Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Conjugacy of piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average

For piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average, we show that it admits a dichotomy: it is either periodic renormalizable or prime. As a result, such a map is conjugate to a ß-transformation.

High-throughput hydrophilic interaction chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry for the optimized quantification of the anti-Gram-negatives antibiotic colistin A/B and its pro-drug colistimethate.

Colistin is a last resort's antibacterial treatment in critically ill patients with multi-drug resistant Gram-negative infections. As appropriate colistin exposure is the key for maximizing efficacy while minimizing toxicity, individualized dosing optimization guided by therapeutic drug monitoring is a top clinical priority. Objective of the present work was to develop a rapid and robust HPLC-MS/MS assay for quantification of colistin plasma concentrations. This novel methodology validated according to international standards simultaneously quantifies the microbiologically active compounds colistin A and B, plus the pro-drug colistin methanesulfonate (colistimethate, CMS). 96-well micro-Elution SPE on Oasis Hydrophilic-Lipophilic-Balanced (HLB) followed by direct analysis by Hydrophilic Interaction Liquid Chromatography (HILIC) with Ethylene Bridged Hybrid - BEH - Amide phase column coupled to tandem mass spectrometry allows a high-throughput with no significant matrix effect. The technique is highly sensitive (limit of quantification 0.014 and 0.006μg/mL for colistin A and B), precise (intra-/inter-assay CV 0.6-8.4%) and accurate (intra-/inter-assay deviation from nominal concentrations -4.4 to +6.3%) over the clinically relevant analytical range 0.05-20μg/mL. Colistin A and B in plasma and whole blood samples are reliably quantified over 48h at room temperature and at +4°C (<6% deviation from nominal values) and after three freeze-thaw cycles. Colistimethate acidic hydrolysis (1M H2SO4) to colistin A and B in plasma was completed in vitro after 15min of sonication while the pro-drug hydrolyzed spontaneously in plasma ex vivo after 4h at room temperature: this information is of utmost importance for interpretation of analytical results. Quantification is precise and accurate when using serum, citrated or EDTA plasma as biological matrix, while use of heparin plasma is not appropriate. This new analytical technique providing optimized quantification in real-life conditions of the microbiologically active compounds colistin A and B offers a highly efficient tool for routine therapeutic drug monitoring aimed at individualizing drug dosing against life-threatening infections.

Exponentially small splitting of separatrices in the perturbed McMillan map

The McMillan map is a one-parameter family of integrable symplectic maps of the plane, for which the origin is a hyperbolic fixed point with a homoclinic loop, with small Lyapunov exponent when the parameter is small. We consider a perturbation of the McMillan map for which we show that the loop breaks in two invariant curves which are exponentially close one to the other and which intersect transversely along two primary homoclinic orbits. We compute the asymptotic expansion of several quantities related to the splitting, namely the Lazutkin invariant and the area of the lobe between two consecutive primary homoclinic points. Complex matching techniques are in the core of this work. The coefficients involved in the expansion have a resurgent origin, as shown in [MSS08].

Resurgence of inner solutions for perturbations of the McMillan map

A sequence of “inner equations” attached to certain perturbations of the McMillan map was considered in [MSS09], their solutions were used in that article to measure an exponentially small separatrix splitting. We prove here all the results relative to these equations which are necessary to complete the proof of the main result of [MSS09]. The present work relies on ideas from resurgence theory: we describe the formal solutions, study the analyticity of their Borel transforms and use ´Ecalle’s alien derivations to measure the discrepancy between different Borel-Laplace sums.

Creació automàtica de gràfics estadístics a partir de dades de soroll d’Europa amb tecnologies Open Source en el visor Noise Map Viewer de l’ETC-LUSI

El projecte ha consistit en la creació de gràfics estadístics de soroll d’Europa de forma automàtica amb tecnologies Open Source dins el visor Noise Map Viewer per Europa de l’ETC-LUSI. La llibreria utilitzada per fer aquest procés ha estat JFreeChart i el llenguatge de programació utilitzat ha estat Java (programació orientada a objectes) dins l’entorn de desenvolupament integrat Eclipse. La base de dades utilitzada ha estat PostgreSQL. Com a servidors s’han fet servir Apache (servidor HTTP) i Tomcat (servidor contenidor d’aplicacions). Un cop acabat el procés s’ha integrat dins de MapFish canviant el codi JavaScript corresponent de la web original.

Diseño, Desarrollo e Implementación de una aplicación WEB-MAP para la visualización y consulta de los proyectos ejecutados por AudingIntraesa

Consiste en el desarrollo de una aplicación WEB-MAP para la visualización y consulta de los proyectos ejecutados por AudingIntraesa. La tecnología utilizada fue MySQL como sistema de gestión de bases de datos, HTTP Apache como servidor web y Adobe Flex como entorno de desarrollo. Se creó una base de datos. Se diseñó una interfaz de usuario intuitiva, eficiente y atractiva. Se desarrollaron rutinas en AS3 para dotar de funcionalidades a la aplicación. Incluyen la consulta y actualización en tiempo de ejecución, descarga de ficheros externos, la fácil navegación por el mapa con capacidades de zoom, pan, cambio de mapas.

Towards the Physical Map of the Trypanosoma cruzi Nuclear Genome: Construction of YAC and BAC Libraries of the Reference Clone T. cruzi CL-Brener

Strategies to construct the physical map of the Trypanosoma cruzi nuclear genome have to capitalize on three main advantages of the parasite genome, namely (a) its small size, (b) the fact that all chromosomes can be defined, and many of them can be isolated by pulse field gel electrophoresis, and (c) the fact that simple Southern blots of electrophoretic karyotypes can be used to map sequence tagged sites and expressed sequence tags to chromosomal bands. A major drawback to cope with is the complexity of T. cruzi genetics, that hinders the construction of a comprehensive genetic map. As a first step towards physical mapping, we report the construction and partial characterization of a T. cruzi CL-Brener genomic library in yeast artificial chromosomes (YACs) that consists of 2,770 individual YACs with a mean insert size of 365 kb encompassing around 10 genomic equivalents. Two libraries in bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs) have been constructed, BACI and BACII. Both libraries represent about three genome equivalents. A third BAC library (BAC III) is being constructed. YACs and BACs are invaluable tools for physical mapping. More generally, they have to be considered as a common resource for research in Chagas disease

THE USE OF SIMULATIONS IN EVOLUTIONARY POPULATION GENETICS: APPLICATIONS ON HUMANS, OWLS AND VIRTUAL ORGANISMS

Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

MAP kinase pathways in UV-induced apoptosis of retinal pigment epithelium ARPE19 cells.

The retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) is constantly exposed to external injuries which lead to degeneration, dysfunction or loss of RPE cells. The balance between RPE cells death and proliferation may be responsible for several diseases of the underlying retina, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR). Signaling pathways able to control cells proliferation or death usually involve the MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinases) pathways, which modulate the activity of transcription factors by phosphorylation. UV exposure induces DNA breakdown and causes cellular damage through the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) leading to programmed cell death. In this study, human retinal pigment epithelial cells ARPE19 were exposed to 100 J/m(2) of UV-C and MAPK pathways were studied. We first showed the expression of the three major MAPK pathways. Then we showed that activator protein-1 (AP-1) was activated through phosphorylation of cJun and cFos, induced by JNK and p38, respectively. Specific inhibitors of both kinases decreased their respective activities and phosphorylation of their nuclear targets (cJun and cFos) and reduced UV-induced cell death. The use of specific kinases inhibitors may provide excellent tools to prevent RPE apoptosis specifically in RPE diseases involving ROS and other stress-related compounds such as in AMD.