Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Applications of pedigree-based genome mapping in wheat and barley breeding programs.

The aim of the pedigree-based genome mapping project is to investigate and develop systems for implementing marker assisted selection to improve the efficiency of selection and increase the rate of genetic gain in breeding programs. Pedigree-based whole genome marker application provides a vehicle for incorporating marker technologies into applied breeding programs by bridging the gap between marker-trait association and marker implementation. We report on the development of protocols for implementation of pedigree-based whole genome marker analysis in breeding programs within the Australian northern winter cereals region. Examples of applications from the Queensland DPI&F wheat and barley breeding programs are provided, commenting on the use of microsatellites and other types of molecular markers for routine genomic analysis, the integration of genotypic, phenotypic and pedigree information for targeted wheat and barley lines, the genomic impacts of strong selection pressure in case study pedigrees, and directions for future pedigree-based marker development and analysis.

Mapping species differences for adventitious rooting in a Corymbia torelliana x Corymbia citriodora subspecies variegata hybrid

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection was carried out for adventitious rooting and associated propagation traits in a second-generation outbred Corymbia torelliana x Corymbia citriodora subspecies variegata hybrid family (n=186). The parental species of this cross are divergent in their capacity to develop roots adventitiously on stem cuttings and their propensity to form lignotubers. For the ten traits studied, there was one or two QTL detected, with some QTL explaining large amounts of phenotypic variation (e.g. 66% for one QTL for percentage rooting), suggesting that major effects influence rooting in this cross. Collocation of QTL for many strongly genetically correlated rooting traits to a single region on linkage group 12 suggested pleiotropy. A three locus model was most parsimonious for linkage group 12, however, as differences in QTL position and lower genetic correlations suggested separate loci for each of the traits of shoot production and root initiation. Species differences were thought to be the major source of phenotypic variation for some rooting rate and root quality traits because of the major QTL effects and up to 59-fold larger homospecific deviations (attributed to species differences) relative to heterospecific deviations (attributed to standing variation within species) evident at some QTL for these traits. A large homospecific/heterospecific ratio at major QTL suggested that the gene action evident in one cross may be indicative of gene action more broadly in hybrids between these species for some traits.

Design studio terrains: Mapping the learning landscapes of Australian architectural education

It has been nearly 25 years since the problems associated with passive learning in large undergraduate classes were first established by McDermott (1991). STEM education, for example North Carolina State University’s SCALE-UP project, has subsequently been influenced by some unique aspects of design studio education. While there are now many institutions applying SCALE-UP or similar approaches to enable lively interaction, enhanced learning, increased student engagement, and to teach many different content areas to classes of all sizes, nearly all of these have remained in the STEM fields (Beichner, 2008). Architectural education, although originally at the forefront of this field, has arguably been left behind. Architectural practice is undergoing significant change, globally. Access to new technology and the development of specialised architectural documentation software has scaffolded new building procurement methods and allowed consultant teams to work more collaboratively, efficiently and even across different time zones. Up until recently, the spatial arrangements, pedagogical approaches, and project work outcomes in the architectural design studio, have not been dissimilar to its inception. It is not possible to keep operating architectural design studios the same way that they have for the past two hundred years, with this new injection of high-end technology and personal mobile Wi-Fi enabled devices. Employing a grounded theory methodology, this study reviews the current provision of architectural design learning terrains across a range of tertiary institutions, in Australia. Some suggestions are provided for how these spaces could be modified to address the changing nature of the profession, and implications for how these changes may impact the design of future SCALE-UP type spaces outside of the discipline of architecture, are also explored.

Confirmation of QTL mapping and marker validation for partial seedling resistance to crown rot in wheat line '2-49'

We have tested the efficacy of putative microsatellite single sequence repeat (SSR) markers, previously identified in a 2-49 (Gluyas Early/Gala) × Janz doubled haploid wheat (Triticum aestivum) population, as being linked to partial seedling resistance to crown rot disease caused by Fusarium pseudograminearum. The quantitative trait loci (QTLs) delineated by these markers have been tested for linkage to resistance in an independent Gluyas Early × Janz doubled haploid population. The presence of a major QTL on chromosome 1DL (QCr.usq-1D1) and a minor QTL on chromosome 2BS (QCr.usq-2B1) was confirmed. However, a putative minor QTL on chromosome 2A was not confirmed. The QTL on 1D was inherited from Gluyas Early, a direct parent of 2-49, whereas the 2B QTL was inherited from Janz. Three other putative QTLs identified in 2-49 × Janz (on 1AL, 4BL, and 7BS) were inherited by 2-49 from Gala and were not able to be confirmed in this study. The screening of SSR markers on a small sample of elite wheat genotypes indicated that not all of the most tightly linked SSR markers flanking the major QTLs on 1D and 1A were polymorphic in all backgrounds, indicating the need for additional flanking markers when backcrossing into some elite pedigrees. Comparison of SSR haplotypes with those of other genotypes exhibiting partial crown rot resistance suggests that additional, novel sources of crown rot resistance are available.

High resolution genetic and physical mapping of the I-3 region of tomato chromosome 7 reveals almost continuous microsynteny with grape chromosome 12 but interspersed microsynteny with duplications on Arabidopsis chromosomes 1, 2 and 3

The tomato I-3 gene introgressed from the Lycopersicon pennellii accession LA716 confers resistance to race 3 of the fusarium wilt pathogen Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici. We have improved the high-resolution map of the I-3 region of tomato chromosome 7 with the development and mapping of 31 new PCR-based markers. Recombinants recovered from L. esculentum cv. M82 × IL7-2 F2 and (IL7-2 × IL7-4) × M82 TC1F2 mapping populations, together with recombinants recovered from a previous M82 × IL7-3 F2 mapping population, were used to position these markers. A significantly higher recombination frequency was observed in the (IL7-2 × IL7-4) × M82 TC1F2 mapping population based on a reconstituted L. pennellii chromosome 7 compared to the other two mapping populations based on smaller segments of L. pennellii chromosome 7. A BAC contig consisting of L. esculentum cv. Heinz 1706 BACs covering the I-3 region has also been established. The new high-resolution map places the I-3 gene within a 0.38 cM interval between the molecular markers RGA332 and bP23/gPT with an estimated physical size of 50-60 kb. The I-3 region was found to display almost continuous microsynteny with grape chromosome 12 but interspersed microsynteny with Arabidopsis thaliana chromosomes 1, 2 and 3. An S-receptor-like kinase gene family present in the I-3 region of tomato chromosome 7 was found to be present in the microsyntenous region of grape chromosome 12 but was absent altogether from the A. thaliana genome.

DArT markers: Diversity analyses and mapping in Sorghum bicolor

The sequential nature of gel-based marker systems entails low throughput and high costs per assay. Commonly used marker systems such as SSR and SNP are also dependent on sequence information. These limitations result in high cost per data point and significantly limit the capacity of breeding programs to obtain sufficient return on investment to justify the routine use of marker-assisted breeding for many traits and particularly quantitative traits. Diversity Arrays Technology (DArT™) is a cost effective hybridisation-based marker technology that offers a high multiplexing level while being independent of sequence information. This technology offers sorghum breeding programs an alternative approach to whole-genome profiling. We report on the development, application, mapping and utility of DArT™ markers for sorghum germplasm. Results: A genotyping array was developed representing approximately 12,000 genomic clones using PstI+BanII complexity with a subset of clones obtained through the suppression subtractive hybridisation (SSH) method. The genotyping array was used to analyse a diverse set of sorghum genotypes and screening a Recombinant Inbred Lines (RIL) mapping population. Over 500 markers detected variation among 90 accessions used in a diversity analysis. Cluster analysis discriminated well between all 90 genotypes. To confirm that the sorghum DArT markers behave in a Mendelian manner, we constructed a genetic linkage map for a cross between R931945-2-2 and IS 8525 integrating DArT and other marker types. In total, 596 markers could be placed on the integrated linkage map, which spanned 1431.6 cM. The genetic linkage map had an average marker density of 1/2.39 cM, with an average DArT marker density of 1/3.9 cM. Conclusion: We have successfully developed DArT markers for Sorghum bicolor and have demonstrated that DArT provides high quality markers that can be used for diversity analyses and to construct medium-density genetic linkage maps. The high number of DArT markers generated in a single assay not only provides a precise estimate of genetic relationships among genotypes, but also their even distribution over the genome offers real advantages for a range of molecular breeding and genomics applications.

Mapping and characterisation of the inter-reefal benthic assemblages of the Torres Strait

A comprehensive survey of the benthic assemblages of the Torres Strait was conducted in order to provide critical baseline information for regional marine planning, assessing the environmental sustainability of fisheries and understanding the ecosystems of the region. Over 150 sites throughout the region were sampled with a modified prawn trawl, towed underwater video, pipe dredge and epibenthic sled. This manuscript provides a broad overview of the activities undertaken and data collected. Two thousand three hundred and seventy-two different nominal species were sampled by the trawl and sled, only 728 by both gears. The towed video was not able to provide the same level of taxonomic resolution of epibenthic taxa, but was particularly useful in areas where the seabed was too rough to be sampled. Data from the trawl, sled and video were combined to characterise the epibenthic assemblages of the region. Data from the towed video was also used to provide a characterisation of the inter-reefal benthic habitats, which was then analysed in combination with physical covariate data to examine relationships between the two. Levels of mud and gravel in the sediments, trawling effort and seabed current stress were the covariates most significantly correlated with the nature of the seabed habitats.

Mapping quantitative trait loci for resistance to Pratylenchus thornei from synthetic hexaploid wheat in the International Triticeae Mapping Initiative (ITMI) population

Root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) is a serious pathogen of wheat in many countries. The International Triticeae Mapping Initiative (ITMI) population of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was assessed for resistance to P. thornei to determine the chromosome locations of the resistance genes. The ITMI population is derived from a cross between the resistant synthetic hexaploid wheat W-7984 and a susceptible bread wheat cultivar Opata 85. Two years of phenotypic data for resistance to P. thornei were obtained in replicated glasshouse trials. Quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis was performed using available segregation and map data for 114 RILs. A QTL on chromosome 6DS showed consistent effects for reduced nematode numbers (partial resistance) across years and accounted for 11% and 23% of the phenotypic variation. A second QTL for P. thornei resistance on chromosome 2BS accounted for an additional 19% and 5%. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers associated with the QTLs are physically located in regions rich in major genes at the distal ends of the short chromosome arms of 6D and 2B. SSR markers with potential for marker-assisted selection of P. thornei resistance effective in different genetic backgrounds have been identified.

Isolation, characterization and mapping of temperature-sensitive mutants of mycobacteriophage I3

Eighteen temperature-sensitive mutants of mycobacteriophage I3 have been isolated and partially characterized. All the mutants were defective in vegetative replication. Based on temperature shift experiments with the temperature sensitive mutants, the thermosensitive phase of the phage development period has been characterized for each mutant. The genes have been mapped by recombination analysis. The early, continuous and middle genes seem to cluster on the genetic map

Liquefaction Hazard Mapping of Bangalore, South India

his paper presents identification and mapping of vulnerable and safe zones for liquefaction hazard. About 850 bore logs data collected from geotechnical investigation reports have been used to estimate the liquefaction factor of safety for Bangalore Mahanagara palike (BMP) area of about 220 km(2). Liquefaction factor of safety is arrived based on surface level peak ground acceleration presented by Anbazhagan and Sitharam(5) and liquefaction resistance, using corrected standard penetration test (SPT) N values. The estimated factor of safety against liquefaction is used to estimate liquefaction potential index and liquefaction severity index. These values are mapped using Geographical information system (GIS) to identify the vulnerable and safe zones in Bangalore. This study shows that more than 95% of the BMP area is safe against liquefaction potential. However the western part of the BMP is not safe against liquefaction, as it may be subjected to liquefaction with probability of 35 to 65%. Three approaches used in this study show that 1) mapping least factor of safety irrespective of depth may be used to find liquefiable area for worst case. 2) mapping liquefaction potential index can be used to assess the liquefaction severity of the area by considering layer thickness and factor of safety and 3) mapping of liquefaction severity index can be used to access the probability of liquefaction of area.

A fluctuation-based probe to athermal phase transitions

We focus on athermal phase transitions where in discrete and dissipative avalanches are observed in physical observables as the system jumps from one metastable state to another, when driven by an external field. Using higher order statistics of time dependent avalanches, or noise, in electrical resistivity during temperature-driven martensite transformation in thin nickel-titanium films, we demonstrate evidence suggesting the existence of a singular `global instability' or divergence of the correlation length as a function of temperature at the transition. These results not only establish a mapping of non-equilibrium first order phase transition and equilibrium critical phenomena, but perhaps also call for a re-evaluation of many existing experimental claims of self-organized criticality.

Mapping of adult plant resistance to net form of net blotch in three Australian barley populations

Net form of net blotch (NFNB), caused by Pyrenophora teres Drechs. f. teres Smedeg., is a serious disease problem for the barley industry in Australia and other parts of the world. Three doubled haploid barley populations, Alexis/Sloop, WI2875-1/Alexis, and Arapiles/Franklin, were used to identify genes conferring adult plant resistance to NFNB in field trials. Quantitative trait loci (QTLs) identified were specific for adult plant resistance because seedlings of the parental lines were susceptible to the NFNB isolates used in this study. QTLs were identified on chromosomes 2H, 3H, 4H, and 7H in both the Alexis/Sloop and WI2875-1/Alexis populations and on chromosomes 1H, 2H, and 7H in the Arapiles/Franklin population. Using QTLNetwork, epistatic interactions were identified between loci on chromosomes 3H and 6H in the Alexis/Sloop population, between 2H and 4H in the WI2875-1/Alexis population, and between 5H and 7H in the Arapiles/Franklin population. Comparisons with earlier studies of NFNB resistance indicate the pathotype-dependent nature of many resistance QTLs and the importance of establishing an international system of pathotype nomenclature and differential testing.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

A method for mapping the distribution and density of rabbits and other vertebrate pests in Australia

The European wild rabbit has been considered Australia’s worst vertebrate pest and yet little effort appears to have gone into producing maps of rabbit distribution and density. Mapping the distribution and density of pests is an important step in effective management. A map is essential for estimating the extent of damage caused and for efficiently planning and monitoring the success of pest control operations. This paper describes the use of soil type and point data to prepare a map showing the distribution and density of rabbits in Australia. The potential for the method to be used for mapping other vertebrate pests is explored. The approach used to prepare the map is based on that used for rabbits in Queensland (Berman et al. 1998). An index of rabbit density was determined using the number of Spanish rabbit fleas released per square kilometre for each Soil Map Unit (Atlas of Australian Soils). Spanish rabbit fleas were released into active rabbit warrens at 1606 sites in the early 1990s as an additional vector for myxoma virus and the locations of the releases were recorded using a Global Positioning System (GPS). Releases were predominantly in arid areas but some fleas were released in south east Queensland and the New England Tablelands of New South Wales. The map produced appears to reflect well the distribution and density of rabbits, at least in the areas where Spanish fleas were released. Rabbit pellet counts conducted in 2007 at 54 sites across an area of south east South Australia, south eastern Queensland, and parts of New South Wales (New England Tablelands and south west) in soil Map Units where Spanish fleas were released, provided a preliminary means to ground truth the map. There was a good relationship between mean pellet count score and the index of abundance for soil Map Units. Rabbit pellet counts may allow extension of the map into other parts of Australia where there were no Spanish rabbit fleas released and where there may be no other consistent information on rabbit location and density. The recent Equine Influenza outbreak provided a further test of the value of this mapping method. The distribution and density of domestic horses were mapped to provide estimates of the number of horses in various regions. These estimates were close to the actual numbers of horses subsequently determined from vaccination records and registrations. The soil Map Units are not simply soil types they contain information on landuse and vegetation and the soil classification is relatively localised. These properties make this mapping method useful, not only for rabbits, but also for other species that are not so dependent on soil type for survival.