Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

General expression for probabilistic estimation of multiphase structure invariants in the case of a native protein and multiple derivatives. Application to estimates of the three-phase structure invariants

Concise probabilistic formulae with definite crystallographic implications are obtained from the distribution for eight three-phase structure invariants (3PSIs) in the case of a native protein and a heavy-atom derivative [Hauptman (1982). Acta Cryst. A38, 289-294] and from the distribution for 27 3PSIs in the case of a native and two derivatives [Fortier, Weeks & Hauptman (1984). Acta Cryst. A40, 646-651]. The main results of the probabilistic formulae for the four-phase structure invariants are presented and compared with those for the 3PSIs. The analysis directly leads to a general formula of probabilistic estimation for the n-phase structure invariants in the case of a native and m derivatives. The factors affecting the estimated accuracy of the 3PSIs are examined using the diffraction data from a moderate-sized protein. A method to estimate a set of the large-modulus invariants, each corresponding to one of the eight 3PSIs, that has the largest \Delta\ values and relatively large structure-factor moduli between the native and derivative is suggested, which remarkably improves the accuracy, and thus a phasing procedure making full use of all eight 3PSIs is proposed.

Estimates of genetic parameters for growth traits of the sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus intermedius

Heritabilities and genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated for body weight, test diameter, and test height of the sea urchin from measurements on progeny resulting from 11 sires and 33 dams by artificial fertilization of 3 females by single males, and measurements at 8, 10, and 12 months after metamorphism. Point estimate for heritabilities based on the sire components of variance were moderate to high for body weight (0.21-0.49), test diameter (0.21-0.47), and test height (0.22-0.37). Genetic correlations were significant for body weight with test diameter (0.30similar to0.65) and test height (0.30similar to0.54) and test diameter with test height (0.31similar to0.65). Genetic correlation estimates, derived the nested design and half-sib correlation analysis used in this study, appear to provide reliable estimates. Significant phenotypic correlations were found for body weight with test diameter (0.82similar to0.86) and test height (0.49similar to0.83), and test diameter with test height (0.47similar to0.84). The phenotypic correlations for test height with body weight (0.491) and test diameter (0.467) at 12 months' of age were smaller than those earlier sampling periods.(C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Wind-vector estimation for RADARSAT-1 SAR images: Validation of wind-direction estimates based upon geometry diversity

In this letter, a new wind-vector algorithm is presented that uses radar backscatter sigma(0) measurements at two adjacent subscenes of RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, with each subscene having slightly different geometry. Resultant wind vectors are validated using in situ buoy measurements and compared with wind vectors determined from a hybrid wind-retrieval model using wind directions determined by spectral analysis of wind-induced image streaks and observed by colocated QuikSCAT measurements. The hybrid wind-retrieval model consists of CMOD-IFR2 [applicable to C-band vertical-vertical (W) polarization] and a C-band copolarization ratio according to Kirchhoff scattering. The new algorithm displays improved skill in wind-vector estimation for RADARSAT-1 SAR data when compared to conventional wind-retrieval methodology. In addition, unlike conventional methods, the present method is applicable to RADARSAT-1 images both with and without visible streaks. However, this method requires ancillary data such as buoy measurements to resolve the ambiguity in retrieved wind direction.

Genetic parameter estimates for growth traits at early stage of Pacific abalone, Haliotis discus hannai Ino

Heritability and genetic and phenotypic correlations were estimated for juvenile growth traits of Pacific abalone Haliotis discus hannai Ino. The estimates were calculated from shell length and shell width measurements on progeny resulting from 12 half-sib families and 36 full-sib families obtained using artificial fertilization of mating three females to each male. The measurements were taken at 10, 20 and 30 d after fertilization. It was found that heritability estimates based on sire component ranged from 0.23 to 0.36 for shell length and 0.21 to 0.32 for shell width. Heritability estimates from dam component were larger than those from sire component at three ages, indicating presence of maternal effects, non-additive genetic effects and common environmental effects. Phenotypic correlations were significant at three ages (P < 0.05), with values of 0.92, 0.93 and 0.92, respectively. Genetic correlations from the paternal half-sib correlation analysis were highly positive at three ages, with values of 0.50, 0.78 and 0.81, respectively. The results suggest that selective breeding is an effective approach to improving growth traits of Pacific abalone stocks.

Models of Noise and Robust Estimates

Given n noisy observations g; of the same quantity f, it is common use to give an estimate of f by minimizing the function Eni=1(gi-f)2. From a statistical point of view this corresponds to computing the Maximum likelihood estimate, under the assumption of Gaussian noise. However, it is well known that this choice leads to results that are very sensitive to the presence of outliers in the data. For this reason it has been proposed to minimize the functions of the form Eni=1V(gi-f), where V is a function that increases less rapidly than the square. Several choices for V have been proposed and successfully used to obtain "robust" estimates. In this paper we show that, for a class of functions V, using these robust estimators corresponds to assuming that data are corrupted by Gaussian noise whose variance fluctuates according to some given probability distribution, that uniquely determines the shape of V.

Three-dimensional dispersive metallic photonic crystals with a bandgap and a high cutoff frequency.

The goal of this work is to analyze three-dimensional dispersive metallic photonic crystals (PCs) and to find a structure that can provide a bandgap and a high cutoff frequency. The determination of the band structure of a PC with dispersive materials is an expensive nonlinear eigenvalue problem; in this work we propose a rational-polynomial method to convert such a nonlinear eigenvalue problem into a linear eigenvalue problem. The spectral element method is extended to rapidly calculate the band structure of three-dimensional PCs consisting of realistic dispersive materials modeled by Drude and Drude-Lorentz models. Exponential convergence is observed in the numerical experiments. Numerical results show that, at the low frequency limit, metallic materials are similar to a perfect electric conductor, where the simulation results tend to be the same as perfect electric conductor PCs. Band structures of the scaffold structure and semi-woodpile structure metallic PCs are investigated. It is found that band structures of semi-woodpile PCs have a very high cutoff frequency as well as a bandgap between the lowest two bands and the higher bands.

The impact of geologic variability on capacity and cost estimates for storing CO 2 in deep-saline aquifers

While numerous studies find that deep-saline sandstone aquifers in the United States could store many decades worth of the nation's current annual CO 2 emissions, the likely cost of this storage (i.e. the cost of storage only and not capture and transport costs) has been harder to constrain. We use publicly available data of key reservoir properties to produce geo-referenced rasters of estimated storage capacity and cost for regions within 15 deep-saline sandstone aquifers in the United States. The rasters reveal the reservoir quality of these aquifers to be so variable that the cost estimates for storage span three orders of magnitude and average>$100/tonne CO 2. However, when the cost and corresponding capacity estimates in the rasters are assembled into a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), we find that ~75% of the estimated storage capacity could be available for<$2/tonne. Furthermore, ~80% of the total estimated storage capacity in the rasters is concentrated within just two of the aquifers-the Frio Formation along the Texas Gulf Coast, and the Mt. Simon Formation in the Michigan Basin, which together make up only ~20% of the areas analyzed. While our assessment is not comprehensive, the results suggest there should be an abundance of low-cost storage for CO 2 in deep-saline aquifers, but a majority of this storage is likely to be concentrated within specific regions of a smaller number of these aquifers. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs.

The research and development costs of 68 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per new drug is 403 million US dollars (2000 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 11% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of 802 million US dollars (2000 dollars). When compared to the results of an earlier study with a similar methodology, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 7.4% above general price inflation.

Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

Phase-accuracy comparisons and improved far-field estimates for 3-D edge elements on tetrahedral meshes

Edge-element methods have proved very effective for 3-D electromagnetic computations and are widely used on unstructured meshes. However, the accuracy of standard edge elements can be criticised because of their low order. This paper analyses discrete dispersion relations together with numerical propagation accuracy to determine the effect of tetrahedral shape on the phase accuracy of standard 3-D edgeelement approximations in comparison to other methods. Scattering computations for the sphere obtained with edge elements are compared with results obtained with vertex elements, and a new formulation of the far-field integral approximations for use with edge elements is shown to give improved cross sections over conventional formulations.