percutaneous or surgical approach. The case of 6 patients with different types of Roux-en-Y-altered anatomy in which DBE-ERCP was performed with 83.3% successful rate (5/6) is reported confirming recent data in the literature on the feasibility of this method. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

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HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

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A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

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The extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) of (ND4)(2)[CU(D2O)(6)](SO4)(2) at 5, 14,100, 200, and 298 K is reported. This indicates that the Cu-O bond lengths of the Cu(D2O)(6)(2+) ion do not change significantly within this temperature range, which contrasts with EPR results and X-ray and neutron diffraction experiments, which imply that two of the Cu-(D2O) bonds converge in length as the temperature is raised. The EXAFS measurements thus confirm that the bond distances yielded by the diffraction experiments refer to the average positions of ligands involved in a dynamic equilibrium in which the directions of the long and intermediate bonds of the Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(D2O)(6)(2+) ion are interchanged in the crystal lattice. Analysis of the displacement parameters is consistent with this interpretation, as are the wave functions calculated using a model involving Jahn-Teller vibronic coupling and the influence of lattice strain interactions.

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Skin flaps are useful where a lesion cannot be removed by simple excision without excessive tension being placed on the wound or surrounding tissues may be distorted. The H-flap and the island advancement flap are described. (non-author abstract)