The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

Skovgaard`s adjustment to likelihood ratio tests in exponential family nonlinear models

Likelihood ratio tests can be substantially size distorted in small- and moderate-sized samples. In this paper, we apply Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-321] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic to exponential family nonlinear models. We show that the adjustment term has a simple compact form that can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately distributed as X(2) with high degree of accuracy. It is applicable in wide generality since it allows both the parameter of interest and the nuisance parameter to be vector-valued. Unlike the modified profile likelihood ratio statistic obtained from Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R., Reid, N., 1987. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. journal of the Royal Statistical Society B49, 1-39], the adjusted statistic proposed here does not require an orthogonal parameterization. Numerical comparison of likelihood-based tests of varying dispersion favors the test we propose and a Bartlett-corrected version of the modified profile likelihood ratio test recently obtained by Cysneiros and Ferrari [Cysneiros, A.H.M.A., Ferrari, S.L.P., 2006. An improved likelihood ratio test for varying dispersion in exponential family nonlinear models. Statistics and Probability Letters 76 (3), 255-265]. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategies which aim to positively impact on weight, physical activity, diet and sedentary behaviours in children from zero to five years. A systematic review of the literature

Preventing the development of obesity in children is an international health priority. To assess the effectiveness of interventions designed to prevent obesity, promote healthy eating and/or physical activity and/or to reduce sedentary behaviours in 0–5-year-old children, a systematic review of the literature was performed. Literature searches were limited to articles published between January 1995 and June 2006, printed in English and sampling children aged 0–5-years. Searches excluded literature concerned with breastfeeding, eating disorders, and interventions which were school-based or concerned with obesity treatment. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study strengths and weaknesses. Nine included studies were grouped based on the settings in which they were delivered. Most studies involved multi-approach interventions, were conducted in the USA and varied in study designs and quality. All showed some level of effectiveness on at least one obesity-behaviour in young children. These studies support, at a range of levels, the premise that parents are receptive to and capable of some behavioural changes that may promote healthy weight in their young children. The small quantity of research heralds the need, particularly given the potential for early intervention to have long-lasting impacts on individual and population health, to build in a substantial way upon this evidence base.

Is the perception of time pressure a barrier to healthy eating and physical activity among women?

Objectives To describe the proportion of women reporting time is a barrier to healthy eating and physical activity, the characteristics of these women and the perceived causes of time pressure, and to examine associations between perceptions of time as a barrier and consumption of fruit, vegetables and fast food, and physical activity.
Design A cross-sectional survey of food intake, physical activity and perceived causes of time pressure.
Setting A randomly selected community sample.
Subjects A sample of 1580 women self-reported their food intake and their perceptions of the causes of time pressure in relation to healthy eating. An additional 1521 women self-reported their leisure-time physical activity and their perceptions of the causes of time pressure in relation to physical activity.
Results Time pressure was reported as a barrier to healthy eating by 41 % of the women and as a barrier to physical activity by 73 %. Those who reported time pressure as a barrier to healthy eating were significantly less likely to meet fruit, vegetable and physical activity recommendations, and more likely to eat fast food more frequently.
Conclusions Women reporting time pressure as a barrier to healthy eating and physical activity are less likely to meet recommendations than are women who do not see time pressure as a barrier. Further research is required to understand the perception of time pressure issues among women and devise strategies to improve women’s food and physical activity behaviours.

Is life history a barrier to dispersal? Contrasting patterns of genetic differentiation along an oceanographically complex coast

Extreme variation in early life-history strategies is considered a moderately good predictor of genetic subdivision and hence dispersal for a range of marine species. In reality, however, a good deal of population differentiation must reflect historical effects, more subtle variation in life histories, and, particularly, the interaction of larvae with oceanographic processes. Using a combination of allozyme and microsatellite markers, we show that the large-scale genetic structure of populations of three species (direct and planktonically developing cushion stars and a planktonic developing sea anemone that is also asexually viviparous) varies consistently, in line with the predicted capacity for dispersal within three geographic regions. We detected high levels of genetic subdivision for the direct developing cushion star (FST = 0.6), low levels for the planktonically developing cushion star (FST = 0.009), and intermediate levels for the sexual/asexual sea anmone (FST = 0.19). These patterns are exhibited despite the highly variable patterns of current movement and the presence of biogeographic barriers. Our results suggest that, although there is large scale genetic differentiation for two species, patterns of population connectivity are remarkably consistent within major regions and do not reflect variation in major oceanographic processes or genetic discontinuity coincident with biogeographic boundaries.

A novel romance : conceptualising emotional attachment as a barrier to adoption

The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) aims to understand consumers’ adoption of new technologies. Some 30 years after TAM was first proposed, it is still widely used today. This paper proposes an extended version of the TAM, with the primary addition to it being the construct of consumers’ emotional attachment to an existing product. The expanded TAM, Technology Acceptance Model with Emotional Attachment (TAME), is applied to the understudied area of e-book reader technology and its adoption by consumers who read for pleasure versus for academic purposes, as has been the focus of past research on e-book readers. The extended model considers consumers’ emotional attachment to paper books (pbooks) as a likely barrier to the take up of e-book reader technology.

Mid-Holocene (4200 kyr BP) mass mortalities in Mauritius (Mascarenes): insular vertebrates resilient to climatic extremes but vulnerable to human impact

In the light of the currently increasing drought frequency and water scarcity on oceanic islands, it is crucial for the conservation of threatened insular vertebrates to assess how they will be affected. A 4000 yr old fossil assemblage in the Mare Aux Songes (MAS), southwest Mauritius, Mascarene Islands, contains bones of 100 000+ individual vertebrates, dominated by two species of giant tortoises Cylindraspis triserrata and C. inepta, the dodo Raphus cucullatus, and 20 other vertebrate species (Rijsdijk, Hume, Bunnik, Florens, Baider, Shapiro et al. (2009) Mid-Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte on oceanic island Mauritius provides a window into the ecosystem of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus). Quaternary Science Reviews 28: 14–24). Nine radiocarbon dates of bones statistically overlap and suggest mass mortality occurred between 4235 and 4100 cal. yr BP. The mortality period coincides with a widely recognized megadrought event. Our multidisciplinary investigations combining geological, paleontological and hydrological evidence suggests the lake was located in a dry coastal setting and had desiccated during this period. Oxygen isotope data from a Uranium-series dated stalagmite from Rodrigues, an island 560 km east of Mauritius, supports this scenario by showing frequently alternating dry and wet periods lasting for decades between 4122 and 2260 cal. yr BP. An extreme drought resulted in falling water-tables at MAS and elsewhere on the island, perhaps deprived these insular vertebrates of fresh water, which led to natural mass mortalities and possibly to extirpations. In spite of these events, all insular species survived until at least the seventeenth century, confirming their resistance to climatic extremes. Despite this, the generally exponential increase of combined human impacts on islands including loss of geodiversity, habitats, and stocks of fresh water, there will be less environmental safe-haven options for insular endemic and native vertebrates during future megadrought conditions; and therefore will be more prone to extinction.

What does a museum mean? A narrative approach to museum impact

This paper presents ‘narrative’ as a theoretically informed qualitative perspective to explore and substantiate such abstract concept as ‘museum impact’. It argues that the impact of museums is best understood via the meanings visitors make and negotiate in the long-term. This provides critical insights into what a museum visit means and how its impact is negotiated within time and space. I lay out the theoretical rationale and methodological approach for the research project underpinning this paper while future publications will provide empirical findings and theoretical conclusions.

Is the valuer the barrier to identifying the value of sustainability?

Purpose - Broad-scale investment in sustainability is limited due to the lack of evidence of the relationship between sustainability and the property’s market value. Although evidence is amassing and being analyzed through advanced modeling, this evidence is not being reflected in the valuation process. Valuers have a pivotal role in financial markets, in the reporting of asset values. Consequently, they are the current barrier in large-scale investment in sustainability, due to their lack of reporting or consideration of sustainability in the valuation process.

Design/methodology/approach - This research investigates, in the Australian context, whether valuers’ are incorporating sustainability as a consideration in the valuation process and their depth of reporting on it. Further, the research investigates whether valuers’ have the knowledge and skills to accurately report on sustainability in the valuation process. This research used an online survey to gather responses from valuers around Australia, using a combination of structured and semi-structured questions.

Findings - This paper has identified that valuers are identifying a value relationship between sustainability and market value, and clearly emphasizing that they are not the barrier to this relationship from a lack of inclusion in valuation practice. However, what this research has identified is that although valuers are acknowledging sustainability in their practice, they maybe inhibiting further investment in sustainability due to inaccurate or misjudged assessments of sustainability in valuations.

Practical implications - The research highlights the implications for the broader market and the valuation profession, as a result of the valuers’ current lack of knowledge, skills and ability to incorporate or consider sustainability in the valuation process. The potential for inaccurate knowledge regarding sustainability being incorporated in the valuation process is very high, and could potentially have litigious issues in the future.

Originality/value - The research has highlighted that although valuers are beginning to consider sustainability at some level in the valuation process, their current knowledge of sustainability and its implications to long term viability is limited and in some cases grossly inaccurate. Consequently, this research has identified there is an imperative requirement for investigation into appropriate, accurate knowledge development in the field of sustainability for the valuation profession.

Alternative saline solutions to float foraminiferal tests

Flotation has been widely used in studies of recent foraminifera in order to concentrate tests and save time during picking. In this paper, four flotation agents with different densities were compared: (1) trichloroethylene, TCE (C2HCl3), with a density of 1.46 g mL(-1); (2) sodium nitrate/sodium thiosulfate solution, SNT (NaNO3 + Na2O3S2 center dot 5H(2)O), with a density of 1.46 g mL(-1); (3) zinc chloride Solution, ZC (ZHCl(2)), with a density of 1.70 g mL(-1); and (4) sodium polytungstate solution, SPT (3Na(2)WO(4) center dot 9WO(3) center dot 5H(2)O), with a density of 2.50 g mL(-1). Comparison was carried out by means of qualitative and quantitative data. Results showed that ZC and SPT were the best flotation agents, recovering 91% and 96% of the total tests, respectively, whereas TCE and SNT recovered 59.1% and 72.8%, respectively. Both quantitative and qualitative results significantly improved with a higher density of the flotation liquid. Therefore, substitution of TCE with ZC or SPT solutions is strongly encouraged, because they are, additionally, less harmful to health and the environment. ZC is the most cost-effective, since its results were not significantly different from those of the SPT treatment. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) was not considered in this comparative study, because it has been banned in many countries and it is highly harmful to health and the environment.

Determination of the maximum force due to skull impact in fights between sheep of the Ovis aries species

The present article presents a means of determining the maximum impact force between two bodies from the determination of the involved impulse in the impact and the sound emitted by the shock of the bodies during this impact.It also presents a case study applied to the shock between the skulls of male sheep of the Ovis aries species. These animals do not possess horns and dispute the territorial leadership by fighting, during which the skull is used as a weapon of attack, similar to a battering ram.Initially, a revision of basic physics approaching the theory of impulse is made, which shows that the average force during an impact can be obtained by the quantity of movement of the bodies. In its turn, the quantity of movement is obtained through the average speed of approach and the mass of the bodies. The maximum force is obtained from the average force, using the approach of the Force X Time curve with the Sonorous Intensity X Time Curve.In order to study the case of a shock between two sheep, the mass of the bodies was obtained through direct weighing and the average speed of approach obtained indirectly through filming, thus making possible the calculation of the average force. The Sonorous Intensity X Time Curve was obtained through the recording of the sound of the impact during a filmed fight, with later manipulation through computer programs. With this data the maximum force exercised between the skull of the sheep during the impact was obtained, which will be used in later studies.