PDFOS: PDF estimation based over-sampling for imbalanced two-class problems

This contribution proposes a novel probability density function (PDF) estimation based over-sampling (PDFOS) approach for two-class imbalanced classification problems. The classical Parzen-window kernel function is adopted to estimate the PDF of the positive class. Then according to the estimated PDF, synthetic instances are generated as the additional training data. The essential concept is to re-balance the class distribution of the original imbalanced data set under the principle that synthetic data sample follows the same statistical properties. Based on the over-sampled training data, the radial basis function (RBF) classifier is constructed by applying the orthogonal forward selection procedure, in which the classifier’s structure and the parameters of RBF kernels are determined using a particle swarm optimisation algorithm based on the criterion of minimising the leave-one-out misclassification rate. The effectiveness of the proposed PDFOS approach is demonstrated by the empirical study on several imbalanced data sets.

DENSITY PROFILE, VELOCITY ANISOTROPY, AND LINE-OF-SIGHT EXTERNAL CONVERGENCE OF SLACS GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

Data from 58 strong-lensing events surveyed by the Sloan Lens ACS Survey are used to estimate the projected galaxy mass inside their Einstein radii by two independent methods: stellar dynamics and strong gravitational lensing. We perform a joint analysis of these two estimates inside models with up to three degrees of freedom with respect to the lens density profile, stellar velocity anisotropy, and line-of-sight (LOS) external convergence, which incorporates the effect of the large-scale structure on strong lensing. A Bayesian analysis is employed to estimate the model parameters, evaluate their significance, and compare models. We find that the data favor Jaffe`s light profile over Hernquist`s, but that any particular choice between these two does not change the qualitative conclusions with respect to the features of the system that we investigate. The density profile is compatible with an isothermal, being sightly steeper and having an uncertainty in the logarithmic slope of the order of 5% in models that take into account a prior ignorance on anisotropy and external convergence. We identify a considerable degeneracy between the density profile slope and the anisotropy parameter, which largely increases the uncertainties in the estimates of these parameters, but we encounter no evidence in favor of an anisotropic velocity distribution on average for the whole sample. An LOS external convergence following a prior probability distribution given by cosmology has a small effect on the estimation of the lens density profile, but can increase the dispersion of its value by nearly 40%.

Sequential fixed-width confidence bands for kernel regression estimation

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed (iid) pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths.

The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedure together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confidence bands based on the local linear estimator have the best performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Sample size determination for kernel regression estimation using sequential fixed-width confidence bands

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths. The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedures together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confi dence bands based on the local linear estimator have the better performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Testing unit root based on partially adaptive estimation

This paper proposes unit tests based on partially adaptive estimation. The proposed tests provide an intermediate class of inference procedures that are more efficient than the traditional OLS-based methods and simpler than unit root tests based on fully adptive estimation using nonparametric methods. The limiting distribution of the proposed test is a combination of standard normal and the traditional Dickey-Fuller (DF) distribution, including the traditional ADF test as a special case when using Gaussian density. Taking into a account the well documented characteristic of heavy-tail behavior in economic and financial data, we consider unit root tests coupled with a class of partially adaptive M-estimators based on the student-t distributions, wich includes te normal distribution as a limiting case. Monte Carlo Experiments indicate that, in the presence of heavy tail distributions or innovations that are contaminated by outliers, the proposed test is more powerful than the traditional ADF test. We apply the proposed test to several macroeconomic time series that have heavy-tailed distributions. The unit root hypothesis is rejected in U.S. real GNP, supporting the literature of transitory shocks in output. However, evidence against unit roots is not found in real exchange rate and nominal interest rate even haevy-tail is taken into a account.

Linkage disequilibrium levels in Bos indicus and Bos taurus cattle using medium and high density SNP chip data and different minor allele frequency distributions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimation of deposit and spray distribution in hydro sensible paper and morning glory plant

Herbicides application success depends, besides product correct choice, the observation of environmental conditions and application quality. The work aimed to quantify the effects of surfactant addition in spraying solution, in natural and artificial targets, associated to different nozzle boom angles in relation to application offset, by using distinct evaluation methods. Two experiments were conducted at NuPAM-FCA/UNESP, Botucatu County, São Paulo State, constituted by ten treatments, in factorial scheme 2 × 5, corresponding to two spraying solutions conditions (absence or presence of Aterbane BRTM (0.25% v/v) adjuvant) and five angles of spray nozzle in relation to offset application (-30°, -15°, 90°, +15° and +30°). In Ipomea grandifolia leaves, the distribution and drops deposition of a tracer solution were evaluated by using scores visual and spectrophotometer process. In hydro sensible papers, volumetric medium diameter (VMD), density (cm2 ) and drops medium diameter, covered area (%) and application fees (L ha-1) were evaluated through e-SprinkleTM software. Aterbane BRTM (0.25% v/v) presence or absence, associated or no, to spray nozzles offset did not provide significant differences in I. grandifolia spray deposition. The use of artificial targets presented applicative technical limitations in relation to the use of natural ones as study matrix. Deposit and distribution variables esteem distinct behaviours, independent of target nature.

Reliable estimation of dense optical flow fields with large displacements

[EN] In this paper we show that a classic optical flow technique by Nagel and Enkelmann can be regarded as an early anisotropic diffusion method with a diffusion tensor. We introduce three improvements into the model formulation that avoid inconsistencies caused by centering the brightness term and the smoothness term in different images use a linear scale-space focusing strategy from coarse to fine scales for avoiding convergence to physically irrelevant local minima, and create an energy functional that is invariant under linear brightness changes.  Applying a gradient descent method to the resulting energy functional leads to a system of diffusion-reaction equations. We prove that this system has a unique solution under realistic assumptions on the initial data, and we present an efficient linear implicit numerical scheme in detail. Our method creates flow fields with 100% density over the entire image domain, it is robust under a large range of parameter variations, and it can recover displacement fields that are far beyond the typical one-pixel limits which are characteristic for many differential methods for determining optical flow. We show that it performs better than the classic optical flow methods with 100%  density that are evaluated by Barron et al. (1994). Our software is available from the Internet.

Wavelet estimation in diffusions with periodicity

Wir betrachten einen zeitlich inhomogenen Diffusionsprozess, der durch eine stochastische Differentialgleichung gegeben wird, deren Driftterm ein deterministisches T-periodisches Signal beinhaltet, dessen Periodizität bekannt ist. Dieses Signal sei in einem Besovraum enthalten. Wir schätzen es mit Hilfe eines nichtparametrischen Waveletschätzers. Unser Schätzer ist von einem Wavelet-Dichteschätzer mit Thresholding inspiriert, der 1996 in einem klassischen iid-Modell von Donoho, Johnstone, Kerkyacharian und Picard konstruiert wurde. Unter gewissen Ergodizitätsvoraussetzungen an den Prozess können wir nichtparametrische Konvergenzraten angegeben, die bis auf einen logarithmischen Term den Raten im klassischen iid-Fall entsprechen. Diese Raten werden mit Hilfe von Orakel-Ungleichungen gezeigt, die auf Ergebnissen über Markovketten in diskreter Zeit von Clémencon, 2001, beruhen. Außerdem betrachten wir einen technisch einfacheren Spezialfall und zeigen einige Computersimulationen dieses Schätzers.

Assessment Of Dynamic Properties Of A Crowd Model For Human-Structure Interaction Modeling

As lightweight and slender structural elements are more frequently used in the design, large scale structures become more flexible and susceptible to excessive vibrations. To ensure the functionality of the structure, dynamic properties of the occupied structure need to be estimated during the design phase. Traditional analysis method models occupants simply as an additional mass; however, research has shown that human occupants could be better modeled as an additional degree-of- freedom. In the United Kingdom, active and passive crowd models are proposed by the Joint Working Group as a result of a series of analytical and experimental research. It is expected that the crowd models would yield a more accurate estimation to the dynamic response of the occupied structure. However, experimental testing recently conducted through a graduate student project at Bucknell University indicated that the proposed passive crowd model might be inaccurate in representing the impact on the structure from the occupants. The objective of this study is to provide an assessment of the validity of the crowd models proposed by JWG through comparing the dynamic properties obtained from experimental testing data and analytical modeling results. The experimental data used in this study was collected by Firman in 2010. The analytical results were obtained by performing a time-history analysis on a finite element model of the occupied structure. The crowd models were created based on the recommendations from the JWG combined with the physical properties of the occupants during the experimental study. During this study, SAP2000 was used to create the finite element models and to implement the analysis; Matlab and ME¿scope were used to obtain the dynamic properties of the structure through processing the time-history analysis results from SAP2000. The result of this study indicates that the active crowd model could quite accurately represent the impact on the structure from occupants standing with bent knees while the passive crowd model could not properly simulate the dynamic response of the structure when occupants were standing straight or sitting on the structure. Future work related to this study involves improving the passive crowd model and evaluating the crowd models with full-scale structure models and operating data.

Noninvasive estimation of organ weights by postmortem magnetic resonance imaging and multislice computed tomography

OBJECTIVE: Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are introduced as an alternative to traditional autopsy. The purpose of this study was to investigate their accuracy in mass estimation of liver and spleen. METHODS: In 44 cases, the weights of spleen and liver were estimated based on MRI and CT data using a volume-analysis software and a postmortem tissue-specific density factor. In a blinded approach, the results were compared with the weights noted at autopsy. RESULTS: Excellent correlation between estimated and real weights (r = 0.997 for MRI, r = 0.997 for CT) was found. Putrefaction gas and venous air embolism led to an overestimation. Venous congestion and drowning caused higher estimated weights. CONCLUSION: Postmortem weights of liver and spleen can accurately be assessed by nondestructive imaging. Multislice CT overcomes the limitation of putrefaction and venous air embolism by the possibility to exclude gas. Congestion seems to be even better assessed.

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p < 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability < 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Laser Thomson scattering measurements of electron temperature and density in a Hall-effect plasma

Hall-effect thrusters (HETs) are compact electric propulsion devices with high specific impulse used for a variety of space propulsion applications. HET technology is well developed but the electron properties in the discharge are not completely understood, mainly due to the difficulty involved in performing accurate measurements in the discharge. Measurements of electron temperature and density have been performed using electrostatic probes, but presence of the probes can significantly disrupt thruster operation, and thus alter the electron temperature and density. While fast-probe studies have expanded understanding of HET discharges, a non-invasive method of measuring the electron temperature and density in the plasma is highly desirable. An alternative to electrostatic probes is a non-perturbing laser diagnostic technique that measures Thomson scattering from the plasma. Thomson scattering is the process by which photons are elastically scattered from the free electrons in a plasma. Since the electrons have thermal energy their motion causes a Doppler shift in the scattered photons that is proportional to their velocity. Like electrostatic probes, laser Thomson scattering (LTS) can be used to determine the temperature and density of free electrons in the plasma. Since Thomson scattering measures the electron velocity distribution function directly no assumptions of the plasma conditions are required, allowing accurate measurements in anisotropic and non-Maxwellian plasmas. LTS requires a complicated measurement apparatus, but has the potential to provide accurate, non-perturbing measurements of electron temperature and density in HET discharges. In order to assess the feasibility of LTS diagnostics on HETs non-invasive measurements of electron temperature and density in the near-field plume of a Hall thruster were performed using a custom built laser Thomson scattering diagnostic. Laser measurements were processed using a maximum likelihood estimation method and results were compared to conventional electrostatic double probe measurements performed at the same thruster conditions. Electron temperature was found to range from approximately 1 – 40 eV and density ranged from approximately 1.0 x 1017 m-3 to 1.3 x 1018 m-3 over discharge voltages from 250 to 450 V and mass flow rates of 40 to 80 SCCM using xenon propellant.

Low bone mineral density, renal dysfunction, and fracture risk in HIV infection: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Reduced bone mineral density (BMD) is common in adults infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The role of proximal renal tubular dysfunction (PRTD) and alterations in bone metabolism in HIV-related low BMD are incompletely understood. METHODS: We quantified BMD (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry), blood and urinary markers of bone metabolism and renal function, and risk factors for low BMD (hip or spine T score, -1 or less) in an ambulatory care setting. We determined factors associated with low BMD and calculated 10-year fracture risks using the World Health Organization FRAX equation. RESULTS: We studied 153 adults (98% men; median age, 48 years; median body mass index, 24.5; 67 [44%] were receiving tenofovir, 81 [53%] were receiving a boosted protease inhibitor [PI]). Sixty-five participants (42%) had low BMD, and 11 (7%) had PRTD. PI therapy was associated with low BMD in multivariable analysis (odds ratio, 2.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-6.63). Tenofovir use was associated with increased osteoblast and osteoclast activity (P< or = .002). The mean estimated 10-year risks were 1.2% for hip fracture and 5.4% for any major osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS: In this mostly male population, low BMD was significantly associated with PI therapy. Tenofovir recipients showed evidence of increased bone turnover. Measurement of BMD and estimation of fracture risk may be warranted in treated HIV-infected adults.

Calculation of crystal optical properties from molecular electron density

We have recently developed a method to obtain distributed atomic polarizabilities adopting a partitioning of the molecular electron density (for example, the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules, [1]), calculated with or without an applied electric field. The procedure [2] allows to obtained atomic polarizability tensors, which are perfectly exportable, because quite representative of an atom in a given functional group. Among the many applications of this idea, the calculation of crystal susceptibility is easily available, either from a rough estimation (the polarizability of the isolated molecule is used) or from a more precise estimation (the polarizability of a molecule embedded in a cluster representing the first coordination sphere is used). Lorentz factor is applied to include the long range effect of packing, which is enhancing the molecular polarizability. Simple properties like linear refractive index or the gyration tensor can be calculated at relatively low costs and with good precision. This approach is particularly useful within the field of crystal engineering of organic/organometallic materials, because it would allow a relatively easy prediction of a property as a function of the packing, thus allowing "reverse crystal engineering". Examples of some amino acid crystals and salts of amino acids [3] will be illustrated, together with other crystallographic or non-crystallographic applications. For example, the induction and dispersion energies of intermolecular interactions could be calculated with superior precision (allowing anisotropic van der Waals interactions). This could allow revision of some commonly misunderstood intermolecular interactions, like the halogen bonding (see for example the recent remarks by Stone or Gilli [4]). Moreover, the chemical reactivity of coordination complexes could be reinvestigated, by coupling the conventional analysis of the electrostatic potential (useful only in the circumstances of hard nucleophilic/electrophilic interaction) with the distributed atomic polarizability. The enhanced reactivity of coordinated organic ligands would be better appreciated. [1] R. F. W. Bader, Atoms in Molecules: A Quantum Theory. Oxford Univ. Press, 1990. [2] A. Krawczuk-Pantula, D. Pérez, K. Stadnicka, P. Macchi, Trans. Amer. Cryst. Ass. 2011, 1-25 [3] A. S. Chimpri1, M. Gryl, L. H.R. Dos Santos1, A. Krawczuk, P. Macchi Crystal Growth & Design, in the press. [4] a) A. J. Stone, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2013, 135, 7005−7009; b) V. Bertolasi, P. Gilli, G. Gilli Crystal Growth & Design, 2013, 12, 4758-4770.