Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part I : Forensic intelligence.

Forensic science is generally defined as the application of science to address questions related to the law. Too often, this view restricts the contribution of science to one single process which eventually aims at bringing individuals to court while minimising risk of miscarriage of justice. In order to go beyond this paradigm, we propose to refocus the attention towards traces themselves, as remnants of a criminal activity, and their information content. We postulate that traces contribute effectively to a wide variety of other informational processes that support decision making inmany situations. In particular, they inform actors of new policing strategies who place the treatment of information and intelligence at the centre of their systems. This contribution of forensic science to these security oriented models is still not well identified and captured. In order to create the best condition for the development of forensic intelligence, we suggest a framework that connects forensic science to intelligence-led policing (part I). Crime scene attendance and processing can be envisaged within this view. This approach gives indications abouthowto structure knowledge used by crime scene examiners in their effective practice (part II).

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Development and Implementation of an Expert System for Forecasting Fog on US Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, HR-357, 1996

Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

Molecular crime and cellular punishment: active detoxification of misfolded and aggregated proteins in the cell by the chaperone and protease networks.

Labile or mutation-sensitised proteins may spontaneously convert into aggregation-prone conformations that may be toxic and infectious. This hazardous behavior, which can be described as a form of "molecular criminality", can be actively counteracted in the cell by a network of molecular chaperone and proteases. Similar to law enforcement agents, molecular chaperones and proteases can specifically identify, apprehend, unfold and thus neutralize "criminal" protein conformers, allowing them to subsequently refold into harmless functional proteins. Irreversibly damaged polypeptides that have lost the ability to natively refold are preferentially degraded by highly controlled ATP-consuming proteases. Damaged proteins that escape proteasomal degradation can also be "incarcerated" into dense amyloids, "evicted" from the cell, or internally "exiled" to the lysosome to be hydrolysed and recycled. Thus, remarkable parallels exist between molecular and human forms of criminality, as well as in the cellular and social responses to various forms of crime. Yet, differences also exist: whereas programmed death is the preferred solution chosen by aged and aggregation-stressed cells, collective suicide is seldom chosen by lawless societies. Significantly, there is no cellular equivalent for the role of familial care and of education in general, which is so crucial to the proper shaping of functional persons in the society. Unlike in the cell, humanism introduces a bias against radical solutions such as capital punishment, favouring crime prevention, reeducation and social reinsertion of criminals.

A forensic science perspective on the role of images in crime investigation and reconstruction

This article presents a global vision of images in forensic science. The proliferation of perspectives on the use of images throughout criminal investigations and the increasing demand for research on this topic seem to demand a forensic science-based analysis. In this study, the definitions of and concepts related to material traces are revisited and applied to images, and a structured approach is used to persuade the scientific community to extend and improve the use of images as traces in criminal investigations. Current research efforts focus on technical issues and evidence assessment. This article provides a sound foundation for rationalising and explaining the processes involved in the production of clues from trace images. For example, the mechanisms through which these visual traces become clues of presence or action are described. An extensive literature review of forensic image analysis emphasises the existing guidelines and knowledge available for answering investigative questions (who, what, where, when and how). However, complementary developments are still necessary to demystify many aspects of image analysis in forensic science, including how to review and select images or use them to reconstruct an event or assist intelligence efforts. The hypothetico-deductive reasoning pathway used to discover unknown elements of an event or crime can also help scientists understand the underlying processes involved in their decision making. An analysis of a single image in an investigative or probative context is used to demonstrate the highly informative potential of images as traces and/or clues. Research efforts should be directed toward formalising the extraction and combination of clues from images. An appropriate methodology is key to expanding the use of images in forensic science.

Pilot Project for a Hybrid Road-Flooding Forecasting System on Squaw Creek, TR-642

A network of 25 sonic stage sensors were deployed in the Squaw Creek basin upstream from Ames Iowa to determine if the state-of-the-art distributed hydrological model CUENCAS can produce reliable information for all road crossings including those that cross small creeks draining basins as small as 1 sq. mile. A hydraulic model was implemented for the major tributaries of the Squaw Creek where IFC sonic instruments were deployed and it was coupled to CUENCAS to validate the predictions made at small tributaries in the basin. This study demonstrates that the predictions made by the hydrological model at internal locations in the basins are as accurate as the predictions made at the outlet of the basin. Final rating curves based on surveyed cross sections were developed for the 22 IFC-bridge sites that are currently operating, and routine forecast is provided at those locations (see IFIS). Rating curves were developed for 60 additional bridge locations in the basin, however, we do not use those rating curves for routine forecast because the lack of accuracy of LiDAR derived cross sections is not optimal. The results of our work form the basis for two papers that have been submitted for publication to the Journal of Hydrological Engineering. Peer review of our work will gives a strong footing to our ability to expand our results from the pilot Squaw Creek basin to all basins in Iowa.

Iowa Department of Justice, Attorney General's Office Crime Victim Assistance Division, Three Year Program Reports, December 2014

Three year program reports