Solutions to the Chronological Puzzles in Book 1 of the Chronicle of Matthew of Edessa

The chronological inconsistency in the first book of Matthew of Edessa's Chronicle is well-known. Some of his are dates accurate to the day, while others err by up to 50 years, with no immediately apparent pattern of error. In this talk I will examine some of these chronological puzzles, by untangling the five main themes that run through the book. By demonstrating how these chronological errors may have arisen, and why certain events in the chronicle are dated much more accurately than others, light may be shed on the sources and methodologies that Matthew used to compose his chronicle.

‎101011 manuscripts: Perl and the Chronicle of Matthew of Edessa‎

The Chronicle of Matthew of Edessa is a twelfth-century Armenian history that survives in 43 manuscripts, held in ten libraries in eight countries. My task is to create a definitive text that is based on all of them. I will talk about the problems of medieval text editing, the ways in which Perl and phylogenetics have come to my rescue, and show a few pretty pictures of manuscripts

A Comparative Analysis of Bronchial Stricture After Lung Transplantation in Recipients With and Without Early Acute Rejection

BACKGROUND: Risk factors and outcomes of bronchial stricture after lung transplantation are not well defined. An association between acute rejection and development of stricture has been suggested in small case series. We evaluated this relationship using a large national registry. METHODS: All lung transplantations between April 1994 and December 2008 per the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database were analyzed. Generalized linear models were used to determine the association between early rejection and development of stricture after adjusting for potential confounders. The association of stricture with postoperative lung function and overall survival was also evaluated. RESULTS: Nine thousand three hundred thirty-five patients were included for analysis. The incidence of stricture was 11.5% (1,077/9,335), with no significant change in incidence during the study period (P=0.13). Early rejection was associated with a significantly greater incidence of stricture (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.61; p<0.0001). Male sex, restrictive lung disease, and pretransplantation requirement for hospitalization were also associated with stricture. Those who experienced stricture had a lower postoperative peak percent predicted forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) (median 74% versus 86% for bilateral transplants only; p<0.0001), shorter unadjusted survival (median 6.09 versus 6.82 years; p<0.001) and increased risk of death after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.23; p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Early rejection is associated with an increased incidence of stricture. Recipients with stricture demonstrate worse postoperative lung function and survival. Prospective studies may be warranted to further assess causality and the potential for coordinated rejection and stricture surveillance strategies to improve postoperative outcomes.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.