Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Evidence for oxygen-island formation on Al(111): Cluster-model theory and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

The O 1s x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy spectrum for Al(111)/O at 300 K shows two components whose behavior as a function of time and variation of detection angle are consistent with either (a) a surface species represented by the higher binding-energy (BE) component and a subsurface species represented by the lower BE component, or (b) small close-packed oxygen islands with the interior atoms represented by the lower BE component and the perimeter atoms by the higher BE component. We have modeled both situations using ab initio Hartree-Fock wave functions for clusters of Al and O atoms. For an O atom in a threefold site, it was found that a below-surface position gave a higher O 1s BE than an above-surface position, incompatible with interpretation (a). This change in the O 1s BE could arise because the bond for O to Al may have a more covalent character when the O is below the surface than when it is above the surface. We present evidence consistent with this view. An O adatom island with all the O atoms in threefold sites gives calculated O 1s BE's which are significantly higher for the perimeter O atoms. Further, the results for an isolated O island without the Al substrate present also give higher BE¿s for the perimeter atoms. Both these results are consistent with interpretation (b). Published scanning-tunneling-microscopy data supports the suggestion that the chemisorbed state consists of small, close-packed islands, whereas the presence of two vibrational modes in high-resolution electron-energy-loss spectroscopy data has been interpreted as representing surface and subsurface oxygen atoms. In light of the present results, we suggest that a vibrational interpretation in terms of interior and perimeter adatoms should be considered.

Retaining principal components for discrete variables

The present study discusses retention criteria for principal components analysis (PCA) applied to Likert scale items typical in psychological questionnaires. The main aim is to recommend applied researchers to restrain from relying only on the eigenvalue-than-one criterion; alternative procedures are suggested for adjusting for sampling error. An additional objective is to add evidence on the consequences of applying this rule when PCA is used with discrete variables. The experimental conditions were studied by means of Monte Carlo sampling including several sample sizes, different number of variables and answer alternatives, and four non-normal distributions. The results suggest that even when all the items and thus the underlying dimensions are independent, eigenvalues greater than one are frequent and they can explain up to 80% of the variance in data, meeting the empirical criterion. The consequences of using Kaiser"s rule are illustrated with a clinical psychology example. The size of the eigenvalues resulted to be a function of the sample size and the number of variables, which is also the case for parallel analysis as previous research shows. To enhance the application of alternative criteria, an R package was developed for deciding the number of principal components to retain by means of confidence intervals constructed about the eigenvalues corresponding to lack of relationship between discrete variables.

The evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of genetic colour polymorphism in birds.

The hypothesis that ornaments can honestly signal quality only if their expression is condition-dependent has dominated the study of the evolution and function of colour traits. Much less interest has been devoted to the adaptive function of colour traits for which the expression is not, or is to a low extent, sensitive to body condition and the environment in which individuals live. The aim of the present paper is to review the current theoretical and empirical knowledge of the evolution, maintenance and adaptive function of colour plumage traits for which the expression is mainly under genetic control. The finding that in many bird species the inheritance of colour morphs follows the laws of Mendel indicates that genetic colour polymorphism is frequent. Polymorphism may have evolved or be maintained because each colour morph facilitates the exploitation of alternative ecological niches as suggested by the observation that individuals are not randomly distributed among habitats with respect to coloration. Consistent with the hypothesis that different colour morphs are linked to alternative strategies is the finding that in a majority of species polymorphism is associated with reproductive parameters, and behavioural, life-history and physiological traits. Experimental studies showed that such covariations can have a genetic basis. These observations suggest that colour polymorphism has an adaptive function. Aviary and field experiments demonstrated that colour polymorphism is used as a criterion in mate-choice decisions and dominance interactions confirming the claim that conspecifics assess each other's colour morphs. The factors favouring the evolution and maintenance of genetic variation in coloration are reviewed, but empirical data are virtually lacking to assess their importance. Although current theory predicts that only condition-dependent traits can signal quality, the present review shows that genetically inherited morphs can reveal the same qualities. The study of genetic colour polymorphism will provide important and original insights on the adaptive function of conspicuous traits.

On the tractability of the piecewise-linear approximation for general discrete-choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management (RM) model incorporates customer purchase behavioras customers purchasing products with certain probabilities that are a function of the offeredassortment of products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel network revenuemanagement, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization. The underlyingstochastic dynamic program is intractable and even its certainty-equivalence approximation, inthe form of a linear program called Choice Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP) is difficultto solve in most cases. The separation problem for CDLP is NP-complete for MNL with justtwo segments when their consideration sets overlap; the affine approximation of the dynamicprogram is NP-complete for even a single-segment MNL. This is in contrast to the independentclass(perfect-segmentation) case where even the piecewise-linear approximation has been shownto be tractable. In this paper we investigate the piecewise-linear approximation for network RMunder a general discrete-choice model of demand. We show that the gap between the CDLP andthe piecewise-linear bounds is within a factor of at most 2. We then show that the piecewiselinearapproximation is polynomially-time solvable for a fixed consideration set size, bringing itinto the realm of tractability for small consideration sets; small consideration sets are a reasonablemodeling tradeoff in many practical applications. Our solution relies on showing that forany discrete-choice model the separation problem for the linear program of the piecewise-linearapproximation can be solved exactly by a Lagrangian relaxation. We give modeling extensionsand show by numerical experiments the improvements from using piecewise-linear approximationfunctions.

Gene Ontology Function prediction in Mollicutes using Protein-Protein Association Networks

Abstract Background: Many complex systems can be represented and analysed as networks. The recent availability of large-scale datasets, has made it possible to elucidate some of the organisational principles and rules that govern their function, robustness and evolution. However, one of the main limitations in using protein-protein interactions for function prediction is the availability of interaction data, especially for Mollicutes. If we could harness predicted interactions, such as those from a Protein-Protein Association Networks (PPAN), combining several protein-protein network function-inference methods with semantic similarity calculations, the use of protein-protein interactions for functional inference in this species would become more potentially useful. Results: In this work we show that using PPAN data combined with other approximations, such as functional module detection, orthology exploitation methods and Gene Ontology (GO)-based information measures helps to predict protein function in Mycoplasma genitalium. Conclusions: To our knowledge, the proposed method is the first that combines functional module detection among species, exploiting an orthology procedure and using information theory-based GO semantic similarity in PPAN of the Mycoplasma species. The results of an evaluation show a higher recall than previously reported methods that focused on only one organism network.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Multidelayed random walks: Theory and application to the neolithic transition in Europe

We present a model in which particles (or individuals of a biological population) disperse with a rest time between consecutive motions (or migrations) which may take several possible values from a discrete set. Particles (or individuals) may also react (or reproduce). We derive a new equation for the effective rest time T˜ of the random walk. Application to the neolithic transition in Europe makes it possible to derive more realistic theoretical values for its wavefront speed than those following from the single-delayed framework presented previously [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)]. The new results are consistent with the archaeological observations of this important historical process

Investigation of discrete imaging models and iterative image reconstruction in differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography.

Differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography (DPCT) refers to a class of promising methods for reconstructing the X-ray refractive index distribution of materials that present weak X-ray absorption contrast. The tomographic projection data in DPCT, from which an estimate of the refractive index distribution is reconstructed, correspond to one-dimensional (1D) derivatives of the two-dimensional (2D) Radon transform of the refractive index distribution. There is an important need for the development of iterative image reconstruction methods for DPCT that can yield useful images from few-view projection data, thereby mitigating the long data-acquisition times and large radiation doses associated with use of analytic reconstruction methods. In this work, we analyze the numerical and statistical properties of two classes of discrete imaging models that form the basis for iterative image reconstruction in DPCT. We also investigate the use of one of the models with a modern image reconstruction algorithm for performing few-view image reconstruction of a tissue specimen.

Black holes by analytic continuation

In the context of a two-dimensional exactly solvable model, the dynamics of quantum black holes is obtained by analytically continuing the description of the regime where no black hole is formed. The resulting spectrum of outgoing radiation departs from the one predicted by the Hawking model in the region where the outgoing modes arise from the horizon with Planck-order frequencies. This occurs early in the evaporation process, and the resulting physical picture is unconventional. The theory predicts that black holes will only radiate out an energy of Planck mass order, stabilizing after a transitory period. The continuation from a regime without black hole formationaccessible in the 1+1 gravity theory consideredis implicit in an S-matrix approach and suggests in this way a possible solution to the problem of information loss.

Application of Information Statistical Theory to the Description of the Effect of Heat Conduction on the Chemical Reaction Rate in Gases

The effect of the heat flux on the rate of chemical reaction in dilute gases is shown to be important for reactions characterized by high activation energies and in the presence of very large temperature gradients. This effect, obtained from the second-order terms in the distribution function (similar to those obtained in the Burnett approximation to the solution of the Boltzmann equation), is derived on the basis of information theory. It is shown that the analytical results describing the effect are simpler if the kinetic definition for the nonequilibrium temperature is introduced than if the thermodynamic definition is introduced. The numerical results are nearly the same for both definitions

Thomas-Fermi theory for atomic nuclei revisited

The recently developed semiclassical variational Wigner-Kirkwood (VWK) approach is applied to finite nuclei using external potentials and self-consistent mean fields derived from Skyrme inter-actions and from relativistic mean field theory. VWK consist s of the Thomas-Fermi part plus a pure, perturbative h 2 correction. In external potentials, VWK passes through the average of the quantal values of the accumulated level density and total en energy as a function of the Fermi energy. However, there is a problem of overbinding when the energy per particle is displayed as a function of the particle number. The situation is analyzed comparing spherical and deformed harmonic oscillator potentials. In the self-consistent case, we show for Skyrme forces that VWK binding energies are very close to those obtained from extended Thomas-Fermi functionals of h 4 order, pointing to the rapid convergence of the VWK theory. This satisfying result, however, does not cure the overbinding problem, i.e., the semiclassical energies show more binding than they should. This feature is more pronounced in the case of Skyrme forces than with the relativistic mean field approach. However, even in the latter case the shell correction energy for e.g.208 Pb turns out to be only ∼ −6 MeV what is about a factor two or three off the generally accepted value. As an adhoc remedy, increasing the kinetic energy by 2.5%, leads to shell correction energies well acceptable throughout the periodic table. The general importance of the present studies for other finite Fermi systems, self-bound or in external potentials, is pointed out.

Classical line shapes based on analytical solutions of bimolecular trajectories in collision induced emission. II. Reactive collisions

The classical theory of collision induced emission (CIE) from pairs of dissimilar rare gas atoms was developed in Paper I [D. Reguera and G. Birnbaum, J. Chem. Phys. 125, 184304 (2006)] from a knowledge of the straight line collision trajectory and the assumption that the magnitude of the dipole could be represented by an exponential function of the inter-nuclear distance. This theory is extended here to deal with other functional forms of the induced dipole as revealed by ab initio calculations. Accurate analytical expression for the CIE can be obtained by least square fitting of the ab initio values of the dipole as a function of inter-atomic separation using a sum of exponentials and then proceeding as in Paper I. However, we also show how the multi-exponential fit can be replaced by a simpler fit using only two analytic functions. Our analysis is applied to the polar molecules HF and HBr. Unlike the rare gas atoms considered previously, these atomic pairs form stable bound diatomic molecules. We show that, interestingly, the spectra of these reactive molecules are characterized by the presence of multiple peaks. We also discuss the CIE arising from half collisions in excited electronic states, which in principle could be probed in photo-dissociation experiments.

Toward on-the-fly quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) docking: development and benchmark of a scoring function.

We address the challenges of treating polarization and covalent interactions in docking by developing a hybrid quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) scoring function based on the semiempirical self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) method and the CHARMM force field. To benchmark this scoring function within the EADock DSS docking algorithm, we created a publicly available dataset of high-quality X-ray structures of zinc metalloproteins ( http://www.molecular-modelling.ch/resources.php ). For zinc-bound ligands (226 complexes), the QM/MM scoring yielded a substantially improved success rate compared to the classical scoring function (77.0% vs 61.5%), while, for allosteric ligands (55 complexes), the success rate remained constant (49.1%). The QM/MM scoring significantly improved the detection of correct zinc-binding geometries and improved the docking success rate by more than 20% for several important drug targets. The performance of both the classical and the QM/MM scoring functions compare favorably to the performance of AutoDock4, AutoDock4Zn, and AutoDock Vina.

Indicators for the characterization of discrete Choquet integrals

Ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators and their extensions are powerful tools used in numerous decision-making problems. This class of operator belongs to a more general family of aggregation operators, understood as discrete Choquet integrals. Aggregation operators are usually characterized by indicators. In this article four indicators usually associated with the OWA operator are extended to discrete Choquet integrals: namely, the degree of balance, the divergence, the variance indicator and Renyi entropies. All of these indicators are considered from a local and a global perspective. Linearity of indicators for linear combinations of capacities is investigated and, to illustrate the application of results, indicators of the probabilistic ordered weighted averaging -POWA- operator are derived. Finally, an example is provided to show the application to a specific context.