Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Misallocation of capital in a model of endogenous financial intermediation and insurance

In this paper we analyze productivity and welfare losses from capital misallocation in a general equilibrium model of occupational choice and endogenous financial intermediation. We study the effects of borrowing and lending, insurance, and risk sharing on the optimal allocation of resources. We find that financial markets together with general equilibrium effects have large impact on entrepreneurs' entry and firm-size decisions. Efficiency gains are increasing in the quality of financial markets, particularly in their ability to alleviate a financing constraint by providing insurance against idiosyncratic risk.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Price policies and Price dispersion in the private healthcare insurance industry: The Catalan case

We present an overlapping generations model that explains price dispersion among Catalonian healthcare insurance firms. The model shows that firms with different premium policies can coexist. Furthermore, if interest rates are low, firms that apply equal premium to all insureds can charge higher average prices than insurers that set premiums according to the risk of insured. Economic theory, health insurance, health economics.

E2F1 mediates DNA damage and apoptosis through HCF-1 and the MLL family of histone methyltransferases.

E2F1 is a key positive regulator of human cell proliferation and its activity is altered in essentially all human cancers. Deregulation of E2F1 leads to oncogenic DNA damage and anti-oncogenic apoptosis. The molecular mechanisms by which E2F1 mediates these two processes are poorly understood but are important for understanding cancer progression. During the G1-to-S phase transition, E2F1 associates through a short DHQY sequence with the cell-cycle regulator HCF-1 together with the mixed-lineage leukaemia (MLL) family of histone H3 lysine 4 (H3K4) methyltransferases. We show here that the DHQY HCF-1-binding sequence permits E2F1 to stimulate both DNA damage and apoptosis, and that HCF-1 and the MLL family of H3K4 methyltransferases have important functions in these processes. Thus, HCF-1 has a broader role in E2F1 function than appreciated earlier. Indeed, sequence changes in the E2F1 HCF-1-binding site can modulate both up and down the ability of E2F1 to induce apoptosis indicating that HCF-1 association with E2F1 is a regulator of E2F1-induced apoptosis.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

SAMHD1 is mutated recurrently in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and is involved in response to DNA damage.

SAMHD1 is a deoxynucleoside triphosphate triphosphohydrolase and a nuclease that restricts HIV-1 in noncycling cells. Germ-line mutations in SAMHD1 have been described in patients with Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS), a congenital autoimmune disease. In a previous longitudinal whole genome sequencing study of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), we revealed a SAMHD1 mutation as a potential founding event. Here, we describe an AGS patient carrying a pathogenic germ-line SAMHD1 mutation who developed CLL at 24 years of age. Using clinical trial samples, we show that acquired SAMHD1 mutations are associated with high variant allele frequency and reduced SAMHD1 expression and occur in 11% of relapsed/refractory CLL patients. We provide evidence that SAMHD1 regulates cell proliferation and survival and engages in specific protein interactions in response to DNA damage. We propose that SAMHD1 may have a function in DNA repair and that the presence of SAMHD1 mutations in CLL promotes leukemia development.

Acute Damage to the Posterior Limb of the Internal Capsule on Diffusion Tensor Tractography as an Early Imaging Predictor of Motor Outcome after Stroke

Background and Purpose Early prediction of motor outcome is of interest in stroke management. We aimed to determine whether lesion location at DTT is predictive of motor outcome after acute stroke and whether this information improves the predictive accuracy of the clinical scores. Methods We evaluated 60 consecutive patients within 12 hours of MCA stroke onset. We used DTT to evaluate CST involvement in the MC and PMC, CS, CR, and PLIC and in combinations of these regions at admission, at day 3, and at day 30. Severity of limb weakness was assessed using the m-NIHSS (5a, 5b, 6a, 6b). We calculated volumes of infarct and FA values in the CST of the pons. Results Acute damage to the PLIC was the best predictor associated with poor motor outcome, axonal damage, and clinical severity at admission (P&.001). There was no significant correlation between acute infarct volume and motor outcome at day 90 (P=.176, r=0.485). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of acute CST involvement at the level of the PLIC for 4 motor outcome at day 90 were 73.7%, 100%, 100%, and 89.1%, respectively. In the acute stage, DTT predicted motor outcome at day 90 better than the clinical scores (R2=75.50, F=80.09, P&.001). Conclusions In the acute setting, DTT is promising for stroke mapping to predict motor outcome. Acute CST damage at the level of the PLIC is a significant predictor of unfavorable motor outcome.

White Paper on Private Health Insurance

This White Paper, which arises from commitments in the Action Programme for the New Millennium, sets out the Government’s policy objectives and proposals regarding the role of private health insurance in the overall healthcare system, the regulation of the health insurance market, and the corporate structure and status of the Voluntary Health Insurance Board Download the Report here

Morphometric Vertebral Assessments via the Use of Dual X-ray Absorptiometry for the Evaluation of Radiographic Damage in Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Pilot Study.

We performed a pilot study to compare vertebral fracture assessments (VFA) and lateral X-rays in terms of inter- and intraobserver reliability and degree of correlation for the detection of syndesmophytes in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). We recruited 19 patients with AS and recent lumbar or cervical lateral X-rays with at least one syndesmophyte. Each patient underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry with measurement of bone mineral density and dorso-lumbar VFA. Intra- and interreader reliability for VFA and X-rays were measured using 2 independent, blinded observers and Cohen's kappa values. An adapted modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (amSASSS) was generated with each method, and these 2 values correlated. For X-rays, intraobserver and interobserver agreement were 94.3% (κ = 0.83) and 98.6% (κ = 0.96), respectively; for VFA, corresponding values were 92.8% (κ = 0.79) and 93.8% (κ = 0.82). Overall agreement between the 2 techniques was 88.6% (κ = 0.72). The Pearson correlation coefficient for the 2 methods was 0.95 for the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score . Per dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-generated bone mineral density, >50% of patients were osteopenic and 10% osteoporotic. In terms of reproducibility and correlation with X-rays, performing a VFA appears to be a candidate for assessing radiographic damage in AS, thought further research is necessary to justify this indication.

Private Medical Insurance in Ireland

Private Medical Insurance in Ireland On 17 January 2007 The Minister for Health and Children announced that she had appointed a three person group comprising Colm Barrington (chair), Seamus Creedon and Dorothea Dowling (the Group) to carry out a business appraisal of the private medical insurance (PMI) market in Ireland and to report back to her on the subject by 31 March 2007. The Ministerâ?Ts announcement included the following terms of reference for the Group: Click here to download PDF 351kb

Report of the Vaccine Damage Steering Group

Report of the Vaccine Damage Steering Group Click here to download PDF 1.1mb

Supplementary Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version)

The purpose of this Supplementary Report is to advise on how the budgetary measures impact on the conclusions in relation to tax credits and stamp duty included in the Authority’s November 2011 Report. in doing so, we will assess the direct impacts and we will discuss some scenarios. However, the Authority’s advice in this area relies on projections of the health insurance market and, in light of the above, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding any projections of how claims inflation or the market size may develop, even in the short and medium terms. Supplementary Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version) Click here to download PDF 3.2mb