Zircon chronochemistry of high heat-producing granites in Queensland and Europe

High heat-producing granites (HHPGs) are reservoir rocks for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), yet the origins of their anomalous chemistry remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of the characteristic distribution of elemental depletions and enrichments (focussing on U, Th & K) within granite suites of different heritage and tectonic setting, and the processes that lead to these enrichments, we are undertaking a systematic accessory-mineral chronochemical study of two suites of S- and I-type granites in northern Queensland, as well as two archetypal HHPGs in Cornwall, England (S-type) and Soultz-sous- Forêts, France (I-type). Novel zircon LA-ICP-MS chronochemical methods will later be underpinned by a systematic petrographic, scanning electron microscope (SEM), and electron microprobe (EPMA) study of all the REE-Y-Th-U-rich accessory minerals to fully characterise how the composition, textural distributions and associations change with rock chemistry between and among the suites. Preliminary results indicate that zircons with inherited ages do not have anomalously high U (>1000 ppm) & Th (>400 ppm) values (Ahrens, 1965). Instead, enrichment in these HPE is seen in zircons dated to around the time of magmatic emplacement. These results indicate that enrichment arose primarily through fractional crystallisation of the granitic magmas. Our results support the suggestion that a source pre-enriched in the HPEs does not appear to be fundamental for the formation of all HHPGs. Instead fractional crystallisation processes, and the accessory minerals formed in magmas of differing initial compositions, are the key controls on the levels of enrichment observed (e.g. Champion & Chappell, 1992; Chappell & Hine, 2006). One implication is that the most fractionated granites may not be the most enriched in the HPEs and therefore prospective to future EGS development.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.

Are heat warning systems effective?

Heatwaves are associated with significant health risks particularly among vulnerable groups. To minimize these risks, heat warning systems have been implemented. The question therefore is how effective these systems are in saving lives and reducing heat-related harm. We systematically searched and reviewed 15 studies which examined this. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after the implementation of heat warning systems. Demand for ambulance decreased following the implementation of these systems. One study also estimated the costs of running heat warning systems at US$210,000 compared to the US$468 million benefits of saving 117 lives. The remaining eight studies investigated people?s response to heat warning systems and taking appropriate actions against heat harms. Perceived threat of heat dangers emerged as the main factor related to heeding the warnings and taking proper actions. However, barriers, such as costs of running air-conditioners, were of significant concern, particularly to the poor. The weight of the evidence suggests that heat warning systems are effective in reducing mortality and, potentially, morbidity. However, their effectiveness may be mediated by cognitive, emotive and socio-demographic characteristics. More research is urgently required into the cost-effectiveness of heat warning systems? measures and improving the utilization of the services.

Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Improved estimates of percolation and anisotropic permeability from 3-D X-ray microtomography using stochastic analyses and visualization

X-ray microtomography (micro-CT) with micron resolution enables new ways of characterizing microstructures and opens pathways for forward calculations of multiscale rock properties. A quantitative characterization of the microstructure is the first step in this challenge. We developed a new approach to extract scale-dependent characteristics of porosity, percolation, and anisotropic permeability from 3-D microstructural models of rocks. The Hoshen-Kopelman algorithm of percolation theory is employed for a standard percolation analysis. The anisotropy of permeability is calculated by means of the star volume distribution approach. The local porosity distribution and local percolation probability are obtained by using the local porosity theory. Additionally, the local anisotropy distribution is defined and analyzed through two empirical probability density functions, the isotropy index and the elongation index. For such a high-resolution data set, the typical data sizes of the CT images are on the order of gigabytes to tens of gigabytes; thus an extremely large number of calculations are required. To resolve this large memory problem parallelization in OpenMP was used to optimally harness the shared memory infrastructure on cache coherent Non-Uniform Memory Access architecture machines such as the iVEC SGI Altix 3700Bx2 Supercomputer. We see adequate visualization of the results as an important element in this first pioneering study.

Footprint-based estimates of arch structure are confounded by body composition in adults

Previous research employing indirect measures of arch structure, such as those derived from footprints, have indicated that obesity results in a “flatter” foot type. In the absence of radiographic measures, however, definitive conclusions regarding the osseous alignment of the foot cannot be made. We determined the effect of body mass index (BMI) on radiographic and footprint‐based measures of arch structure. The research was a cross‐sectional study in which radiographic and footprint‐based measures of foot structure were made in 30 subjects (10 males, 20 female) in addition to standard anthropometric measures of height, weight, and BMI. Multiple (univariate) regression analysis demonstrated that both BMI ( β  = 0.39, t 26  = 2.12, p  = 0.04) and radiographic arch alignment ( β  = 0.51, t 26  = 3.32, p  < 0.01) were significant predictors of footprint‐based measures of arch height after controlling for all variables in the model ( R 2  = 0.59, F 3,26  = 12.3, p  < 0.01). In contrast, radiographic arch alignment was not significantly associated with BMI ( β  = −0.03, t 26  = −0.13, p  = 0.89) when Arch Index and age were held constant ( R 2  = 0.52, F 3,26  = 9.3, p  < 0.01). Adult obesity does not influence osseous alignment of the medial longitudinal arch, but selectively distorts footprint‐based measures of arch structure. Footprint‐based measures of arch structure should be interpreted with caution when comparing groups of varying body composition.

A comprehensive dual-scale wood torrefaction model : application to the analysis of thermal run-away in industrial heat treatment processes

A dual-scale model of the torrefaction of wood was developed and used to study industrial configurations. At the local scale, the computational code solves the coupled heat and mass transfer and the thermal degradation mechanisms of the wood components. At the global scale, the two-way coupling between the boards and the stack channels is treated as an integral component of the process. This model is used to investigate the effect of the stack configuration on the heat treatment of the boards. The simulations highlight that the exothermic reactions occurring in each single board can be accumulated along the stack. This phenomenon may result in a dramatic eterogeneity of the process and poses a serious risk of thermal runaway, which is often observed in industrial plants. The model is used to explain how thermal runaway can be lowered by increasing the airflow velocity, the sticker thickness or by gas flow reversal.

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

Review : "Heat islands : understanding and mitigating heat in urban areas" by Lisa Gartland. Reviewed by Tony Matthews.

Heat islands are a significant problem in urban spaces worldwide. The phenomenon occurs when air and surface temperatures in urban areas significantly exceed those experienced in nearby rural areas. There are two main causes of heat islands. The first is the use of highly absorptive construction materials in buildings and infrastructure, which soak up heat and radiate it back into the immediate surroundings. These materials, including but not limited to concrete, steel, asphalt and stone, are usually impermeable and so do not embody moisture that could dissipate some of the absorbed heat. The second cause relates to urban form, where the canyon-like configurations of buildings and streets channel and trap heat from the sun. In both cases, an absence of greenery and other soft landscaping can compound the problem by lowering capacity for cooling through shading and evotranspiration. Incidences of heat islands increase as urban areas swell in size and cover more land area, making the phenomenon an unwelcome side effect of global trends towards increased urbanisation. Heat islands create serious problems, including increased energy demand for cooling, declining air quality and heat stress for people and animals. In very severe cases, heat islands can compound the effects of high urban temperatures, leading to increased human mortality...

Quantitative genetic parameter estimates for body and carcass traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest weight in Vietnam

We estimated the heritability and correlations between body and carcass weight traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest body weight in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body and carcass weight traits were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P>. 0.05). Maternal effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females than in males. Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in the mixed sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high. Although some issues remain regarding the best statistical model to be fitted to GFP data, our results suggest that selection for high harvest body weight based on breeding values estimated by fitting an animal model to the data can significantly improve mean body and carcass weight in GFP.

Unsteady buoyancy driven flows and heat transfer through coupled thermal boundary layers in a partitioned triangular enclosure

A numerical investigation has been carried out for the coupled thermal boundary layers on both sides of a partition placed in an isosceles triangular enclosure along its middle symmetric line. The working fluid is considered as air which is initially quiescent. A sudden temperature difference between two zones of the enclosure has been imposed to trigger the natural convection. It is anticipated from the numerical simulations that the coupled thermal boundary layers development adjacent to the partition undergoes three distinct stages; namely an initial stage, a transitional stage and a steady state stage. Time dependent features of the coupled thermal boundary layers as well as the overall natural convection flow in the partitioned enclosure have been discussed and compared with the non-partitioned enclosure. Moreover, heat transfer as a form of local and overall average Nusselt number through the coupled thermal boundary layers and the inclined walls is also examined.