Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during the last glacial period

Ninety-four sites worldwide have sufficient resolution and dating to document the impact of millennial-scale climate variability on vegetation and fire regimes during the last glacial period. Although Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles all show a basically similar gross structure, they vary in the magnitude and the length of the warm and cool intervals. We illustrate the geographic patterns in the climate-induced changes in vegetation by comparing D–O 6, D–O 8 and D–O 19. There is a strong response to both D–O warming events and subsequent cooling, most marked in the northern extratropics. Pollen records from marine cores from the northern extratropics confirm that there is no lag between the change in climate and the vegetation response, within the limits of the dating resolution (50–100 years). However, the magnitude of the change in vegetation is regionally specific and is not a simple function of either the magnitude or the duration of the change in climate as registered in Greenland ice cores. Fire regimes also show an initial immediate response to climate changes, but during cooling intervals there is a slow recovery of biomass burning after the initial reduction, suggesting a secondary control through the recovery of vegetation productivity. In the extratropics, vegetation changes are largely determined by winter temperatures while in the tropics they are largely determined by changes in plant-available water. Tropical vegetation records show changes corresponding to Heinrich Stadials but the response to D–O warming events is less marked than in the northern extratropics. There are very few high-resolution records from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, but these records also show both a vegetation and fire response to millennial-scale climate variability. It is not yet possible to determine unequivocally whether terrestrial records reflect the asynchroneity apparent in the ice-core records.

Ecophysiology of seed dormancy and the control of germination in early spring-flowering Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus (Amaryllidaceae)

Seed dormancy induction and alleviation in the winter-flowering moist temperate woodland species Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus are complex and poorly understood. Temperature, light and desiccation were investigated to elucidate their role in the germination ecophysiology of these species. Outdoor and laboratory experiments simulating different seasonal temperatures, seasonal durations, and temperature fluctuations; the presence of light during different seasons; and intermittent drying (during the summer period) over several ‘years’ investigated the importance of these factors in germination. Warm summer-like temperatures (20°C) were necessary for germination at subsequent cooler autumn-like temperatures (greatest at 15°C in G. nivalis and 10°C in N. pseudonarcissus). As the warm temperature duration increased so did germination at subsequent cooler temperatures; further germination occurred in subsequent ‘years’ at cooler temperatures following a second, and also third, warm period. Germination was significantly greater in darkness, particularly in G. nivalis. Dormancy increased with seed maturation period in G. nivalis, because seeds extracted from green capsules germinated more readily than those from yellow. Desiccation increased dormancy in an increasing proportion of N. pseudonarcissus seeds the later they were dried in ‘summer’. Seed viability was only slightly reduced by desiccation in N. pseudonarcissus but was poor and variable in G. nivalis. Shoot formation occurred both at the temperature at which germination was greatest and also if 5°C cooler. In summary, continuous hydration of seeds of both species during warm summer-like temperatures results in the gradual release of seed dormancy; thereafter, darkness and cooler temperatures promote germination. Cold temperatures, increased seed maturity (G. nivalis), and desiccation (N. pseudonarcissus) increase dormancy while light inhibits germination.

IMF control of cusp proton emission intensity and dayside convection: implications for component and anti-parallel reconnection

We study a brightening of the Lyman-alpha emission in the cusp which occurred in response to a short-lived southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during a period of strongly enhanced solar wind plasma concentration. The cusp proton emission is detected using the SI-12 channel of the FUV imager on the IMAGE spacecraft. Analysis of the IMF observations recorded by the ACE and Wind spacecraft reveals that the assumption of a constant propagation lag from the upstream spacecraft to the Earth is not adequate for these high time-resolution studies. The variations of the southward IMF component observed by ACE and Wind allow for the calculation of the ACE-to-Earth lag as a function of time. Application of the derived propagation delays reveals that the intensity of the cusp emission varied systematically with the IMF clock angle, the relationship being particularly striking when the intensity is normalised to allow for the variation in the upstream solar wind proton concentration. The latitude of the cusp migrated equatorward while the lagged IMF pointed southward, confirming the lag calculation and indicating ongoing magnetopause reconnection. Dayside convection, as monitored by the SuperDARN network of radars, responded rapidly to the IMF changes but lagged behind the cusp proton emission response: this is shown to be as predicted by the model of flow excitation by Cowley and Lockwood (1992). We use the numerical cusp ion precipitation model of Lockwood and Davis (1996), along with modelled Lyman-_ emission efficiency and the SI-12 instrument response, to investigate the effect of the sheath field clock angle on the acceleration of ions on crossing the dayside magnetopause. This modelling reveals that the emission commences on each reconnected field line 2–2.5min after it is opened and peaks 3–5 min after it is opened. We discuss how comparison of the Lyman-alpha intensities with oxygen emissions observed simultaneously by the SI-13 channel of the FUV instrument offers an opportunity to test whether or not the clock angle dependence is consistent with the “component” or the “anti-parallel” reconnection hypothesis.

Solar wind control of magnetospheric energy content: substorm quenching and multiple onsets

In this paper we report coordinated multispacecraft and ground-based observations of a double substorm onset close to Scandinavia on November 17, 1996. The Wind and the Geotail spacecraft, which were located in the solar wind and the subsolar magnetosheath, respectively, recorded two periods of southward directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). These periods were separated by a short northward IMF excursion associated with a solar wind pressure pulse, which compressed the magnetosphere to such a degree that Geotail for a short period was located outside the bow shock. The first period of southward IMF initiated a substorm growth. phase, which was clearly detected by an array of ground-based instrumentation and by Interball in the northern tail lobe. A first substorm onset occurred in close relation to the solar wind pressure pulse impinging on the magnetopause and almost simultaneously with the northward turning of the IMF. However, this substorm did not fully develop. In clear association with the expansion of the magnetosphere at the end of the pressure pulse, the auroral expansion was stopped, and the northern sky cleared. We will present evidence that the change in the solar wind dynamic pressure actively quenched the energy available for any further substorm expansion. Directly after this period, the magnetometer network detected signatures of a renewed substorm growth phase, which was initiated by the second southward turning of the IMF and which finally lead to a second, and this time complete, substorm intensification. We have used our multipoint observations in order to understand the solar wind control of the substorm onset and substorm quenching. The relative timings between the observations on the various satellites and on the ground were used to infer a possible causal relationship between the solar wind pressure variations and consequent substorm development. Furthermore, using a relatively simple algorithm to model the tail lobe field and the total tail flux, we show that there indeed exists a close relationship between the relaxation of a solar wind pressure pulse, the reduction of the tail lobe field, and the quenching of the initial substorm.

Interplanetary magnetic field control of dayside auroral activity and the transfer of momentum across the dayside magnetopause

The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) during transient bursts of ionospheric flow and auroral activity in the dayside auroral ionosphere is studied, using data from the EISCAT radar, meridian-scanning photometers, and an all-sky TV camera, in conjunction with simultaneous observations of the interplanetary medium by the IMP-8 satellite. It is found that the ionospheric flow and auroral burst events occur regularly (mean repetition period equal to 8.3 ± 0.6 min) during an initial period of about 45 min when the IMF is continuously and strongly southward in GSM coordinates, consistent with previous observations of the occurrence of transient dayside auroral activity. However, in the subsequent 1.5 h, the IMF was predominantly northward, and only made brief excursions to a southward orientation. During this period, the mean interval between events increased to 19.2 ± 1.7 min. If it is assumed that changes in the North-South component of the IMF are aligned with the IMF vector in the ecliptic plane, the delays can be estimated between such a change impinging upon IMP-8 and the response in the cleft ionosphere within the radar field-of-view. It is found that, to within the accuracy of this computed lag, each transient ionospheric event during the period of predominantly northward IMF can be associated with a brief, isolated southward excursion of the IMF, as observed by IMP-8. From this limited period of data, we therefore suggest that transient momentum exchange between the magnetosheath and the ionosphere occurs quasi-periodically when the IMF is continuously southward, with a mean period which is strikingly similar to that for Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) at the magnetopause. During periods of otherwise northward IMF, individual momentum transfer events can be triggered by brief swings to southward IMF. Hence under the latter conditions the periodicity of the events can reflect a periodicity in the IMF, but that period will always be larger than the minimum value which occurs when the IMF is strongly and continuously southward.

Thermospheric Control of the Auroral Source of O+Ions for the Magnetosphere

Linear theory, model ion-density profiles and MSIS neutral thermospheric predictions are used to investigate the stability of the auroral, topside ionosphere to oxygen cyclotron waves: variations of the critical height, above which the plasma is unstable, with field-aligned current, thermal ion density and exospheric temperature are considered. In addition, probabilities are assessed that interactions with neutral atomic gases prevent O+ ions from escaping into the magnetosphere after they have been transversely accelerated by these waves. The two studies are combined to give a rough estimate of the total O+ escape flux as a function of the field-aligned current density for an assumed rise in the perpendicular ion temperature. Charge exchange with neutral oxygen, not hydrogen, is shown to be the principle limitation to the escape of O+ ions, which occurs when the waves are driven unstable down to low altitudes. It is found that the largest observed field-aligned current densities can heat a maximum of about 5×1014 O+ ions m−2 to a threshold above which they are subsequently able to escape into the magnetosphere in the following 500s. Averaged over this period, this would constitute a flux of 1012 m−2 s−1 and in steady-state the peak outflow would then be limited to about 1013 m−2 s−1 by frictional drag on thermal O+ at lower altitudes. Maximum escape is at low plasma density unless the O+ scale height is very large. The outflow decreases with decreasing field-aligned current density and, to a lesser extent, with increasing exospheric temperature. Upward flowing ion events are evaluated as a source of O+ ions for the magnetosphere and as an explanation of the observed solar cycle variation of ring current O+ abundance.

Development of speech fluency over a short period of time: effects of pedagogic intervention

This study investigates the effects of a short-term pedagogic intervention on the development of L2 fluency among learners studying English for Academic purposes (EAP) at a university in the UK. It also examines the interaction between the development of fluency, and complexity and accuracy. Through a pre-test, post-test design, data were collected over a period of four weeks from learners performing monologic tasks. While the Control Group (CG) focused on developing general speaking and listening skills, the Experimental Group (EG) received awareness-raising activities and fluency strategy training in addition to general speaking and listening practice i.e following the syllabus. The data, coded in terms of a range of measures of fluency, accuracy and complexity, were subjected to repeated measures MANOVA, t-tests and correlations. The results indicate that after the intervention, while some fluency gains were achieved by the CG, the EG produced statistically more fluent language demonstrating a faster speech and articulation rate, longer runs and higher phonation time ratios. The significant correlations obtained between measures of accuracy and learners’ pauses in the CG suggest that pausing opportunities may have been linked to accuracy. The findings of the study have significant implications for L2 pedagogy, highlighting the effective impact of instruction on the development of fluency.

Drinking water application of Denargard Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diar- rhoea, increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no de- finitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challenged with B. pilosicoli strain B2904 with three oral doses two days apart. All birds were colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to ap- proaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the ef- fectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Drinking water application of Denagard® Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diarrhoea,increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no definitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challengedwith B. pilosicoli strain B2904with three oral doses two days apart. All birdswere colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to approaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the effectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Argo real-time quality control intercomparison

The real-time quality control (RTQC) methods applied to Argo profiling float data by the United Kingdom (UK) Met Office, the United States (US) Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Coriolis Centre are compared and contrasted. Data are taken from the period 2007 to 2011 inclusive and RTQC performance is assessed with respect to Argo delayed-mode quality control (DMQC). An intercomparison of RTQC techniques is performed using a common data set of profiles from 2010 and 2011. The RTQC systems are found to have similar power in identifying faulty Argo profiles but to vary widely in the number of good profiles incorrectly rejected. The efficacy of individual QC tests are inferred from the results of the intercomparison. Techniques to increase QC performance are discussed.

EGFR is involved in control of gastric cell proliferation through activation of MAPK and Src signalling pathways in early-weaned rats

Objectives: Early weaning (EW) increases proliferation of the gastric epithelium in parallel with higher expression of transforming growth factor alpha and its receptor epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). The primary objective of the present study was to examine involvement of EGFR signalling in regulating mucosal cell proliferation during the early weaning period. Materials and methods: Fifteen-day-old rats were split into two groups: suckling (control) and EW, in which pups were separated from the dam. Animals were killed daily until the 18th day, 3 days after onset of treatment. To investigate the role of EGFR in proliferation control, EW pups were injected with AG1478, an EGFR inhibitor; signalling molecules, proliferative indices and cell cycle-related proteins were evaluated. Results: EW increased ERK1/2 and Src phosphorylation at 17 days, but p-Akt levels were unchanged. Moreover, at 17 days, AG1478 administration impaired ERK phosphorylation, whereas p-Src and p-Akt were not altered. AG1478 treatment reduced mitotic and DNA synthesis indices, which were determined on HE-stained and BrdU-labelled sections. Finally, AG1478 injection decreased p21 levels in the gastric mucosa at 17 days, while no changes were detected in p27, cyclin E, CDK2, cyclin D1 and CDK4 concentrations. Conclusions: EGFR is part of the mechanism that regulates cell proliferation in rat gastric mucosa during early weaning. We suggest that such responses might depend on activation of MAPK and/or Src signalling pathways and regulation of p21 levels.

HOST-MEDIATED INDUCTION OF alpha-AMYLASES BY LARVAE OF THE MEXICAN BEAN WEEVIL Zabrotes subfasciatus (COLEOPTERA: CHRYSOMELIDAE: BRUCHINAE) IS IRREVERSIBLE AND OBSERVED FROM THE INITIATION OF THE FEEDING PERIOD

Larvae of Zabrotes subfasciatus secrete alpha-amylases that are insensitive to the alpha-amylase inhibitor found in seeds of Phaseolus vulgaris. By analyzing amylase activities during larval development on P. vulgaris, we detected activity of the constitutive amylase and the two inducible amylase isoforms at all stages. When larvae were transferred from the non alpha-amylase inhibitor containing seeds of Vigna unguiculata to P. vulgaris, the inducible alpha-amylases were expressed at the same level as in control larvae fed on P. vulgaris. Interestingly, when larvae were transferred from seeds of P. vulgaris to those of V. unguiculata, inducible alpha-amylases continued to be expressed at a level similar to that found in control larvae fed P. vulgaris continuously. When 10-day-old larvae were removed from seeds of V. unguiculata and transferred into capsules containing flour of P. vulgaris cotyledons, and thus maintained until completing 17 days ( age when the larvae stopped feeding), we could detect higher activity of the inducible alpha-amylases. However, when larvae of the same age were transferred from P. vulgaris into capsules containing flour of V. unguiculata, the inducible alpha-amylases remained up-regulated. These results suggest that the larvae of Z. subfasciatus have the ability to induce insensitive amylases early in their development. A short period of feeding on P. vulgaris cotyledon flour was sufficient to irreversibly induce the inducible alpha-amylase isoforms. Incubations of brush border membrane vesicles with the alpha-amylase inhibitor 1 from P. vulgaris suggest that the inhibitor is recognized by putative receptors found in the midgut microvillar membranes. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Electoral control in the presence of gridlocks

This article presents a game-theoretic partisan model of voting and political bargaining. In a two-period setup, voters ¯rst elect an executive incumbent and the legislators from a pool of candidates belonging to di®erent parties. Once elected, the executive and the legislature bargain over a budget. Party origin and a relevant parameter of the economy, the state of the world, in°uence the bargaining cost, such that political gridlocks may occur. At the end of the ¯rst period voters observe the outcome of bargaining but do not observe the true estate of the world, and decide whether or not to reelect the same parties for the Executive and the Legislature. The model con¯rms the very recent literature by showing that voters tend to have more °exible reelection criteria when they believe the true state of the world is likely to be unfavorable. On the other hand, when voters believe the true state of the world is likely to be favorable, they become more demanding in order to reelect the incumbents. In particular, there will be government shutdown with positive probability in equilibrium. Gridlocks occur due to the imperfect information of voters and they constitute indeed an information revelation mechanism that improves electoral control in the second period.

Acute and chronic toxicity of sediment samples from Guanabara Bay (RJ) during the rainy period

A Baía de Guanabara é um ambiente marinho-estuarino de grande relevância ecológica e sócio-econômica, e sujeita a uma ampla gama de impactos ambientais. O sedimento é o principal destino para a maioria das substâncias introduzidas nos corpos d'água, podendo fornecer uma medida integrada da qualidade ambiental, a qual pode ser avaliada por várias abordagens. Neste projeto, a qualidade de sedimentos da Baía de Guanabara foi por uma abordagem ecotoxicológica, por meio de testes de toxicidade aguda de sedimento integral, utilizando Tiburonella viscana, e testes de toxicidade crônica de água intersticial, elutriato e interface sedimento-água, utilizando embriões de Lytechinus variegatus. Os sedimentos foram coletados em 14 estações de amostragem. Nos testes crônicos houve efeitos significativos na maioria das amostras, enquanto os sedimentos coletados nas estações 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 e 15 apresentaram também toxicidade aguda. Houve grande concordância entre os resultados dos diferentes testes, e sua integração mostrou que os sedimentos analisados encontram-se inadequados à vida aquática, indicando degradação ambiental na baía da Guanabara. Nesse contexto, o controle das fontes poluidoras e o gerenciamento dos múltiplos usos da baía devem ser implementados, no sentido da melhora da qualidade ambiental.